Coronavirus Risks 10 (SARS-CoV-2)

I’ve been following the virus for 95 weeks now. Originally, I thought that it would be very limited, but that changed about 93 weeks ago, when the numbers began to rise and we found out more about it.

A rough estimate is that the outbreak started out around October 2019 in the vicinity of Wuhan, China. Most cases seem to have a root source at the wet market there. As the virus resembles closely that found in bats in the area it is likely that the zoonotic source was from there, although a similar virus was found in bats in mines a few hundred miles away and on a direct train line that links the two places, but without further investigation it’s just guesswork that live bats may have been transported on this line. Similarly, there has been speculation that it escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, but as this is a level 4 facility it would be highly unlikely from within it, there being over 100 throughout the world, a few in populated areas in the UK. There is a possibility that it could be peripheral transport to the facility, or through an infected member of staff who collected specimens and brought it back, but this is a thing that is more likely to happen to people just capturing specimens for sale, which is the likeliest scenario.

The infected seem to consist of a lot that are in recovery, official active cases currently 7.3%, but more likely 3.4%, increasing at a rate of 1.47% per day, but doesn’t seem to push the continuity risk to the average population above around about 1.5% mortality if you contract the disease based on current vaccination/non-vaccinated rates. Actual numbers are probably about 1.5X the recorded ones for cases, a figure that comes from about 6.7 billion tests being taken on about 37% of the world’s population, 47 countries now having tested all of their population. It’s likely that we are seeing the effects of various mutations in countries rather than a single one.

The rate has been pretty consistent since most countries locked down and the effects of this took place since May 2020. There was a lull in figures, but
that was probably due to countries finally getting around to working out the statistics, but the numbers are starting to rise in the world again in
proportion, so it suggests more potent variants are starting to appear and
replace the previous ones we know and are guarding against.

The moving average of active and infective cases suggest that the world as a whole under lockdown has an ‘R’ rate of about 1.01, so there is little chance of it being controlled even with current vaccines for at least 12 months, possibly years if the logistics are wrong. At the current trend the numbers will probably double every 31 weeks and keep on reoccurring or initiating in each country. Given mutations by numbers, it is probable that any country will need to stay in lockdown and isolate for the next couple of years to avoid it.

The effects of the Delta variant were expected. Since circumstances have not changed much over the last 12 months the likelihood of somebody in the world catching the disease is therefore now probably around 99% at some time, so all that can probably be done is to manage and delay, so that we are in the best position to weather the infection against the most active variant in the population. Status at the moment: 23 months and 4.5% of the world and counting.

There have been at least 36 major variants that have occurred in the first 242 million cases (3.09%) over a period of 25 months, of which 9 are worrying in respect of vaccines and long-term immunity. If you count minor variants or ‘lines’ then so far about 1380 have been found. The Variant first identified in India (Delta) is becoming commonplace in the UK, and seems to be replacing the current variant, and new variants first found in Thailand and Vietnam are concerning, the latter possibly a combination of the Indian and Kent variants imported, but being much more infective. The beta variant seems to be spreading faster than it had before, but not concerningly, being less susceptible to vaccines, as found in South Africa, and the more concerning Mu and Gamma variants, first detected in Colombia and Brazil have also so far been limited. None of the variants are particular to any country, just being where they were first identified, and it’s likely that any attempts to prevent a country receiving cases is just political, unless bans on movement is applied to all countries and all travellers. Probably by the time a ban is instituted it has already arrived.

Current Status:

This is a continuation of Coronavirus Risks 9, Coronavirus Risks 8,  Coronavirus Risks 7, Coronavirus Risks 6, a continuation of the original posts, Coronavirus Risks 5, Coronavirus Risks 4, Coronavirus Risks 3, Coronavirus Risks and Coronavirus Risks 2 that were also getting a bit long.

Calculation for the incidence of Long Covid works out to about on average 3.7 times the mortality rate for a country.

As of today, 09/09/2021, in the world there have been 224 million cases with about an estimated 12.9 million active cases, increasing at +1.56% per day, and 4.62 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 7.13 million cases and 133,841 deaths. It has an estimated 700,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 41.6 million cases and 673,000 deaths with about 3.17 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.62%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.06%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 1.88%. About 5.8% of known cases are still active in the world, 9.8% in the UK, 7.6% in the US.

It’s likely 4.3% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 15.7% of the UK, and 18.7% of the US.

