I’ve been following the virus for over 48 weeks now. Originally I thought that it would be very limited, but that changed about 46 weeks ago, when the numbers began to rise and we found out more about it. The infected seem to consist of a lot that are in recovery, active cases currently 29% increasing at a rate of 1.03% per day, but does’t seem to push the continuity risk to the average population above around about 2.3% mortality if you contract the disease. Its likely that we are seeing the effects of various mutations in countries rather than a single one. The rate has been pretty consistent since most countries locked down and the effects of this took place since May. The moving average of active and infective cases suggest that the world as a whole under lockdown has an ‘R’ rate of about 1.1, so there is little chance of it being controlled even if a vaccine is found for at least 8 months, possibly years if the logistics are wrong. Currently the numbers will probably double every 10 weeks and keep on reoccurring or inititiating in each country. Given mutations by numbers, it is probable that any country will need to stay in lockdown and isolate for the next couple of years to avoid it. Since circumstances have not changed much over the last 6 months the likelihood of catching the disease is therefore now probably around 95% at some time, so all that can probably be done is to manage and delay.

Current Status:

This is a continuation of Coronavirus Risks 3, a continuation of the original posts, Coronavirus Risks and Coronavirus Risks 2 that were also getting a bit long.

I recently did a graph of 6 week periods of 2020 for mortality among the population in the UK:

2019 and 2020 are very similar years for climate and general social situations such as healthcare. As the previous years age statistics were not so age distinct, I did a graph comparing the same period for 2019 and 2020 using the same age grouping. The age group 15-44 is quite large so is damped by it’s younger elements. You could almost figure an overall risk factor of +5% for each year of age. :

As of today, 26/10/2020, in the world there have been 43.6 million cases, increasing at +2.8% per day, and 1.1 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 895,000 cases and 45,000 deaths. It has an estimated 360,000 known active cases. So about 0.56% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 1.29% of the UK according to the approximate official estimates. As of 25/10/2020 there have been 30 million tests returned in the UK, and 895,000, or 3% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.8%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 5.1%. About 23% of known cases are still active in the world, 40% in the UK. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1% and a UK one of 1.7% and 131 million cases have occurred in the world (1.7%) and 2.6 million in the UK (2.8%). My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 64,000 deaths and 2.7 million cases, but the range could be anything from 44,000-125,000, 1.4 million unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.6%.

Currently both Qatar and Bahrain have 4.7% infection levels for their populations, semi-locked down and increasing at a UK population equivalence of about +8,000 new cases a day.

It’s interesting that a recent study by scientists found that antibody levels have dropped by 25% in the last 3 months. Is this an unexpected thing looking at the behaviour of other coronaviruses causing the common cold? If we take we have about 3-4 colds a year, 14% caused by coronaviruses, 4 main previous strains of coronavirus, and a UK lifespan of 80 years, this mean we should catch the same strain of coronavirus between 8-11 times, or once every 7-10 years. It’s taken 7 months to get around 1% of the population of the UK with restriction, probably 10% without, so you could say such a virus would circulate and return about every 5 years, so is typical of the species. The other side of immunity is supposed to be viral memory cells, but the common cold seems common to both, so one may be an indicator of the similar status of the other.

If we take maybe 20% antibody levels gives some degree of protection above normal then we can suggest some form of level of protection from a prior infection of about 18 months, then it may not be significant, so natural ‘herd immunity’ may just return to becoming just an unproven theory based on only vaccination data, or artificial means at least in the short term, requiring decades or centuries to become effective in a herd. The old style of vaccinations, used for a couple of hundred years, work with this problem, but the new forms of vaccines or drugs developed in the last few years, based on theoretical function may or may not cater for this.

Somebody asked me recently if the PCR tests that are being used are reliable? They are not particularly good as they probably are only about 80% accurate. So, say for the UK the number of cases yesterday that tested as positive was 21,915. This means that the error was say 4,300, so the actual number of new cases yesterday could be as low as 17,500. On the other hand it could be as high as 21,800. There is a lot of active attacking of statistics purely on the basis of lack of perfection, but even 11,000, an error of 50% gives numbers that are cause for concern. Large scale PCR tests probably cost around £50 a time, so if they are so bad why is anybody using them? Because that is all we’ve got at the moment. You do get the sense of ‘everybody is being tricked except me, and I have the one true belief’ from a lot of the conspiracy theorists. 42 weeks ago I was worried about what might unfold. Most of it has, but I could still be wrong, and it’s possible it might just go away, but I’m still doubtful and think we may have the problem for at least a decade, possibly two.

As of today, 02/11/2020, in the world there have been 46.9 million cases, increasing at +2.8% per day, and 1.2 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 1,054,000 cases and 47,000 deaths. It has an estimated 420,000 known active cases. So about 0.6% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 1.5% of the UK according to the approximate official estimates. As of 01/11/2020 there have been 31.8 million tests returned in the UK, and 1,054,000, or 3.3% testing positive. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 19,200 and 30,000 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.6%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 4.5%. About 28% of known cases are still active in the world, 40% in the UK. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 0.9% and a UK one of 1.5% and 141 million cases have occurred in the world (1.8%) and 3.2 million in the UK (4.6%). My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 68,000 deaths and 3 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 45,000-135,000, 2 million unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.6%. If you look at a moving average using numbers of active cases at a given point and the time lags of the taken disease progression it gives a general world mortality rate of around 2%, or 1 in 50 people that both the world and UK figures seem to be trending towards.

