Coronavirus Risks 11 (SARS-CoV-2)

I’ve been following the virus for 115 weeks now. Originally, I thought that it would be very limited, but that changed about 113 weeks ago, when the numbers began to rise and we found out more about it. There is a lot of debate over why the Omicron variant appeared. And the odds are high for a similar type occurrence with another variant. The likeliest is with an immunocompromised person who had something like the delta variant for a long time. This likely allowed evolution of the virus where it had opportunity to try out all kinds of variations to evade the immune system. Most mutations are failures, only a small percentage of them actually being successful, but for a long-term infection a large number are generated, infecting and re-infecting, changing as it goes, the body knocking out the less successful versions, allowing only the more successful and stronger ones to continue. If it then has time, it will pass to others. If you have a large group of similarly compromised people in a community, and the overall picture is one of continued differential of vaccinated and unvaccinated, it amplifies the overall process, creating what is effectively a variant factory. The BA.2 strain of omicron has now started to expand quite fast, taking over as the main variant in circulation and not as detectable by lateral flow tests. Another way it could have appeared is by infecting a different creature, going up and down the scales like a piano affair, each time it transfers up and down requiring significant modification to work and re-infect. Requiring constant close proximity, this would cause a very large number of mutations just to make this possible, probably a lot more than the ones seen in Omicron, which has not really significantly changed from its previous variant. Because of the lack of real difference, I would think it unlikely and more likely the first scenario. We are now into the 3rd year of the virus and I am still of the opinion that I had in January 2020 that we will have problems with it for at least a decade, possibly two, the current stage being nearer to the start of the outbreak, not the end, so must make plans as such. Current status, 29 months, about 1800 minor variants, 42 major ones, 10 of real concern. There is the possibility though that changes such as those found in Omicron could have a long term beneficial effect. A lot of highly targetted vaccines have a problem of being less effective against a later covid because they are coded for a specific pattern. They ‘lose focus’ because the very mechanism that makes them better at matching the existing virus makes them less efficient at matching future ones. A more general ‘lower match’ type vaccine would suffer less from this, as they would be a broader spectrum type affair. But this also applies to viruses trying to evade our defenses. A virus that has many changes from the original one that first made the cross over, should by the very nature of mutation and change become less specific to the average person, possibly losing focus for the human animal. But with a worrying prospect for crossing over to other animals, the big worry in what happens if they cross back again. Mutations are pretty unstable usually, Covid-19 being slightly different in having it’s own correction system built in, but the long term result may be a more tolerated version for most. Effectively Covid eventually becoming  broad spectrum virus. Multiple combination versions are now starting to appear with recorded cases of ‘deltacron’, a combination of omicron and delta variants, probably from people who have host both versions at the same time. There has always been evidence of such refinements, new variants emerging, not from a single change in one type, but multiple changes happening and ‘cross pollinating’ to produce that new ‘wildly different’ variant in a longer than normal infection term. A covid infection maybe not being just from one form, but always multiples of that form, only the dominant form in the body in any period being detected, and testing catered for. So in high concentration areas you might get omicron, but with B1 and B2 subtypes  1,2,& 3. This does not bode well for areas that have similar type diseases that still have infections of those. What an Omicron or deltacron infection would do with something like a parallel SARS or MERS is worrying. So, new variant about every day, major variant about every 6 weeks, one of concern about every 4 months, on maybe 8.2% of the population infected and 62% vaccinated, immunity maybe 25%. It’s probably reached its peak transfer rates given societies remedial action, so the estimated minimum time is 40 years. A rough estimate is that the outbreak started out around October 2019 in the vicinity of Wuhan, China. Most cases seem to have a root source at the wet market there. As the virus resembles closely that found in bats in the area it is likely that the zoonotic source was from there, although a similar virus was found in bats in mines a few hundred miles away and on a direct train line that links the two places, but without further investigation it’s just guesswork that live bats may have been transported on this line. Similarly, there has been speculation that it escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, but as this is a level 4 facility it would be highly unlikely from within it, there being over 100 throughout the world, a few in populated areas in the UK. There is a possibility that it could be peripheral transport to the facility, or through an infected member of staff who collected specimens and brought it back, but this is a thing that is more likely to happen to people just capturing specimens for sale, which is the likeliest scenario. The infected seem to consist of a lot that are in recovery, official active cases currently 15.7%, but more likely 10.5%, increasing at a rate of 1.3% per day, but doesn’t seem to push the continuity risk to the average population above around about 1.4% mortality if you contract the disease based on current vaccination/non-vaccinated rates. Actual numbers are probably about 1.5X the recorded ones for cases, a figure that comes from about 10 billion tests being taken on about 50% of the world’s population, 65 countries now having tested all of their population. It’s likely that we are seeing the effects of various mutations in countries rather than a single one. The rate has been pretty consistent since most countries locked down and the effects of this took place since May 2020. There was a lull in figures, but that was probably due to countries finally getting around to working out the statistics, but the numbers are starting to rise in the world again in proportion, so it suggests more potent variants are starting to appear and replace the previous ones we know and are guarding against. The moving average of active and infective cases suggest that the world as a whole under lockdown has an ‘R’ rate of about 1.1, so there is little chance of it being controlled even with current vaccines for at least 12 months, possibly years if the logistics are wrong. At the current trend the numbers seem to be doubling every 26 weeks in the world and keep on reoccurring or initiating in each country. Given mutations by numbers, it is probable that any country will need to stay in lockdown and isolate for the next couple of years to avoid it, causing extra damage, so it is now likely that everybody will have caught the disease at least once within about 3 years, twice within about 10 years, and 3 times in a lifetime. The worry is for people who have a compromised immune system and serious hospital patients that vaccines and boosters give a significantly limited advantage compared to normal. The effects of the Delta and Omicron variant were expected. Since circumstances have not changed much over the last 12 months the likelihood of somebody in the world catching the disease is therefore now probably around 99% at some time, so all that can probably be done is to manage and delay, so that we are in the best position to weather the infection against the most active variant in the population. Status at the moment: 29 months and 8.2% of the world and counting. There have been at least 41 major variants that have occurred in the first 427 million recorded cases (3.8%) over a period of 27 months, of which 12 are worrying in respect of vaccines and long-term immunity. If you count minor variants or ‘lines’ then so far about 1550 have been found. The Variant first identified in India (Delta) is commonplace in the UK. The Omicron variant seems to be spreading faster than it had before, being less susceptible to vaccines, as found in South Africa and now has been found in over 30 countries. The Omicron variant has something like 30 modifications to the spike proteins and there are cases occurring around the world, so it’s likely Omicron becoming dominant. None of the variants are particular to any country, just being where they were first identified, and it’s likely that any attempts to prevent a country receiving cases is just political, unless bans on movement is applied to all countries and all travellers. Probably by the time a ban is instituted it has already arrived. The Omicron B.2 variant is even slightly more transmissable, but of similar lesser effect than Delta or the original variant. Current Status: This is a continuation of Coronavirus Risks 10, Coronavirus Risks 9, Coronavirus Risks 8,  Coronavirus Risks 7, Coronavirus Risks 6, a continuation of the original posts, Coronavirus Risks 5, Coronavirus Risks 4, Coronavirus Risks 3, Coronavirus Risks and Coronavirus Risks 2 that were also getting a bit long. Calculation for the incidence of Long Covid works out to about on average 3.7 times the mortality rate for a country. 04/11/2021 We have now had 4 days of increases following 4 days of decreases after 9 days of increases in the UK.  