It’s estimated that about 3.2 billion people (41.3%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 48.6 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 39 weeks ago, 43 million for the second dose, averaging 334,000 doses a day over this period, but about 127,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 72% in the UK have had a dose of vaccine, 64% both, 62.5% in the US, 53% both, and 66% in the EU, 60% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of its population by 27th March 2024. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 12th September 2025, and a fourth taking the date to 28th February 2027, and a fifth to 15th August 2028. Vaccine take up seems to be failing in most countries.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.75% for the world and 1.09% for the UK, the current figures being 1.28% for the world and 0.3% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.45% and the current figure is 0.96%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 09/09/2020 there have been 282.3 million tests conducted in the UK, about 277.5 million antigen tests and 4.8 million antibody tests, 7.13 million positive of those 133.8 million processed, 5.33%, or 1 in 19 testing positive, 94.67%, 18 out of 19 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 32,000 and 50,000 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 20.8% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.59% of a population and still increasing. Highest mortality rate in an area is around 9.2% of those infected. 91 countries have infection rates over 5%, 31 countries have infection rates over 10%.

The UK is averaging a 7.7% increase per week in cases, and an 11% mortality increase per week at the moment. The US is averaging a 6.6% increase per week in cases, and a 20.5% mortality increase per week at the moment. Israel is averaging a 18% increase per week in cases, and a 19% mortality increase per week at the moment, but the overall mortality from recent cases seems to be about 0.61% compared to the worlds 2.1%.

As of today, 14/09/2021, in the world there have been 226.5 million cases with about an estimated 12.5 million active cases, increasing at +1.55% per day, and 4.66 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 7.3 million cases and 134,400 deaths. It has an estimated 702,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 42.3 million cases and 681,100 deaths with about 3.15 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.62%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.06%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 1.86%. About 5.5% of known cases are still active in the world, 9.8% in the UK, 7.8% in the US.

It’s likely 4.3% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 15.7% of the UK, and 18.7% of the US.

It’s estimated that about 3.3 billion people (42.2%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 48.6 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 40 weeks ago, 43.5 million for the second dose, averaging 330,000 doses a day over this period, but about 108,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 72% in the UK have had a dose of vaccine, 64.5% both, 63% in the US, 53% both, and 66.5% in the EU, 60.5% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of its population by 15th September 2024. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 6th June 2026, and a fourth taking the date to 26th February 2028, and a fifth to 17th November 2029. Vaccine take up seems to be failing in most countries and in the UK about an 1/8th of it’s peak.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.74% for the world and 1.08% for the UK, the current figures being 1.29% for the world and 0.34% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.44% and the current figure is 0.96%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 14/09/2020 there have been 286.4 million tests conducted in the UK, about 281.6 million antigen tests and 4.8 million antibody tests, 7.3 million positive of those 135.3 million processed, 5.4%, or 1 in 19 testing positive, 94.6%, 18 out of 19 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 28,500 and 45,000 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 20.9% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.59% of a population and still increasing. Highest mortality rate in an area is around 9.2% of those infected. 91 countries have infection rates over 5%, 31 countries have infection rates over 10%.

Projections for UK are below:

6th UK Model with Recalculation for Delta
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
14/09/2021 Tuesday 38,319 190
15/09/2021 Wednesday 39,838 211
16/09/2021 Thursday 37,971 205
17/09/2021 Friday 38,455 143
18/09/2021 Saturday 30,201 144
19/09/2021 Sunday 29,819 57
20/09/2021 Monday 30,596 59
21/09/2021 Tuesday 38,035 215
22/09/2021 Wednesday 39,543 216
23/09/2021 Thursday 37,689 204
24/09/2021 Friday 38,170 141
25/09/2021 Saturday 29,977 136
26/09/2021 Sunday 29,598 52
27/09/2021 Monday 30,135 57
28/09/2021 Tuesday 37,461 215
29/09/2021 Wednesday 38,946 218
30/09/2021 Thursday 37,120 201
01/10/2021 Friday 37,594 136
02/10/2021 Saturday 29,525 130
03/10/2021 Sunday 29,151 50
04/10/2021 Monday 29,796 53
05/10/2021 Tuesday 37,040 211
06/10/2021 Wednesday 38,508 214
07/10/2021 Thursday 36,703 198
08/10/2021 Friday 37,171 135
09/10/2021 Saturday 29,193 129
10/10/2021 Sunday 28,823 50

Projections for US are below:

5th Model for US with Some Adjustments for variants
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
09/15/2021 Tuesday 101,995 776
09/16/2021 Wednesday 151,378 1,798
09/17/2021 Thursday 159,313 2,021
09/18/2021 Friday 163,029 1,678
09/19/2021 Saturday 68,787 685
09/20/2021 Sunday 33,773 239
09/21/2021 Monday 101,583 757
09/22/2021 Tuesday 94,679 721
09/23/2021 Wednesday 140,521 1,669
09/24/2021 Thursday 147,887 1,876
09/25/2021 Friday 151,336 1,557
09/26/2021 Saturday 63,853 636
09/27/2021 Sunday 31,350 222
09/28/2021 Monday 95,551 712
09/29/2021 Tuesday 89,057 678
09/30/2021 Wednesday 132,177 1,570
10/01/2021 Thursday 139,105 1,764
10/02/2021 Friday 142,349 1,465
10/03/2021 Saturday 60,062 598
10/04/2021 Sunday 29,489 209
10/05/2021 Monday 89,288 665
10/06/2021 Tuesday 83,219 634
10/07/2021 Wednesday 123,512 1,467
10/08/2021 Thursday 129,987 1,649
10/09/2021 Friday 133,018 1,369
10/10/2021 Saturday 56,124 559
10/11/2021 Sunday 27,556 195

