Coronavirus Risks (SARS-CoV-2)
I’ve been following the virus for over 26 weeks now. Originally I thought that it would be very limited, but that changed about 25 weeks ago, when the numbers began to rise and we found out more about it. The infected seem to consist of a lot that are in recovery, but does’t seem to push the continuity risk to the average population around about 6% mortality if you contract the disease.
There is a lot of underplaying of the risks. If you check the Chinese population age distributions and the risk to each age group that is calculated, against an actual figure of those that are infected, 80,000, the total based on those proportions in the population comes to there should be about 1,100 deaths. The actual figure for deaths is 2,900, so the risk to the general population is at least 3%, not 1%. This may be based on the belief that only 29% of the general population may contract the disease, but like it’s cousin, the common cold, this may turn out to be similar and become known as the common CoV2.
Intelligence is defined as the ability to adapt to new and novel situations and environments, and none is more novel than this new novel coronavirus.
Just looking at the facts, not wild guesses and beliefs, there are 95,500 cases, 3,250 deaths, and 6,000 who are still in a serious or critical condition. It’s likely that at least 10% of those will die, so that pushes it up to about 4% for those who contract the disease.
A lot of reliance is based on the Diamond Princess, where only 27% of passengers contracted the disease out of the total ship, but this was an artificial environment where it was easy to restrict and control everybody. In the real world this doesn’t happen, people needing to go about their daily lives without good and controlled life support from an outside community.
The absolute minimum mortality based on current facts is 4,020/114,500=3.5% that bears out this deviation from what is announced and what is very likely.
So the estimated risks of death for people who catch the disease are:
1-40 0.48% or 1 in every 208 people
40-50 0.96% or 1 in every 104 people
50-60 3.1% or 1 in every 32 people
60-70 8.6% or 1 in every 12 people
70-80 19.1% or 1 in every 5 people
80+ 35.3% or 1 in every 3 people
Serious medical condition only 10.8% or 1 in every 9 people
Not everybody catches the disease, and that figure is still playing out as it is still very early days, so there can’t be any certainty or real knowledge only best guesses. The worst case that is being indicated is 80%, but it could be as low as 10% if there are other environmental or social factors we are unaware of. But it could also be 100% if it doesn’t disappear and eventually reinfects everyone like it’s similar cousin the common cold. It’s not flu as it’s a completely different virus, so flu comparisons are very shaky at best, completely wrong at worst.
This epidemic is new, probably not being experienced at any time in mankind’s history before, so there are no experts. It’s a 1st for even them, comparisons with other forms and viruses by conjecture and guess only. It may have occurred in the past, but only to non global-populations where it probably mutated to an innocuous form or died out with that population. All that can be used for information are estimates, moving averages and extrapolations.
Considering that the estimated claim is 1% mortality and with 92,300 known and recorded infections there have been 3,100 known and recorded deaths in a slightly younger average age population. Based on recorded facts that comes out to about 3.3% or 1 in every 31 people, but may go up, as there are still 6,000 people who are in serious or critical condition. It’s likely that 10% of those will die, so a figure of 4% mortality, or 1 in 25 people who get it would probably be much closer to the truth. It sounds as if the models they are using are predicting one thing, and the facts and evidence predicting another. This is of course if you get the virus. As far as we know it is similar to the common cold in it’s infectivity, and you have about a 1 in 7 chance of getting that, so 80% eventually getting it is probably around about the right figure. Doesn’t bode well in the next 10 years for hundreds of millions of people worldwide or 2.7 million in this country, 10 million in the US.. Of course that’s as long as it doesn’t turn out to be a quick mutating and reinfecting version. The only evidence we have is SARS started in the Guangdong province 17 years ago, probably from bats, and slightly different Covid19-SARS started in Hubei province, about 200 miles away, again probably from bats. But judging by the lack of use or mention of an original SARS vaccine, it suggests that the one produced for SARS, which took 2 years from the original outbreak, wouldn’t be effective against the new one, and it’s sufficiently different to possibly mutate and infect again like the cold, so it might be necessary for a yearly SARS injection.
There is a big problem with people confusing viruses with bacteria. Bacteria are around 1,000nm in size, compared to 120nm for the Coronaviruses, so viruses’ resources are very limited compared to bacteria who like to hang around on the street corner. Nobody is quite sure or prepared to hazard a guess about it, but comparable viruses can last up to 6 hours on things like stainless steel, plastic, worktops, door handles and hard or glossy materials. On clothes, tissue and other absorbing materials, about 45 minutes, or 15-20 minutes on skin. It’s mainly due to the vehicle they need to get about in, usually a droplet of water based fluid, sneezes, coughs, blood, possibly even urine, as long as it’s within a suitable PH level. But it needs to get into the system using a similar PH conduit. The nose has a range of about PH5.3–8.1, averaging PH6.3, the lungs, being the favoured route has a range of about PH7-7.6, so lung to lung transport is ideal.
So basically what you are looking for is a transport system that is an easy vehicle, probably anything that is in the PH6-8 level. A lot of other areas are a bit too way out in life style for this virus. This covers a lot, sneezes, coughs, urine, faeces, sweat, semen, etc, etc.
There are a couple of things that need to be investigated. How the contraction of measles will affect the outcome. Whether people who have had measles recently or at all are more or less likely to have a severe reaction? Also similar with the common cold. Next, we are told that there may be two versions of the virus out there infecting, one severe, the other not so. Does contracting the less severe version stop the contraction of the first version or have any advantage as in the case of cowpox and smallpox, and if so, would it be better to pre-infect people wih the less severe version in controlled circumstances?
There has been suggested that the mortality rate is a lot lower, between 1-1.4%, and that the majority of cases are unnoticed or not declared, but that would imply a much lower contamination rate than has been experienced. There have been 81,000 cases in China and 3,300 deaths. That comes out to 4.07%. I’ve been following the virus since the start of January and it is now trending to 3.6%, but been averaging 3.4% for the past 9 days. At 40 the risk starts to increase, doubling each additional 10 years. As for infection rates, they are very low, so we can assume that there aren’t that many cases that are undetected. To produce a figure of 1.4% there would need to be 117% more undetected cases, which is 18,000 undetected people contaminating the world. ~Nadreck57
If you take the increase in cases overall, that in itself means that there should be at least 117% more undetected cases, which should produce at least 5,000 new cases a day at this moment in time. The actual figure of about 2,000 suggests that most are detected, but there are about 7,000 people in the world wandering about with the disease that hasn’t manifested itself yet. For the UK there are 116 cases, so that would also suggest that there are about 10 people at the moment wandering around who don’t know they have contracted the disease. With a time span of realising you have it, to recovery of about 3 weeks, this also suggests that this phase could be around 2 days.