The trend still shows a slight rise. 75% of the population have had one dose of a vaccine, 67% two doses of a vaccine and 28% a booster. For the more vulnerable part of the population, most have had both doses of a vaccine and 77% a booster, so currently about 58% with as much protection as possible. Similarly the US has had 3 days of increases after 2 small decreases, but the trend has been upwards now for over 4 weeks. With vaccinations and boosters the mortality rate is currently now about 1.22% in the world, 0.27% in the UK and 0.96% in the US, down from 2.33% in the world, 3.09% in the UK and 3.4% in the US, so an overall reduction rate of about 2 times for the world, 11 times for the UK and 3.5 times for the US. As of today, 05/12/2021, in the world there have been 266.2 million cases with about an estimated 11.3 million active cases, increasing at +1.39% per day, and 5.27 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 10.5 million cases and 145,600 deaths. I suspect the actual number is closer to 202,000. It has an estimated 855,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 50 million cases and 808,730 deaths with about 1.99 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.62%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 1.98%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 1.39%. About 4.2% of known cases are still active in the world, 8.1% in the UK, 4% in the US. It’s likely 5.1% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 23% of the UK, and 22.5% of the US. It’s estimated that about 4.3 billion people (55%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 51 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one a year ago, 45.7 million for the second dose, 19.6 million the 1st booster, averaging 323,000 doses a day over this period, but about 430,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 75% in the UK have had a dose of vaccine, 67% both, 29% 1st booster, 71% in the US, 59.5% both, and 71% in the EU, 67.5% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of its population by 6th September 2022. The third ‘booster’ jab for new variants taking the date to 12th February 2023, and a fourth taking the date to 20th July 2023, and a fifth to 26th December 2023. Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.64% for the world and 0.95% for the UK, the current figures being 1.22% for the world and 0.27% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.37% and the current figure is 0.96%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%. As of 05/12/2020 there have been 367.2 million tests conducted in the UK, about 362 million antigen tests and 5.2 million antibody tests, 10.5 million positive of those 169.5 million processed, 6.2%, or 1 in 16 testing positive, 93.8%, 15 out of 16 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 36,000 and 57,000 new cases in the UK a day. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 25.2% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.6% of a country and still increasing. Highest mortality currently is 3.5% of a large district or state and still increasing. Highest mortality rate of those recorded as infected in an area is around 9%. 7 countries have infection rates over 20%, 55 countries have infection rates over 10% and 111 countries have infection rates over 5%. Here’s is a quick analysis of South Africa where the Omicron variant seems to be widespread:
I hope to do a forecast later today for the UK and US, time permitting. Here is the forecast for the UK:
6th UK Model with Recalculation for Delta & AY.4.2
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
06/12/2021 Monday 44,837 52
07/12/2021 Tuesday 41,818 180
08/12/2021 Wednesday 50,934 195
09/12/2021 Thursday 56,800 166
10/12/2021 Friday 53,261 171
11/12/2021 Saturday 44,733 137
12/12/2021 Sunday 46,320 60
13/12/2021 Monday 47,198 54
14/12/2021 Tuesday 44,021 189
15/12/2021 Wednesday 53,617 223
16/12/2021 Thursday 59,792 185
17/12/2021 Friday 56,067 183
18/12/2021 Saturday 47,089 147
19/12/2021 Sunday 48,760 67
20/12/2021 Monday 49,690 59
21/12/2021 Tuesday 46,345 204
22/12/2021 Wednesday 56,448 245
23/12/2021 Thursday 62,949 207
24/12/2021 Friday 59,027 200
25/12/2021 Saturday 49,575 164
26/12/2021 Sunday 51,335 75
27/12/2021 Monday 52,311 65
28/12/2021 Tuesday 48,789 224
29/12/2021 Wednesday 59,425 269
30/12/2021 Thursday 66,269 226
31/12/2021 Friday 62,140 220
01/01/2022 Saturday 52,189 179
02/01/2022 Sunday 54,042 82
Here is the forecast for the US:
5th Model for US with Some Adjustments for variants
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
12/06/2021 Monday 76,763 466
12/07/2021 Tuesday 118,048 1,588
12/08/2021 Wednesday 133,031 1,804
12/09/2021 Thursday 146,707 1,394
12/10/2021 Friday 162,846 1,493
12/11/2021 Saturday 62,674 543
12/12/2021 Sunday 40,349 141
12/13/2021 Monday 83,122 505
12/14/2021 Tuesday 127,827 1,720
12/15/2021 Wednesday 144,051 1,953
12/16/2021 Thursday 158,859 1,509
12/17/2021 Friday 176,336 1,617
12/18/2021 Saturday 67,865 588
12/19/2021 Sunday 43,691 153
12/20/2021 Monday 90,909 552
12/21/2021 Tuesday 139,803 1,881
12/22/2021 Wednesday 157,547 2,136
12/23/2021 Thursday 173,742 1,651
12/24/2021 Friday 192,856 1,769
12/25/2021 Saturday 74,223 644
12/26/2021 Sunday 47,784 167
12/27/2021 Monday 98,933 601
12/28/2021 Tuesday 152,142 2,047
12/29/2021 Wednesday 171,452 2,325
12/30/2021 Thursday 189,077 1,796
12/31/2021 Friday 209,877 1,925
01/01/2022 Saturday 80,774 700
01/02/2022 Sunday 52,002 182
07/12/2021 – We have now had 7 days of increases following 4 days of decreases after 9 days of increases in the UK. The trend still shows a rise. 75% of the population have had one dose of a vaccine, 67% two doses of a vaccine and 30% a booster. For the more vulnerable part of the population, most have had both doses of a vaccine and 81% a booster, so currently about 65% with as much protection as possible. Similarly the US has had 2 days of increases after an intermittent pattern, but the trend has been upwards now for over 5 weeks. I think it is a little premature to regard Omicron as a mild version of Covid. From the statistics it looks like it is somewhere near 50% less harmful as something like Delta, but it seems 50% more infective. This means that in a population where say 1,000 unvaccinated people were infected with Delta you would get about 30 people dying and vaccinated people 500 being infected and 9 people dying. For Omicron you would get something like 1,500 unvaccinated people being infected and 30 dying and vaccinated 750 people being infected and maybe 9 dying. The odds if you get infected are better, but for the whole population the results are pretty much the same, as you are more likely to be infected at some time. When more figures come out we may be able to see the overall pattern better. What is concerning is the likelihood of long covid and mutations. The long covid would probably be similar numbers, about an average of 3.7 times that of deaths, but the chance for mutation may be somewhere near twice the numbers that have occurred as before. 08/12/2021 – We have now had 8 days of increases following 4 days of decreases after 9 days of increases in the UK. The trend still shows a rise. 75% of the population have had one dose of a vaccine, 67% two doses of a vaccine and 30.5% a booster. For the more vulnerable part of the population, most have had both doses of a vaccine and 83% a booster, so currently about 67% with as much protection as possible. Similarly the US has had 3 days of increases after an intermittent pattern, but the trend has been upwards now for over 5 weeks. From the numbers in South Africa the mortality seems to staying about the same but with more people being infected faster. Effectively the two combined producing similar results. Because there is a bigger difference between it and previous variants, current vaccines are less effective but the illness seems similarly less severe in proportion. So, you might get it evading current vaccines better but not the overall body’s defences. Before, in a hypothetical situation and country, you might get on average 10000 unvaccinated people getting it with 200-300 dying, now omicron infecting 12000 with 220-330 dying. Fully vaccinated maybe 30-40 dying, with about 3.7x the number occurring compared to deaths for long covid, so maybe 900-1000 in unvaccinated, 130 in fully vaccinated, compromised immune systems being more limited in vaccine effective efficiency. It will probably be a couple of weeks before the real risk is known, South Africa being about world average as far as median age goes, some areas of Europe being quite a lot older with a higher population density. With the virus seeming to become less human specific with more evident changes, it still worries me about its ability for cross-species transfer, so its effect on other animal life and also the chance of something returning across this boundary quite different in aspect, especially with the uncontrolled numbers. This may already have happened, or the changes being the result of a long-term infection, the virus having an extended period and the opportunity to try out and test various successful and unsuccessful permutations.
11/12/2021 – We have now had 9 days of increase in the UK out of 10 days so the trend still seems towards increaing. 75% of the population have had one dose of a vaccine, 67.5% two doses of a vaccine and 32.5% a booster. For the more vulnerable part of the population, most have had both doses of a vaccine and 88% a booster, so currently about 70% with as much protection as possible. The US has had 2 days of decreases after an intermittent pattern mainly upwards for about 6 weeks, but it is hopeful. Hopefully soon I should be able to update more regularly and fully, various commitments and sight preventing me at the moment. With viruses it tends to chemically just be down to ion exchanges to deliver its package. They tend to be coated with something that conceals what it is and mimics what the body is looking for. Most seem to be coated with glycans, sugary carbohydrates that the body loves and indicates something that it should accept even though the defences are trying to stop them, but the body has a sweet tooth that overcomes this. The infectiveness seems to be linked with what could maybe effectively be called ‘body taste,’ where some viruses taste better than others, so will allow more through at a quicker rate. Alcohol and sweets are of this similar pattern, so if it mimics liquorice allsorts I don’t think I will last long. There isn’t any data on the matter, but as most vaping uses propylene glycol, a slightly sweet tasting diol, also used in antifreezes, and mostly glycerine a sweet tasting glyceride, it would be interesting as to the effects of Covid-19 on regular users. This using of a similar mechanism is unknown. Are they more susceptible, as their lungs may be more conditioned to accept sweeter things, or are they less, the lungs being more saturated, so slowing down virus acceptance. So, does vaping make it worse, unaffect