I’ve been following the virus for 60 weeks now now. Originally I thought that it would be very limited, but that changed about 58 weeks ago, when the numbers began to rise and we found out more about it. The infected seem to consist of a lot that are in recovery, official active cases currently 20% but more likely 10%, increasing at a rate of 0.4% per day, but does’t seem to push the continuity risk to the average population above around about 2.2% mortality if you contract the disease. Actual numbers are probably about 1.5X the recorded ones for cases, a figure that comes from about 1.57 billion tests being taken on about 11% of the worlds population, a number of countries now having tested virtually all of their population. Its likely that we are seeing the effects of various mutations in countries rather than a single one. The rate has been pretty consistent since most countries locked down and the effects of this took place since May. The moving average of active and infective cases suggest that the world as a whole under lockdown has an ‘R’ rate of about 1.05, so there is little chance of it being controlled even with current vaccines for at least 8 months, possibly years if the logistics are wrong. Currently the numbers will probably double every 13 weeks and keep on reoccurring or inititiating in each country. Given mutations by numbers, it is probable that any country will need to stay in lockdown and isolate for the next couple of years to avoid it. Since circumstances have not changed much over the last 8 months the likelihood of catching the disease is therefore now probably around 92% at some time, so all that can probably be done is to manage and delay. There have been 6 major variants that have occurred in the first 112 million cases (1.5%) over a period of 16 months, of which 3 are worrying in respect of vaccines and long term immunity.

Current Status:

This is a continuation of Coronavirus Risks 5, a continuation of the original posts, Coronavirus Risks 4, Coronavirus Risks 3, Coronavirus Risks and Coronavirus Risks 2 that were also getting a bit long.

Rough approximation of Cases and deaths
4th UK Model without adjustments and
compensations. Error correction.
DateDayCase TrendDeath Trend
19/01/2021Tuesday370181407
20/01/2021Wednesday386371771
21/01/2021Thursday395781413
22/01/2021Friday452601449
23/01/2021Saturday336141466
24/01/2021Sunday31380760
25/01/2021Monday30516678
26/01/2021Tuesday300951594
27/01/2021Wednesday314122005
28/01/2021Thursday321771600
29/01/2021Friday367961641
30/01/2021Saturday273281660
31/01/2021Sunday27328860
01/02/2021Monday24809639
02/02/2021Tuesday244671501
03/02/2021Wednesday255381888
04/02/2021Thursday261591507
05/02/2021Friday299151545
06/02/2021Saturday222171563
07/02/2021Sunday20169559
08/02/2021Monday19892559
09/02/2021Tuesday207621560
10/02/2021Wednesday21267970

As of today, 18/01/2021, in the world there have been 95.9 million cases with about an estimated 13.7 million active cases, increasing at +2.39% per day, and 2.08 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 3.43 million cases and 89,860 deaths. It has an estimated 1.05 million known active cases. The US is reporting 24.7 million cases and 408,500 deaths with about 4.72 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.65%. As of 18/01/2020 there have been 65.1 million tests conducted in the UK, about 62.2 million antigen tests and 2.9 million antibody tests, 3.43 million positive of those 61 million processed, 5.62%, or 1 in 18 testing positive, 94.38%, 17 out of 18 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 30,000 and 47,000 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.18%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.62%. About 14.3% of known cases are still active in the world, 30.6% in the UK, 19.1% in the US. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 127,000 deaths and 5.2 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 80,000-182,000, 1.77 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.44%.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.91% for the world and 1.65% for the UK, the current figures being 2.12% for the world and 2.49% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures the average is 1.58% and the current figure is 1.54%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.8-2.12%, for the UK, 1.6-3% and for the US 1.2-2%.

So about 1.23% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 5.04% of the UK, and 7.46% of the US according to the approximate official estimates. An estimated 4.3 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 6 weeks ago, averaging 104.000 a day.

Highest infection rates for a large area or country is currently 12.6% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.23% of a population and still increasing. 25 countries have infection rates over 5%, and 11 countries have mortality rates over 5% of those infected, the average by country being 2.1%

Somebody asked what is likely over the next coming months in the UK? Without a working crystal ball I would guess that the numbers will continue to decrease in the UK by about 1/4 a week, the deaths doing similar after this time next week. I’m still working on my data files, but it’s taking a lot longer than planned and need to work to bring in the reddies.

