Coronavirus Risks 13 (SARS-CoV-2)
I’ve been following the virus for 172 weeks now. Originally, I thought that it would be very limited, but that changed about 170 weeks ago, when the numbers began to rise and we found out more about it.
I still have the opinion I had right at the start in January 2020 that it was coming our way big time and we will have the effects for at least a decade, possibly two. Additional diseases seem to be taking advantage of the situation that Covid has produced. We are now 3 years after the initial outbreak and covid is still suddenly increasing and abating in countries, China being one of the latest to have this effect, where numbers are dramatically increasing, as are deaths. It now has a reported figure of 5,272 deaths, but likely nearer a million and maybe more.
Suppression of figures and minimising the risks are now the rule for every country. As far as most are concerned the epidemic is over, restricting or not producing statistics and not testing and immunising to give the impression that things are going well, but the figures from indirect means suggesting that numbers are again increasing and that people aren’t getting the latest protection to deal with it. So far, a more severe form of Covid has not developed and most countries are gambling on that not happening in the future, with none planning for the chance this may happen. With so little actually being published now or looked into, all you can do is look at the area around you for warnings. Hospital admissions are again on the increase, being nothing new and having become quite cyclical since 2020, but the longer constancy of it at this point, when they should be decreasing, is worrying and suggests all is not well.
The figures for mortality are published at about 6.9 million, but I suspect they are closer to 20 million, many countries suppressing or hiding their figures so as not to cause embarrassment to their governments. The current variant, XBB.1.16 (called Arcturus), one of about 600 derivations of omicron, is doing the rounds in areas near India, but has been found in most countries now. With limited or restricted figures there’s probably not much point in doing regular updates unless something goes drastically wrong, and with pressures of work at the moment I don’t really see the point in regularly updating this post any more, so I may do it monthly until I shortly retire and can devote more time to the work I want to do. With the disbanding and stopping of most things associated with the outbreak we an only hope that it stays quiescent for a long time, but I’m not confident of this happening, suspecting it is only a matter of time before this or a similar outbreak with another virus happens. Lessons have been forgotten, ignored and thought of as irrelevant.
As a check I decided to investigate to see if another updated booster was available in the UK, possibly from a walk-in clinic. Most walk-in clinics no longer give shots to all, but very restricted sections of populations, and there are no plans for an updated booster for most. It might be that the best way to ensure your safety may be to get an updated booster abroad, because the local authorities no longer care for the subject. Providing a good service gets in the way of administering it.
There is now a lot of mounting evidence that the virus started around august 2019 in China from when they started buying up PPE equipment in the world, a lot of which they previously exported. This was from about 167 weeks ago. Also, the figures that China publishes can be considered very unreliable and much being suppressed by their government. This unreliability in what is happening and suppression is now found in virtually every other government in the world, including the UK and US. Many seem to be operating in a manner not in the best interests of their people, but one of control and trying to force normality, which has given greater emphasis of a ‘them and us,’ situation, those who control and manipulate and those who they intend to control and manipulate. This is having the effect of making things more unstable and unpredictable in an attempt to make them more stable and predictable.
Another way it could have appeared is by infecting a different creature, going up and down the scales like a piano affair, each time it transfers up and down requiring significant modification to work and re-infect. Requiring constant close proximity, this would cause a very large number of mutations just to make this possible, probably a lot more than the ones seen in Omicron, which has not really significantly changed from its previous variant. Because of the lack of real difference, I would think it unlikely and more likely the first scenario. We are now into the 3rd year of the virus and I am still of the opinion that I had in January 2020 that we will have problems with it for at least a decade, possibly two, the current stage being nearer to the start of the outbreak, not the end, so must make plans as such.
3 years on, multiple combination versions are now starting to appear with recorded cases of ‘deltacron’, a combination of omicron and delta variants, probably from people who have host both versions at the same time. There has always been evidence of such refinements, new variants emerging, not from a single change in one type, but multiple changes happening and ‘cross pollinating’ to produce that new ‘wildly different’ variant in a longer than normal infection term. A covid infection maybe not being just from one form, but always multiples of that form, only the dominant form in the body in any period being detected, and testing catered for. So in high concentration areas you might get omicron, but with BA.1 and BA.2 subtypes and 3, XE, 4, 5, B.Q.1.1, XBB, XBB.1.5 and XBB.1.16, this does not bode well for areas that have similar type diseases that still have infections of those. What an Omicron or deltacron infection would do with something like a parallel SARS or MERS is worrying. A type B.Q.1.1, XBB.1.16 crossover with MERS or SARS would really change the situation towards a civilisation killer.