it, or make it better? It could be an unknown extra risk, irrelevant, or a help in preventing it, especially if used with something that slows down Covid acceptance. As of today, 14/12/2021, in the world there have been 271.5 million cases with about an estimated 12 million active cases, increasing at +1.37% per day, and 5.33 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 10.9 million cases and 146,627 deaths. I suspect the actual number is closer to 203,800. It has an estimated 958,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 51.1 million cases and 821,000 deaths with about 2.18 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.61%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 1.96%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 1.35%. About 4.4% of known cases are still active in the world, 8.6% in the UK, 4.3% in the US. It’s likely 5.2% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 24% of the UK, and 23% of the US. It’s estimated that about 4.4 billion people (56%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 51.3 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one a year ago, 46 million for the second dose, 23.1 million the 1st booster, averaging 326,000 doses a day over this period, but about 436,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 75% in the UK have had a dose of vaccine, 67% both, 34% 1st booster, 72% in the US, 60.5% both, and 71.5% in the EU, 68% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of its population by 11th September 2022. The third ‘booster’ jab for new variants taking the date to 14th February 2023, and a fourth taking the date to 20th July 2023, and a fifth to 23rd December 2023. Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.63% for the world and 0.94% for the UK, the current figures being 1.17% for the world and 0.25% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.36% and the current figure is 0.96%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.19-2.33%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%. As of 14/12/2020 there have been 380.4 million tests conducted in the UK, about 375.1 million antigen tests and 5.3 million antibody tests, 10.9 million positive of those 175.1 million processed, 6.2%, or 1 in 16 testing positive, 93.8%, 15 out of 16 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 44,600 and 70,000 new cases in the UK a day. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 25.7% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.6% of a country and still increasing. Highest mortality currently is 3.5% of a large district or state and still increasing. Highest mortality rate of those recorded as infected in an area is around 9%. 7 countries have infection rates over 20%, 59 countries have infection rates over 10% and 112 countries have infection rates over 5%. As of 14/12/2021 The UK has seen 12 days of rises and 2 days of decrease in the past 2 weeks, but has been generally rising for the bast 6 weeks. The US has seen 10 days of rises and 4 days of decrease in the past 2 weeks, but has been generally rising for the past 7 weeks. Forecast for the UK is as below:
6th UK Model with Recalculation for Delta & Omicron
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
15/12/2021 Wednesday 55,784 175
16/12/2021 Thursday 55,268 161
17/12/2021 Friday 63,229 130
18/12/2021 Saturday 58,751 143
19/12/2021 Sunday 53,081 56
20/12/2021 Monday 60,983 42
21/12/2021 Tuesday 66,505 167
22/12/2021 Wednesday 62,236 195
23/12/2021 Thursday 61,660 179
24/12/2021 Friday 70,542 145
25/12/2021 Saturday 65,547 160
26/12/2021 Sunday 59,220 63
27/12/2021 Monday 67,885 47
28/12/2021 Tuesday 74,032 186
29/12/2021 Wednesday 69,280 217
30/12/2021 Thursday 68,639 200
31/12/2021 Friday 78,526 162
01/01/2022 Saturday 72,965 178
02/01/2022 Sunday 65,923 70
03/01/2022 Monday 75,653 53
04/01/2022 Tuesday 82,502 208
05/01/2022 Wednesday 77,207 242
06/01/2022 Thursday 76,493 223
07/01/2022 Friday 87,511 180
08/01/2022 Saturday 81,314 198
09/01/2022 Sunday 73,466 78
The forecast for the US is as below:
5th Model for US with Some Adjustments for variants
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
12/14/2021 Tuesday 112,190 1,795
12/15/2021 Wednesday 132,795 1,380
12/16/2021 Thursday 134,608 1,455
12/17/2021 Friday 142,621 1,641
12/18/2021 Saturday 59,840 465
12/19/2021 Sunday 40,423 174
12/20/2021 Monday 98,774 569
12/21/2021 Tuesday 116,228 1,859
12/22/2021 Wednesday 137,574 1,430
12/23/2021 Thursday 139,453 1,507
12/24/2021 Friday 147,754 1,700
12/25/2021 Saturday 61,994 482
12/26/2021 Sunday 41,878 180
12/27/2021 Monday 102,838 592
12/28/2021 Tuesday 121,010 1,936
12/29/2021 Wednesday 143,234 1,488
12/30/2021 Thursday 145,190 1,569
12/31/2021 Friday 153,833 1,769
01/01/2022 Saturday 64,544 501
01/02/2022 Sunday 43,600 188
01/03/2022 Monday 106,804 615
01/04/2022 Tuesday 125,676 2,011
01/05/2022 Wednesday 148,758 1,546
01/06/2022 Thursday 150,789 1,630
01/07/2022 Friday 159,765 1,838
01/08/2022 Saturday 67,033 521
01/09/2022 Sunday 45,282 195
I did a quick analysis of the UK population, pre-covid, post covid, but pre-vaccinations, and post vaccination levels of mortality. They come out a bit odd for the periods and may be down to levels of halthcare at the time, but there could be many reasons for this, including less people in the groups at each stage.
UK Mortality Figures for Year Chances of Dying in a Year
Deaths by age group Population Pre-Covid Post Covid Post Vacc
<1 1,940,000 0.13% 0.15% 0.13%
1-4 2,150,000 0.02% 0.03% 0.02%
5-9 3,919,539 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
10-14 3,816,393 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
15-19 3,764,820 0.02% 0.03% 0.03%
20-24 4,228,976 0.03% 0.05% 0.03%
25-29 4,641,559 0.03% 0.06% 0.04%
30-34 4,589,987 0.05% 0.08% 0.05%
35-39 4,435,268 0.09% 0.13% 0.12%
40-44 4,022,685 0.13% 0.22% 0.16%
45-49 4,589,987 0.18% 0.32% 0.20%
50-54 4,899,424 0.29% 0.46% 0.34%
55-59 4,383,695 0.45% 0.81% 0.49%
60-64 3,713,248 0.73% 1.32% 0.74%
65-69 3,558,529 1.06% 1.86% 1.14%
70-74 3,352,237 1.79% 3.27% 1.86%
75-79 2,320,780 3.22% 6.31% 3.35%
80-84 1,650,332 5.90% 12.10% 5.66%
85-89 1,083,031 10.50% 21.34% 9.13%
90+ 835,481 16.52% 32.10% 15.14%
We have maybe 5% of the world having been infected, maybe 20% of the UK, so there’s still a long way to go. The previous theories of it already being widespread having been proven to be fanciful and just wishful thinking led research or models. Wishful thinking assumptions are rarely accurate. My original estimate nearly 2 years ago was a decade, but now probably nearer 4 decades of the problem. The long-term problems probably being seen around that time. You don’t get cell damage, some with more extensive, without repercussions. I don’t have a problem with unvaccinated unless they fill up the hospitals when they get seriously ill and/or die. They’re probably no more infective than other people, so a simple signed and witnessed document with ‘I remove my right to be treated in hospital for a Covid related illness,’ would suffice, similar to a do not revive one. With the numbers going the way they are it’s very likely that everybody will catch covid at some time, some as many as 5 times. This is almost certain now, so the only option I see open is to have as much protection as possible at that point. We will probably need boosters every 6 months for this pattern of protection levels until a permanent solution is found. With a high level of protection and the new antiviral drugs this most of the time will be enough. We have problems because nobody in the world is really planning for this likeliest scenario, thinking we’ve dodged the problem, not just delayed it. We have everybody still planning on getting back to normal, with very few people realising the environment we now find ourselves in ‘is the new normal.’ At least for a decade. Also, the odds are still in favour of the worst is yet to come, the current omicron being just another irritation. The range covid could go could be between a sniffle and becoming part of the common cold and something like MERS. I said something at the start of the outbreak in the world that is still probably true: ‘Covid is a world problem, and unless the world is going to deal with it, trying to win short term gains and advantages, the world is going to have it for at least a decade.’ Nipah, SARS, MERS, BSE, Bird Flu, Porcine, we’ve all been lucky with, running across the motorway, people saying ‘what’s all the fuss, there wasn’t a problem, it came to nothing.’ Our luck finally ran out and unless we do something about it, it’s going to run out big time. 18/12/2021 – Covid is still rising in the UK with the omicron variant increasing a lot faster than expected. Lack of precautions and a much higher infective rate pushing the figures. We have had 9 days of quite dramatic rises, so probably 84,000 cases and 49 deaths tomorrow, but the mortality is still staying down at about 14% less than expected. I haven’t put an updated forecast since the 13th as the changes are happening quite quickly and the figures could have gone any way. I hope to put one up after tomorrows figures. Probably the highest mortality will be recorded on the 31st, a lockdown very likely after that date, if not before on the 27th. Statistics isn’t an exact science. When you are dealing with large numbers it makes the likeliest outcome easier to calculate, but you are still left with random actions of the units involved. With the case of people, a lot depends on the actions of the people in that society, and whether they are aware of the current environment and risks. Generally, people are not very good at recognising those, especially when they are reasonably distant or not obviously and directly connected. Also, the statistics can be skewed by individuals and rhetoric, information being underrated or overrated as to its relevance by what a powerful individual or group believe to be true, not what is true. Mathematics, chemistry and physics rarely obey political rules, or people who are set in their views. Risks can be implied and believed when they are low or not present, and played down or not believed when they are present, finding a happy medium of the appropriate response for a particular risk very hard to work out, often status and belief being the operator, rather than the figures or science. Below is a chart of cases, hospitalisations and mortality for the UK. I’ve divided the cases by 10 to fit all of the data easily on the chart.