I’m still working on a world model and collecting and converting the data to produce it, but still trying to calculate adequate social structure and employment indices for each country, but may have to settle for rank calculations for these. It’s becoming quite a monster, but the weather patterns are favourable for lightning in the next few weeks, so I hope to put this on this site when I am happy with the overall figures. That is if the amount of information collected in one place doesn’t make it sentient and try to take over the world in the mean time.

A rough estimation of a new UK continued lockdown characteristic looks like the chart below:

Release of lockdown on 02/12/2020 would probably change the characteristics after this point to those at a period 2 months ago. A very rough guide would be something like every week of lockdown reversing the position 2 weeks with a maximum of 2 months of lockdown being effective. Commercially, over 1 month would be a problem. Over 2 months and it would probably have little effect on the outcome unless an effective long term vaccine becomes freely available.

It’s sad in a way but the current situation could have been used to improve the position for everybody overall, but attitudes have not changed, and the view ‘at least I’ve got more than you, or at least I’m in a better position than you’ still rules the world rather than trying to get the best position for as many people as possible. Unsustainable avarice is still the prime directive for most.

There is a big assumption in the media and with the politicians that data goes out of date and has a shelf life. It doesn’t. From virologists we hear the message that the virus hasn’t changed, and is still mainly the D614G strain, so the potential is exactly the same that it was 6 months ago. It’s commonly viewed that treatments have got fantastically better, but this doesn’t come from large numbers of cases, and is dependent on expensive and hard to obtain treatments. Look at the actual costs of being treated by something like Remdesivir or ravulizumab and you realise the problem that may be festering.  £2,500-10,000 a treatment and 6 month specialised production times may be OK for small numbers, but what of large numbers? If you look at it in terms of precious metals then Remdesivir costs about 2 troy ounces of gold per treatment, Ravulizumab you just don’t want to know, as it’s in the gold bar range, and we’re not talking small ones.

What has changed is society, with most people being more careful, so the ‘damped’ numbers are taken as the new norm rather than a special case. Because of this it’s unlikely that we will see fast increases in mortality that are mentioned, but there are signs it is now filtering into the vulnerable groups that haven’t really suspended their vigilance since the start. People not really at risk are still not at risk, they never were, but we can’t keep going into complete lockdown and the systemic failures that have been resulting from over restricting when not in lockdown. Things are getting left or simply not done, for when?

It’s likely that people at risk will be at the same risk they were 6 months ago, with new ones going into the group every day, at some point everybody will, but the proposed lockdown and the possible future lockdowns, are just managing the situation not sorting it, and it will probably return again and again and again. With the increasing numbers it may be too late to solve it, so managing may be all that is possible.

So far, apart from the WHO discussing it and countries following or completely ignoring their advice, the countries of the world are playing a dangerous game of one-upmanship without a responsible adult present in the room. The WHO became too political to be a first line of defence, so became not fit for purpose, Covid-19 strolling by casually while it was organising empires and playing various countries off against one another. The view that an effective long-term vaccine may not become available dismissed as impossible. It’s too horrible to even mention or think of what is a major possibility. The virus may have other plans though, and the numbers now involved and increasing may advance major mutations.

Probably about 1-2% of the world has faced the virus so far, so it’s likely to be still right at the start, as it is in the UK, but most of the world is winning local and temporary victories claiming it’s all over. Councils are letting the wrong people speak for them, personal empires being the motive, and other people are still claiming it is a hoax as the numbers dying from it have not appeared, but with every country locking down or restricting would you expect the numbers to take off? Doing exactly what is necessary to stop it happening, and the numbers not appearing, the deniers claiming it would have happened anyway. Science is cause and effect and clear paths, belief is by random chance and vague assumptions.

Where we are now was obvious halfway through January, and unless we do something about it the problem will be still here not just January 2021, but 2022, and maybe for the next decade.

Herd immunity is quoted as a valid concept but nobody knows really how it works. People are lying if they say they do. The figures quotes range from 5% to 85% of the population needed, basically not having the faintest clue, but what is forgotten is the time period it takes. Some say from day one, but the likelihood is that it can take decades or centuries in a large dispersed population, possibly years in a smaller one, with models of it showing one day being 1% protection, the next day 70%, without any mechanics or times for transmission, spreading faster than people can come into contact with each other under perfect conditions. It’s not odd that with the whole world in semi-lockdowns and restriction with the at risk current numbers and mortality showing increases in a linear rather than exponential fashion. If the models don’t take into physical, practical and societies limitations and restrictions then they will only show works of science fiction where anything is possible and nothing is impossible.