So the figures added together suggest from first contact and contracting to being able to pass it on of about 4 days. From this period to realising a person has the disease of about 2 days. Full onset within 4 days, becoming serious or not within 4 days, and recovery or not within 14 days.
The initial slow start in each country and increase based on small numbers arriving tend to support this view, otherwise you would get an initial effect of something like 100 cases suddenly appearing as a starting point.
If I was to hazard a guess based on new infection rates, I would say probably around 8% of those who have newly contracted the disease do not know that they have got it.
In the UK the possible effects on the economy are worrying, with economies already being stressed by restrictions in spending on public and social projects. A lot of people are living on the edge, robbing peter to pay paul, and needing to stay off work for something like 2-3 weeks is all it’s needed to push another large portion over the edge. I’m sure all the firms such as water, electricity, gas, mortgage, council tax, telephone, are all going to be more forgiving and not put black marks against them for late paying, not. If the worst happens, at least it will affect both rich and poor showing how dependent we are on each other and wilfully neglecting one part has consequences for everybody, but as usual the poor will come off worse. If it got into a hospital, or especially a nursing home it could be very severe and damaging. People in nursing homes are usually elderly and not in the best of health, so it could be as much as a 50% mortality rate in those cases.
Transferred from other posts and pages:
11th January. 1st post on Yahoo where I used the word concerned about how the new disease was developing.
20th January. I started making preparations for it arriving in the UK.
22nd January. There is a worrying trend in China, particularly the Wuhan area where a novel coronavirus normally found in bats has infected 570 people and 17 have died. This is a very low sample, but it comes out to about 3%, which is worrying.
January 27th. There have been about 7,000 cases of the disease in China with about 200 deaths. This has been continuing for a couple of weeks. Very worrying.
February 4th – 20,400 cases with 770 deaths. Case trend has been about +10% per day.
February 8th, 34,500 cases. If things aren’t really done in the next 2 weeks, we will probably have 130,500 cases at the end of that time, 11 in the UK. Then it would possibly about September for most people in the UK to have had it and have gone worldwide.
February 14th, 63859 cases. 1383 deaths. Still +10%, 2.3% Mortality.
February 16th, 69289 cases. 1671 deaths. +3.2% since yesterday, but still averaging +9.5%, now 2.4% Mortality, probably as medical facilities are straining. The Chance of it being under control 35%, which has steadliy gone down over the past 2 weeks. Chance of it being out of control 65%, which has steadily got worse over the last two weeks.
At today, 18/02/2020, there are signs of the spread being limited, as the past week has changed to a +9% per day increase that is steadily reducing daily, giving a trend of +8.5% case increase per day, but that may simply be down to mass isolation being imposed on the originating area, I expected it to show 89,072 cases and 1781 deaths, with 9 cases in the UK from an estimate of +10% per day and 2% mortality on 20/01/2020 and the figure is 73,436 cases, 1874 deaths and 11 UK cases. The trend for mortality seems to be heading for a levelling off at about 2.7%, mainly based on the original population.
At today, 20/02/2020, the spread has changed to about a +7.3% with few new cases compared to earlier. I expected 107,777 cases, 2,156 deaths and 11 UK cases based on the original estimate and there are only 75,752 cases, 2,130 deaths and 9 UK cases. The trend for mortality still is trending to 2.7%, and recovery after 16 days at about 80%. The containment/non-containment ratio is now slightly favouring contained.
As today, 23/02/2020, the spread has changed to about a +6.5% with fewer new cases, but the trend is still there and originally minimal figure countries are showing larger outbreaks. I expected 143,451 cases, 2,869 deaths and 13 UK cases based on the original estimate of +10% per day, and there are only 78,997 cases, 2,470 deaths and 13 UK cases. The trend for mortality is now trending to 2.8%, and recovery after 18 days at about 90%. The containment/non-containment ratio is now even, but recent outbreaks in other countries suggest that it isn’t being contained, the figures in those countries just not catching up by dint of comparisons to the start of the Chinese outbreak.
As today, 26/02/2020, there are 80,000 cases and 2,800 deaths. Some areas are experiencing the initial fast China growth in numbers. Mortality is now trending 2.9%, containment in China even, but in other countries unlikely as restriction and checking have only just started.
As today, 28/02/2020, there are 84,200 cases and 2,870 deaths, but as much as two thirds of the new cases are now occurring in countries outside China. Mortality is trending to 3.1%, and recovery after 18 days about 88%.
As today, 02/03/2020, there are 90,000 cases and 3070 deaths, with about 50% still recovering or never will, as about 7,000 people are in a critical or serious condition, but the majority of cases are occurring outside China. Mortality is trending to 3.4%, and recovery after 19 days about 85%. We now have 40 cases in the UK, which is in line with predicted figures suggesting that it will really expand in the UK from about May. Completely worldwide has shifted to late September.
As of today, 05/03/2020, there has been 95,500 cases and 3,280 deaths, with about 44% still recovering or never will, as about 6,500 people are in a critical or serious condition. The increase rate is about 4.38% per day. Mortality is trending to 3.6%, and recovery after 19 days about 87%. We now have 90 cases in the UK.
As of today, 07/03/2020, there have been 104,000 cases and 3,500 deaths, with about 44% still recovering or never will, as about 6,200 people are in a critical or serious condition. The increase rate is about 4.5% per day. Mortality is trending to 3.6%, and recovery after 19 days about 87%. We now have 162 cases in the UK.
As of today, 10/03/2020, there have been 114,500 cases and 4,020 deaths, with about 41% still recovering or never will, as about 5,800 people are in a critical or serious condition. The increase rate is about 4.4% per day. Mortality for those contracting the disease is still trending to 3.6%, and recovery after 21 days about 90%. We now have 321 cases in the UK that is now averaging +40% new cases a day. My original estimate on 20/01/2020 of +10% per day is quite a lot out, as I expected 660,000 worldwide cases, 26,000 dead and 70 cases in the UK. Probably because of the early lockdown in China. Completely worldwide is now trending towards late november, throughout the UK beginning of august. It’s looking more unlikely that a change in season will have the limiting impact that is claimed, as Australia that is in it’s summer, and countries that are similar to the UK’s summer, have shown an increase similar to the UK and more temperate countries rates.