There is a lot of debate over why the Omicron variant appeared. And the odds are high for a similar type occurrence with another variant. The likeliest is with an immunocompromised person who had something like the delta variant for a long time. This likely allowed evolution of the virus where it had opportunity to try out all kinds of variations to evade the immune system. Most mutations are failures, only a small percentage of them actually being successful, but for a long-term infection a large number are generated, infecting and re-infecting, changing as it goes, the body knocking out the less successful versions, allowing only the more successful and stronger ones to continue. If it then has time, it will pass to others. If you have a large group of similarly compromised people in a community, and the overall picture is one of continued differential of vaccinated and unvaccinated, it amplifies the overall process, creating what is effectively a variant factory. The BA.2 strain of omicron has now started to expand quite fast, taking over as the main variant in circulation and not as detectable by lateral flow tests. The BA.5 strain has become dominant and is expanding in many countries of the world. There are 2 main sub-variants, BA.2.75 and BA.4.6 that are now competing with it for infectivity, India in particular BA.2.75 being more prominent than BA.5, and BA.4.6 more infective than BA.5, so either may become dominant. BA.4.6 seems more able to evade the immune system and vaccines than previous forms, but it doesn’t seem have more of an immediate mortality, though the overall cumulative motality may be higher.
China is continuing to show an increasing infection rate with BA.5.2.1.7, also known as BF.7 and with the large population in that country who are still unvaccinated there may be a large chance of a combinatory variant occurring stealthily under the guise of less problematic ones. A SARS/Omicron variant outbreak would probably not be good, as we would possible not know for a long time, after which it may have been in circulation, preventing it from being contained.
As of 06/02/2023 we are still dealing with a major disease, one that may change character completely within a short time. As far as governments and their programmes of vaccines go, it seems to be that the game is over and isn’t a threat anymore at best, a cynical move to bolster their economies at any cost at worst. Without numbers and details nobody will know what is happening and people will only know when things start to happen locally. Similar to what happened with the original outbreak and its easy and predictable spread and consequences around the world. Secrecy in containment and nature meant there was no warning for an obvious and definable threat. We can’t really blame the people whose sole job it was to look out for such things as they probably were being kept in the dark too, told not to notice it, or pressured not to say anything.
I’m now likely only to update on a weekly basis as the information is now not being released regularly, and even then the data seems to be one of not being properly recorded. You can only hope that the respective governments are being kept informed.
Current Status:
This is a continuation of Coronavirus Risks 12 Coronavirus Risks 11, Coronavirus Risks 10, Coronavirus Risks 9, Coronavirus Risks 8, Coronavirus Risks 7, Coronavirus Risks 6, a continuation of the original posts, Coronavirus Risks 5, Coronavirus Risks 4, Coronavirus Risks 3, Coronavirus Risks and Coronavirus Risks 2 that were also getting a bit long.
Backtracked mortality – 16/08/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.41% | 0.91% | 1.42% | 0.27% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.05% |
| Current | 0.26% | 2.01% | 0.53% | 0.69% |
| MA Current | 0.27% | 0.66% | 0.45% | 0.25% |
Backtracked mortality – 17/08/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.41% | 0.92% | 1.42% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.05% |
| Current | 0.25% | 1.95% | 0.37% | 0.07% |
| MA Current | 0.27% | 0.70% | 0.46% | 0.33% |
As of 18/08/2022 at 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 2,400 and 3,700 new cases in the UK a day. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 70.4% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.63% of a country and still increasing. Highest mortality currently is 3.4% of a large district or state and still increasing. Highest mortality rate of those recorded as infected in an area is around 6%. 15 countries having infection rates over 50%, 36 countries having infection rates over 40%, 52 countries having infection rates over 30%, 79 countries have infection rates over 20%, 118 countries have infection rates over 10% and 146 countries have infection rates over 5%.
Countries previously unaffected are starting to show large increases of infections and low initial mortality rates, but infectivity has increased with each new variant appearing, so re-infections are more likely, resulting in a higher cumulative figures. The mortality is a fraction of previous variants, but the cumulative effect from re-infections mean this is not so pronounced. Previous versions prior to Omicron were about 1.8% fatal with very limited re-infections, so over a long period you would get about a 2% effect. The latest variants are about 0.26% fatal with common re-infections, so may give a cumulative 0.78% effect, possibly with up to a 1.2% over very long periods, each infection causing some damage.
Long covid is about 2.6% in the world, re-infections possibly doubling that to about 5%, with permanent disability around 0.5%, re-infections possibly doubling this to about 1% or more, so the world will need to cater for this development. The very slow roll-out of next stage boosters suggests that the sense of urgency has disappeared and many thinking the problem is now over. Hopefully it can be kept to a ‘grumbling level’ that it currently is, but I’m very doubtful, waiting for a combinant variant to develop, China, Southern Africa, and the Middle East being prime candidates for this to occur.