As of today, 07/11/2020, in the world there have been 50 million cases, increasing at +2.8% per day, and 1.25 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 1.17 million cases and 49,000 deaths. It has an estimated 450,000 known active cases. So about 0.65% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 1.7% of the UK according to the approximate official estimates. As of 07/11/2020 there have been 33 million tests returned in the UK, and 1,17 million, 3.5%, or 1 in 28 testing positive, 96.5%, 27 out of 28 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 20,000 and 31,000 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.5%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 4.2%. About 24% of known cases are still active in the world, 38% in the UK. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known ratio that works out to a world mortality figure of 0.8% and a UK one of 1.4% and 150 million cases have occurred in the world (1.9%) and 3.5 million in the UK (5.1%). My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 73,000 deaths and 3.5 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 46,000-139,000, 2.4 million unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.4%. If you look at a moving average using numbers of active cases at a given point and the time lags of the taken disease progression it gives a general world mortality rate of around 1.84%, or 1 in 54 people that both the world and UK figures seem to be converging towards, the difference being closer than a week ago.

Since my original post giving an general estimate of a 2 unknown to a 1 known ratio I calculated in March, I have not found that convergent growth against limitation curves have changed much, but the figures giving ratios due to lockdowns and restrictions seems to have altered this convergence, so it seems there may be a change from 2:1 to 7:4, a factor of 3 now being a factor of 2.75, some places still being 3 and others 2.5. It might just be down to larger numbers and the spread can’t really go any faster than a certain number of contacts by each individual in a time period, or just down to restriction by various communities, but it’s probably the former as the ongoing numbers show a distinctly linear pattern rather than the exponential one at the start as maximum transmission levels seemed to be being reached in each country and around the world.

I’ve been asked to quantify the risk compared to seasonal influenza. Normally about 300,000-650,000 die from seasonal influenza a year depending on if it is low to a high year. So far about 1.3 million have died from Covid-19 since about March when most countries showed infection, so about 8 months, At the current rate it’s expected to be about 2.7 million, but could be as low as 2.2 million next March. So a rough guide would be about 3-10 times as dangerous, so probably about 6 times, 4 times seasonal flu at it’s worst.

As of today, 09/11/2020, in the world there have been 51 million cases, increasing at +2.8% per day, and 1.27 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 1.21 million cases and 49,200 deaths. It has an estimated 450,000 known active cases. So about 0.65% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 1.8% of the UK according to the approximate official estimates. As of 09/11/2020 there have been 34 million tests returned in the UK, about 31.4 antigen tests and 2.6 million antibody tests, 1.21 million, 3.6%, or 1 in 28 testing positive, 96.4%, 27 out of 28 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 20,000 and 31,000 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.5%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 4.1%. About 27% of known cases are still active in the world, 37% in the UK. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known ratio that works out to a world mortality figure of 0.8% and a UK one of 1.4% and 153 million cases have occurred in the world (2%) and 3.5 million in the UK (5.3%). My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 73,500 deaths and 3.5 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 46,000-140,000, 2.5 million unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.1%.

The Pfizer company claims that it may have a vaccine that is 90% effective against current strains of Covid-19 by Christmas, a similar claim for effectiveness by the Russians for their Sputnik V vaccine, and the Danish are planning to cull their population of 17 million mink after scientists have found a major mutation of Covid-19 in the Mink population that may transfer to humans directly. We hope that a lot of the talk isn’t just big pharma marketing hype. The first of these possibly coming online outside Russia, the Pfizer vaccine, is halfway through it’s phase three trials, 20% still failing at this point, but there are hopeful signs. How effective the vaccines would be against new strains such as the Mink version is unknown, but it might put those back by 6 months each time one is found in large numbers, or may fail when used in the field. Many people have doubts about the speed that which the Russian vaccine came out, doubting if all the trials had been undertaken to the required levels, as they normally would have taken much longer to do so, and that it was rushed into certification, production, and use. Most of the vaccines are twin injection at least weeks apart so the logistics of production, distribution and use may take up to a year to happen. The level to which herd immunity for this type of virus takes place is very important, as the cumulative numbers of early innoculation and that immunity which comes from having been infected may not build up until the majority of a population has been either in one group or the other, with the anti-vaxx movement cutting into the innoculation group. Then it may be dependent on how long that immunity effectively lasts, so it might become a ‘Forth bridge’ type scenario, with the required cumulative immunity in the population building up over years, or up to a decade, allowing the spread to continue and recycle. With the very quick large numbers in the world it can only be hoped that the virus doesn’t adapt into a vaccine resistant strain if it is used in the amounts required worldwide, the cure altering the manner or function of the disease.

As of today, 12/11/2020, in the world there have been 53 million cases, increasing at +2.7% per day, and 1.3 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 1.29 million cases and 51,000 deaths. It has an estimated 500,000 known active cases. So about 0.68% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 1.9% of the UK according to the approximate official estimates. As of 12/11/2020 there have been 34.9 million tests returned in the UK, about 32.3 antigen tests and 2.6 million antibody tests, 1.29 million, 3.7%, or 1 in 27 testing positive, 96.3%, 26 out of 27 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 21,000 and 33,000 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.5%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 4%. About 25% of known cases are still active in the world, 39% in the UK. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 75,000 deaths and 3.6 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 50,000-150,000, 2.5 million unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.1%.