As of today, 12/03/2020, there are 128,000 cases and 4,700 deaths. Mortality is still trending to 3.6%. In the UK we have 456 cases. This is where pre-infection of a barrier mobile medical or social task force of a limited risk population may become important. With this new Covid-19 virus there is going to be a general risk to everybody, and that risk will not become less by pre-infection, they will likely become infected at some stage anyway if the disease develops. But the advantage is that they will be in a controlled environment so that the risk can be greatly minimised, rather than part of a population that has little or no medical aid available. The actual risk will be way less for them. This is where a register of past infected or immune people may becomes a vital resource.
As of today, 17/03/2020, there are 183,000 cases and 7,100 deaths. Mortality is trending to 4%. In the UK we had as of yesterday 1,543 cases.
Comparing it to seasonal flu, if you look at US CDC figures, about 40 million get seasonal flu, of those about half consult the doctor, and about 2.5% of those require hospitalisation. Of that figure about 10% die from it. So if you get it, the percentage that die works out to about 0.1%. Italy currently has a mortality rate of about 8% with Covid-19. China that has only about 10% of active cases left was about 4.3%, but the serious or critical cases aren’t going down quickly. So a good estimation would be that it is between 40-80 times as dangerous. This is for medical care that can just about cope. If it breaks down I would expect the figure to be nearer 100 times.
As of today, 20/03/2020, there are about 250,000 cases and 10,000 deaths. Mortality is trending to 4.2%. In the UK we had as of yesterday 3,269 cases. The UK increase has been a lot faster than I expected, probably because restriction was slower in coming in compared to countries earlier in the line. Hopefully the restrictions will limit it to that, but there is a sign that younger people are still ignoring the risk, probably because proportionally to them it is a very minor one. The world case curve is now following the standard country curve of non-restriction, so it’s likely that the continued spread will move from developed, where restriction and testing is prevalent, to non-developed countries.
As of today, 21/03/2020, there are about 280,000 cases and 11,500 deaths. Mortality is trending to 4.3%. The level of 8.6% in Italy is worrying. In the UK we had as of yesterday 3,983 cases and 177 deaths. The UK has gone into a limited lockdown, but not as severe as the Chinese one. In comparison, the Wuhan area went into lockdown on the 23/01/2020, two months ago, and has limited its level, today 41 cases, to that of when the outbreak started, 41 cases on 10/12/2019. From looking at the numbers and modelling, I still work out that for every 1 known cases there are 2 unknown cases. So this suggests that there are about 8,000 people in the UK who haven’t developed symptoms yet. The biggest problem is data, which seems to be becoming restricted. “Input, input, need more input.” All eyes are on China.
As of today, 23/03/2020, there are 375,000 cases and 16,000 deaths. Mortality is trending to 4.5%. Numbers are increasing in all countries. The UK has 6,600 cases and 335 deaths. So far there have been 83,945 tests done in the UK, 77,295 negative and 6,650 positive, so that’s 7.9% positive. This still suggests a 2:1 ratio of known to unknown cases, so a current rough estimate would be that there are about 13,000 people who aren’t aware they have the disease yet. My original estimate of 10% increase per day in cases at the end of January seems to have returned.
As of today, 28/03/2020, there are 620,000 cases, increasing at +6.4% per day, and 28,500 deaths. Mortality is trending to 4.5%. The US, then Italy overtook China in cases. The UK has 17,089 cases with 1019 deaths. The data is still skewed by the unknown, but the recent access to testing should give a better picture. But I’m worried by Antigen testing rather than Antibody testing. True it should tell you faster who is currently actively infected with this version and should isolate, but after the fact, and it doesn’t tell you who should be immune or is unlikely to pass this version on. Plus testing negative doesn’t mean that you can’t then get it the next day and test positive. This might mean if you work in healthcare or a public office you need to be tested every few days. Up until now the UK has done 120,000 tests with 17,089 positives, so about 14% positive. If you take South Korea, they have done 387,925 tests with 9,478 confirmed, so 2.4% positive. The results pattern are still consistent with a 2:1 ratio, S. Korea entering a restricted phase earlier in the outbreak than the UK. On the 23rd the UK was testing 7.9% positive.
Accounting for a 2:1 unknown to known ratio and the number of likely critical cases that will not end well, it suggests an overall mortality in an unstressed medical system of 1.6% and a very stressed medical system of about 4% and a potential death rate for the world between 100-250 million this time around, ending badly in the world something like the end of September, but for the UK around the end of July. It’s unlikely that an individual country could lock down for more than 3 months, that could push it to January 2021 and end October 2020.
Thinking about it, if I were to suggest a possible course of action, I would empty a major hospital, moving all the patients to the surrounding areas, then at some point fill it with only medical personnel who are in the least risk category and currently have the disease. They could be supervised and monitored by people who in the past had the illness or tested positive for antibodies associated with the disease. Completely isolating it for 3 weeks. Then using it as an mobile immune task force. Vaccines are still probably at least a year away, so are unlikely to improve the situation.
As of today, 30/03/2020, there are 750,000 cases, increasing at +6.4% per day, and 36,000 deaths. Mortality is trending to 5%. Italy has a rate of 11.4%. Adjusting for unknown and known cases it’s probably about 1.67% for the world and 3.8% for Italy. This ties in with medical stressing models. The UK has 22,141 cases with 1,408 deaths. So about 0.0096% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.033% of the UK.
In China a research institute in Anhui province is working on a nanomaterial, probably using Nanozymes that can deactivate the Covid-19 virus in about 98% of cases. It has claimed successful tests in doing this, which could be used in air purifiers, face masks and possibly protective clothing. Northeastern University in Boston, Massachusetts is working with the US CDC is working along a similar line using nanoparticles that can be sprayed onto a surface rendering it unlikely to re-transmit the virus in future.
The median age in that area of Italy is 45.5 and 11.4% mortality. Japan has a median age of 47.3 and 2.9% mortality. Germany has a median age of 47.1 and 1% mortality. UK has 40.5 and 6.4% mortality. S. Korea 41.8 and 1.7% mortality. Iran has a median age of 30.3 and 6.6% mortality. All are based on known cases, Japan, Germany, Italy, the UK and South Korea having widespread testing around suspected cases, South Korea being the most intensive. Another straw people have been clutching at is smoking, with Germany, Japan and South Korea all smoking heavier on average than Italy. Iran being particularly low, the first three having more and heavier smokers. The only real difference is level of healthcare and the stressing of that healthcare.