I’m still having major problems seeing the screen at the moment so information might still be a bit disjointed. 21/12/2021 – The UK is still showing significant rises, but hospitalisations and mortality is still staying low. So with the Omicron variant it is more an irritation than a disaster, but I don’t think this will continue this way with subsequent ones. The level of vaccinations are still going great guns and nearly reached a million in a single day. At the moment 75.5% of the population has had at least 1 dose, 68% 2 doses and 42% a booster. This works out to most of those at hightened risk, so it’s the best that can be managed. There are signs that those over 70 are taking a slightly bigger hit than those under 70, even with vaccination and still more males than females by as much as 40%. I’ve suspended the previous models as the Omicron variant is far more infective than expected. So I’ve done some rough and ready calculations for the UK and US based on very recent data. Probably for the UK and US populations a more accurate picture won’t be available for another week. 22/12/2021 – The numbers are increasing faster than expected around the world with unknown knock on consequences. Mortality and hospitalisations in the UK is still staying low, but force of numbers may decide the situation. I think it likely that the UK will have a lockdown on the 27th, but almost certainly by the 1st January 2022. There are limits on the speed that the disease can spread, caution and lockdowns slowing the advance, so the numbers can be kept down for a while using this, but eventually unless the core of cases are removed by isolation we are likely to see a much higher level of acceptable figures, and given the limited booster roll out in many countries, a slighly higher mortality than with present vaccination levels. As of today, 24/12/2021, in the world there have been 279.5 million cases with about an estimated 13.6 million active cases, increasing at +1.37% per day, and 5.41 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 11.9 million cases and 147,850 deaths. I suspect the actual number is closer to 205,000. It has an estimated 1,390,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 53 million cases and 835,800 deaths with about 2.9 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.58%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 1.94%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 1.24%. About 4.9% of known cases are still active in the world, 11.7% in the UK, 5.5% in the US. It’s likely 5.3% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 26.2% of the UK, and 23.9% of the US. It’s estimated that about 4.5 billion people (57.5%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 52 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 54 weeks ago, 46.5 million for the second dose, 32.5 million the 1st booster, averaging 343,000 doses a day over this period, but about 573,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 76% in the UK have had a dose of vaccine, 68% both, 47% 1st booster, 73% in the US, 61.5% both, and 72.5% in the EU, 69% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of its population by 18th July 2022. The third ‘booster’ jab for new variants taking the date to 14th November 2022, and a fourth taking the date to 12th March 2023, and a fifth to 9th July 2023. Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.63% for the world and 0.92% for the UK, the current figures being 1.12% for the world and 0.21% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.36% and the current figure is 0.96%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.09-2.33%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%. As of 24/12/2020 there have been 397.4 million tests conducted in the UK, about 393 million antigen tests and 5.4 million antibody tests, 11.9 million positive of those 180.5 million processed, 6.6%, or 1 in 15 testing positive, 93.4%, 14 out of 15 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 87,000 and 136,000 new cases in the UK a day. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 27.9% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.6% of a country and still increasing. Highest mortality currently is 3.5% of a large district or state and still increasing. Highest mortality rate of those recorded as infected in an area is around 9%. 8 countries have infection rates over 20%, 63 countries have infection rates over 10% and 114 countries have infection rates over 5%. It’s a strange pattern, but world cases seem to consistently surge on average every 4 months, peaking in april, august and december, and subsiding in february, june and october. I’ve noticed this since cases really took off, but regarded it as just an oddity that would change, but it seems to have become consistent. Mortality seems to follow suit about 2 weeks later. The UK only follows this pattern vaguely. For the next week figures are going to be very sketchy as many government offices and reporting structures around the world are closed. Estimates for the UK for the 24th are 119339 cases and 165 deaths, for the 25th are 109398 cases and 59 deaths and the 27th 133280 cases and 64 deaths. For the US, the 24th is estimated to be 197856 cases with 1782 deaths, the 25th 96384 cases with 525 deaths, the 26th 43575 cases with 188 deaths and the 27th 188679 cases and 819 deaths. 30/12/2021 – Numbers are still increasing alarmingly in the UK and US. Countries such as Israel that have an extremely high level of vaccination are also showing an increase in numbers that at an earlier stage would be concerning. South Africa is showing a reduction in numbers, but it’s likely that reporting of numbers is quite low inproportion of actual cases and having quite a low median age population of 27, a median that has altered by +4 years within the last 15. The median age of the UK is 40 and the US is 39. It is still extremely hard to estimate numbers for the UK and US because of the holidays and quick changing circumstances, but if things don’t change or other constraints come into play the numbers may be as below:
UK Model with Short Term Estimation
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
30/12/2021 Thursday 174,024 214
31/12/2021 Friday 177,506 199
01/01/2022 Saturday 173,371 240
02/01/2022 Sunday 158,929 86
03/01/2022 Monday 191,548 92
04/01/2022 Tuesday 186,074 359
05/01/2022 Wednesday 263,130 292
06/01/2022 Thursday 250,105 307
07/01/2022 Friday 255,110 286
08/01/2022 Saturday 249,166 344
09/01/2022 Sunday 228,410 124
10/01/2022 Monday 280,153 134
11/01/2022 Tuesday 272,146 525
12/01/2022 Wednesday 384,847 428
13/01/2022 Thursday 365,797 449
14/01/2022 Friday 373,116 418
15/01/2022 Saturday 364,424 504
16/01/2022 Sunday 334,066 181
17/01/2022 Monday 406,188 195
18/01/2022 Tuesday 394,579 762
19/01/2022 Wednesday 557,981 620
20/01/2022 Thursday 530,361 651
21/01/2022 Friday 540,973 607
22/01/2022 Saturday 528,370 730
23/01/2022 Sunday 484,356 263
US Model with Short Term Estimation
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
12/30/2021 Thursday 427,933 1,840
12/31/2021 Friday 316,794 2,853
01/01/2022 Saturday 154,324 841
01/02/2022 Sunday 69,769 300
01/03/2022 Monday 429,586 1,643
01/04/2022 Tuesday 628,460 3,783
01/05/2022 Wednesday 873,500 3,333
01/06/2022 Thursday 802,714 3,451
01/07/2022 Friday 594,239 5,352
01/08/2022 Saturday 289,479 1,577
01/09/2022 Sunday 130,872 564
01/10/2022 Monday 659,152 2,521
01/11/2022 Tuesday 964,300 5,805
01/12/2022 Wednesday 1,340,287 5,115
01/13/2022 Thursday 1,231,674 5,295
01/14/2022 Friday 911,793 8,212
01/15/2022 Saturday 444,173 2,419
01/16/2022 Sunday 200,808 865
01/17/2022 Monday 963,548 3,686
01/18/2022 Tuesday 1,409,614 8,486
01/19/2022 Wednesday 1,959,232 7,476
01/20/2022 Thursday 1,800,461 7,740
01/21/2022 Friday 1,332,859 12,004
01/22/2022 Saturday 649,292 3,536
01/23/2022 Sunday 293,541 1,264
As of today, 04/01/2022, in the world there have been 294.3 million cases with about an estimated 21.2 million active cases, increasing at +1.36% per day, and 5.47 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 13.7 million cases and 149,200 deaths. I suspect the actual number is closer to 207,000. It has an estimated 2,490,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 57.6 million cases and 852,850 deaths with about 6 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.48%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 1.86%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 1.09%. About 7.2% of known cases are still active in the world, 18.2% in the UK, 8.7% in the US. It’s likely 5.6% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 30.1% of the UK, and 25.9% of the US. It’s estimated that about 4.6 billion people (58.3%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 52 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 56 weeks ago, 46.8 million for the second dose, 33.5 million the 1st booster, averaging 337,000 doses a day over this period, but about 488,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 76% in the UK have had a dose of vaccine, 70% both, 49% 1st booster, 73.5% in the US, 62% both, and 73% in the EU, 69.5% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of its population by 3rd September 2022. The third ‘booster’ jab for new variants taking the date to 21st January 2023, and a fourth taking the date to 9th June 2023, and a fifth to 26th October 2023. Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.6% for the world and 0.9% for the UK, the current figures being 0.85% for the world and 0.05% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.35% and the current figure is 0.96%. The range for the world based on this figure is 0.71-2.33%, for the UK, 0.05-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%. As of 24/12/2022 there have been 407.5 million tests conducted in the UK, about 402.1 million antigen tests and 5.4 million antibody tests, 13.7 million positive of those 183.8 million processed, 7.5%, or 1 in 13 testing positive, 92.5%, 12 out of 13 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 130,000 and 200,000 new cases in the UK a day. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 31.6% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.6% of a country and still increasing. Highest mortality currently is 3.51% of a large district or state and still increasing. Highest mortality rate of those recorded as infected in an area is around 8.8%. 9 countries have infection rates over 20%, 69 countries have infection rates over 10% and 117 countries have infection rates over 5%. From rough figures Omicron seems to be about twice as infective as previous versions, but 1/3rd of its mortality, so presumably 1/3rd of the chance of getting long covid, currently standing about 3.7x the mortality levels, but vaccines being much less effective against catching it. The upshot of it, being numbers being quite dramatic, but deaths and long covid staying low. It is now taking over as the dominant version. New variants are appearing all the time, but one with 46 changes compared to Omicron’s 30 was detected in France, now coping with large numbers of cases. With case numbers increasing at an alarming rate and prolonged duration in the immunocompromised there is always the chance of a highly infective more fatal version developing and hiding within the milder infections, not really being noticed until the mortality numbers start going up quickly. Looking at hospitalisations we are dealing with quite small raw numbers at the moment, but the proportions of patients where a booster shot has been given is 1/3rd of the proportions in the population. For double jabbed it works out to about 3/4’s the proportion, the unvaccinated being expected at much higher risk in proportion. This suggests a much lower effect of vaccines in immunocompromised people, who should be still shielding or shielded, the booster having a very good effect in the average person, and with Omicron, half the risk previously overall to the unvaccinated, but still about 10 times the risk to a similar fully vaccinated and boosted person. In the UK and Omicron, Long covid seems to be still averaging about 3.7 times the risk of mortality (0.12%) for a vaccinated, so now about 0.5%, and 5 times the risk of mortality (1.5%) for the unvaccinated, so now about 7.5%. As of today, 09/01/2022, in the world there have been 308.1 million cases with about an estimated 21.1 million active cases, increasing at +1.34% per day, and 5.51 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 14.5 million cases and 150,154 deaths. I suspect the actual number is closer to 208,500. It has an estimated 2,490,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 61.5 million cases and 860,000 deaths with about 6 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.4%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 1.79%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 1.04%. About 6.8% of known cases are still active in the world, 17.2% in the UK, 9.8% in the US. It’s likely 5.9% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 31.9% of the UK, and 27.7% of the US. It’s estimated that about 4.7 billion people (59.5%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 52 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 57 weeks ago, 46.8 million for the second dose, 34 million the 1st booster, averaging 336,000 doses a day over this period, but about 460,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 76% in the UK have had a dose of vaccine, 69% both, 50% 1st booster, 74% in the US, 62% both, and 73.5% in the EU, 70% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of its population by 23rd September 2022. The third ‘booster’ jab for new variants taking the date to 18th February 2023, and a fourth taking the date to 16th July 2023, and a fifth to 11th December 2023. Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.59% for the world and 0.9% for the UK, the current figures being 0.79% for the world and 0.08% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.34% and the current figure is 0.96%. The range for the world based on this figure is 0.71-2.33%, for the UK, 0.05-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%. As of 09/01/2022 there have been 425.3 million tests conducted in the UK, about 419.9 million antigen tests and 5.4 million antibody tests, 14.5 million positive of those 195.4 million processed, 7.4%, or 1 in 13 testing positive, 92.6%, 12 out of 13 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 144,000 and 225,000 new cases in the UK a day. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 34.1% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.6% of a country and still increasing. Highest mortality currently is 3.54% of a large district or state and still increasing. Highest mortality rate of those recorded as infected in an area is around 8.6%. 12 countries have infection rates over 20%, 71 countries have infection rates over 10% and 118 countries have infection rates over 5%. Figures have been pretty sporadic over the christmas period and are only starting to stabilise again. Projections for the UK and US are as follows:
13/01/2022 AT the moment the numbers are too sporadic up and down to give a projection of cases. Hopefully by the end of the week with a full set of data coming in it might be possible to. Number seem to be falling in the UK and still rising in the US. Mortality in the UK could reach 450 in a day and 4500 in the US.