Mortality, if you backtrack the infective period over the deaths that are likely to have resulted from that period from recorded cases it gives a recent average of 2% for the world and 1.14% for the UK, the current figure being 1.82% for the world and 1.52% for the UK, various conditions such as lockdowns affecting the figures, but a 2% mortality figure would be a good guideline to work from as it has the largest sample numbers and the longest term. If you do the same for the US figures the average is 1.75% and the current figure is 1.42%. The median ages of the world, UK and US are 30.4, 40.5 and 38.1

As of today, 15/11/2020, in the world there have been 54.6 million cases, increasing at +2.7% per day, and 1.32 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 1.37 million cases and 52,000 deaths. It has an estimated 475,000 known active cases. So about 0.7% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 2% of the UK according to the approximate official estimates. As of 15/11/2020 there have been 35.3 million tests returned in the UK, about 32.6 antigen tests and 2.66 million antibody tests, 1.37 million, 3.9%, or 1 in 26 testing positive, 96.1%, 25 out of 26 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 18,500 and 29,000 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.4%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 3.8%. About 30% of known cases are still active in the world, 35% in the UK. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 72,500 deaths and 3 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 50,000-135,000, 1.7 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.4%.

Mortality, if you backtrack the infective period over the deaths that are likely to have resulted from that period from recorded cases it gives a recent average of 1.91% for the world and 1.24% for the UK, the current figure being 1.85% for the world and 1.7% for the UK, various conditions such as lockdowns affecting the figures, but a 2% mortality figure would be a good guideline to work from as it has the largest sample numbers and the longest term. If you do the same for the US figures the average is 1.74% and the current figure is 1.48%.

The average for deaths in the UK is 82, which suggests most of the people dying are very elderly, but the proportions in different countries are as below that show a potential for varying results dependent on the current charactristics of a community:

UK DeathsUS DeathsMexico Deaths
Under 553%5%38%
Under 606%8%51%
Under 6510%12%63%
Under 7015%16%77%
Under 7524%21%86%
Under 8037%23%93%
Under 8555%27%97%
Under 9077%40%99%
90 and over100%100%100%

The median ages for the various populations are World 30.4, UK, 40.5, US, 38.1, Mexico, 28.3, with longevity, World, 70, UK, 82, US, 79, Mexico, 76.6.

I’m still working on my world demographic model, so hopefully I will be able to put it on the site soon, work permitting.

It’s an interesting quirk of UK statistics that Mondays usually have the lowest or base figures for the week with number of cases being 10% higher on Tuesday, 20% on Wednesday, 30% on Thursday, 25% on Friday, Saturday and Sunday with Mortality being the lowest or base level on Monday and Sunday, 100%, or twice the figure on Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday, and 85% on Thursday and Saturday.

The large numbers and the restrictions of various countries seem to have altered the curves for expansion rates crossing with lack of expension to its potential. This suggests that for most areas the figure of 2:1 for unknowns to knowns seems no longer true. Things have moved on, so it’s likely tht a figures of 1 unknown to 1 known is more likely in both the world and the UK.

As of today, 17/11/2020, in the world there have been 55.7 million cases, increasing at +2.7% per day, and 1.34 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 1.41 million cases and 52,745 deaths. It has an estimated 480,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 11.5 million cases and 252,600 deaths. US mortality from known cases is 2.2%. So about 0.71% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 2.1% of the UK, and 3.5% of the US according to the approximate official estimates. As of 17/11/2020 there have been 36.5 million tests returned in the UK, about 33.6 antigen tests and 2.7 million antibody tests, 1.41 million, 3.9%, or 1 in 26 testing positive, 96.1%, 25 out of 26 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 17,100 and 26,700 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.4%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 3.7%. About 30% of known cases are still active in the world, 34% in the UK. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 72,500 deaths and 3 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 52,000-136,000, 1.7 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.4%.

If you take the 1:1 ratio of knowns to unknowns you get 110.8 million cases in the world (1.4%), with 1.2% mortality, UK at 2.8 million cases (4.1%), with 1.9% mortality, and the US with 23 million cases (6.9%), and 1.1% mortality.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.99% for the world and 1.19% for the UK, the current figure being 1.88% for the world and 1.71% for the UK, various conditions such as lockdowns affecting the figures, but a 2% mortality figure would be a good guideline to work from as it has the largest sample numbers and the longest term. If you do the same for the US figures the average is 1.73% and the current figure is 1.46%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.74-2.33%, for the UK, 1.42-1.74% and for the US 1.46-2.07%.

Somebody asked me how I think things are going to go. It’s pure guesswork but I think the scenario will go something like below:

Numbers continuing to slightly increase until 2nd December when another 7 days will be planned for lockdown. On the 4th December numbers will start to fall and the release of lockdown will happen on about the 14th December. Total for year being about 75,000. The Pfizer vaccine will become available on about the 8th, but due to logistics, immunisation won’t start until about the 14th December. About half of the vaccines will be used before they run out and become unusable or ineffective. The AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine will become available about 1 January but numbers won’t be in general use until about February when it will become the main vaccine. The numbers will fall all of the way into the new year until about 20th January they will start to rise again, and a third lockdown will be planned for about the 17th February. At that time there will be so much political objection so that either a new leader will be demanded, or a general election will be called. Lockdown will be prevented, so the numbers will probably rise again until they are worse than then first lockdown, and possibly a mortality of as much as 2,000 a day, doubling the overall total death toll to about 150,000 before it commences in April. The AstraZeneca/Oxford will become more readily available, but the virus will continue in the UK until it’s widespread availability in about 2022, but will be hampered by doubt and the anti-vaxx movement making ever more grandiose claims.