Another theory proposed by a recent study that is talked about zoonotic transfers, theorised there were 2 options and only considered those. One that Covid-19 mutated before it transferred to humans and one that it mutated after, totally ignoring the third likely option that it mutated most during the transfer to humans, that I consider the likeliest. The figures are still trending to 1 million cases and 50,000 deaths on the 4th April, 55,000 cases and 1,900 deaths in the UK. Worldwide around the start of October.
As of today, 31/03/2020, there are 806,000 cases, increasing at +6.4% per day, and 40,000 deaths, 25,150 cases in the UK and 1,789 deaths. Mortality is trending to 5%. So about 0.01% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.038% of the UK. As of yesterday there have been 134,946 tests done in the UK with 22,141 or 16.4% testing positive. Looking at source reports for testing in each country you get a range of 2.4-15%, usually and consistently in the 11-15% band. The hypothesised factor of 10 times unknown as known cases would suggest that even given widespread testing about 90% of cases are missed. For South Korea, 410,564 tests with 9,786 positives the figure would need to be 98% missed. For the hypothesis of 500,000 unknown cases in the UK previously mentioned at the start of UK’s outbreak, this would mean that for the UK 99.5% of cases were missed by testing.
The mortality rate per person in the UK is 630,000 per year, 1,725 a day. So Covid-19, 1st reported on January 20th, 71 days ago with it’s 1,789 deaths currently contributed to about 1.36% of all deaths over this period. There is no figure of the number of cases where it contributed to a death and it wasn’t tested and counted as such.
As of today, 04/04/2020, there are 1,120,000 cases, increasing at +6.6% per day, and 59,000 deaths, 38,000 cases in the UK and 3,600 deaths. So about 0.014% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.057% of the UK. As of 03/04/2020 there have been 173,784 tests done in the UK with 38,168 or 22% testing positive. For South Korea, it has 10,000 cases and 175 deaths, 1.75%. 455,032 tests have been done there with 10,156 positives, 2.2%. Mortality based on known cases is trending to 5.5%. So if we take an unknown to known rate of about 2:1, a true mortality estimate based on probability and modelling is about 1.41%, which agrees with the figures from extensive testing, so based on a required immunity level of 80%, the general risk to the world population is estimated to be about 1 in 89 people. What is worrying is that about 3.5% of cases are being classed as serious or critical, and about 15% of those are dying compared to earlier in the outbreak when that figure was closer to 10%. This tends to go along with the modelling estimates of healthcare stressing.
Current model of outbreak 04/04/2020
As of today, 07/04/2020, there are 1.35 million cases, increasing at +6% per day, and 75,000 deaths, 52,000 cases in the UK and 5,400 deaths. The world increase rate has been steadily going down over the past 12 days that is similar to the early data from China, so restrictions and distancing are having an effect on the numbers at present. In the UK it’s a bit too early to tell. So about 0.017% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.078% of the UK. As of 06/04/2020 there have been 253,000 tests done in the UK with 52,000 or 21% testing positive. For South Korea, it has 10,330 cases and 192 deaths, 1.86%. 460,000 tests have been done there with 10,330 positives, 2.2%. Mortality based on known cases is trending to 5.8%. So if we take an unknown to known rate of about 2:1, a true mortality estimate based on probability and modelling is about 1.93%, which agrees with the figures from extensive testing, so based on a required immunity level of 80%, the general risk to the world population is estimated to be about 1 in 65 people.
As of today, 09/04/2020, there are 1.58 million cases, increasing at +6.6% per day, and 95,000 deaths, 65,000 cases in the UK and 8,000 deaths. The UK has been in lockdown for about 17 days. The world increase rate has been steadily going down over the past 14 days that is similar to the early data from China, so restrictions and distancing are having an effect on the numbers at present. In the UK the trend of increase is still going downwards. So about 0.02% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.097% of the UK. As of 08/04/2020 there have been 300,000 tests done in the UK with 65,000 or 21.7% testing positive. Mortality based on known cases is trending to 6%. So if we take an unknown to known rate of about 2:1, a true mortality estimate based on probability and modelling is about 2%, which agrees with the figures from extensive testing, so based on a required immunity level of 80%, the general risk to the world population is estimated to be about 1 in 63 people.
Current picture based on estimated levels of population, distribution, healthcare level, heathcare stress and restriction:
With a reliable antibody test, anybody who is positive will likely be in this same position, every positive test counting, so should get a card saying they are ‘CV19 Antibody +,’ and can get back to work and relatively free movement, or help out. This is probably the only way there is to get a working system of trade and development, unless you want it to go on like for years, restriction and isolation being just a temporary solution, unless you wait for maybe 18 months for a safe and effective vaccine; maybe 2 years to get it out there. After a safe and reliable vaccine has been developed this card could also apply to them.
A bit of guesswork, but I did a chart of what I thought the position and status of the disease in each country. The farther to the left the indication of how far advanced the country has advanced in it’s outbreak, and the higher up the chart the bigger the level in comparison to the population.
The second chart is what I thought our current outbreak position as far as it is compared to the what will happen in the world over the next 6 months.
As of today, 12/04/2020, there are 1.8 million cases, increasing at +6.5% per day, and 112,000 deaths, 84,000 cases in the UK and 10,600 deaths. The world increase rate has been steadily going down over the past 17 days. In the UK it’s still a bit too early to tell the best course of action. So about 0.023% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.12% of the UK. As of 10/04/2020 there have been 352,974 tests in the UK with or 84,297, or 23.9% testing positive. World Mortality based on known cases is trending to 6.2%. So if we take an unknown to known rate of about 2:1, which is borne out by less than 1/4 of people still testing positive, a true mortality estimate based on probability and modelling is about 1.67%, which agrees with the figures from extensive testing, so based on a required immunity level of 80%, the general risk to the world population is estimated to be about 1 in 60 people. The disease from start to recovery seems to take about 19 days, as if you take the people recovered or died compared to the total cases, this ties in with the same proportions compared to the number of cases 19 days ago, and the spread rate is right for the time period proportion of people at the starting stage, unaware they have the disease but infectious of about 5-6 days.