As of today, 20/01/2021, in the world there have been 97 million cases with about an estimated 13.4 million active cases, increasing at +2.37% per day, and 2.09 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 3.51 million cases and 93,290 deaths. It has an estimated 1.02 million known active cases. The US is reporting 25 million cases and 412,400 deaths with about 4.51 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.65%. As of 20/01/2020 there have been 66.6 million tests conducted in the UK, about 63.7 million antigen tests and 2.9 million antibody tests, 3.51 million positive of those 62.1 million processed, 5.65%, or 1 in 18 testing positive, 94.35%, 17 out of 18 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 31,000 and 49,000 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.15%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.66%. About 13.8% of known cases are still active in the world, 29.1% in the UK, 16.5% in the US. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 132,000 deaths and 5.3 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 80,000-182,000, 1.77 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.49%.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.91% for the world and 1.66% for the UK, the current figures being 2.13% for the world and 2.35% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures the average is 1.58% and the current figure is 1.48%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.82-2.12%, for the UK, 1.65-3% and for the US 1.2-1.9%.

So about 1.24% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 5.16% of the UK, and 7.55% of the US according to the approximate official estimates. An estimated 5.16 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 6 weeks ago, averaging 120.000 a day.

Highest infection rates for a large area or country is currently 12.61% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.23% of a population and still increasing. 27 countries have infection rates over 5%, and 11 countries have mortality rates over 5% of those infected, the average by country being 2.1%

As of today, 22/01/2021, in the world there have been 98.7 million cases with about an estimated 13.9 million active cases, increasing at +2.36% per day, and 2.12 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 3.58 million cases and 95,981 deaths. It has an estimated 985,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 25.4 million cases and 424,000 deaths with about 4.49 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.67%. As of 22/01/2020 there have been 67.9 million tests conducted in the UK, about 65 million antigen tests and 2.9 million antibody tests, 3.58 million positive of those 63.5 million processed, 5.64%, or 1 in 18 testing positive, 94.36%, 17 out of 18 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 32,000 and 50,000 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.15%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.68%. About 14.1% of known cases are still active in the world, 27.5% in the UK, 17.7% in the US. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 136,000 deaths and 5.37 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 82,000-186,000, 1.79 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.53%.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.91% for the world and 1.67% for the UK, the current figures being 2.08% for the world and 2.17% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures the average is 1.58% and the current figure is 1.5%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.82-2.12%, for the UK, 1.68-3% and for the US 1.2-2%.

So about 1.27% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 5.26% of the UK, and 7.67% of the US according to the approximate official estimates. An estimated 5.5 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 6 weeks ago, averaging 122,000 a day.

Highest infection rates for a large area or country is currently 12.65% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.23% of a population and still increasing. 27 countries have infection rates over 5%, and 11 countries have mortality rates over 5% of those infected, the average by country being 2.1%.

The latest findings on the South East UK variant suggests that it may be 30% more deadlier. This is what would be expected from a variant that is 50% more infective. A person would probably get a higher viral load from a more infective version of a virus over a previous version, basically shifting the age/infirmity curve upwards, new variants becoming over time more efficient and over much longer periods more tolerated as generations are directly exposed to it. It’s unlikely any tolerance could be built up from not being exposed to it unless a cumulative resistance is bulit up from successive vaccinations over the years. It’s likely that current vaccines will be effective against this variant, but it can’t be guaranteed against the future ones that will most likely occur.

As of today, 25/01/2021, in the world there have been 100 million cases with about an estimated 13.5 million active cases, increasing at +2.34% per day, and 2.15 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 3.67 million cases and 98,531 deaths. It has an estimated 895,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 25.9 million cases and 431,000 deaths with about 4.34 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.66%. As of 25/01/2020 there have been 69.2 million tests conducted in the UK, about 66.3 million antigen tests and 2.9 million antibody tests, 3.67 million positive of those 64.4 million processed, 5.7%, or 1 in 18 testing positive, 94.3%, 17 out of 18 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 28,000 and 45,000 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.15%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.68%. About 13.5% of known cases are still active in the world, 24.4% in the UK, 16.8% in the US. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 139,000 deaths and 5.5 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 84,000-190,000, 1.83 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.53%.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.92% for the world and 1.68% for the UK, the current figures being 2.19% for the world and 2.37% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures the average is 1.58% and the current figure is 1.52%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.84-2.14%, for the UK, 1.69-3% and for the US. 1.2-2.1%.