Best guess at final figure for UK if the vaccines work out would be a mortality of about 300,000, 400 million in the world. Without vaccine(s) working out, probably 200,000 a year in the UK and 25 million a year in the world for the next couple of decades.

The vaccines will need to be in the field for months where cases of full Covid-19 will test them out of controlled conditions, but I do have reservations that what will get delivered by new methods may not be what is intended. True the technology being used is similar to that already in use by cancer treatments, but not in the very large numbers required that may be with the use of a vaccine, that may show up unforeseen and unplanned contraindications. The AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine is more of a conventional type, but much slower to produce in quantity, being dependent on controlled growth of another virus with its partial Covid-19 package, the natural structure of the virus keeping the package intact through it’s travels outside and inside the body. I demand that degradation may or may not be the problem.

As of today, 21/11/2020, in the world there have been 58.3 million cases, increasing at +2.7% per day, and 1.38 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 1.49 million cases and 54.626 deaths. It has an estimated 430,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 12.3 million cases and 261,000 deaths. US mortality from known cases is 2.1%. So about 0.75% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 2.2% of the UK, and 3.7% of the US according to the approximate official estimates. As of 21/11/2020 there have been 41.4 million tests conducted in the UK, about 38.7 million antigen tests and 2.7 million antibody tests, 1.38 million of those 38.3 million processed, 3.6%, or 1 in 28 testing positive, 96.4%, 27 out of 28 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 16,200 and 25,300 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.4%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 3.7%. About 30% of known cases are still active in the world, 29% in the UK. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 77,000 deaths and 3.2 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 54,000-137,000, 1.7 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.4%.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 2.1% for the world and 1.2% for the UK, the current figure being 1.83% for the world and 1.76% for the UK, various conditions such as lockdowns affecting the figures, but a 2% mortality figure would be a good guideline to work from as it has the largest sample numbers and the longest term. If you do the same for the US figures the average is 1.72% and the current figure is 1.35%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.76-2.33%, for the UK, 1.2-1.76% and for the US 1.35-2.07%.

At the current rate of increased production looking at the influenza vaccine production rates, the world is capable of increasing production of a Covid-19 vaccine at a rate of about 20% of doses a year. For double dose vaccines this works out to 10% a year. Anything more and production of other vaccines would need to be reduced, with knock on mortality in the diseases those vaccines cover. So a good estimate for increased vaccine production covering the number required in the world would be about 8 years for a single dose vaccine and lifetime effectiveness, 19 years for a 5 year effectiveness one, and 46 years for an annual dose one. For a double dose vaccine, the number required in the world would be about 15 years for a lifetime effectiveness one, 31 years for a 5 year effectiveness one, and 90 years for an annual dose one. Herd immunity may mean years of production required reducing to 7, 14 and 34 years for a single dose type, and 11, 27 and 66 years for a dual dose type.

So this would be a solution for those countries who could afford the vaccines, but would not be suitable for 75% of the world that will probably have the full effects of the virus over 3 years.  If vaccinations or immunities are lifetime, then all well and good for the more wealthy countries, but if the immunity is not semi-permanent then probably every 5 years the virus will outstrip the vaccine availability, until it is tolerated or take the toll of older people, 3% of the population every year going into the risk group.

With vaccines we might see something like the UK median longevity age reducing from 80 years to about 78 years, with logistics problems or lack of long-term effectiveness 75 years. For the world, median longevity ages going down from 70 to 65 or as low as 62 years.

Somebody asked why the figures vary from a few days apart. The statistics aren’t a set pattern. The figures are recalculated according to new information and varying dependencies that are discovered and arrive each day. All the figures received have prior interpretation, so are best guess approximations, and the figures calculated are best guess approximations. The variables aren’t constant ratios and need to be reinterpreted according to the unfolding situation. With each country it started as an exponential system at lower numbers and turned more into a linear solution, almost a gas flow equation as it fills a new container, with lockdowns controlling the valves and time controlling the dispersion. With vaccines it comes down to a logistics problem, and some of the specifications and claims for vaccine deliveries are simply not a capable process given current technology and provided resources. With the current speed of the spread through the world against availability and distribution, by the time they become available where and when they are needed, the effectiveness of them on the on-going situation might be slight. Only in the more wealthy countries a limited effect may be possible. They key is the period of long term effectiveness, which is a completely unknown factor, being pushed out so fast, depending on a lot quick back of the cigarette packet calculations, and a lot of hype and belief. But without the ‘middle of the battlefield usage’ a lot of what is expected may be different to what we get.