As of today, 19/09/2021, in the world there have been 229.3 million cases with about an estimated 11.6 million active cases, increasing at +1.54% per day, and 4.71 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 7.4 million cases and 135,200 deaths. It has an estimated 673,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 42.9 million cases and 691,800 deaths with about 3.09 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.61%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.01%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 1.83%. About 5.1% of known cases are still active in the world, 9.1% in the UK, 7.2% in the US.

It’s likely 4.4% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 16.3% of the UK, and 19.3% of the US.

It’s estimated that about 3.4 billion people (43%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 48.7 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 41 weeks ago, 43.8 million for the second dose, averaging 325,000 doses a day over this period, but about 84,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 72% in the UK have had a dose of vaccine, 65% both, 63% in the US, 54% both, and 66.5% in the EU, 61% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of its population by 2nd August 2025. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 21st October 2027, and a fourth taking the date to 9th January 2030, and a fifth to 30th March 2032. Vaccine take up seems to be failing in most countries and in the UK about a 1/10th of it’s peak.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.75% for the world and 1.07% for the UK, the current figures being 1.29% for the world and 0.36% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.44% and the current figure is 0.96%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 19/09/2020 there have been 291.4 million tests conducted in the UK, about 286.6 million antigen tests and 4.8 million antibody tests, 7.4 million positive of those 137.2 million processed, 5.39%, or 1 in 19 testing positive, 94.61%, 18 out of 19 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 24,000 and 37,000 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 21.1% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.59% of a population and still increasing. Highest mortality rate in an area is around 9.2% of those infected. 92 countries have infection rates over 5%, 31 countries have infection rates over 10%.

The numbers seem to be generally decreasing in the UK and US except for the last few days, so the next week may be uncertain.

Major Sequence changes
del 69-70
del 246-252
N440K
G446V
L452R
Y453F
S477G/N
E484Q
E484K
F490S
N501Y
N501S
D614G
Q677P/H
D614G
P681R
A701V
Potential combinations=356 trillion effects

Virus Lines: Virus Lines.

It’s a game of numbers. This means it will not apply to individual cases. Prior to the Delta variant the average chance for dying from covid-19 was about 2%. This went from very small, about 0.1% at 18 to 15% at 80. If you had both vaccine doses, mRNA or non-mRNA based, this reduced it to about 0.2% overall, changing the risks from about 0.03% at 18 to 0.5% at 80. But having the vaccine was a small risk, being about 0.001%, so the advantages were very high for the old, but lesser, but still appreciable for the young.

Immunocompromised people would have a lesser effective utilisation of the vaccines and may produce more problems with them, but the odds for vaccines are still appreciably higher.

Long covid is probably about 5 times the number of deaths, and the long term results if cell damage are uncertain, probably for another 20 years.

Comparing coronaviruses, we catch the same coronavirus under the name ‘a cold’ about 7 times in our lifetime, so was pretty obvious at the start that immunity wanes for them, otherwise we wouldn’t get them again, about every decade.

Because of the nature of mRNA vaccines, they provide a better targeted immunity than non-mRNA vaccines, but they are more specific. This means that with mutations that are always happening they lose focus quicker than non-mRNA ones or having been infected. Being infected is roughly equivalent to one dose of a vaccine.

So, you get slightly more initial protection from 2 doses of pFizer of Moderna than AstraZenenca, but the protection after 1 year is slightly less. Catching covid probably gives you a 50% of astrazeneca levels.

This overall gives a number of advantages, that vaccinated people are less likely to get and spread the disease, and are much less likely to suffer bad results from it.

Then along comes Delta, a major set of mutations, and the rules and proportions change, so the old figures, ways of thinking of covid, and strategies, can be mostly thrown away. You can’t use the old proportions and numbers in your calculations anymore.

This seems to infect nearly as many people who are vaccinated as unvaccinated, the viral loads being similar. Also, for onwards transmission, being vaccinated and unvaccinated are not now so distinct. You are likely to have a shorter period of infectivity, but a lot more people will be unaware they have it and go out. Tests will also be affected, with more false negatives, but it’s still saturation, proximity and duration that defines the effects, masks being a part of this.