The numbers are changing quickly, but in both countries it’s likely that other factors will come into play limiting numbers from an exponential growth.
UK Model with Short Term Estimation
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
14/01/2022 Friday 150,065 379
15/01/2022 Saturday 99,294 407
16/01/2022 Sunday 95,958 126
17/01/2022 Monday 127,881 69
18/01/2022 Tuesday 116,519 358
19/01/2022 Wednesday 115,483 358
20/01/2022 Thursday 98,127 301
21/01/2022 Friday 134,931 341
22/01/2022 Saturday 89,280 366
23/01/2022 Sunday 86,281 113
24/01/2022 Monday 100,862 55
25/01/2022 Tuesday 91,900 282
26/01/2022 Wednesday 91,083 282
27/01/2022 Thursday 77,395 238
28/01/2022 Friday 106,423 269
29/01/2022 Saturday 70,417 289
30/01/2022 Sunday 68,051 89
31/01/2022 Monday 85,121 46
01/02/2022 Tuesday 77,558 238
02/02/2022 Wednesday 76,869 238
03/02/2022 Thursday 65,316 200
04/02/2022 Friday 89,814 227
05/02/2022 Saturday 59,427 244
06/02/2022 Sunday 57,431 76
US Model with Short Term Estimation
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
01/14/2022 Friday 1,128,102 3,293
01/15/2022 Saturday 621,607 1,091
01/16/2022 Sunday 409,839 501
01/17/2022 Monday 885,097 1,316
01/18/2022 Tuesday 883,790 2,854
01/19/2022 Wednesday 1,089,132 2,997
01/20/2022 Thursday 1,310,833 2,540
01/21/2022 Friday 1,481,716 4,325
01/22/2022 Saturday 816,455 1,433
01/23/2022 Sunday 538,307 658
01/24/2022 Monday 1,156,107 1,719
01/25/2022 Tuesday 1,154,400 3,728
01/26/2022 Wednesday 1,422,616 3,915
01/27/2022 Thursday 1,712,200 3,229
01/28/2022 Friday 1,935,407 5,650
01/29/2022 Saturday 1,066,448 1,872
01/30/2022 Sunday 703,132 859
01/31/2022 Monday 1,514,299 2,252
02/01/2022 Tuesday 1,512,063 4,883
02/02/2022 Wednesday 1,863,380 5,128
02/03/2022 Thursday 2,242,685 4,163
02/04/2022 Friday 2,535,047 7,400
02/05/2022 Saturday 1,396,861 2,452
02/06/2022 Sunday 920,981 1,126
As of today, 20/01/2022, in the world there have been 343 million cases with about an estimated 52.7 million active cases, increasing at +1.33% per day, and 5.67 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 18.7 million cases and 160,780 deaths. I suspect the actual number is closer to 223,000. It has an estimated 1.23 million known active cases. The US is reporting 80.2 million cases and 960,200 deaths with about 3.8 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.2%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 1.65%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 0.86%. About 15.4% of known cases are still active in the world, 6.6% in the UK, 4.7% in the US. It’s likely 6.6% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 41% of the UK, and 36% of the US. It’s estimated that about 4.9 billion people (62.5%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 52.1 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 58 weeks ago, 47.2 million for the second dose, 35.2 million the 1st booster, averaging 331,000 doses a day over this period, but about 141,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 76.5% in the UK have had a dose of vaccine, 69.5% both, 51.5% 1st booster, 75% in the US, 63% both, 46.5% booster, and 74% in the EU, 70.5% both, 52% booster. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of its population by 10th May 2024. The third ‘booster’ jab for new variants taking the date to 5th September 2025, and a fourth taking the date to 31st December 2026, and a fifth to 25th April 2028. Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.57% for the world and 0.88% for the UK, the current figures being 0.39% for the world and 0.11% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.34% and the current figure is 0.96%. The range for the world based on this figure is 0.39-2.33%, for the UK, 0.05-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%. As of 20/01/2022 there have been 438.4 million tests conducted in the UK, about 432.8 million antigen tests and 5.6 million antibody tests, 15.5 million positive of those 195.3 million processed, 7.94%, or 1 in 13 testing positive, 92.06%, 12 out of 13 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 70,000 and 109,000 new cases in the UK a day. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 38.6% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.6% of a country and still increasing. Highest mortality currently is 3.54% of a large district or state and still increasing. Highest mortality rate of those recorded as infected in an area is around 7.5%. 30 countries have infection rates over 20%, 82 countries have infection rates over 10% and 123 countries have infection rates over 5%. 23/01/2022 – The numbers are still just about falling in the UK, but the case rate isn’t falling as fast as it should for mainly omicron cases, suggsting re-infection. In the US numbers are levelling off, but mortality is not falling as it should for mainly omicron cases, the 21st being around 800,700 cases and 2917 deaths, the average mortality of about 1,800 being from about 550,000 cases in the period before, being about 30% higher than expected and quite a lot higher than in the UK. I think it’s much too soon to assume the end of anything and that covid still has many throws left of the dice, the likeliest problematic ones coming out of the middle east, followed by Africa and India. 24/01/2022 – The numbers in the UK have started to slow and now appear to be starting to increase slowly again. The numbers seem to be slowing down in the US, but nearly half the states don’t seem to be reporting regularly as they usually do now. This doesn’t seem to be unusual for  a lot of the countries aswell, presumable because the various governments deciding that too much reporting unsettles the populations, not believing in the saying ‘praemonitus, praemunitus.’ 25/01/2022 – The number of cases in Israel, one of the most highly vaccinated countries, continues to rise, virually all with a form of omicron. How such a variant could arise naturally is still very puzzling. After late updates of data numbers in the UK seem to be rising slightly, and the US seem to be falling slightly, but the US level slowing down. They seem to have stabilised, and data, although sketchy in some areas mean that calculations can be made again. It does seem to be worrying that the release or calculation of official figures have become a lot slower of late and in a number of cases in a new format compared to previous ones, making it harder to evaluate. Here is an update on the projected figures for the UK:
UK Model with Short Term Estimation
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
26/01/2022 Wednesday 78,171 260
27/01/2022 Thursday 77,661 239
28/01/2022 Friday 69,287 208
29/01/2022 Saturday 55,558 215
30/01/2022 Sunday 54,106 54
31/01/2022 Monday 72,926 46
01/02/2022 Tuesday 77,773 362
02/02/2022 Wednesday 64,453 214
03/02/2022 Thursday 64,033 197
04/02/2022 Friday 57,128 172
05/02/2022 Saturday 45,808 177
06/02/2022 Sunday 44,611 45
07/02/2022 Monday 59,482 38
08/02/2022 Tuesday 63,435 295
09/02/2022 Wednesday 52,571 175
10/02/2022 Thursday 52,228 161
11/02/2022 Friday 46,596 140
12/02/2022 Saturday 37,363 144
13/02/2022 Sunday 36,387 36
14/02/2022 Monday 48,780 31
15/02/2022 Tuesday 52,022 242
16/02/2022 Wednesday 43,112 143
17/02/2022 Thursday 42,831 132
18/02/2022 Friday 38,213 115
19/02/2022 Saturday 30,641 118
20/02/2022 Sunday 29,840 30
Here is an update for the project figures for the US:
US Model with Short Term Estimation
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
05/25/2022 Tuesday 554,412 1,744
05/26/2022 Wednesday 720,687 2,737
05/27/2022 Thursday 701,824 2,957
05/28/2022 Friday 811,692 2,815
05/29/2022 Saturday 393,510 1,034
05/30/2022 Sunday 468,111 903
05/31/2022 Monday 432,023 1,108
06/01/2022 Tuesday 514,923 1,619
06/02/2022 Wednesday 669,356 2,542
06/03/2022 Thursday 651,836 2,746
06/04/2022 Friday 753,878 2,615
06/05/2022 Saturday 365,482 960
06/06/2022 Sunday 434,769 839
06/07/2022 Monday 416,330 1,068
06/08/2022 Tuesday 496,219 1,561
06/09/2022 Wednesday 645,042 2,450
06/10/2022 Thursday 628,159 2,647
06/11/2022 Friday 726,495 2,520
06/12/2022 Saturday 352,206 925
06/13/2022 Sunday 418,977 808
06/14/2022 Monday 393,942 1,010
06/15/2022 Tuesday 469,535 1,477
06/16/2022 Wednesday 610,356 2,318
06/17/2022 Thursday 594,380 2,504
06/18/2022 Friday 687,428 2,384
06/19/2022 Saturday 333,266 876
06/20/2022 Sunday 396,447 765
26/01/2022 – The numbers in the UK are still not decreasing as fast as they should do and mortality is still higher from past cases than expected. The numbers is the US are still decreasing, but similarly the mortality is higher than expected from the past cases. Projections for the UK are as follows:
UK Model with Short Term Estimation
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
31/01/2022 Monday 79,039 50
01/02/2022 Tuesday 84,293 392
02/02/2022 Wednesday 91,411 309
03/02/2022 Thursday 86,567 302
04/02/2022 Friday 79,690 248
05/02/2022 Saturday 64,991 265
06/02/2022 Sunday 55,762 76
07/02/2022 Monday 72,663 46
08/02/2022 Tuesday 77,492 361
09/02/2022 Wednesday 84,037 284
10/02/2022 Thursday 79,583 278
11/02/2022 Friday 73,262 228
12/02/2022 Saturday 59,748 243
13/02/2022 Sunday 51,263 70
14/02/2022 Monday 65,867 42
15/02/2022 Tuesday 70,245 327
16/02/2022 Wednesday 76,178 258