As of today, 23/11/2020, in the world there have been 59.5 million cases, increasing at +2.7% per day, and 1.4 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 1.53 million cases and 55.230 deaths. It has an estimated 435,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 12.7 million cases and 264,000 deaths. US mortality from known cases is 2.1%. So about 0.76% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 2.2% of the UK, and 3.8% of the US according to the approximate official estimates. As of 23/11/2020 there have been 41.2 million tests conducted in the UK, about 38.5 million antigen tests and 2.7 million antibody tests, 1.53 million of those 39 million processed, 3.9%, or 1 in 25 testing positive, 96.1%, 24 out of 25 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 14,900 and 23,300 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.4%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 3.6%. About 30% of known cases are still active in the world, 28% in the UK. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 78,500 deaths and 3.3 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 56,000-140,000, 1.8 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.4%.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.98% for the world and 1.21% for the UK, the current figure being 1.88% for the world and 1.84% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures the average is 1.7% and the current figure is 1.43%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.77-2.33%, for the UK, 1.3-1.84% and for the US 1.36-2.07%.

But there is another fly that seems to be creeping into the ointment, the assessing of effectiveness. From new results we have the figure of 90% effectiveness coming out for the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, the Pfizer/BionTech and Moderna now claiming 95%. But if you investigate on, the 90% for the Oxford one comes from 70.4% effective on average, up to 90% after 2 doses, one half of the first, with 2 full doses giving lower protection (62%) than 1 1/2 doses. This doesn’t make sense in a lot of ways, and there could be the possibility that being exposed twice to the adenovirus that was used as the carrier reduces your immunity. Or is it that being exposed twice to this pattern of coronavirus does the same. What about 3 times, 4 times, 5 times, and more importantly what about exposure to measles?

With the testing, are we talking about volunteers in the field who are being exposed to the full effects of a present and current virus that is now widespread and endemic to an area, so constant exposure and re-exposure, or are we just talking about theoretical exposure that is not being tested in real situations, and in areas of lockdown and restrictions, reducing contact where there is little real chances of being overcome? A calculation of 90% effectiveness if nobody comes close that’s got it.

It’s interesting that 24,000 is quoted as taking part in the study, but this does mean that in a double blind study only 12,000 actually get the vaccine, 12,000 do not, and you need to compare like for like on not just fit and healthy people who are not the main target of the disease, and may skew results. For the under 30’s the difference between having the disease, not having the disease, and having the disease after one or more vaccinations is trivial. You are talking about comparing all sub 1% figures, so probably the difference in the outcomes of something like 20 people. Now we come to psychological profiling, where the likelihood of a person to volunteer for such a vaccine will alter the outcome of a trial. Such people tend to worry a lot or be careful about their health and in who they meet. They tend to be more risk savvy than others, and be in generally better condition than average for their age. This results generally in a lower than normal levels of exposure, so a difference in numbers may indicate a placebo effect making a belief that they have had a real vaccine alter their behaviour patterns reducing their vigilance lower than typical. If this was the case more people could appear in numbers than would normally happen for this group.

The other major problem is that a lot of the vaccines are being tested in populations that bear little resemblance demographically to the intended target ones. For example, testing the results in Niger where the median age of the population is 15.4 might give a completely different set of results to testing it in Monaco, where the median age is 53.1, 50 years old does not necessarily mean the same as 50 years old, and testing it in Switzerland with a per capita GDP of $82,700 and $7,500 average medical expenditure per person might give a completely different result to Senegal with per capita GDP of $1,500 and $100 average medical expenditure per person, so using one to suggests values for the other might just be subject to confirmation bias even in double blind trials. To justify use on a population you need to test it on that population. But there seems to be an awful lot of choosing who and who is not in various trials, hopefully it doesn’t mean consciously or unconsciously targetting those population samples that will produce the most impressive results. If all the results test in the field then we still have the problem of logistics, long-term immunity and more importantly who can afford the vaccines.

What we have discovered about the virus is that in a population of median age 30.4 mortality is about 2%. Generally everybody is likely to get the disease at some time and about 14% get it seriously and of those about 14% of those die. So for 86% a vaccine may improve the situation, but won’t be the difference between having it seriously and not seriously. The outcome would be similar to distilled water, so in a trial these would not really count as valid evidence of effectiveness, only safety. The other 14% is the key, 14% getting it so seriously they die.86% getting it seriously but not dying, but likely 30% suffering from what is known as long covid. So the real test is the effects on just that 14%, the rest being a bad case of flu, or in some cases so minor they didn’t know they had it.

Putting it into numbers for a 24,000 person study, this means what are the effects on 3,360 people? The other 20,640 are immaterial as there is miminal practical benefit. For an 14 year old healthy girl the odds may change from 3300:1 down to 3298:1. In the peak week in March there was no difference from random for females of this age, 1 death when the variation thoughout a normal year was 0-7. So we are concerned with the 3,360 of which 1,100 will have severe long term results and 470 may die. Now comes the problem of who is exposed to the actual virus to test it. It’s no good having a vaccine and saying it’s effective if nobody is exposed to it. The current levels of known exposure in the UK is about 2.2%, the US 3.8%, the world 0.76%, so of that 3,360, between 26 and 128 will currently be exposed to the virus, 13 having the vaccine and 13 not, to 64 having the vaccine and 64 not, so between 3,232 and 3,334 won’t have their vaccine tested. Of those 13 to 64, 2 to 9 will die and 5 to 48 may have long term problems. The efficiency of the vaccine is how many of those it stops. This is where you need to work out how random a result you can get. In the world from statistics the 470 may be as high as 2,350 or as low as 0, so the end result could vary tremendously.