Vaccinations still mainly protect, so the odds are around 0.4%, ranging from 0.06% at 18 to 0.1% at 80, but the effectiveness of the vaccines is waning, so that a year after the 2nd dose, mRNA is only 50% effective and non-mRNA about 60%, having previously had covid probably around 40%.

This is enough to limit the figures, but a booster or a full vaccination would raise them back to prior levels of just being vaccinated.

So far, we have had about 36 major variants, 1373 minor ones, mainly affecting 17 sequences in 23 months and maybe about 5% of the world infected, with about 43% vaccinated, so say about 1.5 variants emerging per month, so immunity is very likely to continue to wane with the stop start diet of opening and closing society.

The world and UK do really need a long-term strategy rather than just a reactive one. It was pretty obvious from day one that booster shots will be required, and continue to be required for the next decade or two. People get older and more infirm, the 25 years olds being 45 in 20 years time and running into the risk zone, 35 years old being 55 and at risk.

Resources are starting to run thin, and everywhere around the world is running into extended delivery times and shortages, supply lines under threat, with large countries risking losing everything they have and planning conquest.

The forecast for the next 4 weeks for the UK is:

6th UK Model with Recalculation for Delta
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
20/09/2021 Monday 28,261 54
21/09/2021 Tuesday 24,413 161
22/09/2021 Wednesday 28,052 169
23/09/2021 Thursday 24,672 132
24/09/2021 Friday 29,935 142
25/09/2021 Saturday 27,636 139
26/09/2021 Sunday 27,149 47
27/09/2021 Monday 24,622 46
28/09/2021 Tuesday 21,270 124
29/09/2021 Wednesday 24,440 135
30/09/2021 Thursday 21,496 99
01/10/2021 Friday 26,081 114
02/10/2021 Saturday 24,078 115
03/10/2021 Sunday 23,653 39
04/10/2021 Monday 22,013 36
05/10/2021 Tuesday 19,016 98
06/10/2021 Wednesday 21,850 108
07/10/2021 Thursday 19,218 79
08/10/2021 Friday 23,317 93
09/10/2021 Saturday 21,527 97
10/10/2021 Sunday 21,147 33
11/10/2021 Monday 19,429 29
12/10/2021 Tuesday 16,784 80
13/10/2021 Wednesday 19,286 87
14/10/2021 Thursday 16,962 64
15/10/2021 Friday 20,580 75
16/10/2021 Saturday 19,000 78
17/10/2021 Sunday 18,665 26

21/9/2021. In some ways the figures for the UK are worrying as we have had 4 days of rises after 9 days of decreases. Too early to work out the trend, but the next week should indicate the direction the figures are going.

As of today, 22/09/2021, in the world there have been 231.7 million cases with about an estimated 11.6 million active cases, increasing at +1.53% per day, and 4.73 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 7.53 million cases and 135,621 deaths. It has an estimated 673,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 43.4 million cases and 699,000 deaths with about 3.1 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.61%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.04%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 1.8%. About 5% of known cases are still active in the world, 8.9% in the UK, 7.1% in the US.

It’s likely 4.4% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 16.5% of the UK, and 19.5% of the US.

It’s estimated that about 3.5 billion people (45%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 48.9 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 41 weeks ago, 43.9 million for the second dose, averaging 323,000 doses a day over this period, but about 76,700 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 72.2% in the UK have had a dose of vaccine, 65.1% both, 63.3% in the US, 54.2% both, and 66.9% in the EU, 61.3% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of its population by 15th December 2025. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 20th May 2028, and a fourth taking the date to 24th October 2030, and a fifth to 29th March 2033. Vaccine take up seems to be failing in most countries and in the UK to about 8.7% of it’s peak.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.73% for the world and 1.07% for the UK, the current figures being 1.23% for the world and 0.34% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.43% and the current figure is 0.96%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 22/09/2020 there have been 295.9 million tests conducted in the UK, about 291.1 million antigen tests and 4.8 million antibody tests, 7.53 million positive of those 139.3 million processed, 5.4%, or 1 in 18 testing positive, 94.6%, 17 out of 18 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 24,000 and 38,000 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 21.1% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.59% of a population and still increasing. Highest mortality rate in an area is around 9.2% of those infected. 93 countries have infection rates over 5%, 32 countries have infection rates over 10%.

26/09/2021 The figures for the UK are worrying as we have had 9 days of rises after 9 days of decreases. The trend is now for cases to rise at about +18.5% a week. Recent news items seem to suggest that the numbers of cases are falling. It’s a bit baffling where they are getting their figures.

As of today, 27/09/2021, in the world there have been 233 million cases with about an estimated 10.8 million active cases, increasing at +1.52% per day, and 4.73 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 7.7 million cases and 136,226 deaths. It has an estimated 645,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 43.8 million cases and 706,500 deaths with about 2.65 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.61%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.03%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 1.77%. About 4.6% of known cases are still active in the world, 8.4% in the UK, 6.1% in the US.

It’s likely 4.5% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 16.9% of the UK, and 19.7% of the US.

It’s estimated that about 3.5 billion people (45%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 49 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 42 weeks ago, 44 million for the second dose, averaging 318,000 doses a day over this period, but about 66,900 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 72.5% in the UK have had a dose of vaccine, 66% both, 64% in the US, 55% both, and 67% in the EU, 62.5% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of its population by 3rd August 2026. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 16th May 2029, and a fourth taking the date to 27th February 2032, and a fifth to 10th December 2034. Vaccine take up seems to be failing in most countries and in the UK to about 1/12th of it’s peak, so about the same numbers in a year as it previously did in a month.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.72% for the world and 1.06% for the UK, the current figures being 1.28% for the world and 0.32% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.43% and the current figure is 0.96%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 27/09/2020 there have been 302 million tests conducted in the UK, about 297.2 million antigen tests and 4.8 million antibody tests, 7.7 million positive of those 141.3 million processed, 5.4%, or 1 in 18 testing positive, 94.6%, 17 out of 18 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 27,000 and 42,500 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 21.4% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.59% of a population and still increasing. Highest mortality rate in an area is around 9.2% of those infected. 94 countries have infection rates over 5%, 33 countries have infection rates over 10%.

The UK is changing pattern so more accurate figures won’t be likely to be ready for at least a week. Forecast for the UK is as below:

6th UK Model with Recalculation for Delta
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
27/09/2021 Monday 38,153 58
28/09/2021 Tuesday 33,359 193
29/09/2021 Wednesday 36,419 172
30/09/2021 Thursday 38,797 178
01/10/2021 Friday 37,651 174
02/10/2021 Saturday 33,130 131
03/10/2021 Sunday 34,260 59
04/10/2021 Monday 42,076 64
05/10/2021 Tuesday 36,789 223
06/10/2021 Wednesday 40,164 194
07/10/2021 Thursday 42,787 221
08/10/2021 Friday 41,522 201
09/10/2021 Saturday 36,537 149
10/10/2021 Sunday 37,783 70
11/10/2021 Monday 45,435 76
12/10/2021 Tuesday 39,726 263
13/10/2021 Wednesday 43,371 227
14/10/2021 Thursday 46,203 265
15/10/2021 Friday 44,837 231
16/10/2021 Saturday 39,454 170
17/10/2021 Sunday 40,800 80
18/10/2021 Monday 49,585 88
19/10/2021 Tuesday 43,355 305
20/10/2021 Wednesday 47,333 264
21/10/2021 Thursday 50,423 306
22/10/2021 Friday 48,933 270
23/10/2021 Saturday 43,058 200
24/10/2021 Sunday 44,526 93

Forecast for the US is as below:

5th Model for US with Some Adjustments for variants
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
09/27/2021 Monday 78,255 678
09/28/2021 Tuesday 109,627 1,752
09/29/2021 Wednesday 121,484 2,026
09/30/2021 Thursday 115,886 1,795
10/01/2021 Friday 119,108 1,822
10/02/2021 Saturday 49,199 696
10/03/2021 Sunday 22,132 235
10/04/2021 Monday 67,798 588
10/05/2021 Tuesday 94,978 1,518
10/06/2021 Wednesday 105,251 1,755
10/07/2021 Thursday 100,401 1,555
10/08/2021 Friday 103,192 1,579
10/09/2021 Saturday 42,625 603
10/10/2021 Sunday 19,175 204
10/11/2021 Monday 60,189 522
10/12/2021 Tuesday 84,319 1,348
10/13/2021 Wednesday 93,439 1,558
10/14/2021 Thursday 89,133 1,380
10/15/2021 Friday 91,612 1,401
10/16/2021 Saturday 37,841 535
10/17/2021 Sunday 17,023 181
10/18/2021 Monday 52,790 458
10/19/2021 Tuesday 73,954 1,182
10/20/2021 Wednesday 81,953 1,366
10/21/2021 Thursday 78,177 1,211
10/22/2021 Friday 80,350 1,229
10/23/2021 Saturday 33,190 469
10/24/2021 Sunday 14,930 159

29/09/2021 The figures for the UK are worrying as we have had 12 days of rises after 9 days of decreases. The trend is now for cases to rise at about +13.7% a week. UK Vaccinations are now 1/13th of its peak.

As of today, 04/10/2021, in the world there have been 236 million cases with about an estimated 9.7 million active cases, increasing at +1.51% per day, and 4.82 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 7.93 million cases and 136,986 deaths. It has an estimated 652,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 44.6 million cases and 720,000 deaths with about 2.38 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.61%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.04%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 1.73%. About 4.1% of known cases are still active in the world, 8.2% in the UK, 5.3% in the US.

It’s likely 4.5% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 17.4% of the UK, and 20.1% of the US.

It’s estimated that about 3.58 billion people (45.8%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 49 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 43 weeks ago, 44.4 million for the second dose, averaging 312,000 doses a day over this period, but about 62,375 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 72.5% in the UK have had a dose of vaccine, 66% both, 64% in the US, 55.5% both, and 67.5% in the EU, 63% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of its population by 16th December 2026. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 10th December 2029, and a fourth taking the date to 5th December 2032, and a fifth to 13th November 2035. Vaccine take up seems to be failing in most countries and in the UK to about 1/20th of it’s peak.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.72% for the world and 1.04% for the UK, the current figures being 1.28% for the world and 0.37% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.42% and the current figure is 0.96%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 04/10/2020 there have been 308.6 million tests conducted in the UK, about 303.5 million antigen tests and 4.9 million antibody tests, 7.93 million positive of those 144.5 million processed, 5.49%, or 1 in 18 testing positive, 94.51%, 17 out of 18 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 27,500 and 43,000 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 21.5% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.59% of a population and still increasing. Highest mortality rate in an area is around 9.2% of those infected. 96 countries have infection rates over 5%, 36 countries have infection rates over 10%.

04/10/2021 In the UK we have had 5 days of moderate decreases after 9 days of rises, and 7 days of decreases before that, so figures are going to be a bit random at the moment until a trend can be worked out.

09/10/2021 In the UK we have had 4 days of rises following 6 days of moderate decreases after 9 days of rises, and 7 days of decreases before that, so figures are going to be a bit random at the moment until a trend can be worked out.

As of today, 12/10/2021, in the world there have been 239.3 million cases with about an estimated 9.2 million active cases, increasing at +1.5% per day, and 4.88 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 8.23 million cases and 137,950 deaths. It has an estimated 675,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 45.4 million cases and 735,100 deaths with about 2.38 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.62%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.04%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 1.68%. About 3.8% of known cases are still active in the world, 8.2% in the UK, 5.2% in the US.

It’s likely 4.6% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 18.1% of the UK, and 20.1% of the US.

It’s estimated that about 3.8 billion people (48%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 49.2 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 44 weeks ago, 44.5 million for the second dose, averaging 306,000 doses a day over this period, but about 61,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 72.5% in the UK have had a dose of vaccine, 66.5% both, 64.5% in the US, 56% both, and 68% in the EU, 64% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of its population by 7th February 2027. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 27th December 2030, and a fourth taking the date to 19th March 2033, and a fifth to 8th April 2036. Vaccine take up seems to be failing in most countries and in the UK to about 1/20th of it’s peak.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.71% for the world and 1.03% for the UK, the current figures being 1.26% for the world and 0.29% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.42% and the current figure is 0.96%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 12/10/2020 there have been 315.9 million tests conducted in the UK, about 311 million antigen tests and 4.9 million antibody tests, 8.23 million positive of those 147.7 million processed, 5.57%, or 1 in 18 testing positive, 94.43%, 17 out of 18 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 30,500 and 48,000 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 21.8% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.6% of a population and still increasing. Highest mortality rate in an area is around 9.1% of those infected. 96 countries have infection rates over 5%, 37 countries have infection rates over 10%.

The figures are constantly varying up and down alternately week by week at the moment ,so any predictions are quite uncertain, but the forecasts for the UK are as below:

6th UK Model with Recalculation for Delta
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
13/10/2021 Wednesday 41,245 167
14/10/2021 Thursday 42,125 152
15/10/2021 Friday 37,321 133
16/10/2021 Saturday 36,172 143
17/10/2021 Sunday 35,783 40
18/10/2021 Monday 42,346 32
19/10/2021 Tuesday 36,903 197
20/10/2021 Wednesday 43,421 183
21/10/2021 Thursday 44,347 163
22/10/2021 Friday 39,290 141
23/10/2021 Saturday 38,081 161
24/10/2021 Sunday 37,671 45
25/10/2021 Monday 44,529 35
26/10/2021 Tuesday 38,805 212
27/10/2021 Wednesday 45,659 200
28/10/2021 Thursday 46,633 181
29/10/2021 Friday 41,315 153
30/10/2021 Saturday 40,043 179
31/10/2021 Sunday 39,613 49
01/11/2021 Monday 46,851 40
02/11/2021 Tuesday 40,829 233
03/11/2021 Wednesday 48,040 219
04/11/2021 Thursday 49,065 197
05/11/2021 Friday 43,470 167
06/11/2021 Saturday 42,132 195
07/11/2021 Sunday 41,678 54

It’s similar with the US, but the trend seems to be decreasing. The forecast for the US is as below:

5th Model for US with Some Adjustments for variants
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
10/12/2021 Tuesday 85,613 1,635
10/13/2021 Wednesday 97,511 1,898
10/14/2021 Thursday 92,186 1,543
10/15/2021 Friday 95,986 1,749
10/16/2021 Saturday 38,332 525
10/17/2021 Sunday 22,298 467
10/18/2021 Monday 44,503 358
10/19/2021 Tuesday 75,497 1,442
10/20/2021 Wednesday 85,989 1,674
10/21/2021 Thursday 81,293 1,361
10/22/2021 Friday 84,644 1,542
10/23/2021 Saturday 33,802 463
10/24/2021 Sunday 19,664 412
10/25/2021 Monday 39,066 314
10/26/2021 Tuesday 66,273 1,266
10/27/2021 Wednesday 75,483 1,469
10/28/2021 Thursday 71,361 1,195
10/29/2021 Friday 74,302 1,354
10/30/2021 Saturday 29,673 406
10/31/2021 Sunday 17,261 361
11/01/2021 Monday 34,371 277
11/02/2021 Tuesday 58,309 1,114
11/03/2021 Wednesday 66,412 1,293
11/04/2021 Thursday 62,785 1,051
11/05/2021 Friday 65,373 1,191
11/06/2021 Saturday 26,107 357
11/07/2021 Sunday 15,187 318

Thinking of the status of the virus given the recent figures and overall changes I would think that the current situation will probably become the norm for the next decade, with numbers rising and falling around the current values. Vaccination take-up is falling dramatically with booster shots not happening, so I would imagine outbreaks constantly occurring and mortality rate rising through the year. If things don’t change then it seems very likely that at least a yearly lockdown will probably happen for most countries, with the resultant knock on effect on supply lines and production, a world depression, inflation, and falling overall real incomes. With weak resilience in power and more extreme environmentalism we might be facing severe problems worse than climate change, especially if there is a concurrent major disaster. We are simply now not ready to face such an occurrence, as our current standards of living are not sustainable given the current condition and psychology of the world.

14/10/2021 – The trend for the UK seems to be upward as for the past 9 days they have been going in this direction. In the UK vaccinations are at an all time low for both flu and covid. Trends for other viruses and outcomes for other illnesses have become worse. Longevity figures hve not been calculated recently, but I would imagine that overall this has reduced by as much as 6 years over the past year, reducing the longevity at birth in the UK from an average of about 81 to around 75, the level 40 years ago, losing all the medical advantage since then.

18/10/2021 – Trend for the UK is as follows:

6th UK Model with Recalculation for Delta
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
19/10/2021 Tuesday 42,980 214
20/10/2021 Wednesday 47,729 170
21/10/2021 Thursday 50,284 183
22/10/2021 Friday 50,134 176
23/10/2021 Saturday 48,451 194
24/10/2021 Sunday 50,367 70
25/10/2021 Monday 56,688 55
26/10/2021 Tuesday 49,565 266
27/10/2021 Wednesday 55,042 207
28/10/2021 Thursday 57,989 234
29/10/2021 Friday 57,816 231
30/10/2021 Saturday 55,874 258
31/10/2021 Sunday 58,084 97
01/11/2021 Monday 64,716 74
02/11/2021 Tuesday 56,585 339
03/11/2021 Wednesday 62,837 261
04/11/2021 Thursday 66,201 294
05/11/2021 Friday 66,004 297
06/11/2021 Saturday 63,788 330
07/11/2021 Sunday 66,310 125
08/11/2021 Monday 74,257 95
09/11/2021 Tuesday 64,927 435
10/11/2021 Wednesday 72,101 336
11/11/2021 Thursday 75,961 378
12/11/2021 Friday 75,735 379
13/11/2021 Saturday 73,191 423
14/11/2021 Sunday 76,085 160

Trend for the US is as follows:

5th Model for US with Some Adjustments for variants
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
10/19/2021 Tuesday 73,137 1,286
10/20/2021 Wednesday 85,844 1,581
10/21/2021 Thursday 77,940 1,437
10/22/2021 Friday 81,152 1,517
10/23/2021 Saturday 29,471 403
10/24/2021 Sunday 15,597 140
10/25/2021 Monday 37,661 303
10/26/2021 Tuesday 62,802 1,104
10/27/2021 Wednesday 73,713 1,357
10/28/2021 Thursday 66,926 1,234
10/29/2021 Friday 69,684 1,303
10/30/2021 Saturday 25,306 346
10/31/2021 Sunday 13,393 120
11/01/2021 Monday 32,535 262
11/02/2021 Tuesday 54,254 954
11/03/2021 Wednesday 63,680 1,173
11/04/2021 Thursday 57,816 1,066
11/05/2021 Friday 60,199 1,126
11/06/2021 Saturday 21,862 299
11/07/2021 Sunday 11,570 104
11/08/2021 Monday 28,022 225
11/09/2021 Tuesday 46,728 822
11/10/2021 Wednesday 54,847 1,010
11/11/2021 Thursday 49,797 918
11/12/2021 Friday 51,849 970
11/13/2021 Saturday 18,829 258
11/14/2021 Sunday 9,965 89