So about 1.28% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 5.4% of the UK, and 7.8% of the US according to the approximate official estimates. An estimated 6.7 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 7 weeks ago, averaging 141,000 doses a day.

Highest infection rates for a large area or country is currently 12.71% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.24% of a population and still increasing. 27 countries have infection rates over 5%, and 10 countries have mortality rates over 5% of those infected, the average by country being 2.09%.

As of today, 27/01/2021, in the world there have been 101.4 million cases with about an estimated 13 million active cases, increasing at +2.33% per day, and 2.18 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 3.72 million cases and 101,900 deaths. It has an estimated 825,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 26.2 million cases and 440,000 deaths with about 4.19 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.68%. As of 27/01/2020 there have been 70.5 million tests conducted in the UK, about 67.6 million antigen tests and 2.9 million antibody tests, 3.72 million positive of those 65 million processed, 5.72%, or 1 in 17 testing positive, 94.28%, 16 out of 17 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 18,000 and 28,000 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.15%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.74%. About 12.8% of known cases are still active in the world, 22.2% in the UK, 16% in the US. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 142,000 deaths and 5.6 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 85,000-199,000, 1.88 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.54%.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.92% for the world and 1.69% for the UK, the current figures being 2.16% for the world and 2.36% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures the average is 1.58% and the current figure is 1.68%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.85-2.16%, for the UK, 1.69-3% and for the US. 1.3-2.1%.

So about 1.3% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 5.47% of the UK, and 7.9% of the US according to the approximate official estimates, but likely 1.95% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 8.21% of the UK, and 11.85% of the US. An estimated 7.5 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 7 weeks ago, averaging 146,000 doses a day. About 50% of the people in Israel have had a vaccine, 28% in the United Arab Emirates, 11% in the UK, 10% in Bahrain, 7% in the US, 2.5% in Germany and Italy, 2% in France and averaging less than 1% of the populations in other countries. Comparing change in mortality numbers compared to cases in Israel after 50% innoculation suggests large scale effectiveness of the vaccines used against the currently present variant seems to be around 60%.

Highest infection rates for a large area or country is currently 12.75% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.24% of a population and still increasing. 27 countries have infection rates over 5%, and 10 countries have mortality rates over 5% of those infected, the average by country being 2.09%.

As of today, 30/01/2021, in the world there have been 103.1 million cases with about an estimated 12.5 million active cases, increasing at +2.32% per day, and 2.18 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 3.8 million cases and 105,300 deaths. It has an estimated 750,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 26.7 million cases and 451,000 deaths with about 3.8 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.69%. As of 30/01/2020 there have been 72.7 million tests conducted in the UK, about 69.8 million antigen tests and 2.9 million antibody tests, 3.8 million positive of those 66.2 million processed, 5.74%, or 1 in 17 testing positive, 94.26%, 16 out of 17 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 20,000 and 31,000 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.16%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.77%. About 12.1% of known cases are still active in the world, 19.7% in the UK, 14.2% in the US. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 145,000 deaths and 5.7 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 87,000-200,000, 1.9 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.54%.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.92% for the world and 1.7% for the UK, the current figures being 2.07% for the world and 2.18% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures the average is 1.57% and the current figure is 1.6%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.85-2.1%, for the UK, 1.69-2.8% and for the US. 1.3-2%.

So about 1.32% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 5.59% of the UK, and 8.1% of the US according to the approximate official estimates, but likely 1.98% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 8.39% of the UK, and 12.2% of the US. An estimated 8.3 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 8 weeks ago, averaging 156,000 doses a day. About 53% of the people in Israel have had a vaccine, 30% in the United Arab Emirates, 12.3% in the UK, 10% in Bahrain, 7.9% in the US, 3% in Italy, 2.7% in Germany, 2% in France. Comparing change in mortality numbers compared to cases in Israel after 50% innoculation suggests large scale effectiveness of the vaccines used against the currently present variant seems to be around 60%.

Rough approximation of Cases and deaths
5th UK Model without adjustments and
compensations. Error correction.
DateDayCase TrendDeath Trend
30/01/2021Saturday251851545
31/01/2021Sunday22201641
01/02/2021Monday15584465
02/02/2021Tuesday133881219
03/02/2021Wednesday185901315
04/02/2021Thursday220151146
05/02/2021Friday210161018
06/02/2021Saturday204381066
07/02/2021Sunday16843450
08/02/2021Monday10079378
09/02/2021Tuesday8493893
10/02/2021Wednesday128741077
11/02/2021Thursday16781892
12/02/2021Friday15184737
13/02/2021Saturday15342865
14/02/2021Sunday12620350
15/02/2021Monday6798224
16/02/2021Tuesday5527537
17/02/2021Wednesday9187700
18/02/2021Thursday12837675
19/02/2021Friday10972532
20/02/2021Saturday12450649
21/02/2021Sunday9515259

As of today, 02/02/2021, in the world there have been 104.2 million cases with about an estimated 11.3 million active cases, increasing at +2.3% per day, and 2.26 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 3.85 million cases and 108,013 deaths. It has an estimated 620,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 27 million cases and 456,000 deaths with about 3.4 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.69%. As of 02/02/2020 there have been 74.6 million tests conducted in the UK, about 71.7 million antigen tests and 2.9 million antibody tests, 3.85 million positive of those 66.2 million processed, 5.16%, or 1 in 19 testing positive, 94.84%, 18 out of 19 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 14,000 and 22,000 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.17%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.8%. About 10.8% of known cases are still active in the world, 16% in the UK, 12.6% in the US. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 148,000 deaths and 5.8 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 89,000-200,000, 1.95 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.55%.

Using a different calculation, backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.6% for the world and 1.37% for the UK, the current figures being 1.99% for the world and 2.74% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.42% and the current figure is 1.52%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.27-2.35%, for the UK, 1.02-2.74% and for the US. 0.63-1.52%.

So about 1.34% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 5.7% of the UK, and 8.2% of the US according to the approximate official estimates, but likely 2% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 8.6% of the UK, and 12.3% of the US.

An estimated 10 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 8 weeks ago, averaging 180,000 doses a day over this period, but about 345,000 a day at the moment. About 58% of the people in Israel have had a vaccine, 35% in the United Arab Emirates, 15% in the UK, 10% in Bahrain, 10% in the US and 3.5% in the EU. At the current rates the most vulnerable in the UK should have had a vaccination by about end of April, the rest of the population by end of August, the US by about this time next year, and the EU about August next year. About 102 million vaccines have been given worldwide, the United States being a third of these and Europe a quarter, half of those in the UK.

Highest infection rates for a large area or country is currently 12.82% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.24% of a population and still increasing. 27 countries have infection rates over 5%, and 10 countries have mortality rates over 5% of those infected, the average by country being 2.09%.

Highest infection rates for a large area or country is currently 12.79% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.24% of a population and still increasing. 27 countries have infection rates over 5%, and 10 countries have mortality rates over 5% of those infected, the average by country being 2.09%.

As of today, 03/02/2021, in the world there have been 104.9 million cases with about an estimated 11.6 million active cases, increasing at +2.3% per day, and 2.28 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 3.87 million cases and 109,335 deaths. It has an estimated 640,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 27.2 million cases and 462,000 deaths with about 3.4 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.7%. As of 03/02/2020 there have been 75.1 million tests conducted in the UK, about 72.2 million antigen tests and 2.9 million antibody tests, 3.87 million positive of those 67.6 million processed, 5.7%, or 1 in 17 testing positive, 93%, 16 out of 17 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 14,500 and 23,000 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.17%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.83%. About 11.1% of known cases are still active in the world, 16.5% in the UK, 12.5% in the US. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 152,000 deaths and 5.81 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 90,000-200,000, 1.94 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.6%.

I’ve reverted back to the orginal backtracked mortality calculations as some of the figures didn’t make sense when compared to rest of world ones. Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.58% for the world and 1.81% for the UK, the current figures being 1.95% for the world and 3.05% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.42% and the current figure is 1.59%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.22-2.19%, for the UK, 0.95-3.05% and for the US. 0.63-3.29%.

So about 1.34% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 5.69% of the UK, and 8.22% of the US according to the approximate official estimates, but likely 2% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 8.6% of the UK, and 12.3% of the US.

An estimated 10.8 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 8 weeks ago, averaging 186,000 doses a day over this period, but about 320,000 a day at the moment. About 59% of the people in Israel have had a vaccine, 36% in the United Arab Emirates, 16% in the UK, 10.5% in Bahrain and the US, and 3.5% in the EU. At the current rates the most vulnerable in the UK should have had a vaccination by about end of April, the rest of the population by end of August, the US by about this time next year, and the EU about August next year. About 102 million vaccines have been given worldwide, the United States being a third of these and Europe a quarter, half of those in the UK.