Backtracked mortality – 19/08/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.41% | 0.92% | 1.42% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.22% | 2.17% | 0.37% | 0.33% |
| MA Current | 0.26% | 0.72% | 0.45% | 0.29% |
Backtracked mortality – 20/08/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.40% | 0.92% | 1.41% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.27% | 2.33% | 0.41% | 0.64% |
| MA Current | 0.26% | 0.75% | 0.42% | 0.29% |
Backtracked mortality – 21/08/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.40% | 0.92% | 1.41% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.24% | 2.33% | 0.37% | 0.69% |
| MA Current | 0.26% | 0.77% | 0.41% | 0.29% |
Backtracked mortality – 22/08/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.40% | 0.92% | 1.41% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.24% | 1.94% | 0.42% | 0.49% |
| MA Current | 0.26% | 0.77% | 0.39% | 0.37% |
Backtracked mortality – 24/08/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.40% | 0.93% | 1.41% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.22% | 2.89% | 0.43% | 0.20% |
| MA Current | 0.27% | 0.87% | 0.39% | 0.85% |
Backtracked mortality – 27/08/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.39% | 0.94% | 1.41% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.29% | 2.96% | 0.46% | 0.34% |
| MA Current | 0.25% | 0.99% | 0.43% | 0.81% |
World cases are continuing as a steady rate, falling in the US and UK. Mortality in UK is still continuing at about 1,000 more deaths a week than should happen at this time of year which doesn’t bode well for winter. Backtracked mortality for the UK still continues worryingly high, suggesting lack of health services is now causing twice as many deaths as covid.
The figures are weekly numbers based on past years removing the influence of Covid as far as possible.
Backtracked mortality – 01/09/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.39% | 0.93% | 1.40% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.28% | 1.47% | 0.59% | 0.09% |
| MA Current | 0.24% | 0.60% | 0.63% | 0.62% |
Backtracked mortality – 05/09/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.38% | 0.93% | 1.40% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.25% | 1.67% | 0.41% | 0.59% |
| MA Current | 0.25% | 0.79% | 0.49% | 0.62% |
The UK rates are still pretty unreliable as data is being restricted to dubious weekly averages of an unreliable set of figures, but cases in the South West seem to be increasing. Maybe a blip, but something to watch out for. ‘Unannounced is unarmed,’ as they say, and the current government seems to want to keep people in the dark about risks as much as possible. Perfectly natural behaviour in a totalitarian state, not in a democracy where you are supposed to have ‘an informed choice.’ At least the move of shutting down different opinions on the internet has slowed down under the name of ‘purging misinformation,’ ‘fact checking’ starting to back-fire a bit on those previously pushing it when applied in their direction.
I myself have Covid at the moment, probably BA.5, but it was quite troublesome and laid me low for a couple of days, even though I have had all the permissable vaccinations. You think, ‘this is a mild one?’ Other different sub-variants are out there in large numbers in various countries, so the problem is not over, just taking a short vacation, more ‘other side of the world’ and planning its next move.
Mortality is falling as omicron has replaced the more immediately dangerous other variants, but overall may not affect the picture at it may return more often to claim further victims, so over a 10 year period mortality may be roughly the same. Vaccine production and take up is poor, many production lines starting to close down or revert back to previous areas, so there is a major problem harbouring and accumulating. About 90,000 people still have the virus in the UK, 1.8 million in the US and 14 million in the world, but it doesn’t have the seasonal flow of influenza, being a constant background level that may have the ability to erupt again. I think it likely that is will have a constant affect of dampening peoples immune system to other diseases, so we may see many more outbreaks of ones we thought gone, such as polio, measles, mumps, rubella, scarlet fever, whooping cough, etc, as well has an increase in shingles, especially with the lower levels of immunisation uptake for those things by ‘new-age parenting ideas,’ so we may see a sudden increase in ‘new-age mortality.’
In determining mortality we have age, occupation, BMI, sex, ethnic group, population density, social structure, climate, blood grouping, genetic makeup, healthcare levels, nutrition levels, mobility, social awareness and government actions or lack of it, all playing a part.
Backtracked mortality – 06/09/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.38% | 0.93% | 1.39% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.25% | 1.69% | 0.40% | 0.64% |
| MA Current | 0.25% | 0.84% | 0.45% | 0.66% |
The dose rate of vaccines per person in the UK is 1.77, but now probably an effective level of 1.32.
Backtracked mortality – 07/09/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.38% | 0.93% | 1.39% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.25% | 1.69% | 0.19% | 0.14% |
| MA Current | 0.24% | 0.88% | 0.37% | 0.66% |
Normal UK mortality should be around the 9100 mark for this time of year that gives an average UK longevity of about 80. I would estimate that the UK mortality if you remove the effects of Covid have increased from +1000 to about +1200 a week above what you would normally expect for this time of year. If this continues you may expect the mortality in winter to reach around 15,000 a week, more if other diseases such as influenza cut in, so it may reduce average UK longevity to somewhere around 70, or generally having a 10 years shorter lifetime than before covid occurred.