A case for which we think we know time periods was Idris Elba who thinks that he contracted it on the 4th from Sophie Trudeau and visited Candyman Strings on the 10th, a gap of 6 days. He was in close proximity to the owner at that time, and maybe some of the other staff, who don’t seem to have contracted the disease, and he was found to be positive but with no signs on the 16th, a gap of 6 days. His wife later tested positive on the 22nd March, a gap of 6 days, and they finished their isolation on the 31st. The other possibility is that he contracted it on the 10th from the proximity of the shop and tested positive on the 16th, 6 days later, but his wide didn’t test positive until the 22nd, a gap of 6 days, then finished on the 31st, nine days later. The lack of testing inbetween also clouds the problem.
The problem is lack of traceability and likely cause and effect. Because of lack of investigation for known steps there is so little information but guesswork. This also applies to every death; so possible characteristics for risk are also unknown apart from age and illness, which is true for nearly every disease except the 1918 flu. In the modern age you would think that things would be investigated at least to a 19th century level.
As of today, 13/04/2020, there are 1.9 million cases, increasing at +6.4% per day, and 119,000 deaths. The purpose of statistics is to try and depict as true a picture of what you are studying as possible, not just a sanitised officially approved figure, or an officials believed trend. I’ve always been worried by the ONS in the UK officially only taking hospital and key worker figures, so any official figure we get from the UK is now becoming wildly inaccurate by as much as 100%, ignoring the fact that nobody has any idea as to unknown cases anyway, so I will still include it but always with the proviso ‘approximate official estimate,’ as that is what it has now become compared to a lot of other countries. Known to unknown has always been totally unsure, so full of error, but to make known to officially recorded figures so inaccurate, especially in mortality, squares the error. No attempt has been made to remedy it, and without a compensation there’s no point in the existence of a department just parroting another.
In the UK we have an approximate official estimate of about 88,621 cases and an approximate official estimate of about 11,329 deaths. The world increase rate has been steadily going down over the past 18 days. In the UK it’s still a bit too early to tell the best course of action, but the increase has been reducing over the past 11 days, starting 10 days after lockdown. So about 0.0245% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.132% of the UK according to the approximate official estimate. As of 11/04/2020 there have been 367,667 tests in the UK in hospitals or of key workers with or 88.261, or 24% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is trending to 6.3%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 12.8%.
Other countries have found in their communities somewhere near 35-50% of deaths probably attributable to Covid-19 are not recorded, especially in care homes.
So if we take an unknown to known rate of about 2:1, which is borne out by less than 1/4 of people still testing positive, a true mortality estimate based on probability and modelling is about 1.66%, or 1 in 60 people, which agrees with the figures from extensive testing, so based on a required immunity level of 80%, this appear to be the general risk to the world population.
For the UK, with so many cases not being tested and deaths outside hospital not being recorded, the known to unknown figure is probably closer to 4:1, but the mortality will be closer to +90% of recorded. So an estimate for the UK would be closer to 435,000 have been infected, with 20,900 deaths. So an estimate of mortality for the UK would probably be closer to 3.9% or 1 in 26 people.
For the UK, with so many cases not being tested and deaths outside hospital not being recorded, the known to unknown figure is probably closer to 4:1, but the mortality will be closer to +90% of recorded. So an estimate for the UK would be closer to 435,000 have been infected, with 20,900 deaths. So an estimate of mortality for the UK would probably be closer to 3.9% or 1 in 26 people.
As of today, 17/04/2020, there are 2.2 million cases, increasing at +6.3% per day, and 152,000 deaths. In the UK we have an approximate official estimate of about 108,692 cases and an approximate official estimate of about 14,576 deaths. The world increase rate has been steadily going down over the past 17 days. In the UK it’s still a bit too early to tell the best course of action, but the increase has been reducing over the past 23 days, starting 2 days after lockdown. So about 0.029% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.16% of the UK according to the approximate official estimate. As of 17/04/2020 there have been 438,991 tests in the UK in hospitals or of key workers with or 108,692, or 24.8% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is trending to 6.8%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 13.4%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 2.3% and a UK one of 4.5%.
As of today, 22/04/2020, there are 2.6 million cases, increasing at +6.1% per day, and 180,000 deaths. In the UK we have an approximate official estimate of about 133,495 cases and an approximate official estimate of about 18,100 deaths. The world increase rate has been steadily going down over the past 22 days. In the UK it’s still a bit too early to tell the best course of action, but the increase has been reducing over the past 23 days, starting 2 days after lockdown. So about 0.033% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.2% of the UK according to the approximate official estimate. As of 22/04/2020 there have been 559,935 tests in the UK in hospitals or of key workers with or 133,495, or 23.8% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is trending and levelling off to 7%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 13.6%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 2.3% and a UK one of 4.5%. Total UK mortality based on average figures for this time of year from 2018 is 10,415 a week. This year the total mortality for all causes started out at 11,543 per week for the first 13 weeks. Week 14 was 16,387 and 15, 18,516.
It’s worrying that the increase rate in the UK has stalled at +3.4% per day for the past 3 days when it has been steadily reducing for the previous 11 days.
As of today, 29/04/2020, there are 3.2 million cases, increasing at +5.8% per day, and 220,000 deaths So about 0.041% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.25% of the UK according to the approximate official estimate. As of 27/04/2020 there have been 720,000 tests in the UK in hospitals or of key workers with 157,000, or 21.8% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is trending and has been levelling off for 12 days and is now steady at 7%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 15.8%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 2.3% and a UK one of 5.3%.
In the UK as at 17/04/2020 the official reported deaths from Covid-19 was 14,576, but if you look at the weekly mortality figures from all causes against what should have been happening this time of year the increase on 17/04 was about an extra 27,031. This is taken from data of the past 5 years for this period. From this information the estimated extra deaths in the UK at present is 21678/14576*27031=40201.
Looking at blood groups and the commonality of those in various countries, there seems to be a statistical quirk against the number of cases and deaths in those countries associated with rhesus negative groups. It may just be a statistical fluke but does suggest people with rhesus negative blood groups may be at a higher risk. There is also a slight anomaly with A groups being slightly higher against O or B, and uncommon groups being slightly higher against common ones.
As of today, 05/05/2020, there are 3.7 million cases, increasing at +5.6% per day, and 277,000 deaths So about 0.052% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.28% of the UK according to the approximate official estimate. As of 02/05/2020 there have been 1,129,907 tests in the UK in hospitals or of key workers with 182,260, or 16.1% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is trending and has been levelling off for 18 days and is now steady at 7%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 15.1%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 2.3% and a UK one of 5%.
From raw data from deaths all causes against what should have been happening this time of year, week 17 being 21,997, the increase at 24/04 was about an extra 38,482. This is taken from data of the past 5 years for this period. The UK reported figures at that date was 22,792, so 38482/22792*28734=48514 would be a good estimate of the current figure.