The vaccines are good news, and are sorely needed. The risk seems minimal, but current medical opinion is to steamroll the advantages over what could be severe disdvantages if all the steps aren’t followed, or they are rushed for the sake of expediency. There have been adverse side effects, but so far they have all been minimal. That there are side effects when the medical opinion states there can be none, it’s 100% safe and effective, is almost proof that they don’t know all outcomes and something might occur that they haven’t planned for. How long the effectiveness will last is totally unknown as nobody has take one of those vaccines for more than months ago. But we have medical evangelists who see caution as something to be ignored, it’s just people being stupid, and the problem can be sorted very fast. Perhaps too fast. What is the 10 year effectiveness for the vaccine? Or even 1 year with a virus that’s already infected more people than the flu that requires a yearly injection and still increasing day by day, in the UK about 20,000 new cases a day and would continue even faster without lockdowns. When will we get to routine injections, as new mutations are already starting to appear about every 6 months, and with the vast numbers increasing faster recently suggesting that mutations will happen faster, it’s just working the numbers.

That we are getting 3 vaccines coming on line, the Oxford/AstraZeneca (Oxford,UK), the Pfizer/BioNTech SE (Mainz, Germany USA/German) and the Moderna (Massachusetts, USA), is good news but there is still something bothering me. To get the +90% effectiveness you still need two doses for all of them, but this ‘serendipity’ of discovering that a half dose produces a 90% effectiveness, whereas a full second dose produces 67%, is something that should have been discovered as part of a phase 1 trial where varying levels of doses and second or third doses are calculated.

Things don’t just happen just by chance whatever people claim, and that having a smaller dose that causes less side effects is perfectly logical, but in this case we don’t have just that, having a lower overall dose being more effective. It would be like having 3 pints of beer getting you drunk, whereas 6 pints makes you 23% more sober, or having 1 followed by half a painkiller is better than having two subsequent full amounts.

As the cost of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is so low there wouldn’t be any real advantage to a half over a full dose in terms of manufacture, needing a splitting of production lines for the appropriate version, full or half dose, but the mechanism is still unclear. Is it the carrier that is reducing the effectiveness, or is it an exposure to more of the target viral pattern? The latter might not be so good as it might suggest a short term or reducing effectiveness for repeat exposure to the live virus.

What would be the effects of 2 full doses if a yearly version is required, or will it need a full original one, followed by a half dose second and a quarter a year later, and so on?

I don’t like random chance as an answer, and wonder if the other vaccines also show this effect?

As of today, 25/11/2020, in the world there have been 60.5 million cases, increasing at +2.7% per day, and 1.42 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 1.56 million cases and 56,533 deaths. It has an estimated 430,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 13.1 million cases and 268,000 deaths. US mortality from known cases is 2%. So about 0.78% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 2.3% of the UK, and 3.9% of the US according to the approximate official estimates. As of 25/11/2020 there have been 41.8 million tests conducted in the UK, about 39.1 million antigen tests and 2.7 million antibody tests, 1.56 million positive of those 39.2 million processed, 4%, or 1 in 25 testing positive, 96%, 24 out of 25 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 14,600 and 22,800 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.3%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 3.6%. About 30% of known cases are still active in the world, 28% in the UK. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 78,500 deaths and 3.3 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 56,000-140,000, 1.8 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.5%.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.98% for the world and 1.23% for the UK, the current figure being 1.82% for the world and 1.81% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures the average is 1.7% and the current figure is 1.43%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.77-2.33%, for the UK, 1.3-1.84% and for the US 1.36-2.07%.

As of today, 28/11/2020, in the world there have been 62.5 million cases, increasing at +2.7% per day, and 1.46 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 1.61 million cases and 58,000 deaths. It has an estimated 400,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 13.6 million cases and 272,400 deaths. US mortality from known cases is 2%. So about 0.8% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 2.4% of the UK, and 4.1% of the US according to the approximate official estimates. As of 28/11/2020 there have been 42.7 million tests conducted in the UK, about 39.9 million antigen tests and 2.8 million antibody tests, 1.61 million positive of those 40.2 million processed, 4%, or 1 in 25 testing positive, 96%, 24 out of 25 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 12,700 and 19,800 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.3%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 3.6%. About 30% of known cases are still active in the world, 25% in the UK. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 80,000 deaths and 3.4 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 57,000-142,000, 1.79 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.4%.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.97% for the world and 1.25% for the UK, the current figure being 1.8% for the world and 1.86% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures the average is 1.69% and the current figure is 1.33%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.77-2.33%, for the UK, 1.25-1.86% and for the US 1.33-2.07%. For backtracked mortality the world and UK figures converged momentarily at 1.84% 6 days ago and seem to be fluctuating around this point. As a reminder, backtracked mortality is defining a period in the past of cases that occured in that period, then working out the outcomes for those cases in that period that would have happened according to the recorded behaviour of normal viruses cases. It’s mainly a cause and effect calculation based on infection being the cause, then effect happening at a statistically later preiod in time.