Backtracked mortality – 09/09/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.37% | 0.94% | 1.39% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.25% | 2.34% | 0.35% | 0.21% |
| MA Current | 0.23% | 1.18% | 0.36% | 0.50% |
As of today, 11/09/2022, in the world there have been 613.8 million cases with about an estimated 12.6 million active cases, increasing at +1.30% per day, and 6.52 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 23.6 million cases and 189,320 deaths. I suspect the actual number is closer to 263,300. It has an estimated 84,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 97.1 million cases and 1,075,700 deaths with about 1.7 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.39%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 1.37%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 0.94%. About 2% of known cases are still active in the world, 0.4% in the UK, 1.8% in the US.
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.37% | 0.94% | 1.39% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.29% | 2.34% | 0.37% | 0.76% |
| MA Current | 0.23% | 1.34% | 0.37% | 0.50% |
As of 11/09/2022 at 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 3,600 and 5,700 new cases in the UK a day. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 70.3%, highest mortality currently is 0.64% of a country and still increasing. Highest mortality rate of those recorded as infected in an area is around 6%. 17 countries having infection rates over 50%, 36 countries having infection rates over 40%, 53 countries having infection rates over 30%, 82 countries have infection rates over 20%, 119 countries have infection rates over 10% and 147 countries have infection rates over 5%.
Long covid is about 15 million in the world, about 2.45%, with permanent disability around 4,140,000 0.74%, re-infections possibly doubling this to about 1% or more, the UK showing about 550,000 with permanent disablement of about 194,000.
As of today, 22/09/2022, in the world there have been 619 million cases with about an estimated 9.9 million active cases, increasing at +1.25% per day, and 6.54 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 22.2 million cases and 190,400 deaths. I suspect the actual number is closer to 265,000. It has an estimated 86,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 97.8 million cases and 1,080,000 deaths with about 1.25 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.1%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 1.1%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 0.73%. About 1.6% of known cases are still active in the world, 0.3% in the UK, 1.3% in the US.
Backtracked Mortality:
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.35% | 0.96% | 1.38% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.37% | 2.49% | 0.35% | 0.34% |
| MA Current | 0.23% | 1.45% | 0.57% | 0.77% |
As of 22/09/2022 at 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 3,760 and 5,870 new cases in the UK a day. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 70.4%, highest mortality currently is 0.64% of a country and still increasing. Highest mortality rate of those recorded as infected in an area is around 6%. 18 countries having infection rates over 50%, 36 countries having infection rates over 40%, 54 countries having infection rates over 30%, 83 countries have infection rates over 20%, 120 countries have infection rates over 10% and 148 countries have infection rates over 5%.
Long covid is about 14.6 million in the world, about 2.38%, with permanent disability around 4,436,000 0.80%, re-infections possibly doubling this to about 1.2% or more, the UK showing about 518,000 with permanent disablement of about 193,900.
Backtracked Mortality – 24/09/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.35% | 0.95% | 1.38% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.42% | 1.62% | 0.50% | 0.70% |
| MA Current | 0.23% | 1.31% | 0.48% | 0.83% |
Backtracked Mortality – 26/09/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.35% | 0.96% | 1.37% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.42% | 1.50% | 0.46% | 0.57% |
| MA Current | 0.26% | 1.33% | 0.48% | 0.83% |
Backtracked Mortality – 26/09/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.35% | 0.96% | 1.37% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.32% | 1.49% | 0.43% | 1.07% |
| MA Current | 0.26% | 1.35% | 0.50% | 0.83% |
Backtracked Mortality – 04/10/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.34% | 0.96% | 1.37% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.38% | 1.10% | 0.89% | 0.57% |
| MA Current | 0.28% | 1.37% | 0.62% | 0.66% |
Currently I would estimate that given the time of year, the mild weather and the social conditions present the UK has about 16% more people dying a year than should normally happen.
Backtracked Mortality – 06/10/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.34% | 0.96% | 1.37% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.35% | 1.04% | 0.89% | 0.57% |
| MA Current | 0.27% | 1.34% | 0.62% | 0.15% |
From what data can now be obtained we have about 14.2 million active cases in the world, 54,000 in the UK and 505,000 in the US. About 1,200 people are dying in the UK more than is expected for this time of year and the mild weather compared to previous years. A similar figure for the US is about 2,000 more. About 80% are probably down to curtailed medical and social services rather than covid. In SIngapore the Omicron BA.2.75 variant seems to be expanding quite quickly.
Of the current main 11 variants, Omicron B.1.1.529, B.1.1.7, B.1.617.2, BA.1, BA.2 & BA.5 are the most predominant, with places like Germany B.1.617.2 and BA.2 being the most predominant now, with B.A.617.2, BA.1 and BA.2 having the most new cases, spreading from area to area.
Due to pressure of work and working long hours I am finding it hard to keep the two websites updated on a daily or regular basis. Hopefully with time I can get back to them.
Backtracked Mortality – 11/10/2022
The released figures for the UK in the past probably didn’t take into account for the recent lack of recording and testing that is now happening in the UK. There is some evidence that a number of developed countries are actively suppressing them to try to help with their trade and commerce. A good compensatory calculation being that only about 1/3rd of cases are now being reported or recorded, so even the backtracked current and MA current figures were out by about 3 times what they probably are. The Average, Mac and Min are probably close to what they should be. If you want to keep the past level of calculation for consistency then simply multiply them by 3, but the new figures are probably a better idea of the current situation.