As of today, 21/10/2021, in the world there have been 243.2 million cases with about an estimated 8.24 million active cases, increasing at +1.5% per day, and 4.94 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 8.64 million cases and 139,207 deaths. It has an estimated 783,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 46.2 million cases and 752,000 deaths with about 1.72 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.63%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.03%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 1.61%. About 3.4% of known cases are still active in the world, 9.1% in the UK, 3.7% in the US.

It’s likely 4.7% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 19% of the UK, and 20.8% of the US.

It’s estimated that about 3.8 billion people (48.1%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 49.5 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 45 weeks ago, 44.6 million for the second dose, averaging 299,000 doses a day over this period, but about 59,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 72.6% in the UK have had a dose of vaccine, 66.7% both, 65.3% in the US, 56.5% both, and 68.5% in the EU, 64.5% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of its population by 29th April 2027. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 29th June 2030, and a fourth taking the date to 29th August 2033, and a fifth to 29th October 2036. Vaccine take up seems to be failing in most countries and in the UK to about 1/15th of it’s peak.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.7% for the world and 1.02% for the UK, the current figures being 1.33% for the world and 0.31% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.41% and the current figure is 0.96%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 21/10/2020 there have been 325 million tests conducted in the UK, about 320 million antigen tests and 5 million antibody tests, 8.64 million positive of those 151.2 million processed, 5.71%, or 1 in 17 testing positive, 94.39%, 16 out of 17 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 39,000 and 61,000 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 22.1% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.6% of a population and still increasing. Highest mortality rate in an area is around 9.1% of those infected. 96 countries have infection rates over 5%, 40 countries have infection rates over 10%.

I’m not sure what is happening in the US, but the figures are confusing. The number of cases seem to be constantly falling at the moment, but mortality that should also be falling is in fact rising, suggesting that at a slightly more virulent version has started to appear, or the vaccines are started to become significantly less effective over time since administered. The US vaccines were more of the mRNA type, compared to various mixes in other countries, so this may be significant. No new variant seems to be around to explain it.

The numbers in the UK are rising again, faster than expected. There seems no doubt about the original prediction that a yearly booster shot will be necessary. There seems a good probability that mortality may rise to the same higher level of that seen previously, but with people already having had the vaccine, each booster making a difference. The roll-out of the booster shots is currently failing quite badly.

If I made a guess at the average reduction in effectiveness of the vaccines overall, based on the increases and variants I would estimate it to be about 3% per month after 1 month subsequent to the second administration, with mRNA vaccines reducing slightly quicker at about 4% per month.

24/10/2021 – I’ve now found time to analyse the figures on deaths by cause and found that there are about 26,000 deaths in the UK unaccounted for. Either they actually died from Covid-19, so the figure is closer to 165,500, or they died because of Covid-19’s existence. If not Covid, then not attending appointments or seeking medical help when it was required, or because of the reduction in availability of those medical appointments or treatments.

Variants of Concern: Variants of Concern.

25/10/2021 – We have now had 1 day of minor increase compared to previous ones and 2 days of decreases in the UK, so this week looks like it will be important as to the general trend, but there have been similar dips recently without any real reasons being discernable. What is worrying is the number of cases in the UK that seem to be from a slightly more effective Delta derived variant AY.4.2 that have the spike mutations L452R, T478K, D614G, P681R, Y145H and A222V.

26/10/2021 – We have now had 1 day of minor increase compared to previous ones and 3 days of decreases in the UK, so this week looks like it will be important as to the general trend, although there have been similar dips, things seem to be improving, especially with booster shots that probably number around 5 million so far, or about 20% of the more vulnerable.

The US has continued to decrease in number of cases for 5 weeks, an odd occurrence of mortality rising for a week when it should be falling, suggesting a variant change or just reaching new areas, but it seems to be continuing to fall now.

Booster shot plans around the world are pretty indifferent, with the WHO suggesting they are not currently needed, and that poorer nations should receive vaccinations instead. Vaccinations are not ‘one off’ things, but reduce gradually over time, especially mRNA derived ones after 6 months, with a widespread and continuingly changing virus. Some are waiting until evidence they are needed or required, so the equivalent of waiting for a breakdown before doing any maintenance. Reactive policies, treating illness and solving disasters, rather than proactive policies, preventing illness and disasters.

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