I’ve been following the virus for over 41 weeks now. Originally I thought that it would be very limited, but that changed about 40 weeks ago, when the numbers began to rise and we found out more about it. The infected seem to consist of a lot that are in recovery, currently 22% increasing at a rate of 1% per day, but does’t seem to push the continuity risk to the average population above around about 3% mortality if you contract the disease. Its likely that we are seeing the effects of various mutations in countries rather than a single one. The rate has been pretty consistent since most countries locked down and the effects of this took place since May. The moving average of active and infective cases suggest that the world as a whole under lockdown has an ‘R’ rate of about 1.01, so there is little chance of it being controlled even if a vaccine is found for at least 9 months. Currently the numbers will probably double every 10 weeks and keep on reoccurring or inititiating in each country. Given mutations by numbers, it is probable that any country will need to stay in lockdown and isolate for the next couple of years to avoid it. Since circumstances have not changed much over the last 6 months the likelihood of catching the disease is therefore now probably around 95% as some time, so all that can probably be done is to manage and delay.

Current Status:

This is a continuation of Coronavirus Risks 2, a continuation of the original post, Coronavirus Risks that was also getting a bit long.

As of today, 19/09/2020, in the world there have been 30.7 million cases, increasing at +3.2% per day, and 956,000 deaths. The UK is now reporting 386,000 cases and 41,700 deaths. It has an estimated 20,000 known active cases. So about 0.39% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.57% of the UK according to the approximate official estimates. As of 18/09/2020 there have been 18 million tests returned in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, and 386,000, or 2.1% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 3.3% trending to 3.2%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 10.8%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1.1% and a UK one of 3.6% and 92 million cases in the world (1.2%) and 1.16 million in the UK (1.7%).

Looking at data and what has happened in the UK it seems the offices are playing a game of semantics, redefining what constitutes a Covid-19 related death. The reduction by 5,000 cases when mortality rates above normal for this time of year are suggesting additional deaths should be counted, in a lot of ways give the impression that ministers weren’t happy with the staistics and said ‘I won’t accept these figures, go away and interpret them so they look better.’ When a government starts messing around with facts you know they aren’t to be trusted or believed in anything else.

We all will die at some time. It will almost certainly be from pneumonia and heart failure. Only in rare cases it’s not. Everything; cancer, leukaemia, influenza, heart attacks, non-instant accidents usually end up this way, ask any doctor. If you give extra morphine that hastens it, its the morphine that really kills the person, as they would have lasted longer without it. Maybe it’s only a day, but its a day thats denied that person. Definition: If something happens that advances that death ahead of the time that would normally happen, then that is the new cause. All the rest is then contributory. At this time in the year around 372,000 in the UK would have normally died. The figure that actually did is 425,000, a difference of 53,000 ignoring the reduced deaths that would have happened because of lockdown, and this week, ending 15/09/2020 looks a bit suspect. It’s interesting that the groups that are not at real risk from Covid-19, 15-30 years old, showed a markedly reduced level of mortality during lockdown by as much as half. So this would also be a ‘missing addition’ under normal circumstances. Taken from a number of varying sources and calculations of best guess, my estimate of UK deaths is 65,662. The government is playing semantics with the cause of death. Again, there seems to be a lot of messing about with the figures to make them look better, not to represent the true situation, probably using most favourable outcome guesses and estimates rather than most likely. Lie, damn lies, and politically altered statistics.

We live in difficult times, even more for statisticians. You have a set of statistics over a long period that you try to make assessments from. You know there will be large errors, innacuracies and in those assessments you try to take account for those errors. But all the preceding statistics have this commonality of error. All figures have errors in some form, and it is naïve to assume they don’t and are completely reliable and accurate. Now you rework those figures to try to take into account those errors. This means that all the preceding figures to the beginning of collection also need to be reworked, possibly building in new forms of errors that you previously discounted or wasn’t aware of. So to give continuity you need to also need to keep a running total of accumulated trends from accounting under the old system to see if your adjustment was valid, and calculate the accumulative deviation that you would expect to see if they conform to what you think they should be. This mean you need to calculate 3 sets of figures to check rather than 1. In the UK this has happened twice recently, so you really need to keep 9 sets of running figures to even get an idea of what is happening, and have a mechanism to adjust the results accordingly, doubling the requirements for results to check up to 18. If you don’t, then you are assuming the new system is correct without checking, rendering all the figures pretty meaningless except for very broad and general trends over a year, maybe not even reliable month to month, but only year to year. They certainly won’t bear subsequent analysis unless the methodology for the change is recorded for future generations. Worthless for the situation at any particular point. For future generations they maybe will not have the explanations for the changes and will probably take them at face value, so all their analyses, deductions, and the science they base them on will be suspect.

The outbreaks in the north of the UK and in the younger people were predictable from the decreasing vigilance by the various population groups. With the holiday season the moment of those groups would be still in a restricted movement mentality with people preferring to holiday closer to hand to their homes, so the spread to first north wales and possibly scarborough and skegness would be on the cards, later spreading to south wales and great yarmouth areas and back to the midlands and eventually london. The lesser affluence of the north would mean more touring so a sporadic spread to farther destinations would be likely to happen later, but with the early closing of holiday many destinations this may not happen until next year. Until then we have the combination mix of cold and flu seasons to contend with in addition.

As of today, 23/09/2020, in the world there have been 32 million cases, increasing at +3.1% per day, and 980,000 deaths. The UK is now reporting 410,000 cases and 42,000 deaths. It has an estimated 20,000 known active cases. So about 0.41% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.6% of the UK according to the approximate official estimates. As of 23/09/2020 there have been 19 million tests returned in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, and 409,700, or 2.2% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 3.1% trending to 3%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 10.2%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1% and a UK one of 3.4% and 96 million cases in the world (1.2%) and 1.16 million in the UK (1.8%).

The UK mortality statistics have returned to a more normal figure and it’s probably some cases were included in the previous and after figures, so likely just down to the postponed holiday season, some getting in figures early and others not processing until they were back. It would be bad if there was no procedure for retrospective adjustments other than directed readjustments, and they just drop out the system. All these changes have confused matters, so we wait again until next week to get even an adequate estimate.

One thing I have noticed is that everywhere systems and procedures are slowly breaking down, with cases of concern being relegated to the same level as routine. Maybe it’s just in my area, but we seem to be slowly going into a level of ‘medicine light,’ with actual risk taking second place to potential risk. Preventitive treatments slowly giving way to corrective treatments. Other areas such as maintenance seems to be also on these ‘light schedules,’ with things not being looked at until they actually go wrong. In a complicated interdependent and interconnected society it may be likely to produce ‘cascade failures’ through the systems. At what stage will a domino tip beyond practical recovery?

As of today, 25/09/2020, in the world there have been 32.5 million cases, increasing at +3.1% per day, and 990,000 deaths. The UK is now reporting 420,000 cases and 42,000 deaths. It has an estimated 60,000 known active cases. So about 0.41% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.6% of the UK according to the approximate official estimates. As of 24/09/2020 there have been 19.3 million tests returned in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, and 416,000, or 2.2% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 3.1% trending to 3%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 10.2%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1% and a UK one of 3.4% and 96 million cases in the world (1.2%) and 1.16 million in the UK (1.8%).

As of today, 30/09/2020, in the world there have been 34.1 million cases, increasing at +3% per day, and 1.02 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 453,000 cases and 42,100 deaths. It has an estimated 80,000 known active cases. So about 0.44% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.67% of the UK according to the approximate official estimates. As of 30/09/2020 there have been 22.2 million tests returned in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, and 453,000, or 2.2% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 3%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 9.4%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1% and a UK one of 3.1% and 102 million cases in the world (1.3%) and 1.36 million in the UK (2%).

It is 191 days since the first 103 day lock down started, 88 days since the end of it in the UK, and the current risk of contagion level is similar to Mid April and Mid May, the peak being end April/Start of May. The mortality seems about to be closer to the latter period rather than the earlier one though, in the same way restriction and mask wearing gave a gradual rate of decrease in cases similar to the current gain in cases, rather than the speedier one at the start. A bit like the process going into reverse rather than it’s spread. I’m still working on a spread/demographic/social and physical characteristics model for the peoples and countries of the world, but work restraints are slowing it down. I hope to put it on this site within the next month, but it’s hard to work out why the crocodiles are there when the wolves are constantly snapping at your ankles. One thing I do notice is that people are refusing to countenance a back up plan for vaccines turning out to be unsuccessful. A sort of ‘we will not let this happen and cannot be true as the thought of it being true is too bad to even consider or plan for.’

The latest news headline is that a vaccine could take a year to distribute. Add to that the problem that it will probably take a year to produce, and likely only be effective for maybe two years, so like the Forth Bridge used to be, I’ve finished, so I’ll start all over again. Or maybe hitchhikers ‘You tell me we left here before we got here,’ put your analyst on danger money now, baby.’ All in all it wasn’t unexpected, with everybody only planning on a silver bullet. Covid-19 is associated with bats, bats with vampires, and silver bullets only work with werewolves, see ‘Dracula: dead and loving it’ for information.

As of today, 06/10/2020, in the world there have been 36 million cases, increasing at +3% per day, and 1.05 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 530,000 cases and 42,500 deaths. It has an estimated 150,000 known active cases. So about 0.46% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 0.78% of the UK according to the approximate official estimates. As of 06/10/2020 there have been 24 million tests returned in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, and 530,000, or 2.2% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 3%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 8%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1% and a UK one of 2.7% and 108 million cases have occurred in the world (1.4%) and 1.6 million in the UK (2.4%).

In the UK the risk is still small even though case numbers are increasing, with mortality conforming more to the entry and exit from lockdown rather than the large increase at the start.This is probably due to continued restriction and distancing. The different group of people that seem to be a major part of this increase are the peopl that would not normally show a severe result of exposures to it, and continued or repeated exposure to the disease seems to be a big factor in its intensity and outcome. The key factors seem to be in order: exposure level, age, infirmity, employment, current infection levels, blood group, race, sex, population density, and social factor. Hopefully I can finish formulating a model combining these, but work priorities are slowing down the collection and processing of the data. For the UK, going on raw data, I would estimate that we have had 1.8 million infections and 67,000 deaths as a direct or indirect cause of Covid-19, with a range from 40-90,000. The current set of statistics seem to indicate the precision and specifications are not capable.

We live in a world of potential outcomes, but we developed to in some way spot those potential outcomes. The way we did this is using a thing called science. The current trouble is that a lot of the leaders of business are still using gut feeling and entrails to predict what may happen. They tend to be the managers who have little skill and knowledge of the subject and left their science behind decades ago. If you investigate it about 50% of the time they are right, 50% of the time they are wrong. The successful regard their correct view as an entrepreneurial or management skill, and those that aren’t regard it as bad luck, but if you threw a coin you would get the same result. We are not very good as a general population in predicting anything.

The public are now listening more to those that didn’t predict what has occurred, even though it was their single job and the purpose why they are in their position, and ignore what is happening elsewhere in the world. One side claims the lockdown worked and we are in a better position, the other side claim it had no effect and it would have gone away without it. Herd Immunity; regarded by those who adhere to it as completely proven, but it is an unproven theory that nobody knows how it really works. The application of herd immunity is completely different dependent on what particular current strain of a virus or bacteria an unknown population of unknown social structure and density will get and nobody knows how long it will take, months to centuries. We have had wild claims by experts who originally predicted nothing that it would go away as everybody probably already had it, but other countries have had now 5% of their population catching it and still increasing at the same rate. We know we can catch other coronaviruses over and over again so immunity is going to be limited. The claims are based on this one being different than those. Who do we listen to? The people who want to go back to all business as usual have the advantage that if things go really wrong they can claim it would have happened anyway.

The second claim is that a vaccine or vaccines will remove the problem completely and it will just go away. More wishful thinking and not based on science.

Based on large scale testing of populations in other countries that returned very low actual infection percentages the world is still at the start of the outbreak from a year ago, so we probably will have it running around the world for at least a decade, until it mutates and decides to take a second and third bite from the population. The leaders of various areas are still saying it will go away and therefore it’s irrelevant, that this probably will happen, go on with business as usual. Keep on speeding down the motorway through the fog as you will be late otherwise.

One of the rough models I ran suggested that because of the current strain of Covid-19 the world population will not significantly rise for the next century, and in the short term may fall. If new significant mutations arrive all bets are off. A severe version may destabilise civilization

Best guess, unless we really plan for the future or we will still be in this position 10 years from now.

As of today, 10/10/2020, in the world there have been 37.4 million cases, increasing at +3% per day, and 1.08 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 590,000 cases and 42,760 deaths. It has an estimated 200,000 known active cases. So about 0.48% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 0.87% of the UK according to the approximate official estimates. As of 10/10/2020 there have been 24.6 million tests returned in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, and 590,000, or 2.4% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.9%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 7.4%. About 22% of known cases are still active in the world, 35% in the UK. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1% and a UK one of 2.5% and 112 million cases have occurred in the world (1.4%) and 1.77 million in the UK (2.6%).

If I am worried about two things it is measles; the level of vaccination against measles, if resources are being diverted from it, and how the anti-vaccination movement has affected it. Measles seems to have the potential to suppress immunities, possibly for extended periods. The second is the number of cases, as the number is important for major mutations. A guess would be that there are already hundreds of cases of a second major mutation, possibly showing up in the new year, with a third starting around december, showing up in october 2021. The two things combined wouldn’t be good.

I think Australia is being a bit optimistic about reopening at end of 2021, more like end 2022. There are no signs that the Virus that was around at the start of the year has changed significantly since then. So, the general risk is what it was then, especially if supplies are pushed. A dose of remdesivir takes about 26 processes at low temperatures and about 6 months at best to produce.

If you check Australia’s manufacturing capability for a vaccine it’s quite small at the moment so probably any country that can manufacture one will hog the share for itself at least at the start.

So far we have one Russian version that hasn’t really taken the time for all the tests and contraindications that you would normally expect. Things like this if rushed could end up worse than actually catching it, so unless widespread use confirms its safety it’s probably best to ignore it for the moment.

Others seem to be going through the stages and probably at least one should be close to production in the next six months, but the best contenders are not single doses but requiring 2 or more applications.  For the UK say, unless you divert resources from equally urgent disease treatments, to produce the required number of doses would be at least a year and maybe up to a year for quality testing, packaging and distribution with the necessary documentation for use. If you divert required production you might end up with worse mortality for those that have missed required drugs. If we really move then probably 2 years.

You then have the problem of mutations and how effective the vaccine is for how long.

With the current numbers of people out there infected it’s unlikely anybody will be able to avoid it and the more people catch it the higher the probability for major changes in its structure. It’s a numbers games Might be better, might be worse, prior exposure having an advantage, but usually only over a long time period.

The risk to the young is very small, but it doubles about every 10 years in age. At 40 it’s still quite small unless you have a serious complaint, but at 50 it starts to get quite significant, 60 more so, etc., not replacing risks but in addition. This is good for the young, but the consequences to the young are also dependent on what happens to their older family. Inheriting money is not the same thing as inheriting help when you need it.

Multiple exposures, so occupation, age, health, weight, sex, blood group, demographics such as population density all seem to play a part and it’s likely that social behaviours are key to its recurrent spread. It is possible that length of time since exposure to the measles virus may be a further important one. Some people hide, some modify their behaviour, and some people refuse to do so, or think its over. The resurgence in areas and groups point to those completely relaxing their caution and just going on as they have in the past, while other groups are still vigilant.

The first lockdown helped reduce numbers quickly but the continued increase throughout the world means we’ve likely lost the battle to prevent it going any further, so all that can be done is to manage the situation and delay getting it. The longer it can be delayed the more likely some effective treatment will become available, but too much and the economy will suffer and won’t be able to take advantage of it. Too little and the health service may not cope and the economy may be then the last thing on people’s minds. There were 4 main strains of coronavirus out there, now there are 7; 5 and 6 were very bad but because of this they were stamped on early with 6 still grumbling away in a few places.

To combat the virus we need to modify our behaviour, and the need to modify things slightly, but not out of proportion to the risk.

As of today, 12/10/2020, in the world there have been 38 million cases, increasing at +2.9% per day, and 1.08 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 618,000 cases and 42,875 deaths. It has an estimated 240,000 known active cases. So about 0.49% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 0.91% of the UK according to the approximate official estimates. As of 12/10/2020 there have been 25.5 million tests returned in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, and 618,000, or 2.4% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.9%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 6.9%. About 22% of known cases are still active in the world, 35% in the UK. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1% and a UK one of 2.3% and 114 million cases have occurred in the world (1.5%) and 1.85 million in the UK (2.7%). My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 61,000 deaths and 2 million cases, 1.4 million unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 3%. Unless the disease has radically changed, if you analyse a lot of the figures around the world they don’t add up for what we are aware of about the disease, especially time schedules, with people recovering and becoming non-infective a lot faster than averages, sometimes in half the time.

Total mortality figures from all causes are very important. Then you have an added safety factor from being in lockdown that would reduce expected. For total recovered from official figures a good estimate is the current number of cases minus those who have died, minus the case figures 20 days previous. Depends on you definition of recovery though, possibly treating as slightly recovered or recovering as completely recovered. Then use 14 days previous. For likely figures multiply them by three to get a rough actual out there, except mortality, when the Total Mortality minus expected mortality is key.

As of today, 13/10/2020, in the world there have been 38.3 million cases, increasing at +2.9% per day, and 1.09 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 635,000 cases and 43,000 deaths. It has an estimated 240,000 known active cases. So about 0.49% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 0.93% of the UK according to the approximate official estimates. As of 13/10/2020 there have been 25.7 million tests returned in the UK, and 635,000, or 2.5% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.9%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 6.8%. About 23% of known cases are still active in the world, 38% in the UK. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1% and a UK one of 2.3% and 115 million cases have occurred in the world (1.5%) and 1.9 million in the UK (2.8%). My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 61,000 deaths and 2 million cases, but the range could be anything from 42,000-120,000, 1.4 million unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 3%. The upper figure is unlikely but possible, as is the lower figure.

Unless the disease has radically changed, if you analyse a lot of the figures around the world they don’t add up for what we are aware of about the disease, especially time schedules, with people recovering and becoming non-infective a lot faster than averages, sometimes in half the time. One thing that seems to come from the distribution of mortality in the UK among the different age groups and sex is the proportions of each have changed from March, with previously affected groups not showing increases, whereas other groups showing a March type increase. It’s likely that this is due to varying degrees of social awareness and distancing still being practiced in some groups but not others, resulting in a skewed effect. From the numbers in the groups showing increases, they are similar in number to the position in March, but the increase is a reverse, almost like backtracking into the problem, similar to the way the numbers decreased during lockdown. So it’s indicative of the disease not substantially changing over the last 6 months, just the way it now distributes.

As an exercise I did a rank calculation on how each country is doing in comparison to the level of the outbreak and mortality based on what stage they are probably at. It came out with this list with the higher up the better, the lower down the worse.

Country
DRC
Angola
Malawi
Sudan
Uganda
Cuba
Hong Kong
Sri Lanka
Zimbabwe
Mozambique
Nicaragua
Congo
China
Singapore
Guinea
Tajikistan
Gabon
Equatorial Guinea
Haiti
Slovakia
Trinidad and Tobago
Lithuania
Ivory Coast
Malaysia
Eswatini
Mauritania
Georgia
Madagascar
Namibia
Jamaica
Slovenia
Senegal
Zambia
Qatar
Norway
S. Korea
Jordan
Ghana
Bahrain
Finland
Cameroon
Croatia
Palestine
Albania
Greece
UAE
Tunisia
Uzbekistan
Lebanon
Myanmar
Azerbaijan
Denmark
Libya
Kuwait
Kenya
Nepal
Venezuela
Serbia
Australia
North Macedonia
Nigeria
Austria
El Salvador
Bulgaria
Belarus
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Hungary
Armenia
Oman
Kyrgyzstan
Paraguay
Costa Rica
Ethiopia
Czechia
Afghanistan
Japan
Moldova
Algeria
Kazakhstan
Ireland
Switzerland
Portugal
Israel
Dominican Republic
Honduras
Panama
Morocco
Poland
Guatemala
Saudi Arabia
Ukraine
Bangladesh
Romania
Egypt
Sweden
Philippines
Pakistan
Netherlands
Bolivia
Turkey
Canada
Germany
Iraq
Belgium
Indonesia
Ecuador
Chile
South Africa
Russia
Argentina
Colombia
Iran
France
Spain
Peru
Italy
UK
Mexico
India
Brazil
USA

This is only based a very rough calculation of perceived outbreak progression, and some of the close positions are pretty arbitrary, with as many as 5 places being similar.

We have a few country base levels that may be used to estimate the current and possible future situations and produce likely limits:

Qatar, median age 33.2 years, population 2.8 million, density 613 people per square mile, 129,000 cases and 223 deaths, has had 4.6% of its population detected as having had the disease, and still increasing at a constant rate of about +200 cases a day.

Peru, median age 28 years, population 33 million, density 65 people per square mile, has had 2.6% of its population detected as having the disease, and 0.1% of its population has died in the last 6 months, 865,500 cases, 33,700 deaths, and still increasing at about 2,700 a day.

The UK, median age 41, population 68 million, density 725 people per square mile has had 700,000 cases with 40,000 deaths mainly within a 3 month period. It has done 26.6 million tests with 705,000 or 2.7% testing positive. Cases are now increasing at 16,000 cases a day.

Sweden, median age 41, population 10.1 million, density 59 people per square mile, has had 103,000 cases, 5,900 deaths mainly within a 5 month period and 470 new cases a day.

Scaling for just population this gives.

AgeDensityCasesDeathsNew Case Rate
UK417257000004000016000
Sweden4159693000397003200
Qatar33613310000054004850
Peru28651800000694005400
        

This is a very rough and ready calculation and is a trend for what is expected if it gets into a population. It would be very unreliable to compare populations with varying demographics with it. There are many other factors such as healthcare, social distributions, etc. I am still working on a general model but work demands has slowed the whole thing down.

As of today, 18/10/2020, in the world there have been 40.1 million cases, increasing at +2.8% per day, and 1.12 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 722,000 cases and 44,000 deaths. It has an estimated 260,000 known active cases. So about 0.51% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 1.06% of the UK according to the approximate official estimates. As of 18/10/2020 there have been 26.6 million tests returned in the UK, and 722,000, or 2.7% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.8%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 6.1%. About 25% of known cases are still active in the world, 36% in the UK. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1% and a UK one of 2% and 120 million cases have occurred in the world (1.5%) and 2.2 million in the UK (2.8%). My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 62,000 deaths and 2 million cases, but the range could be anything from 43,000-122,000, 1.4 million unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 3%.

Covid-19 currently has 2 main variants that are commonly out there D614D and D614G. The D strain was the one mainly responsible for the Wuhan outbreak, and the G one for Italy and Spain, etc. A lot of genetics is a numbers game with probabilities for things happening and coming together. There are probably 600 minor variants of Covid-19, but not significantly different to be really noticed. The numbers that produced the second variant G was probably around 100,000-200,000 infections, and most later infections seemed to be of this type taking over from the early running of D. Since it is a strong and sturdy version it would not be odd if the next variant would need something like a million infections to produce, but could be something in the range 200,000-10 million. We are at 40 million, so I wouldn’t be surprised if at least 1 or 2 new versions are now out there and haven’t made themselves known significantly yet and taken over. If it’s 4 then the odds are stacking up.

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