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.33% | 0.96% | 1.36% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.33% | 0.52% | 0.48% | 0.33% |
| MA Current | 0.29% | 0.58% | 0.77% | 0.11% |
The numbers are again increasing in the UK, similar to the continent, where the new daily cases for Germany were around 172,000. Mortality for the unvaccinated is still probably about 3 times that of the vaccinated for Omicron, compared to 10 times for variants like Alpha, Beta and Delta, but uptake of vaccines is a quarter of previous ones. This is based on comparing mainly unvaccinated areas and countries to mainly vaccinated ones, compensating for median age advantage.
Mortality is still around about 1,100 more deaths than should be occurring each week around this times of year and level of climate in the UK, so about 160 a day, deaths reported from covid being around 41, so 3/4’s of extra deaths being pretty unaccounted for. The UK life expectancy at birth based on past years suggests that it has gone down to 77.8 from the 81.2 years prior to covid, but about 5 years less for males than the 2 years less for females.
Both BQ.1.1 and XBB seem to be expending, the main variant that seems to be doing this BQ.1.1, but both are more infectious and able to evade defences a lot more.
Backtracked Mortality – 15/10/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.32% | 0.97% | 1.36% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.43% | 0.34% | 0.43% | 0.24% |
| MA Current | 0.30% | 0.56% | 0.46% | 0.25% |
The backtracked mortality is becoming a lot less accurate as cases at all levels are now not being reported. Generally I would suspect that 2/3rds of cases are now this, so the figures above are based on this principle, otherwise the current and MA current figures would be 3 times the ones above, UK MA current suggesting 1.68% rather than the likely 0.56%. UK mortality is still around 1,100 more people dying a week that is expected for the time of year and mild weather, probably not from covid, but from lack of social and medical services and other medical reasons.
From recent discoveries and articles, it’s now probably about 3 1/4 years since the virus appeared and just under 3 years before I started watching it with some concern. It’s still my view from back in halfway through January 2020 that we will have the disease as a problem for a decade, maybe two, and need to tailor our responses, strategy and plans for this.
Backtracked Mortality – 20/10/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.32% | 0.97% | 1.36% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.34% | 0.39% | 0.32% | 0.42% |
| MA Current | 0.34% | 0.57% | 0.49% | 0.18% |
Backtracked Mortality – 24/10/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.31% | 0.97% | 1.36% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.32% | 0.40% | 0.39% | 0.44% |
| MA Current | 0.37% | 0.55% | 0.37% | 0.30% |
| Median Age | 31 | 40.4 | 38.4 | 30.5 |
Percentage of UK by Vaccination Type
| 1 Dose | 2nd Dose | 1st Booster | 2nd Booster |
| 68% | 62% | 49% | 21% |
As of today, 30/10/2022, in the world there have been 636 million cases with about an estimated 9.9 million active cases, increasing at +1% per day, and 6.6 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 23.9 million cases and 193,800 deaths. I suspect the actual number is closer to 269,000. It has an estimated 91,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 99.4 million cases and 1.1 million deaths with about 505,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.1%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 1.1%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 0.81%. About 1% of known cases are still active in the world, 0.5% in the UK, 1% in the US.
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.31% | 0.97% | 1.35% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.34% | 0.41% | 0.33% | 0.44% |
| MA Current | 0.35% | 0.50% | 0.39% | 0.61% |
As of 30/10/2022, because the official UK figures are no longer to be relied upon I am estimating numbers of cases and mortality based on indirect methods, so at 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 14,400 and 22,500 new cases in the UK a day. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 70.3%, highest mortality currently is 0.64% of a country and still increasing. Highest mortality rate of those recorded as infected in an area was around 6%. 20 countries having infection rates over 50%, 38 countries having infection rates over 40%, 55 countries having infection rates over 30%, 84 countries have infection rates over 20%, 122 countries have infection rates over 10% and 150 countries have infection rates over 5%. Many new countries have now been added to the list of infected areas.
Long covid is about 14.4 million in the world, about 2.35%, with permanent disability around 4,451,000 0.80%, re-infections possibly doubling this to about 1.2% or more, the UK showing about 499,200 with permanent disablement of about 195,500.
Backtracked Mortality – 01/11/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.30% | 0.97% | 1.35% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.28% | 0.42% | 0.31% | 0.41% |
| MA Current | 0.35% | 0.48% | 0.35% | 0.57% |
At an estimate, about 1,800 or people are dying a week, or 250 a day, in the UK more than should be for this time of year and this mild winter period.
Backtracked Mortality – 03/11/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.30% | 0.97% | 1.35% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.34% | 0.44% | 0.52% | 0.94% |
| MA Current | 0.34% | 0.43% | 0.36% | 0.76% |
Backtracked Mortality – 05/11/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.30% | 0.99% | 1.35% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.46% | 0.86% | 0.74% | 0.39% |
| MA Current | 0.35% | 0.60% | 0.50% | 0.76% |
Backtracked Mortality – 10/11/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.29% | 1.00% | 1.35% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.31% | 0.82% | 0.72% | 0.51% |
| MA Current | 0.36% | 0.57% | 0.76% | 0.68% |
Backtracked Mortality – 11/11/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.29% | 1.00% | 1.35% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.34% | 0.82% | 0.68% | 0.32% |
| MA Current | 0.35% | 0.56% | 0.76% | 0.68% |
Backtracked Mortality – 12/11/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.29% | 1.00% | 1.35% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.39% | 0.65% | 0.39% | 0.94% |
| MA Current | 0.34% | 0.52% | 0.68% | 0.68% |
Backtracked Mortality – 16/11/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.29% | 1.01% | 1.35% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.43% | 0.73% | 0.41% | 0.65% |
| MA Current | 0.35% | 0.49% | 0.59% | 0.68% |
Backtracked Mortality – 18/11/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.28% | 1.01% | 1.35% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.38% | 0.97% | 0.45% | 0.18% |
| MA Current | 0.33% | 0.50% | 0.31% | 0.41% |
Backtracked Mortality – 21/11/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.28% | 1.02% | 1.34% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.44% | 0.47% | 0.09% | |
| MA Current | 0.32% | 0.53% | 0.43% | 0.41% |
I’ve decided to stop including the current UK figures for the moment as the numbers seem to be confusing and little is being released. About 1900 a week (20%), or about 270 a day more people seem to be dying in the UK than expected for this time of year and the relatively mild weather, mostly in the South East and those over 75, and may be fractionally more severe as that population proportion may be 7% smaller than it should be compared to the start of the year. This may equate to a figure of 2040.
Backtracked Mortality – 25/11/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.28% | 1.04% | 1.34% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.45% | 0.62% | 0.26% | |
| MA Current | 0.37% | 0.59% | 0.46% | 0.43% |
As of today, 27/11/2022, in the world there have been 645.2 million cases with about an estimated 4.3 million active cases, increasing at +1% per day, and 6.64 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 24 million cases and 197,400 deaths. I suspect the actual number is closer to 275,000. It has an estimated 33,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 100.5 million cases and 1.1 million deaths with about 375,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.09%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 1.03%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 0.82%. From suspected deaths it would be 1.15%. Due to the number of re-infections and non-notifiable infections the number of active cases is more or less irrelevant now.
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.28% | 1.04% | 1.34% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.46% | 0.70% | 0.44% | 0.22% |
| MA Current | 0.40% | 0.58% | 0.47% | 0.31% |
As of 27/11/2022 at 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 2,200 and 3,500 new cases in the UK a day. Reporting is very sparse, if at all, so we are now more or less in the dark. Well informed public has ceased to be, so we are more or less on our own as far as warnings or advance knowledge is concerned. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 70.4%, highest mortality currently is 0.65% of a country and still increasing. Highest mortality rate of those recorded as infected in an area is around 6%. 6 countries having infection rates over 60%, 23 countries having infection rates over 50%, 40 countries having infection rates over 40%, 58 countries having infection rates over 30%, 85 countries have infection rates over 20%, 123 countries have infection rates over 10% and 151 countries have infection rates over 5%, all countries now having had cases and deaths.
Long covid is about 14.2 million in the world, about 2.2% of cases, with permanent disability around 4,554,000, about 0.7% of cases, the UK showing about 495,100 with permanent disablement of about 195,800.
Backtracked Mortality – 29/11/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.27% | 1.04% | 1.34% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.42% | 0.83% | 0.50% | 0.19% |
| MA Current | 0.42% | 0.36% | 0.49% | 0.28% |
Backtracked Mortality – 05/12/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.27% | 1.04% | 1.34% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.36% | 0.83% | 0.38% | 0.09% |
| MA Current | 0.41% | 0.30% | 0.34% | 0.31% |
Backtracked Mortality – 06/12/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.27% | 1.05% | 1.33% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.43% | 0.51% | 0.32% | 0.22% |
| MA Current | 0.42% | 0.29% | 0.35% | 0.27% |
Backtracked Mortality – 07/12/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.26% | 1.05% | 1.33% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.45% | 0.53% | 0.57% | 0.22% |
| MA Current | 0.41% | 0.29% | 0.39% | 0.27% |
The numbers of cases seem to be doubling every 46 weeks at the moment. The number of cases is 143% higher than this time last year, though the deaths are only 26% higher which suggests mortality from the latest variants are about 52% of previous ones, but it’s likely that only about 50% of infections are now considered worthy of being reported, so the actual number will probably be near 25%, mainly due to widespread vaccinations.
The previous similar period was 194% higher cases for 141% higher deaths and an average mortality of 1.9%, so around 82% of previous variants that started out in China.
From looking at the effect on unvaccinated populations it seems likely that the Omicron variants have about a 0.9% mortality, whereas for heavily vaccinated populations it’s closer to 0.25%, compared to previous variants which had about 2.3% for unvaccinated and 0.65% for fully vaccinated.
Backtracked Mortality – 10/12/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.26% | 1.05% | 1.33% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.43% | 0.57% | 0.58% | 0.35% |
| MA Current | 0.46% | 0.32% | 0.49% | 0.27% |
Backtracked Mortality – 11/12/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.26% | 1.04% | 1.33% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.42% | 0.45% | 0.60% | 0.35% |
| MA Current | 0.47% | 0.70% | 0.55% | 0.27% |
Backtracked Mortality – 17/12/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.25% | 1.03% | 1.33% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.40% | 0.45% | 0.69% | 0.51% |
| MA Current | 0.49% | 0.58% | 0.72% | 0.35% |
Backtracked Mortality – 18/12/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.25% | 1.03% | 1.33% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.33% | 0.45% | 0.48% | 0.35% |
| MA Current | 0.49% | 0.61% | 0.75% | 0.35% |
Backtracked Mortality – 24/12/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.25% | 1.03% | 1.33% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.41% | 0.45% | 0.39% | 0.48% |
| MA Current | 0.49% | 0.47% | 0.36% | 0.27% |
Backtracked Mortality – 25/12/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.24% | 1.03% | 1.33% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.35% | 0.69% | 0.31% | 0.36% |
| MA Current | 0.47% | 0.48% | 0.35% | 0.26% |
| Median Age | 31 | 40.4 | 38.4 | 30.5 |
Backtracked Mortality – 31/12/2022
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.24% | 1.03% | 1.32% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.30% | 0.83% | 0.42% | 0.32% |
| MA Current | 0.38% | 0.66% | 0.33% | 0.31% |
| Median Age | 31 | 40.4 | 38.4 | 30.5 |
Backtracked Mortality – 01/01/2023
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.24% | 1.03% | 1.32% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.30% | 0.53% | 0.56% | 0.47% |
| MA Current | 0.37% | 0.65% | 0.61% | 0.31% |
| Median Age | 31 | 40.4 | 38.4 | 30.5 |
Backtracked Mortality – 06/01/2023
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.23% | 1.03% | 1.32% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.29% | 0.72% | 0.11% | 0.18% |
| MA Current | 0.31% | 0.69% | 0.61% | 0.30% |
| Median Age | 31 | 40.4 | 38.4 | 30.5 |
It’s interesting that the UK hasn’t really published case figures for over a month. Influenza is at its normal winter peak compared to last year, maybe a few more hundred a week, but at the moment you could say that around about an extra 2,500 people are dying a week than would be expected
Backtracked Mortality – 07/01/2023
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.23% | 1.03% | 1.32% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.36% | 0.72% | 0.13% | 0.77% |
| MA Current | 0.32% | 0.69% | 0.42% | 0.27% |
| Median Age | 31 | 40.4 | 38.4 | 30.5 |
As of today, 11/01/2023, in the world there have been 669.6 million cases with about an estimated 4.5 million active cases, increasing at +1% per day, and 6.72 million reported deaths. The UK has now an estimated 24.4 million cases and 200,000 deaths. I suspect the actual number is closer to 278,000. It has an estimated 53,000 known active cases. The UK really stopped reporting in July last year, so any released figures are now pretty suspect and deemed very unreliable. The US is reporting 103.2 million cases and 1.12 million deaths with about 638,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.09%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 1%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 0.83%. From suspected deaths it would be 1.14%. Due to the number of re-infections and non-notifiable infections the number of active cases is more or less irrelevant now.
Backtracked mortality is as below:
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.23% | 1.03% | 1.32% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.58% | 0.72% | 0.46% | 0.84% |
| MA Current | 0.36% | 0.72% | 0.65% | 0.27% |
| Median Age | 31 | 40.4 | 38.4 | 30.5 |
As of 11/01/2023 at 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 4,200 and 6,600 new cases in the UK a day. Reporting is very sparse, if at all, so we are now more or less in the dark. Well informed public has ceased to be, so we are more or less on our own as far as warnings, precautions or advance knowledge is concerned. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 70.4%, highest mortality currently is 0.65% of a country and still increasing. Highest mortality rate of those recorded as infected in an area is around 6%. 10 countries having infection rates over 60%, 25 countries having infection rates over 50%, 45 countries having infection rates over 40%, 62 countries having infection rates over 30%, 88 countries have infection rates over 20%, 126 countries have infection rates over 10% and 151 countries have infection rates over 5%, all countries now having had cases and deaths.
Long covid is about 14 million in the world, about 2.1% of cases, with permanent disability around 4,655,000, about 0.7% of cases, the UK showing about 481,400 long covid with permanent disablement of about 197,800.
Backtracked Mortality – 16/01/2023
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.22% | 1.03% | 1.31% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.47% | 0.72% | 0.52% | 0.39% |
| MA Current | 0.39% | 0.80% | 0.59% | 0.33% |
Backtracked Mortality – 20/01/2023
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.22% | 1.04% | 1.31% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.60% | 0.48% | 0.36% | 0.30% |
| MA Current | 0.44% | 0.53% | 0.49% | 0.33% |
Backtracked Mortality – 21/01/2023
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.22% | 1.04% | 1.31% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.50% | 0.72% | 0.55% | 0.27% |
| MA Current | 0.44% | 0.87% | 0.86% | 0.65% |
Backtracked Mortality – 25/01/2023
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.22% | 1.07% | 1.31% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.44% | 0.76% | 0.60% | 0.72% |
| MA Current | 0.46% | 0.56% | 0.65% | 0.64% |
Backtracked Mortality – 02/02/2023
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.21% | 1.08% | 1.31% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.45% | 0.74% | 0.65% | 0.25% |
| MA Current | 0.44% | 0.68% | 0.71% | 0.58% |
| Median Age | 31 | 40.4 | 38.4 | 30.5 |
Backtracked Mortality – 05/02/2023
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.21% | 1.08% | 1.31% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.69% | 0.74% | 0.72% | 0.39% |
| MA Current | 0.45% | 0.69% | 0.71% | 0.56% |
| Median Age | 31 | 40.4 | 38.4 | 30.5 |
It is becoming increasing difficult to give meaningful figures now. Many countries now refusing to give data, so I cannot be sure as to the accuracy of any figures. Even the best countries in the world noted for the previous accuracy and standards of their figures have become perverted by political interference, so apart from internal reporting that nobody except those in high places have access to, the government statisticians are pretty much supernumeraries now, getting paid for providing no public service. In most countries the numbers are still being recorded and categorised, but they are now not for release to the public, being ‘owned’ by the government, not it’s people. A sort of ‘lack of knowledge for the common good.’ You do wonder how the world has descended into regarding their populations as ‘ignorant sheep to be herded,’ but that is the set of current governments for you, most divorced and insulated from reality.
But, there is a trend behind this of unrecorded rises in cases and over mortality levels, which suggests that either people have become complacent and are not getting things like booster shots available to them, or that like with many medicines, they are simply not available anymore in the quantities needed, so the health organisations in all countries are not pressing the importance that would show the lack of services and resources, regarding the steady increase as acceptable collateral damage, most of the deaths being considered as less important as they are mostly among the now non-productive members of the community.
Estimated Backtracked Mortality – 06/02/2023
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.21% | 1.09% | 1.31% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.74% | 0.74% | 0.72% | 0.39% |
| MA Current | 0.44% | 0.69% | 0.70% | 0.63% |
| Median Age | 31 | 40.4 | 38.4 | 30.5 |
Estimated Backtracked Mortality – 13/02/2023
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.20% | 1.08% | 1.31% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.67% | 0.81% | 0.68% | 0.14% |
| MA Current | 0.44% | 0.90% | 0.77% | 0.45% |
| Median Age | 31 | 40.4 | 38.4 | 30.5 |
13/02/2023 – The end of february and the start of march will likely be indicators for the rest of the year, if the information is recorded or released. I must admit I am becoming less interested in keeping up the covid figures daily on my own system, as reliable data is becoming next to impossible to find and I need to do extra work elsewhere to meet expenses.
Estimated Backtracked Mortality – 24/02/2023
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.20% | 1.08% | 1.31% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.55% | 0.61% | 0.50% | 0.56% |
| MA Current | 0.47% | 0.74% | 0.64% | 0.57% |
| Median Age | 31 | 40.4 | 38.4 | 30.5 |
The graph tends to suggest that Covid has been forgotten as an active and present risk. Hopefully the next month won’t show too bad a problem, but it is a worrying time.
Estimated Backtracked Mortality – 28/02/2023
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.19% | 1.09% | 1.30% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.53% | 0.72% | 0.74% | 0.27% |
| MA Current | 0.46% | 0.74% | 0.47% | 0.62% |
| Median Age | 31 | 40.4 | 38.4 | 30.5 |
Estimated Backtracked Mortality – 11/03/2023
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.19% | 1.09% | 1.30% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 0.62% | 0.53% | 0.74% | 0.49% |
| MA Current | 0.50% | 0.52% | 0.66% | 0.48% |
| Median Age | 31 | 40.4 | 38.4 | 30.5 |
Estimated Backtracked Mortality – 25/03/2023
| World | UK | US | Israel | |
| Average | 1.18% | 1.09% | 1.30% | 0.33% |
| Max | 6.08% | 3.43% | 3.79% | 0.87% |
| Min | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.06% |
| Current | 1.09% | 0.81% | 1.19% | 0.50% |
| MA Current | 0.74% | 0.53% | 0.83% | 0.61% |
| Median Age | 31 | 40.4 | 38.4 | 30.5 |