As of today, 09/05/2020, there are 4.07 million cases, increasing at +5.5% per day, and 279,000 deaths So about 0.052% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.32% of the UK according to the approximate official estimate. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is trending and has been levelling off for 22 days and is now steady at 7%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 14.8%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 2.3% and a UK one of 4.9%.
Risk chart by age between before and after Covid-19 as at 05/05/2020
Risk chart by age between before and after Covid-19 as at 12/05/2020
As of today, 14/05/2020, there are 4.5 million cases, increasing at +5.3% per day, and 300,000 deaths So about 0.058% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.35% of the UK according to the approximate official estimate. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is trending and has been levelling off for 25 days and is now 6.7%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 14.4%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 2.23% and a UK one of 4.8%. The general risk to the public is presently about 1.49%
At the current trend of increase that has been happening for weeks of about +2.2% per day, and a suspected 2:1 ratio with an assumed herd immunity of 75% then there is an estimated duration up to 21/02/2021 for the world with an estimated 133 million deaths. The UK works out to estimated duration for the first wave of up to 30/06/2021 with 617,000 deaths. This might seem excessive but the overall risk to the UK population has changed according to the tabel below:
| Dying this year | ||||
| Age | Was | Now | ||
| 0-4 | 1345 | to 1 | 1381 | to 1 |
| 5-9 | 18844 | to 1 | 18844 | to 1 |
| 10-14 | 18348 | to 1 | 24464 | to 1 |
| 15-19 | 4827 | to 1 | 5171 | to 1 |
| 20-24 | 3536 | to 1 | 4518 | to 1 |
| 25-29 | 2746 | to 1 | 2232 | to 1 |
| 30-34 | 1731 | to 1 | 1496 | to 1 |
| 35-39 | 1108 | to 1 | 870 | to 1 |
| 40-44 | 747 | to 1 | 667 | to 1 |
| 45-49 | 513 | to 1 | 376 | to 1 |
| 50-54 | 337 | to 1 | 243 | to 1 |
| 55-59 | 218 | to 1 | 153 | to 1 |
| 60-64 | 136 | to 1 | 98 | to 1 |
| 65-69 | 96 | to 1 | 67 | to 1 |
| 70-74 | 55 | to 1 | 41 | to 1 |
| 75-79 | 31 | to 1 | 21 | to 1 |
| 80-84 | 17 | to 1 | 11 | to 1 |
| 85-89 | 10 | to 1 | 6 | to 1 |
| 90+ | 6 | to 1 | 4 | to 1 |
This table won’t apply to other countries as the social structure, demographics and genetic makeup of the populations are different. A lot depends on the mutational capability after large scale distribution, but hazarding a guess I would estimate the effect on the economy to be a major one for around 10 years.
As of today, 19/05/2020, there are 4.9 million cases, increasing at +5.2% per day, and 320,000 deaths So about 0.063% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.37% of the UK according to the approximate official estimate. As of 18/05/2020 there have been 2.7 million tests in the UK in hospitals or of key workers with 246,000, or 9.1% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is trending and has been levelling off for a month and is now steady at 6.5%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 14.1%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 2.2% and a UK one of 4.7%.
From raw data from deaths all causes against what should have been happening this time of year, week 19 being 12,657 the increase at 08/05 was about an extra 49,575. This is taken from data of the past 5 years for this period. The UK reported figures at that date was 31,241, so 49575/31241*34796=55216 would be a good estimate of the current UK figure.
Based on an analysis of the raw data things do seem to have got a lot better. The risk for males over 50 is still around 50% higher than normal. For females over 45 it’s around 40% higher. For areas of the country, most places have reduced to about a 20% greater risk, but the more northerly areas seem to be around 30%. Wales doing best being now around normal for this time of year. It has now got down to a level where a social distancing one month off, one month on style of restriction would be practical.
As of today, 23/05/2020, in the world there are 5.4 million cases, increasing at +5% per day, and 343,000 deaths. The UK is reporting 257,154 cases and 36,675 deaths. So about 0.069% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.38% of the UK according to the approximate official estimate. As of 19/05/2020 there have been 2.8 million tests in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, with 249,000, or 7.2% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is trending and has been levelling off for a month and is now steady at 6.3%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 14.3%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 2.1% and a UK one of 4.8%.
As of today, 26/05/2020, in the world there are 5.6 million cases, increasing at +4.9% per day, and 350,000 deaths. The UK is reporting 265,227 cases and 37,048 deaths. So about 0.072% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.4% of the UK according to the approximate official estimate. As of 25/05/2020 there have been 3.7 million tests in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, with 265,000, or 8.9% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is trending to 6%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 14%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 2.1% and a UK one of 4.7%.
Comparing mortality from all cases against reported cases and those assumed to be Covid-19 we get the graph below:
Chart of Mortality 2020
Most of the deaths are in the over 60’s. The chart below recording the figures:
It’s too early to assess the projected trend with Covid-19 as we only have 1 weeks data that shows a small increase in fatalities, so this may be just a blip and down to recording variations. Generally the trend is still towards levlling off, but on the 2nd June we should get new data that will suggest what is happening if the trend in daily figures doesn’t indicate it first.
As of today, 04/06/2020, in the world there are 6.6 million cases, increasing at +4.7% per day, and 390,000 deaths. The UK is reporting 281,661 cases and 39,904 deaths. So about 0.085% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.42% of the UK according to the approximate official estimate. As of 03/06/2020 there have been 4.8 million tests in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, with 280,000, or 5.8% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is trending to 5.9%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 14.2%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 2.1% and a UK one of 4.7%.
From the latest all death mortality figures comparing them against what should happen this time of year the estimated actual deaths as a consequence of Covid-19 directly or indirectly would be likely to be over 56,000 in the UK. Your home is probably the safest place you can be, so it’s likely that mortality for the past 19 1/2 weeks should have been lower than normal, when even for 2 weeks ago it was about 2,300 higher that week than normal without restrictions. So it’s likely that we will not know the impact at this moment in every country in the world until a few years time, if the governments are prepared to release them. Something has killed 20,000 extra people above reported figures up to 22nd May when the mortality should have been less. A current estimate of mortality from Covid-19 is therefore around 65,000 in the UK. From early on there has always seemed to be a rough figure based on expansion, lack of it, new cases and new areas, initial starting points, varying mortality rates, and stages of infection that suggests a 2 unknown to 1 known case ratio. Various unvalidated models have been run that suggest up to a 50:1 ratio, but if herd immunity of about 80% is real, then new infections should stop when the official figure gets to 1 million in the UK or 3.5 million in the US. So that is another 1.6 million in the US for that ratio. The next is the figure suggested at the start of there being elready 500,000 cases, which means the outbreak should end at 1.5 million UK cases, 5.25 million in the US. None of this is supported by any results from testing which comes up with 6% positive from people who are more likely to have it. There are currently 281,661 cases in the UK, so with a 2:1 ratio that suggests 850,000 people have been infected and a mortality rate of 7.6%. Comparing countries that have a consistent, more reliable, and less politically adjusted set of returns, this agrees with the 6-8% mortality figure that comes from data from other sources. If it gets into a country this seems the likely outcome unless it is caught early on. I still keep on saying this a whole world problem, various places having temporary and local victories with each district, area or country trying to deal with the problem. All is well, our house by dint of skill is free from it and will stay that way. That is true right up until the point it isn’t. While the world doesn’t deal with it as a whole, look at the worst effected area for the future. Why is it that I get flashbacks of ‘Masque of the Red Death,’ with Vincent Price. Good film.
As of today, 06/06/2020, in the world there are 6.9 million cases, increasing at +4.7% per day, and 400,000 deaths. The UK is reporting 284,868 cases and 40,465 deaths. So about 0.089% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.43% of the UK according to the approximate official estimate. As of 03/06/2020 there have been 5.4 million tests in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, with 285,000, or 5.2% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is trending to 5.8%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 14.2%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1.9% and a UK one of 4.7%.
It still seems we are at the start of the outbreak and it has not really spread in many other countries, especially in the developing world. In the more developed countries it still probably hasn’t really taken hold, mainly because of lockdowns. In most countries the infection level in the population is probably less than 2%. The suggested world mortality rate of 1.9% is based on similar figures from a general lockdown model with most countries restricting. If the model was changed to an uncontrolled scenario with health services unable to cope the mortality figure would probably be in the 5.5-6.5% rate with a potential world death rate equivelent to the entire population of the US. For the next decade probably the world has changed, and to go on with business as usual, sleeping on a hoard and grabbing everything you can get, risks losing it completely, substituting arrogance for survival.
Looking at the most effected country, which is Qatar, it has a population of 2.8 million and 67,000 recorded cases and no sign of reducing. New York has a similar level and other severely effected areas show the same, and most showing no signs of reducing. This suggests that the unknown to known ratio cannot be less than 40:1, and it’s almost guaranteed that it is less than 20:1. If you include something like a 75% herd immunity level then that lowers it to 15:1
A friend on mine mentioned that a lot of credence is given to the meaningless ‘R’ or Re ratio. The first thing you need to do is to understand what ‘R’ refers to. Normally it’s a thing that nobody should refer to outside a model, as every new outbreak tends to disagree with the existing figures, and mostly prove the original assumptions, formula and deductions were all wrong. Looking at past epidemics each new version of a disease has somewhere near a 10% chance of altering the R0 parameters, unless it reaches a new population, when it has about a 50% chance, and this is dependent on which decade it appears. Basically a number of 1 refers to the number of new cases in the current state of a population. In theoretical epidemiology it’s basically a person infecting one more person. Less means on average or median they infect less than 1 person, more meaning more than one. I’ll use average and median rather than arithmetic mean and median as people have a better idea of what it refers to. R is counted as a dimensionless number, which basically means it can refer to any value that the person using it can think of, 0.5 can equal 1 can equal 1.5 depending on varying context. But over what period do you ask, as an infective period can last from a days to months, and up to past a lifetime. Where you can ask, as a small confined community has a different form than a football match, a pop concert, or a big city. A big close family has a greater opportunity than a small loose one. A poor rural one being less mobile and inter-country and well travelled than a very wealthy jet setting one. A young person more than a pensioner. A family with school children more than a nursing home. The North South divide adds further complications, with depressed areas being completely different than affluent ones. Then there is the viral loading and means of infection, and not forgetting limitations of maximum transmission and contacts, likelihood of reinfection or immunity. A bit like calculating travelling at speeds from 0 to infinity. In the real world there are minimum and maximum limits. This is why it is usually only used in terms of models; the things that use populations and integrals of -infinity (∞) to +infinity, perfect exponential sequences, and the effects on zero populations, rotational matrices, and zero fields.
It’s a bit like trying to get people who calculate to thousandths of an inch to realise the limitations of wood.
But the main problem with such models is that communities rarely have homogenous person units. Since about 1952 models have been used in many fields, especially where what is going on can’t be worked out. So a model is produced to prove what you think is going on, is going on. Basically 1+1=3=Pi if the model says so. If it’s in error then reality has got it wrong. Think of them as advanced computer games. Playing call of duty is not really like being actually in Vietnam.
Re is a practical application of the even more obscure R0 that refers to a 100% susceptible population that has never seen anything resembling the disease before. Again this is a theoretical value similar to 1. For example how is the virus transmitted; answer, 5.
Why this happened is that despite all the professors and professionals in epidemiology working on their models, virtually none of them saw this coming, and abstract numbers, diseases and people prove to be quite different. Even now they are working on models to simulate various scenarios to suggest courses of action, when the lowest psychologist probably has a better idea.
It’s interesting that as of the 7th June there have been about 100 million tests done in the world and only 7 million positive results, or 7%. This is a similar ratio in the UK from targetted tests from people who are more likely to have the disease, so the normal percentage in the population should be a lot less than a random sample of 7%. A bit like testing for lung cancer in smokers and assuming this is the normal level or higher in the general average population. Either the tests are pretty worthless, or the view that there are large numbers of unknown cases is nonsense and just wild personal guesses, not based on any actual evidence.
As of today, 09/06/2020, in the world there are 7.3 million cases, increasing at +4.6% per day, and 411,000 deaths. The UK is reporting 289,140 cases and 40,883 deaths. So about 0.093% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.43% of the UK according to the approximate official estimate. As of 08/06/2020 there have been 5.7 million tests in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, with 287,000, or 5% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is trending to 5.5%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 14.1%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1.9% and a UK one of 4.7% and 22 millon cases in the world and 870,000 in the UK.
This is the latest raw data from of deaths in the UK. This is looking very good for the lockdown, but there is still a long way to go, which is really dependent on a vaccine. At the moment if a vaccine is quickly available then we are unlikely to be free of the disease before the new year. Similarly around the world. If a vaccine is not possible or an effective treatment is not available then it’s likely that it will re-occur regularly for the next 30-40 years and probably be responsible for the worlds average longevity reducing from 70 for males and 72 for females to around 60 for males and 65 for females. In the developed countries this may be even more marked, with males currently at 80 and females at 83 going down to 70 and 73 respectively.
As of today, 12/06/2020, in the world there are 7.7 million cases, increasing at +4.5% per day, and 426,000 deaths. The UK is reporting 292,950 cases and 41,481 deaths. So about 0.098% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.44% of the UK according to the approximate official estimate. As of 12/06/2020 there have been 6.4 million tests in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, with 292.250, or 4.6% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 5.6% trending to 5.5%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 14.2% trending to 14%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1.9% and a UK one of 4.7% and 23 millon cases in the world and 880,000 in the UK.
The numbers have been steadily decreasing in the UK for the past 14 weeks, but over the past week this has stalled and is showing a sign of starting to increase again slightly. In the world the numbers have been consistently increasing at a steady rate day by day, but again this rate of new cases has started to increase over the past week suggesting it is not under control. We will see on the 16th if the reducing trend is continuing or has virtually ceased.
As of today, 18/06/2020, in the world there has been 8.4 million cases, increasing at +4.4% per day, and 451,000 deaths. The UK is reporting 300,000 cases and 42,000 deaths. So about 0.11% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.45% of the UK according to the approximate official estimate. As of 17/06/2020 there have been 7,121,976 million tests in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, with 299,251, or 4.2% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 5.4% trending to 5.2%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 14.1% trending to 13.8%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1.8% and a UK one of 4.7% and 25 millon cases in the world (0.32%) and 900,000 in the UK (1.34%).
As of today, 22/06/2020, in the world there has been 9.1 million cases, increasing at +4.3% per day, and 472,000 deaths. The UK is reporting 305,289 cases and 42,647 deaths. So about 0.12% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.45% of the UK according to the approximate official estimate. As of 22/06/2020 there have been 8,029,757 tests in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, with 305,289, or 3.8% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 5.2% trending to 5%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 14% trending to 13.8%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1.7% and a UK one of 4.7% and 27 millon cases in the world (0.35%) and 916,000 in the UK (1.37%).
As of today, 23/06/2020, in the world there has been 9.25 million cases, increasing at +4.31% per day, and 476,000 deaths. The UK is reporting 306,210 cases and 42,927 deaths. So about 0.12% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.46% of the UK according to the approximate official estimate. As of 23/06/2020 there have been 8,309,929 tests in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, with 306,210, or 3.7% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 5.2% trending to 5.1%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 14% trending to 13.7%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1.7% and a UK one of 4.7% and 29 millon cases in the world (0.35%) and 916,000 in the UK (1.37%).
One other fact is that Qatar, which has a known population of 2.8 million, has had 90,778 known cases and tested 11.9% of the population. It is still increasing in numbers at a consistent rate of about 1100 a day (0.04%), If an 80% herd immunity figures are true then the ratio of unknown to known cases must be a maximum of 24:1 if there are no cases tomorrow. Monaco with a population of 40,000 has tested about 41% of it’s population but has only returned 1/4 of a percent positive, so the idea that the disease is commonplace doesn’t agree with the figures.
Based on the deaths from all causes mortality in the UK, Covid-19 has directly or indirectly probably caused 59,650 extra deaths more than would be normal for the past 12 weeks. If the 2:1 ratio unknown to known cases is true then there should be currently 916,000 cases in the UK producing an overall mortality of 6.5%.
As of today, 28/06/2020, in the world there has been 10.2 million cases, increasing at +4.2% per day, and 503,000 deaths. The UK is reporting 311.151 cases and 43.550 deaths. So about 0.13% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.46% of the UK according to the approximate official estimate. As of 28/06/2020 there have been 9,195,132 tests in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, with 311,151, or 3.4% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 5% trending to 4.8%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 14% trending to 13.7%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1.6% and a UK one of 4.7% and 31 millon cases in the world (0.4%) and 916,000 in the UK (1.4%). If you take the difference compared to normal mortality figures from all cases for the UK, the mortality figure is 59,455, or 6.5%
I am hesitant to use the UK as a typical example of lockdown figures, but it would suggest a typical world mortality of 2.2 and a potential level before herd immunity of about 129 million deaths worldwide. My current worry with how the disease is progressing, is that with all the cases now and happening in the world at an increasing rate, the scenario for a ‘next variant’ developing is becoming more probable.
As of today, 30/06/2020, in the world there has been 10.5 million cases, increasing at +4.16% per day, and 510,000 deaths. The UK is reporting 311.965 cases and 43.575 deaths. So about 0.15% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.47% of the UK according to the approximate official estimate. As of 29/06/2020 there have been 9,290,215 tests in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, with 311,965, or 3.4% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 4.9% trending to 4.8%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 14% trending to 13.7%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1.6% and a UK one of 4.7% and 32 millon cases in the world (0.4%) and 916,000 in the UK (1.4%). If you take the difference compared to normal mortality figures from all cases for the UK, the mortality figure is 59,192, or 6.3%.
Although only a minor indication that needs to be followed for a few more weeks, looking at the variance in the UK charts for this weeks data this suggests that the models need to be modified to take into account people who would normally live another 3 months dying early, which improves the overall mortality risk by as much as 5% for those without a very serious and unstable complaint, but raises the risk of people with one by 30%
As of today, 10/07/2020, in the world there has been 12.5 million cases, increasing at +4% per day, and 560,000 deaths. The UK is reporting 288,133 cases and 44,650 deaths. So about 0.16% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.43% of the UK according to the approximate official estimate. As of 10/07/2020 there have been 11,538,519 tests in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, with 288,133, or 2.5% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 4.5% trending to 4.3%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 15.5% trending to 15%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1.5% and a UK one of 5.2% and 37.5 millon cases in the world (0.5%) and 864,000 in the UK (1.3%). If you take the difference compared to normal mortality figures from all cases for the UK, the mortality figure is 58.878, or 6.8%.
The general assessment is that it’s likely the chance for containment in the world has passed, and it’s really a delaying game to either find a vaccine or an effective treatment for this strain of the virus.Modelling suggests that there is already a current new strain present in the world, and numbers are likely to produce additional major variations every 10 months as with influenza, the majority being of lesser potency, but a 50:1 chance of it being greater than the current version.