Highest infection rates for a large area or country is currently 13% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.244% of a population and still increasing. 27 countries have infection rates over 5%, and 10 countries have mortality rates over 5% of those infected, the average by country being 2.1%.

Current Vaccination levels in UK:

Figures before January are estimated vaccination flows by current figures

As of today, 06/02/2021, in the world there have been 106.3 million cases with about an estimated 11 million active cases, increasing at +2.28% per day, and 2.28 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 3.93 million cases and 112,092 deaths. It has an estimated 530,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 27.5 million cases and 474,000 deaths with about 3.2 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.72%. As of 06/02/2020 there have been 76.8 million tests conducted in the UK, about 73.9 million antigen tests and 2.9 million antibody tests, 3.93 million positive of those 68.5 million processed, 5.7%, or 1 in 17 testing positive, 93%, 16 out of 17 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 15,000 and 24,000 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.14%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.85%. About 10.3% of known cases are still active in the world, 13.5% in the UK, 11.6% in the US. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 155,000 deaths and 5.9 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 92,000-202,000, 1.97 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.63%.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.66% for the world and 1.5% for the UK, the current figures being 2.2% for the world and 2.42% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.48% and the current figure is 1.31%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.2%, for the UK, 0.6-2.68% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

So about 1.36% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 5.78% of the UK, and 8.31% of the US according to the approximate official estimates, but likely 2% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 8.7% of the UK, and 12.5% of the US.

An estimated 12 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 9 weeks ago, averaging 209,000 doses a day over this period, but about 355,000 a day at the moment. About 62.5% of the people in Israel have had a vaccine, 40% in the United Arab Emirates, 19% in the UK, 12% in Bahrain, 11.5% in the US, and 3.9% in the EU. At the current rates the most vulnerable in the UK should have had a vaccination by about end of April, the rest of the population by end of August, the US by about this time next year, and the EU about July next year. About 125 million vaccines have been given worldwide, the United States being a third of these and Europe a quarter, half of those in the UK.

Highest infection rates for a large area or country is currently 13% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.247% of a population and still increasing. 28 countries have infection rates over 5%, and 10 countries have mortality rates over 5% of those infected, the average by country being 2.09%.

All eyes are on Israel, having the largest percentage of vaccinatiuons in the population at 62.5% to see the effect. If the vaccineas are as effective as proimised then the projected figures for Israel should look something like those below:

Israel projected at likely immunity rates
DateCasesDeaths
07/02/2021448063
08/02/2021815116
09/02/20217740118
10/02/2021801147
11/02/2021635947
12/02/2021457117
13/02/2021277921
14/02/2021472652
15/02/202171146
16/02/20217119234
17/02/2021683028
18/02/2021478132
19/02/202132229
20/02/2021143211
21/02/2021298131
22/02/202141582
23/02/20214700305
24/02/2021443914
25/02/2021331820
26/02/202124126
27/02/202110357
28/02/2021324829
01/03/202139621
02/03/20214866641
03/03/2021436910
04/03/2021314818
05/03/202122835
06/03/20218115
07/03/2021341827
08/03/202119490
09/03/20212557178
10/03/20212114133
11/03/2021144796
12/03/202199441
13/03/2021283130
14/03/20211480158
15/03/2021515195
16/03/2021623175
17/03/2021396126
18/03/202119091
19/03/20217632
20/03/20216137
21/03/20214478
22/03/20219102
23/03/20211385
24/03/2021858
25/03/2021440
26/03/2021211
27/03/2021059
28/03/2021221
29/03/2021025
30/03/2021016
31/03/202108
01/04/202103
02/04/202100
03/04/202102
04/04/202100
05/04/202101
06/04/202100

If the figures work out correctly for Israel then the likelihood is that the majority of the problems will be over as far as current strains by the start of April and things reverting to normal there. Using the same set of standards similar could be true for the UK by this time next year, and the US about June next year, the EU in 2 years. The majority of the problems would stop for Israel at the end of March, June for the UK, September for the US and December for the EU.

If new variants occur, and it’s surprising that none have appeared in India, Russia or Mexico, then it’s likely that an updated and combined Influenza/Covid 19(x) vaccine will need to be developed and administered from about December. Countries that are well on their way to innoculating most of their population will have a definite advantage when it comes around to the new seasonal flu injections as an uncombined one would reduce the numbers of one or the other injections over concurrent periods.

If there are no major replacement variants that the current vaccines don’t work on then the situation for the UK should probably look like the one below, the flu jab interfering with the subsequent second covid jab:

But if there is a new major variant say in April and one every year from then on, the situation may go to the one below, basically starting nearly from scratch each year:

The resources required are twice for the second situation as the first, but key is the amount of space between the purple and turqiose curves. By combining the two vaccinations you would get closer to the original chart and overall protection, so if it’s possible it should be something that is worked out earlier than later.

I think it very likely givent the current situation in the world that the dual covid injection is going to be required each year. At the end of the year the flu jabs are normally scheduled to start, but if a new set of injections are required the current 350,000 a day will either need to be reduced or the protection against seasonal influenza to be reduced or lengthened in scale, reducing the effectiveness, trading off one risk for another equivalent risk.

We may find with new variants that the current lockdowns and wait for vaccines may become a regular occurrence until a highly infective and higher mortality version occurs at some stage. SARS (10% mortality) and MERS (30% mortality) are very close relatives of Covid, but we were lucky they had low infection rates.

Plan A was to produce a vaccine and to innoculate as many people as fast as possible. A new variant may require a plan B. A lot of them, or a particularly dangerous one, a plan C. The Fat Lady may be preparing to sing, but the stage is creaking and the electrics are sparking.

As of today, 07/02/2021, in the world there have been 106.7 million cases with about an estimated 10.7 million active cases, increasing at +2.28% per day, and 2.33 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 3.95 million cases and 112,465 deaths. It has an estimated 510,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 27.6 million cases and 476,000 deaths with about 3.04 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.72%. As of 07/02/2020 there have been 77.5 million tests conducted in the UK, about 74.6 million antigen tests and 2.9 million antibody tests, 3.95 million positive of those 68.9 million processed, 5.7%, or 1 in 17 testing positive, 93%, 16 out of 17 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 15,000 and 23,000 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.18%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.85%. About 10% of known cases are still active in the world, 12.9% in the UK, 11% in the US. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 156,000 deaths and 5.93 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 93,000-203,000, 1.98 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.63%.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.66% for the world and 1.5% for the UK, the current figures being 1.82% for the world and 2.43% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.48% and the current figure is 1.45%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.2%, for the UK, 0.6-2.68% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

So about 1.37% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 5.81% of the UK, and 8.7% of the US according to the approximate official estimates, but likely 2.05% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 8.71% of the UK, and 12.51% of the US.

An estimated 13 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 9 weeks ago, averaging 215,000 doses a day over this period, but about 360,000 a day at the moment. About 63.2% of the people in Israel have had a vaccine, 40% in the United Arab Emirates, 19.1% in the UK, 12.1% in Bahrain, 11.8% in the US, and 4% in the EU. About 125 million vaccines have been given worldwide.

New variants are being produced all the time and most are trivial, but the situation is that 5 major variants have occurred within a period of 12 months, 2 of which current vaccines have less effect on. This agrees with an estimate of a new variant being produced every 20 cycles and/or 15 million cases. Two have shown signs of convergent or parallel evolution producing a more effective transmission characteristic. It would be typical of the natural world to use a statistical basis of non-intelligent natural selection to defeat intelligent defenses, malaria drugs and antibiotics being evident of this, possibly covid as well. You could almost imagine some super advanced race with super computers building messages into the DNA and RAN of living creatures, bacteria, phages and viruses for them to find it when they become able, the way viruses act like goal seeking subroutines, a sort of biological matrix.

As of today, 11/02/2021, in the world there have been 108.2 million cases with about an estimated 9.5 million active cases, increasing at +2.25% per day, and 2.38 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4 million cases and 115,529 deaths. It has an estimated 415,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 28 million cases and 487,000 deaths with about 2.47 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.74%. As of 11/02/2020 there have been 81.1 million tests conducted in the UK, about 77.9 million antigen tests and 3.2 million antibody tests, 4 million positive of those 70 million processed, 5.71%, or 1 in 17 testing positive, 92.9%, 16 out of 17 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 11,000 and 17,000 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.2%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.89%. About 8.8% of known cases are still active in the world, 10.4% in the UK, 8.8% in the US. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 160,500 deaths and 6 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 94,000-205,000, 2 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.68%.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.67% for the world and 1.53% for the UK, the current figures being 1.91% for the world and 2.48% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.48% and the current figure is 1.71%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.2%, for the UK, 0.6-2.68% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

So about 1.39% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 5.88% of the UK, and 8.5% of the US according to the approximate official estimates, but likely 2.08% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 8.8% of the UK, and 12.7% of the US.

An estimated 14.5 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 9 weeks ago, averaging 227,000 doses a day over this period, but about 426,000 a day at the moment. About 72% of the people in Israel have had a vaccine, 48.5% in the United Arab Emirates, 22% in the UK, 14% in the US, and 4.28% in the EU. About 151 million vaccines have been given worldwide.

As of today, 14/02/2021, in the world there have been 109.4 million cases with about an estimated 9 million active cases, increasing at +2.25% per day, and 2.41 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.04 million cases and 116,960 deaths. It has an estimated 360,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 28.3 million cases and 498,000 deaths with about 2.3 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.76%. As of 14/02/2020 there have been 82.9 million tests conducted in the UK, about 79.7 million antigen tests and 3.2 million antibody tests, 4.04 million positive of those 71.4 million processed, 5.66%, or 1 in 18 testing positive, 94.34%, 17 out of 18 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 10,000 and 17,000 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.2%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.9%. About 8.2% of known cases are still active in the world, 8.9% in the UK, 8.1% in the US. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 162,000 deaths and 6.1 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 94,000-200,000, 2.1 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.66%.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.67% for the world and 1.54% for the UK, the current figures being 1.85% for the world and 2.11% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.48% and the current figure is 1.54%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.2%, for the UK, 0.6-2.68% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

So about 1.4% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 5.94% of the UK, and 8.55% of the US according to the approximate official estimates, but likely 2.1% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 8.9% of the UK, and 12.8% of the US.

An estimated 15.9 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 10 weeks ago, averaging 238,000 doses a day over this period, but about 420,000 a day at the moment. About 73% of the people in Israel have had a vaccine, 51.6% in the United Arab Emirates, 23.9% in the UK, 15.7% in the US, 14.5% in Bahrain, and 5% in the EU.

Highest infection rates for a large area or country is currently 13.5% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.253% of a population and still increasing. 29 countries have infection rates over 5%, and 10 countries have mortality rates over 5% of those infected, the average by country being 2.09%.

As of today, 17/02/2021, in the world there have been 110.4 million cases with about an estimated 9 million active cases, increasing at +2.22% per day, and 2.44 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.07 million cases and 119,000 deaths. It has an estimated 350,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 28.5 million cases and 500,000 deaths with about 2 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.75%. As of 17/02/2020 there have been 84 million tests conducted in the UK, about 80.8 million antigen tests and 3.2 million antibody tests, 4.07 million positive of those 71.7 million processed, 5.68%, or 1 in 18 testing positive, 94.32%, 17 out of 18 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 8,000 and 13,000 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.2%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.9%. About 8.2% of known cases are still active in the world, 8.6% in the UK, 7% in the US. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 164,000 deaths and 6.1 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 95,000-200,000, 2 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.69%.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.67% for the world and 1.56% for the UK, the current figures being 2.03% for the world and 2.59% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.49% and the current figure is 1.75%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.2%, for the UK, 0.6-2.68% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

So about 1.42% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 6% of the UK, and 8.6% of the US according to the approximate official estimates, but likely 2.12% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9% of the UK, and 12.9% of the US.

An estimated 17 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 10 weeks ago, averaging 243,000 doses a day over this period, but about 423,000 a day at the moment. About 79% of the people in Israel have had a vaccine, 53.7% in the United Arab Emirates, 24.2% in the UK, 17% in the US, and 5.3% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 18th June 2021, and all it’s population by 17th November 2021. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab will be required by then, taking the date to 22 April 2022.

Highest infection rates for a large area or country is currently 13.6% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.26% of a population and still increasing. 31 countries have infection rates over 5%, and 10 countries have mortality rates over 5% of those infected, the average by country being 2.09%.

As of today, 20/02/2021, in the world there have been 111.7 million cases with about an estimated 8 million active cases, increasing at +2.21% per day, and 2.48 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.11 million cases and 120,400 deaths. It has an estimated 278,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 28.7 million cases and 510,000 deaths with about 1.95 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.78%. As of 20/02/2020 there have been 85.9 million tests conducted in the UK, about 82.7 million antigen tests and 3.2 million antibody tests, 4.11 million positive of those 72.9 million processed, 5.64%, or 1 in 18 testing positive, 94.36%, 17 out of 18 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 9,000 and 14,000 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.2%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.93%. About 7.2% of known cases are still active in the world, 6.8% in the UK, 6.8% in the US. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 167,000 deaths and 6.17 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 96,000-199,000, 2.1 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.7%.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.68% for the world and 1.58% for the UK, the current figures being 2% for the world and 2.56% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.49% and the current figure is 1.93%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.2%, for the UK, 0.6-2.68% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

So about 1.43% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 6% of the UK, and 8.7% of the US according to the approximate official estimates, but likely 2.15% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.1% of the UK, and 13% of the US.