17/02/2022 Thursday 72,141 252
18/02/2022 Friday 66,410 206
19/02/2022 Saturday 54,160 220
20/02/2022 Sunday 46,469 63
21/02/2022 Monday 60,130 38
22/02/2022 Tuesday 64,127 298
23/02/2022 Wednesday 69,543 235
24/02/2022 Thursday 65,857 230
25/02/2022 Friday 60,626 188
26/02/2022 Saturday 49,443 201
27/02/2022 Sunday 42,422 58
Projection for the US is as follows:
US Model with Short Term Estimation
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
01/31/2022 Monday 414,619 1,167
02/01/2022 Tuesday 450,259 2,620
02/02/2022 Wednesday 484,431 2,830
02/03/2022 Thursday 612,222 2,684
02/04/2022 Friday 470,990 2,447
02/05/2022 Saturday 343,271 983
02/06/2022 Sunday 408,347 788
02/07/2022 Monday 364,455 1,026
02/08/2022 Tuesday 395,783 2,303
02/09/2022 Wednesday 425,821 2,487
02/10/2022 Thursday 538,150 2,359
02/11/2022 Friday 414,006 2,151
02/12/2022 Saturday 301,739 864
02/13/2022 Sunday 358,942 693
02/14/2022 Monday 319,143 898
02/15/2022 Tuesday 346,576 2,016
02/16/2022 Wednesday 372,879 2,178
02/17/2022 Thursday 471,243 2,066
02/18/2022 Friday 362,533 1,883
02/19/2022 Saturday 264,224 757
02/20/2022 Sunday 314,315 606
02/21/2022 Monday 279,997 788
02/22/2022 Tuesday 304,065 1,769
02/23/2022 Wednesday 327,142 1,911
02/24/2022 Thursday 413,441 1,813
02/25/2022 Friday 318,065 1,652
02/26/2022 Saturday 231,815 664
02/27/2022 Sunday 275,762 532
31/01/2022 – Reporting still seems to be very sporadic and numbers not now being recorded or represented. The Omicron BA.2 variant now seems to be expanding, seeming to be more infectious than the Omicron BA.1 variant and tests less likely to be able to detect it, but doesn’t seem to be any more dangerous to vaccinated people. BA.1.1.529, BA.3 and BB.2 variants seem to be less of a concern. But with the ability to infect much larger numbers there may come the risk of combinatory variants or zoonotic barrier transfers back and forth. 02/02/2022 – Numbers in the UK are still staying steady but the mortality is higher than it should be for the standard omicron variant. Numbers in the US are still decreasing but showing similar. In Israel, one of the most highly vaccinated countries numbers are still showing a slight increase, but motrality is still staying low in comparison. As of today, 02/02/2022, in the world there have been 385 million cases with about an estimated 64 million active cases, increasing at +1.32% per day, and 5.72 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 17.5 million cases and 157,409 deaths. I suspect the actual number is closer to 219,000. It has an estimated 2,550,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 76.7 million cases and 916,000 deaths with about 12.2 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.2%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 1.49%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 0.9%. About 16.6% of known cases are still active in the world, 14.6% in the UK, 15.9% in the US. It’s likely 7.4% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 38.5% of the UK, and 34.5% of the US. It’s estimated that about 4.77 billion people (61%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 52.5 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 60 weeks ago, 48 million for the second dose, 36 million the 1st booster, averaging 324,000 doses a day over this period, but about 94,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 77% in the UK have had a dose of vaccine, 70% both, 52.5% 1st booster, 75.4% in the US, 64% both, 47% booster, and 74.5% in the EU, 71.5% both, 52.5% booster. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of its population by 15th July 2025. The third ‘booster’ jab for new variants taking the date to 8th July 2027, and a fourth taking the date to 29th June 2029, and a fifth to 22nd June 2031. Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.54% for the world and 0.86% for the UK, the current figures being 0.29% for the world and 0.23% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.33% and the current figure is 0.96%. The range for the world based on this figure is 0.23-2.33%, for the UK, 0.05-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%. As of 02/02/2022 there have been 456.8 million tests conducted in the UK, about 451.2 million antigen tests and 5.6 million antibody tests, 17.5 million positive of those 199.8 million processed, 8.76%, or 1 in 11 testing positive, 91.24%, 10 out of 11 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 66,000 and 104,000 new cases in the UK a day. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 46.9% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.61% of a country and still increasing. Highest mortality currently is 3.54% of a large district or state and still increasing. Highest mortality rate of those recorded as infected in an area is around 6.3%. 2 countries having infection rates over 40%, 13 countries having infection rates over 30%, 46 countries have infection rates over 20%, 92 countries have infection rates over 10% and 125 countries have infection rates over 5%. Numbers have been stabilising so the forecast data can be a bit more reliable. Forecast for the UK is as follows:
UK Model with Short Term Estimation
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
07/02/2022 Monday 87,815 48
08/02/2022 Tuesday 106,909 208
09/02/2022 Wednesday 83,743 508
10/02/2022 Thursday 83,825 305
11/02/2022 Friday 79,910 241
12/02/2022 Saturday 57,592 246
13/02/2022 Sunday 51,429 71
14/02/2022 Monday 83,736 46
15/02/2022 Tuesday 59,106 280
16/02/2022 Wednesday 79,853 484
17/02/2022 Thursday 79,931 291
18/02/2022 Friday 76,198 230
19/02/2022 Saturday 54,917 235
20/02/2022 Sunday 49,040 68
21/02/2022 Monday 79,728 44
22/02/2022 Tuesday 97,063 189
23/02/2022 Wednesday 76,031 461
24/02/2022 Thursday 76,105 277
25/02/2022 Friday 72,550 219
26/02/2022 Saturday 52,288 224
27/02/2022 Sunday 46,692 65
28/02/2022 Monday 75,968 42
01/03/2022 Tuesday 92,486 180
02/03/2022 Wednesday 72,445 439
03/03/2022 Thursday 72,516 264
04/03/2022 Friday 69,129 209
05/03/2022 Saturday 49,822 213
06/03/2022 Sunday 44,490 62
The forecast for the US is as follows:
US Model with Short Term Estimation
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
02/07/2022 Monday 199,713 952
02/08/2022 Tuesday 212,201 2,227
02/09/2022 Wednesday 228,287 2,310
02/10/2022 Thursday 212,811 2,206
02/11/2022 Friday 281,469 1,888
02/12/2022 Saturday 73,635 737
02/13/2022 Sunday 182,823 552
02/14/2022 Monday 125,244 597
02/15/2022 Tuesday 133,075 1,396
02/16/2022 Wednesday 143,164 1,449
02/17/2022 Thursday 133,458 1,384
02/18/2022 Friday 176,515 1,184
02/19/2022 Saturday 46,178 462
02/20/2022 Sunday 114,652 346
02/21/2022 Monday 85,464 407
02/22/2022 Tuesday 90,808 953
02/23/2022 Wednesday 97,692 989
02/24/2022 Thursday 91,069 944
02/25/2022 Friday 120,451 808
02/26/2022 Saturday 31,511 315
02/27/2022 Sunday 78,237 236
02/28/2022 Monday 55,958 267
03/01/2022 Tuesday 59,457 624
03/02/2022 Wednesday 63,964 647
03/03/2022 Thursday 59,628 618
03/04/2022 Friday 78,865 529
03/05/2022 Saturday 20,632 206
03/06/2022 Sunday 51,226 155
08/02/2022 – The number of cases in the world, the UK and the US seem to to be falling again. The latest Omicron strain starting to take over from the previous one. If you look at Israel, one of the most vaccinated populations the number of cases seem to be about 8 times the previous peak levels, but the overall mortality only about 50% higher, which suggests Omicron has a mortality rate of about 19% of previous variants after vaccinations. Israel is a technical society with good healthcare and has about 70% fully vaccinated with booster shots and a median population age of about 31, about 12.5% being over 65, being distributed at about 370 people per square kilometre, 50% of the population living in metropolitan areas at a average density of about 4,000 people per square kilometre. As of today, 13/02/2022, in the world there have been 412 million cases with about an estimated 59 million active cases, increasing at +1.31% per day, and 5.84 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 18.3 million cases and 159,590 deaths. I suspect the actual number is closer to 221,500. It has an estimated 2.4 million known active cases. The US is reporting 79.4 million cases and 943,570 deaths with about 7.5 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.19%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 1.42%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 0.87%. About 14.3% of known cases are still active in the world, 13.1% in the UK, 9.4% in the US. It’s likely 7.8% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 40% of the UK, and 35.7% of the US. This statistic is becoming less accurate with the increasing number of re-infections. It’s estimated that about 4.89 billion people (62%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 52.5 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 62 weeks ago, 48 million for the second dose, 36.2 million the 1st booster, averaging 317,000 doses a day over this period, but about 68,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 77% in the UK have had a dose of vaccine, 70% both, 53% 1st booster, 76% in the US, 64% both, 48% booster, and 75% in the EU, 72% both, 53.5% booster. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of its population by 16th November 2026. The third ‘booster’ jab for new variants taking the date to 8th August 2029, and a fourth taking the date to 1st May 2032, and a fifth to 23rd June 2035. Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.52% for the world and 0.85% for the UK, the current figures being 0.3% for the world and 0.37% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.32% and the current figure is 0.96%. The range for the world based on this figure is 0.23-2.33%, for the UK, 0.05-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%. As of 13/02/2022 there have been 471.8 million tests conducted in the UK, about 463.9 million antigen tests and 7.9 million antibody tests, 18.3 million positive of those 205.9 million processed, 8.89%, or 1 in 11 testing positive, 91.11%, 10 out of 11 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 46,000 and 72,000 new cases in the UK a day. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 58% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.62% of a country and still increasing. Highest mortality currently is 3.54% of a large district or state and still increasing. Highest mortality rate of those recorded as infected in an area is around 6.4%. 4 countries having infection rates over 40%, 18 countries having infection rates over 30%, 51 countries have infection rates over 20%, 97 countries have infection rates over 10% and 126 countries have infection rates over 5%. Vaccine uptake in nearly all countries is now reducing at an alarming rate with a number reducing their output of them. I think it unlikely that the risk is completely over, more likely being a lull while less dangerous variants are becoming the main one in areas. If I were to hazard a guess, then I would think it likely that a much more dangerous variant will come from the middle east or from africa again and spread quickly before governments are aware of it. A lesser chance would be a completely novel version from China or India. The numbers are hard to predict at the moment as I’m not sure as to the reliability of the released data. What is also problematical to factor in is the add on effect of reduced medical facilities that may increase mortality due to lower levels of health that result from it. Minor problems becoming moderate, moderate becoming major, major becoming serious and serious becoming acute, acute leading onto fatality due to reduced immune systems, covid, even a lesser variant, just pushing them over the edge. The long term effects of any serious covid infection not being known at the moment. With the numbers still high, zoonotic transfers back and forth with close proximity animals may also give rise to unusual conditions and variants arising. 14/02/2022 – Numbers are still falling in the UK and US, but mortality seems a bit higher than it should be in the US for the numbers reported. Likely that the week of the 24th will give quite a few deaths in Germany with it’s older median population. The previous projections had a number of errors in the formulas as the spreadsheets weren’t working properly, copying and updating only some values. I’ve now corrected them, so the figures should be for the UK:
Reworked UK 6th Model based on Published Data
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
16/02/2022 Wednesday 56,439 225
17/02/2022 Thursday 55,132 168
18/02/2022 Friday 48,729 157
19/02/2022 Saturday 38,078 136
20/02/2022 Sunday 34,144 42
21/02/2022 Monday 31,018 28
22/02/2022 Tuesday 34,398 186
23/02/2022 Wednesday 42,034 179
24/02/2022 Thursday 41,061 133
25/02/2022 Friday 36,292 125
26/02/2022 Saturday 28,359 108
27/02/2022 Sunday 25,429 34
28/02/2022 Monday 23,823 22
01/03/2022 Tuesday 26,419 146
02/03/2022 Wednesday 32,283 141
03/03/2022 Thursday 31,536 105
04/03/2022 Friday 27,873 98
05/03/2022 Saturday 21,781 85
06/03/2022 Sunday 19,531 26
07/03/2022 Monday 18,020 17
08/03/2022 Tuesday 19,983 111
09/03/2022 Wednesday 24,419 106
10/03/2022 Thursday 23,854 79
11/03/2022 Friday 21,083 74
12/03/2022 Saturday 16,475 64
13/03/2022 Sunday 14,773 20
For the US the projection is:
Reworked 5th US Model based on Published Data
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
02/21/2022 Monday 36807 380
02/22/2022 Tuesday 36080 983
02/23/2022 Wednesday 42074 1119
02/24/2022 Thursday 45781 924
02/25/2022 Friday 53963 898
02/26/2022 Saturday 43583 740
02/27/2022 Sunday 34115 279
02/28/2022 Monday 37396 353
03/01/2022 Tuesday 44475 978
03/02/2022 Wednesday 41206 958
03/03/2022 Thursday 47736 920
03/04/2022 Friday 52356 866
03/05/2022 Saturday 50684 763
03/06/2022 Sunday 34227 338
03/07/2022 Monday 41439 427
03/08/2022 Tuesday 44769 810
03/09/2022 Wednesday 49557 931
03/10/2022 Thursday 57445 960
03/11/2022 Friday 61202 913
03/12/2022 Saturday 54575 729
03/13/2022 Sunday 42256 328
03/14/2022 Monday 46139 335
03/15/2022 Tuesday 51705 846
03/16/2022 Wednesday 59850 970
03/17/2022 Thursday 66361 874
03/18/2022 Friday 71898 931
03/19/2022 Saturday 58572 658
03/20/2022 Sunday 51725 481
19/02/2020 – Numbers in the UK and US still seem to be falling at a constant rate and mortality in the UK is following suit. Mortality in the US still seems to be a lot higher than it should be considering the number of reported cases, so under reporting may be possible, or more people are dying in proportion from the variant current in those areas. ABout 41% of the population has caught one form of the disease. Uptake of vaccines in the UK work out to about 77% of the population for the first dose, 70% for the second and 53% for the first booster. I would estimate in the UK that about 20% of the UK has the highest level of protection, 41% has the next level of protection, 12% the third level of protection, 12% the lowest level of protection, and 15% no protection so far. This may vary considerably for any new variants, but hopefully not in too major a way, the most vulnerable part of the population, about 35%, hopefully all having higher levels. An unusual quirk is showing up in the stats of either a collection variation, or of possibly a relapsing effect taking place about 2 weeks after infection. As of today, 22/02/2022, in the world there have been 427.5 million cases with about an estimated 45 million active cases, increasing at +1.3% per day, and 5.92 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 18.7 million cases and 160,700 deaths. I suspect the actual number is closer to 221,500. It has an estimated 2.4 million known active cases. The US is reporting 80.2 million cases and 962,500 deaths with about 7.5 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.2%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 1.05%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 0.86%. About 10.5% of known cases are still active in the world, 12.8% in the UK, 9.4% in the US. It’s likely 8.2% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 41% of the UK, and 36% of the US. This statistic is becoming less accurate with the increasing number of re-infections. It’s estimated that about 4.9 billion people (62.5%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 52.6 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 63 weeks ago, 48.5 million for the second dose, 36.6 million the 1st booster, averaging 312,000 doses a day over this period, but about 60,500 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 77% in the UK have had a dose of vaccine, 71% both, 53% 1st booster, 76% in the US, 64.5% both, 48% booster, and 75% in the EU, 72.5% both, 54% booster. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of its population by 6th July 2027. The third ‘booster’ jab for new variants taking the date to 4th August 2030, and a fourth taking the date to 3rd September 2033, and a fifth to 2nd October 2036. Reworked Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.74% for the world and 0.96% for the UK, the current figures being 2.3% for the world and 0.23% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.5% and the current figure is 0.79%. The range for the world based on this figure is 0.27-5.94%, for the UK, 0.04-3.28% and for the US 0.3-3.65%. As of 22/02/2022 there have been 477.9 million tests conducted in the UK, about 470 million antigen tests and 7.9 million antibody tests, 18.7 million positive of those 207.1 million processed, 9.03%, or 1 in 11 testing positive, 90.97%, 10 out of 11 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 34,500 and 54,000 new cases in the UK a day. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 65% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.62% of a country and still increasing. Highest mortality currently is 3.54% of a large district or state and still increasing. Highest mortality rate of those recorded as infected in an area is around 6.4%. 6 countries having infection rates over 40%, 24 countries having infection rates over 30%, 54 countries have infection rates over 20%, 99 countries have infection rates over 10% and 126 countries have infection rates over 5%. 24/02/2022 – Number in the US don’t seem to be falling as fast as the recent drop projects, with likely similar higher numbers for mortality with the general reporting delay period 14 days later. Numbers in the UK still seem to be falling in line with the projections. On Sunday I can do a more likely set of projection figures for the US. Covid is expanding still in a number of other countries, Egypt being one of concern. Germany still has a high level of cases, the mortality in the next few days suggesting the overall effect. 27/02/2022 – Numbers in the UK and US are stall falling. The UK has stopped reporting at the weekends and may stop reporting altogether soon. The US has now delayed reporting, so at best the numbers are 2 days out of date for the day. Projection for the UK is as follows:
Reworked UK 6th Model based on Published Data
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
28/02/2022 Monday 29,090 10
01/03/2022 Tuesday 31,113 138
02/03/2022 Wednesday 30,101 110
03/03/2022 Thursday 29,553 84
04/03/2022 Friday 24,239 81
05/03/2022 Saturday 18,834 62
06/03/2022 Sunday 14,078 36
07/03/2022 Monday 22,283 7
08/03/2022 Tuesday 23,832 102
09/03/2022 Wednesday 23,057 82
10/03/2022 Thursday 22,637 62
11/03/2022 Friday 18,567 60
12/03/2022 Saturday 14,426 46
13/03/2022 Sunday 10,783 27
14/03/2022 Monday 16,991 6
15/03/2022 Tuesday 18,173 78
16/03/2022 Wednesday 17,582 62
17/03/2022 Thursday 17,261 47
18/03/2022 Friday 14,158 46
19/03/2022 Saturday 11,000 35
20/03/2022 Sunday 8,222 20
21/03/2022 Monday 12,986 4
22/03/2022 Tuesday 13,889 59
23/03/2022 Wednesday 13,437 48
24/03/2022 Thursday 13,192 36
25/03/2022 Friday 10,820 35
26/03/2022 Saturday 8,407 27
27/03/2022 Sunday 6,284 15
Projection for the US is as follows:
Reworked 5th US Model based on Published Data
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
02/28/2022 Monday 29,214 556
03/01/2022 Tuesday 40,310 1,552
03/02/2022 Wednesday 46,881 2,364
03/03/2022 Thursday 50,310 2,127
03/04/2022 Friday 47,043 1,811
03/05/2022 Saturday 20,426 894
03/06/2022 Sunday 10,039 377
03/07/2022 Monday 18,152 502
03/08/2022 Tuesday 25,046 1,401
03/09/2022 Wednesday 29,129 2,133
03/10/2022 Thursday 31,259 1,919
03/11/2022 Friday 29,230 1,634
03/12/2022 Saturday 12,691 807
03/13/2022 Sunday 6,237 340
03/14/2022 Monday 11,096 459
03/15/2022 Tuesday 15,311 1,283
03/16/2022 Wednesday 17,807 1,953
03/17/2022 Thursday 19,109 1,758
03/18/2022 Friday 17,868 1,496
03/19/2022 Saturday 7,758 739
03/20/2022 Sunday 3,813 311
03/21/2022 Monday 6,839 418
03/22/2022 Tuesday 9,436 1,166
03/23/2022 Wednesday 10,975 1,776
03/24/2022 Thursday 11,777 1,598
03/25/2022 Friday 11,013 1,360
03/26/2022 Saturday 4,781 672
03/27/2022 Sunday 2,350 283
As of today, 04/03/2022, in the world there have been 443.6 million cases with about an estimated 32 million active cases, increasing at +1.3% per day, and 6 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 19.1 million cases and 162,000 deaths. I suspect the actual number is closer to 225,000. It has an estimated 720,000 active cases. The US is reporting 80.9 million cases and 983,540 deaths with about 1.9 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.22%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 1.35%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 0.85%. About 7.2% of known cases are still active in the world, 3.8% in the UK, 2.3% in the US. It’s likely 8.5% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 42% of the UK, and 36.3% of the US. This statistic is becoming less accurate with the increasing number of re-infections. It’s estimated that about 4.94 billion people (63%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 52.7 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 64 weeks ago, 48.7 million for the second dose, 36.9 million the 1st booster, averaging 300,600 doses a day over this period, but about 46,500 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 77% in the UK have had a dose of vaccine, 71% both, 54% 1st booster, 76.5% in the US, 65% both, 49% booster, and 75% in the EU, 72.5% both, 54.5% booster. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of its population by 27th February 2029. The third ‘booster’ jab for new variants taking the date to 3rd March 2033, and a fourth taking the date to 7th March 2037, and a fifth to 11th March 2041. Reworked Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.71% for the world and 0.91% for the UK, the current figures being 0.35% for the world and 0.24% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.5% and the current figure is 1.06%. The range for the world based on this figure is 0.27-5.94%, for the UK, 0.03-3.29% and for the US 0.3-3.65%. As of 04/03/2022 there have been 486 million tests conducted in the UK, about 478 million antigen tests and 8 million antibody tests, 19.1 million positive of those 209.3 million processed, 9.13%, or 1 in 11 testing positive, 90.87%, 10 out of 11 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 24,000 and 37,000 new cases in the UK a day. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 70% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.63% of a country and still increasing. Highest mortality currently is 3.5% of a large district or state and still increasing. Highest mortality rate of those recorded as infected in an area is around 6%. 8 countries having infection rates over 40%, 28 countries having infection rates over 30%, 55 countries have infection rates over 20%, 101 countries have infection rates over 10% and 127 countries have infection rates over 5%. 04/03/2022 – Infection rates in the US are still falling, although information is now becoming much more sketchy and mortality is not falling as fast as it should, suggesting there may be a lot of cases now being unrecorded. The UK now seems to be showing a slight increase in cases, especially in Scotland. I am still worried by the number of cases around Egypt and the chance of a combined more deadly variant emerging from that area unnoticed, being concealed within numbers of Omicron. As of today, 12/03/2022, in the world there have been 457 million cases with about an estimated 33.4 million active cases, increasing at +1.3% per day, and 6.1 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 19.6 million cases and 162,800 deaths. I suspect the actual number is closer to 226,000. It has an estimated 744,000 active cases. The US is reporting 81.6 million cases and 993,950 deaths with about 1.3 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.22%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 1.33%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 0.83%. About 7.3% of known cases are still active in the world, 3.8% in the UK, 1.6% in the US. It’s likely 8.7% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 43% of the UK, and 36.6% of the US. This statistic is becoming less accurate with the increasing number of re-infections. It’s estimated that about 4.98 billion people (63.5%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 52.7 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 66 weeks ago, 48.8 million for the second dose, 37 million the 1st booster, averaging 301,700 doses a day over this period, but about 41,100 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 77% in the UK have had a dose of vaccine, 71.3% both, 54% 1st booster, 76.5% in the US, 65.3% both, 49.5% booster, and 75% in the EU, 72.9% both, 54.7% booster. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of its population by 1st February 2030. The third ‘booster’ jab for new variants taking the date to 13th August 2034, and a fourth taking the date to 23rd February 2039, and a fifth to 4th September 2043. Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.69% for the world and 0.9% for the UK, the current figures being 0.4% for the world and 0.31% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.5% and the current figure is 1.82%. The range for the world based on this figure is 0.27-5.94%, for the UK, 0.03-3.29% and for the US 0.3-3.65%. As of 12/03/2022 there have been 491.4 million tests conducted in the UK, about 483.4 million antigen tests and 8 million antibody tests, 19.6 million positive of those 211.3 million processed, 9.28%, or 1 in 11 testing positive, 90.72%, 10 out of 11 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 42,500 and 66,500 new cases in the UK a day. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 70% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.63% of a country and still increasing. Highest mortality currently is 3.5% of a large district or state and still increasing. Highest mortality rate of those recorded as infected in an area is around 6%. 9 countries having infection rates over 40%, 29 countries having infection rates over 30%, 59 countries have infection rates over 20%, 102 countries have infection rates over 10% and 130 countries have infection rates over 5%. 12/03/2022 – Deltacron is a cause for a little concern and suggests things may not be as ‘over’ as governments are now thinking and planning, with many now reducing their reporting of figures trying to enforce a return to a state of normal without it being normal. Numbers in the UK are rising again and there are signs in the US that more people are still dying than reporting suggests on average should do, from what is now being termed ‘a flu level virus,’ with current mortality being around 10 times a severe version.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *