Coronavirus Risks 13 (SARS-CoV-2)

I’ve been following the virus for 144 weeks now. Originally, I thought that it would be very limited, but that changed about 142 weeks ago, when the numbers began to rise and we found out more about it.

I still have the opinion I had right at the start in January 2020 that it was coming our way big time and we will have the effects for at least a decade, possibly two.

Another way it could have appeared is by infecting a different creature, going up and down the scales like a piano affair, each time it transfers up and down requiring significant modification to work and re-infect. Requiring constant close proximity, this would cause a very large number of mutations just to make this possible, probably a lot more than the ones seen in Omicron, which has not really significantly changed from its previous variant. Because of the lack of real difference, I would think it unlikely and more likely the first scenario. We are now into the 3rd year of the virus and I am still of the opinion that I had in January 2020 that we will have problems with it for at least a decade, possibly two, the current stage being nearer to the start of the outbreak, not the end, so must make plans as such.

Multiple combination versions are now starting to appear with recorded cases of ‘deltacron’, a combination of omicron and delta variants, probably from people who have host both versions at the same time. There has always been evidence of such refinements, new variants emerging, not from a single change in one type, but multiple changes happening and ‘cross pollinating’ to produce that new ‘wildly different’ variant in a longer than normal infection term. A covid infection maybe not being just from one form, but always multiples of that form, only the dominant form in the body in any period being detected, and testing catered for. So in high concentration areas you might get omicron, but with BA.1 and BA.2 subtypes  and 3, XE, 4 & 5, this does not bode well for areas that have similar type diseases that still have infections of those. What an Omicron or deltacron infection would do with something like a parallel SARS or MERS is worrying. A type 4 or 5 crossover with MERS or SARS would really change the situation towards a civilisation killer.

There is a lot of debate over why the Omicron variant appeared. And the odds are high for a similar type occurrence with another variant. The likeliest is with an immunocompromised person who had something like the delta variant for a long time. This likely allowed evolution of the virus where it had opportunity to try out all kinds of variations to evade the immune system. Most mutations are failures, only a small percentage of them actually being successful, but for a long-term infection a large number are generated, infecting and re-infecting, changing as it goes, the body knocking out the less successful versions, allowing only the more successful and stronger ones to continue. If it then has time, it will pass to others. If you have a large group of similarly compromised people in a community, and the overall picture is one of continued differential of vaccinated and unvaccinated, it amplifies the overall process, creating what is effectively a variant factory. The BA.2 strain of omicron has now started to expand quite fast, taking over as the main variant in circulation and not as detectable by lateral flow tests. The BA.5 strain has become dominant and is expanding in many countries of the world. There are 2 main sub-variants, BA.2.75 and BA.4.6 that are now competing with it for infectivity, India in particular BA.2.75 being more prominent than BA.5, and BA.4.6 more infective than BA.5, so either may become dominant. BA.4.6 seems more able to evade the immune system and vaccines than previous forms, but it doesn’t seem have more of an immediate mortality, though the overall cumulative motality may be higher.

China is continuing to show an increasing infection rate and with the large population in that country there may be a large chance of a combinatory variant occurring stealthily under the guise of less problematic ones. A SARS/Omicron variant outbreak would probably not be good, as we would possible not know for a long time, after which it may have been in circulation, preventing it from being contained.

Current Status:

This is a continuation of Coronavirus Risks 12 Coronavirus Risks 11, Coronavirus Risks 10, Coronavirus Risks 9, Coronavirus Risks 8,  Coronavirus Risks 7, Coronavirus Risks 6, a continuation of the original posts, Coronavirus Risks 5, Coronavirus Risks 4, Coronavirus Risks 3, Coronavirus Risks and Coronavirus Risks 2 that were also getting a bit long.

Backtracked mortality – 16/08/2022

 WorldUKUSIsrael
Average1.41%0.91%1.42%0.27%
Max6.08%3.43%3.79%0.87%
Min0.15%0.07%0.17%0.05%
Current0.26%2.01%0.53%0.69%
MA Current0.27%0.66%0.45%0.25%

Backtracked mortality – 17/08/2022

 WorldUKUSIsrael
Average1.41%0.92%1.42%0.33%
Max6.08%3.43%3.79%0.87%
Min0.15%0.07%0.17%0.05%
Current0.25%1.95%0.37%0.07%
MA Current0.27%0.70%0.46%0.33%

As of 18/08/2022 at 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 2,400 and 3,700 new cases in the UK a day. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 70.4% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.63% of a country and still increasing. Highest mortality currently is 3.4% of a large district or state and still increasing. Highest mortality rate of those recorded as infected in an area is around 6%. 15 countries having infection rates over 50%, 36 countries having infection rates over 40%, 52 countries having infection rates over 30%, 79 countries have infection rates over 20%, 118 countries have infection rates over 10% and 146 countries have infection rates over 5%.

Countries previously unaffected are starting to show large increases of infections and low initial mortality rates, but infectivity has increased with each new variant appearing, so re-infections are more likely, resulting in a higher cumulative figures. The mortality is a fraction of previous variants, but the cumulative effect from re-infections mean this is not so pronounced. Previous versions prior to Omicron were about 1.8% fatal with very limited re-infections, so over a long period you would get about a 2% effect. The latest variants are about 0.26% fatal with common re-infections, so may give a cumulative 0.78% effect, possibly with up to a 1.2% over very long periods, each infection causing some damage.

Long covid is about 2.6% in the world, re-infections possibly doubling that to about 5%, with permanent disability around 0.5%, re-infections possibly doubling this to about 1% or more, so the world will need to cater for this development. The very slow roll-out of next stage boosters suggests that the sense of urgency has disappeared and many thinking the problem is now over. Hopefully it can be kept to a ‘grumbling level’ that it currently is, but I’m very doubtful, waiting for a combinant variant to develop, China, Southern Africa, and the Middle East being prime candidates for this to occur.

Backtracked mortality – 19/08/2022

 WorldUKUSIsrael
Average1.41%0.92%1.42%0.33%
Max6.08%3.43%3.79%0.87%
Min0.15%0.07%0.17%0.06%
Current0.22%2.17%0.37%0.33%
MA Current0.26%0.72%0.45%0.29%

Backtracked mortality – 20/08/2022

 WorldUKUSIsrael
Average1.40%0.92%1.41%0.33%
Max6.08%3.43%3.79%0.87%
Min0.15%0.07%0.17%0.06%
Current0.27%2.33%0.41%0.64%
MA Current0.26%0.75%0.42%0.29%

Backtracked mortality – 21/08/2022

 WorldUKUSIsrael
Average1.40%0.92%1.41%0.33%
Max6.08%3.43%3.79%0.87%
Min0.15%0.07%0.17%0.06%
Current0.24%2.33%0.37%0.69%
MA Current0.26%0.77%0.41%0.29%

Backtracked mortality – 22/08/2022

 WorldUKUSIsrael
Average1.40%0.92%1.41%0.33%
Max6.08%3.43%3.79%0.87%
Min0.15%0.07%0.17%0.06%
Current0.24%1.94%0.42%0.49%
MA Current0.26%0.77%0.39%0.37%

Backtracked mortality – 24/08/2022

 WorldUKUSIsrael
Average1.40%0.93%1.41%0.33%
Max6.08%3.43%3.79%0.87%
Min0.15%0.07%0.17%0.06%
Current0.22%2.89%0.43%0.20%
MA Current0.27%0.87%0.39%0.85%

Backtracked mortality – 27/08/2022

 WorldUKUSIsrael
Average1.39%0.94%1.41%0.33%
Max6.08%3.43%3.79%0.87%
Min0.15%0.07%0.17%0.06%
Current0.29%2.96%0.46%0.34%
MA Current0.25%0.99%0.43%0.81%

World cases are continuing as a steady rate, falling in the US and UK. Mortality in UK is still continuing at about 1,000 more deaths a week than should happen at this time of year which doesn’t bode well for winter. Backtracked mortality for the UK still continues worryingly high, suggesting lack of health services is now causing twice as many deaths as covid.

The figures are weekly numbers based on past years removing the influence of Covid as far as possible.

Backtracked mortality – 01/09/2022

 WorldUKUSIsrael
Average1.39%0.93%1.40%0.33%
Max6.08%3.43%3.79%0.87%
Min0.15%0.07%0.17%0.06%
Current0.28%1.47%0.59%0.09%
MA Current0.24%0.60%0.63%0.62%

Backtracked mortality – 05/09/2022

 WorldUKUSIsrael
Average1.38%0.93%1.40%0.33%
Max6.08%3.43%3.79%0.87%
Min0.15%0.07%0.17%0.06%
Current0.25%1.67%0.41%0.59%
MA Current0.25%0.79%0.49%0.62%

The UK rates are still pretty unreliable as data is being restricted to dubious weekly averages of an unreliable set of figures, but cases in the South West seem to be increasing. Maybe a blip, but something to watch out for. ‘Unannounced is unarmed,’ as they say, and the current government seems to want to keep people in the dark about risks as much as possible. Perfectly natural behaviour in a totalitarian state, not in a democracy where you are supposed to have ‘an informed choice.’ At least the move of shutting down different opinions on the internet has slowed down under the name of ‘purging misinformation,’ ‘fact checking’ starting to back-fire a bit on those previously pushing it when applied in their direction.

I myself have Covid at the moment, probably BA.5, but it was quite troublesome and laid me low for a couple of days, even though I have had all the permissable vaccinations. You think, ‘this is a mild one?’ Other different sub-variants are out there in large numbers in various countries, so the problem is not over, just taking a short vacation, more ‘other side of the world’ and planning its next move.

Mortality is falling as omicron has replaced the more immediately dangerous other variants, but overall may not affect the picture at it may return more often to claim further victims, so over a 10 year period mortality may be roughly the same. Vaccine production and take up is poor, many production lines starting to close down or revert back to previous areas, so there is a major problem harbouring and accumulating. About 90,000 people still have the virus in the UK, 1.8 million in the US and 14 million in the world, but it doesn’t have the seasonal flow of influenza, being a constant background level that may have the ability to erupt again. I think it likely that is will have a constant affect of dampening peoples immune system to other diseases, so we may see many more outbreaks of ones we thought gone, such as polio, measles, mumps, rubella, scarlet fever, whooping cough, etc, as well has an increase in shingles, especially with the lower levels of immunisation uptake for those things by ‘new-age parenting ideas,’ so we may see a sudden increase in ‘new-age mortality.’

In determining mortality we have age, occupation, BMI, sex, ethnic group, population density, social structure, climate, blood grouping, genetic makeup, healthcare levels, nutrition levels, mobility, social awareness and government actions or lack of it, all playing a part.

Backtracked mortality – 06/09/2022

 WorldUKUSIsrael
Average1.38%0.93%1.39%0.33%
Max6.08%3.43%3.79%0.87%
Min0.15%0.07%0.17%0.06%
Current0.25%1.69%0.40%0.64%
MA Current0.25%0.84%0.45%0.66%

The dose rate of vaccines per person in the UK is 1.77, but now probably an effective level of 1.32.

Backtracked mortality – 07/09/2022

 WorldUKUSIsrael
Average1.38%0.93%1.39%0.33%
Max6.08%3.43%3.79%0.87%
Min0.15%0.07%0.17%0.06%
Current0.25%1.69%0.19%0.14%
MA Current0.24%0.88%0.37%0.66%

Normal UK mortality should be around the 9100 mark for this time of year that gives an average UK longevity of about 80. I would estimate that the UK mortality if you remove the effects of Covid have increased from +1000 to about +1200 a week above what you would normally expect for this time of year. If this continues you may expect the mortality in winter to reach around 15,000 a week, more if other diseases such as influenza cut in, so it may reduce average UK longevity to somewhere around 70, or generally having a 10 years shorter lifetime than before covid occurred.

Backtracked mortality – 09/09/2022

 WorldUKUSIsrael
Average1.37%0.94%1.39%0.33%
Max6.08%3.43%3.79%0.87%
Min0.15%0.07%0.17%0.06%
Current0.25%2.34%0.35%0.21%
MA Current0.23%1.18%0.36%0.50%

As of today, 11/09/2022, in the world there have been 613.8 million cases with about an estimated 12.6 million active cases, increasing at +1.30% per day, and 6.52 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 23.6 million cases and 189,320 deaths. I suspect the actual number is closer to 263,300. It has an estimated 84,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 97.1 million cases and 1,075,700 deaths with about 1.7 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.39%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 1.37%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 0.94%. About 2% of known cases are still active in the world, 0.4% in the UK, 1.8% in the US.

 WorldUKUSIsrael
Average1.37%0.94%1.39%0.33%
Max6.08%3.43%3.79%0.87%
Min0.15%0.07%0.17%0.06%
Current0.29%2.34%0.37%0.76%
MA Current0.23%1.34%0.37%0.50%

As of 11/09/2022 at 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 3,600 and 5,700 new cases in the UK a day. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 70.3%, highest mortality currently is 0.64% of a country and still increasing. Highest mortality rate of those recorded as infected in an area is around 6%. 17 countries having infection rates over 50%, 36 countries having infection rates over 40%, 53 countries having infection rates over 30%, 82 countries have infection rates over 20%, 119 countries have infection rates over 10% and 147 countries have infection rates over 5%.

Long covid is about 15 million in the world, about 2.45%, with permanent disability around 4,140,000 0.74%, re-infections possibly doubling this to about 1% or more, the UK showing about 550,000 with permanent disablement of about 194,000.

As of today, 22/09/2022, in the world there have been 619 million cases with about an estimated 9.9 million active cases, increasing at +1.25% per day, and 6.54 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 26.2 million cases and 190,400 deaths. I suspect the actual number is closer to 265,000. It has an estimated 86,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 97.8 million cases and 1,080,000 deaths with about 1.25 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.1%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 1.1%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 0.73%. About 1.6% of known cases are still active in the world, 0.3% in the UK, 1.3% in the US.

Backtracked Mortality:

 WorldUKUSIsrael
Average1.35%0.96%1.38%0.33%
Max6.08%3.43%3.79%0.87%
Min0.15%0.07%0.17%0.06%
Current0.37%2.49%0.35%0.34%
MA Current0.23%1.45%0.57%0.77%

As of 22/09/2022 at 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 3,760 and 5,870 new cases in the UK a day. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 70.4%, highest mortality currently is 0.64% of a country and still increasing. Highest mortality rate of those recorded as infected in an area is around 6%. 18 countries having infection rates over 50%, 36 countries having infection rates over 40%, 54 countries having infection rates over 30%, 83 countries have infection rates over 20%, 120 countries have infection rates over 10% and 148 countries have infection rates over 5%.
Long covid is about 14.6 million in the world, about 2.38%, with permanent disability around 4,436,000 0.80%, re-infections possibly doubling this to about 1.2% or more, the UK showing about 518,000 with permanent disablement of about 193,900.

Backtracked Mortality – 24/09/2022

 WorldUKUSIsrael
Average1.35%0.95%1.38%0.33%
Max6.08%3.43%3.79%0.87%
Min0.15%0.07%0.17%0.06%
Current0.42%1.62%0.50%0.70%
MA Current0.23%1.31%0.48%0.83%

Backtracked Mortality – 26/09/2022

 WorldUKUSIsrael
Average1.35%0.96%1.37%0.33%
Max6.08%3.43%3.79%0.87%
Min0.15%0.07%0.17%0.06%
Current0.42%1.50%0.46%0.57%
MA Current0.26%1.33%0.48%0.83%

Backtracked Mortality – 26/09/2022

 WorldUKUSIsrael
Average1.35%0.96%1.37%0.33%
Max6.08%3.43%3.79%0.87%
Min0.15%0.07%0.17%0.06%
Current0.32%1.49%0.43%1.07%
MA Current0.26%1.35%0.50%0.83%

Backtracked Mortality – 04/10/2022

 WorldUKUSIsrael
Average1.34%0.96%1.37%0.33%
Max6.08%3.43%3.79%0.87%
Min0.15%0.07%0.17%0.06%
Current0.38%1.10%0.89%0.57%
MA Current0.28%1.37%0.62%0.66%

Currently I would estimate that given the time of year, the mild weather and the social conditions present the UK has about 16% more people dying a year than should normally happen.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.