An estimated 18.5 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 11 weeks ago, averaging 253,000 doses a day over this period, but about 418,000 a day at the moment. About 83% of the people in Israel have had a vaccine, 56% in the United Arab Emirates, 27.1% in the UK, 18.5% in the US, and 6.2% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 25th June 2021, and all it’s population by 30th November 2021. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab will be required by then, taking the date to 12th May 2022.

Highest infection rates for a large area or country is currently 13.8% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.26% of a population and still increasing. 33 countries have infection rates over 5%, and 10 countries have mortality rates over 5% of those infected, the average by country being 2.09%.

Rough approximation of Cases and deaths
5th UK Model without adjustments and
compensations. Error correction.
DateDayCase TrendDeath Trend
22/02/2021Monday6390151
23/02/2021Tuesday6953523
24/02/2021Wednesday8322483
25/02/2021Thursday7890297
26/02/2021Friday7870349
27/02/2021Saturday6809291
28/02/2021Sunday4770112
01/03/2021Monday400494
02/03/2021Tuesday4357328
03/03/2021Wednesday5215303
04/03/2021Thursday4944186
05/03/2021Friday4932219
06/03/2021Saturday4267192
07/03/2021Sunday298970
08/03/2021Monday230854
09/03/2021Tuesday2512189
10/03/2021Wednesday3006174
11/03/2021Thursday2850107
12/03/2021Friday2843126
13/03/2021Saturday2460105
14/03/2021Sunday172341
15/03/2021Monday125029

From the trends it’s likely that the UK will have sub-1000 cases by the 22nd March.

Backtracked mortality

As of today, 23/02/2021, in the world there have been 112.6 million cases with about an estimated 7.8 million active cases, increasing at +2.2% per day, and 2.49 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.14 million cases and 121,000 deaths. It has an estimated 316,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 28.9 million cases and 514,000 deaths with about 2 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.78%. As of 23/02/2020 there have been 87.2 million tests conducted in the UK, about 84.3 million antigen tests and 3.2 million antibody tests, 4.14 million positive of those 73.3 million processed, 5.65%, or 1 in 18 testing positive, 94.35%, 17 out of 18 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 8,500 and 13,000 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.2%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.92%. About 6.9% of known cases are still active in the world, 7.6% in the UK, 6.9% in the US. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 168,000 deaths and 6.2 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 97,000-210,000, 2.1 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.71%.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.69% for the world and 1.6% for the UK, the current figures being 1.74% for the world and 2.48% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.5% and the current figure is 1.53%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.2%, for the UK, 0.6-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

So about 1.44% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 6.1% of the UK, and 8.73% of the US according to the approximate official estimates, but likely 2.17% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.1% of the UK, and 13.1% of the US.

Highest infection rates for a large area or country is currently 13.85% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.27% of a population and still increasing. 34 countries have infection rates over 5%, and 10 countries have mortality rates over 5% of those infected, the average by country being 2.09%.

An estimated 19.7 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 11 weeks ago, averaging 250,000 doses a day over this period, but about 361,000 a day at the moment. About 89% of the people in Israel have had a vaccine, 56.2% in the United Arab Emirates, 27.6% in the UK, 19.7% in the US, and 6.3% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 18th July 2021, and all it’s population by 17th January 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab will be required by then, taking the date to 25th July 2022.

The rate of vaccinations in all but Israel seem to be tapering off, possibly driven by supply or public resistance to vaccines, and there are signs that cases are showing a resurgence in a number of countries. There is a worry that new more infective variants are driving this resurgence, and that the demand that things ‘get back to business as normal quickly’ may fire this resurgence further. The emerging of new reports that ‘herd immunity is close,’ similer in line with those right at the start that were pretty well discreditied by the statistics, is a worrying aspect. We still know very little about this virus even with the massive amounts of research, but statistics are there to inform and get the best idea of what is happening. Many of the studies are funded and have a purpose other than this, with motives not to inform, but muddy with a financial advantage rather than a social or satety one.

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