Latest mortality data by day:

Looking at the data, an estimate is that the peak has been reached, or will be reached within the next week, then it should reduce for about 2 months. It should then stay low for another 2 months before it starts to rise again to similar levels in about 1 month after this. Due to ongoing restriction the peaks will probably be similar to this one, about 2/3rds-3/4’s of the march to april one. It’s likely this pattern will continue for the rest of 2021, but It’s also likely that the next lockdown will be rejected, so we might find the level of March reoccurring or exceeded at least once or twice.

I’m still of the opinion I held at the very start, that we need everybody in the UK to have a reliable antibody test to see the potential scale of the problem for this and future generations. The estimated cost of this would be about 1/5 of the cost of Sizewell C. It’s a major investment in information, most of the current knowledge being based on unknown quantities. Sadly there are still those in politics who think that they can use public opinion or business practice to make Covid-19 go away. The trouble is I don’t think the disease is listening to anyone, however plausible their arguments are.

I’ve finished the World Model Data that can be found at:

WPDM

This is the base data not the model. I’m hoping to tune the model and get it to a position that I would be happy with to release it. This could take a lot of tinkering.

1st entry of the data in my model gives figures for the UK of:

Rough approximation of Cases and deaths – 1st Model without adjustments and compensations
DateEstimated CasesEstimated Deaths
01/12/2020Tuesday13000620
02/12/2020Wednesday16000780
03/12/2020Thursday18000595
04/12/2020Friday17000595
05/12/2020Saturday13000500
06/12/2020Sunday7000400
07/12/2020Monday4000180
08/12/2020Tuesday4500600
09/12/2020Wednesday10000800
10/12/2020Thursday10000570
11/12/2020Friday8000590
12/12/2020Saturday4500510
13/12/2020Sunday2500400
14/12/2020Monday2000120

As of today, 30/11/2020, in the world there have been 63.6 million cases, increasing at +2.6% per day, and 1.47 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 1.63 million cases and 58,448 deaths. It has an estimated 390,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 13.9 million cases and 274,200 deaths. US mortality from known cases is 2%. So about 0.82% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 2.4% of the UK, and 4.2% of the US according to the approximate official estimates. As of 30/11/2020 there have been 43.6 million tests conducted in the UK, about 40.8 million antigen tests and 2.8 million antibody tests, 1.63 million positive of those 41.2 million processed, 4%, or 1 in 25 testing positive, 96%, 24 out of 25 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 10,000 and 15,500 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.3%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 3.6%. About 30% of known cases are still active in the world, 24% in the UK. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 81,000 deaths and 3.5 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 58,000-144,000, 1.87 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.3%.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.97% for the world and 1.26% for the UK, the current figure being 1.85% for the world and 1.94% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures the average is 1.68% and the current figure is 1.31%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.77-2.34%, for the UK, 1.25-1.94% and for the US 1.32-2.08%.

I’ll leave the original table as it was and update this one to see how big an error the model produces.

Rough approximation of Cases and deaths – 1st Model without adjusment
DateEstimated CasesActual CasesErrorEstimated DeathsActutal DeathsError
01/12/2020Tuesday13000134303.2%620603-2.8%
02/12/2020Wednesday16000161701.1%780648-20.4%
03/12/2020Thursday18000595
04/12/2020Friday17000595
05/12/2020Saturday13000500
06/12/2020Sunday7000400
07/12/2020Monday4000180
08/12/2020Tuesday4500600
09/12/2020Wednesday10000800
10/12/2020Thursday10000570
11/12/2020Friday8000590
12/12/2020Saturday4500510
13/12/2020Sunday2500400
14/12/2020Monday2000120

As of today, 02/12/2020, in the world there have been 64.6 million cases, increasing at +2.6% per day, and 1.5 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 1.66 million cases and 59,699 deaths. It has an estimated 370,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 14.2 million cases and 278,000 deaths. US mortality from known cases is 2%. So about 0.83% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 2.4% of the UK, and 4.3% of the US according to the approximate official estimates. As of 02/12/2020 there have been 44.1 million tests conducted in the UK, about 41.3 million antigen tests and 2.8 million antibody tests, 1.66 million positive of those 41.2 million processed, 4%, or 1 in 25 testing positive, 96%, 24 out of 25 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 13,000 and 20,200 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.3%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 3.6%. About 30% of known cases are still active in the world, 22% in the UK. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 83,000 deaths and 3.6 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 59,000-147,000, 1.94 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.3%.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.97% for the world and 1.41% for the UK, the current figure being 1.81% for the world and 1.88% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures the average is 1.68% and the current figure is 1.21%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.77-2.34%, for the UK, 1.21-1.94% and for the US 1.21-2.08%.

At 7am today the Independent Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) approved the Pfizer/BioNTech SE vaccine to be used in the UK. Pfizer says it should have several millions doses ready by the end of the year, 800,000 due in the next few days, and immunisation should start in hospitals in a weeks time. The main people who will be immunised using the vaccine will be nursing and residential care home residents and medical staff. This will mean that the first people that would be immunised to the claimed 90% would receive their second dose at the end of the year. It worries me the coincidence that the three main manufacturers in the field all chose the past few days to release effectiveness information early, and have all arrived about the same time although using completely different methods after 10 months of scientific endevour.

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