Coronavirus Risks 9 (SARS-CoV-2)

I’ve been following the virus for 82 weeks now now. Originally I thought that it would be very limited, but that changed about 80 weeks ago, when the numbers began to rise and we found out more about it. A rough estimate is that the outbreak started out around october 2019 in the vicinity of Wuhan, China. Most cases seem to have a root source at the wet market there. As the virus resembles closely that found in bats in the area it is likely that the zoonotic source was from there, although a similar virus was found in bats in mines a few hundred miles away and on a direct train line that links the two places, but without further investigation it’s just guesswork that live bats may have been transported on this line. The infected seem to consist of a lot that are in recovery, official active cases currently 6.7%, but more likely 7.1%, increasing at a rate of 0.2% per day, but does’t seem to push the continuity risk to the average population above around about 2.2% mortality if you contract the disease. Actual numbers are probably about 1.5X the recorded ones for cases, a figure that comes from about 4 billion tests being taken on about 30% of the worlds population, 38 countries now having tested all of their population. Its likely that we are seeing the effects of various mutations in countries rather than a single one. The rate has been pretty consistent since most countries locked down and the effects of this took place since May 2020. There was a lull in figures, but that was probably due to countries finally getting around to working out the statistics, but the numbers are starting to rise in the world again in proportion, so it suggests more potent variants are starting to appear and replace the previous ones we know and are guarding against. The moving average of active and infective cases suggest that the world as a whole under lockdown has an ‘R’ rate of about 1.02, so there is little chance of it being controlled even with current vaccines for at least 10 months, possibly years if the logistics are wrong. At the current trend the numbers will probably double every 27 weeks and keep on reoccurring or inititiating in each country. Given mutations by numbers, it is probable that any country will need to stay in lockdown and isolate for the next couple of years to avoid it. The effects of the Delta variant was expected. Since circumstances have not changed much over the last 12 months the likelihood of somebody in the world catching the disease is therefore now probably around 99% at some time, so all that can probably be done is to manage and delay, so that we are in the best position to weather the infection against the most active variant in the population. Status at the moment 22 months and 4% of the world and counting. There have been at least 25 major variants that have occurred in the first 191 million cases (2.8%) over a period of 22 months, of which 14 are worrying in respect of vaccines and long term immunity. The Variant first identified in India (Delta) is becoming commonplace in the UK, and seems to be replacing the current variant, and new variants first found in Thailand and Vietnam are concerning, the latter possibly a combination of the Indian and Kent variants imported, but being much more infective. None of the variants are particular to any country, just being where they were first identified, and it’s likely that any attempts to prevent a country receiving cases is just political, unless bans on movement is applied to all countries and all travellers. Probably by the time a ban is instituted it has already arrived. The way things are going it’s likely that we will run out of single Greek letters before we run out of variants, so it likely that they will double up on them, such as zeta omega variant. This sounds a pretty severe name, and a good title for a book or film. Current Status: This is a continuation of Coronavirus Risks 8,  Coronavirus Risks 7, Coronavirus Risks 6, a continuation of the original posts, Coronavirus Risks 5, Coronavirus Risks 4, Coronavirus Risks 3, Coronavirus Risks and Coronavirus Risks 2 that were also getting a bit long. Calculation for the incidence of Long Covid works out to about on average 3.7 times the mortality rate for a country. As of today, 10/07/2021, in the world there have been 187.3 million cases with about an estimated 8.3 million active cases, increasing at +1.71% per day, and 4.04 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 5.1 million cases and 128,400 deaths. It has an estimated 460,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 34.7 million cases and 623,100 deaths with about 310,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.8%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.16%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.52%. About 4.4% of known cases are still active in the world, 9% in the UK, 0.9% in the US. It’s likely 3.6% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 11.3% of the UK, and 15.7% of the US. After recalculations, its estimated that about 2 billion people (26%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. Due to new information and sources, past pages calculations probably need to be reduced by 51%. An estimated 46 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 31 weeks ago, 34 million for the second dose, averaging 375,000 doses a day over this period, but about 256,000 a day at the moment. This is a consistently lower level than previous weeks, as have been for weeks previous to that, so either people in the UK are not coming forward for the vaccines, they are becoming limited in supply, or a mixtue of both. It’s now said that 66% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 51% having both doses, 69% in Canada, 31% both, 68% in the UK, 51% both, 55% in the US, 45% both, and 54% in the EU, 43% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 30th January 2022, currently about 95% with 1st dose, 91% with second dose, and all it’s population by 15th October 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 7th July 2023, and a fourth taking the date to 28th March 2024, and a fifth to 19th December 2024. Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.78% for the world and 1.26% for the UK, the current figures being 1.89% for the world and 0.15% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.5% and the current figure is 1.83%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.14-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%. As of 10/07/2020 there have been 222.9 million tests conducted in the UK, about 218.6 million antigen tests and 4.3 million antibody tests, 5.1 million positive of those 111.5 million processed, 4.57%, or 1 in 22 testing positive, 95.43%, 21 out of 22 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 27,000 and 42,000 new cases in the UK a day. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 18.2% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.58% of a population and still increasing. 72 countries have infection rates over 5%. As of today, 13/07/2021, in the world there have been 188.5 million cases with about an estimated 8.3 million active cases, increasing at +1.71% per day, and 4.06 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 5.16 million cases and 128,460 deaths. It has an estimated 487,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 34.8 million cases and 623,400 deaths with about 332,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.82%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.15%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.49%. About 4.4% of known cases are still active in the world, 9.4% in the UK, 0.93% in the US. It’s likely 3.6% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 11.4% of the UK, and 15.8% of the US. After recalculations, its estimated that about 2 billion people (26%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. Due to new information and sources, past pages calculations probably need to be reduced by 51%. An estimated 46.2 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 31 weeks ago, 34.5 million for the second dose, averaging 373,000 doses a day over this period, but about 243,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 66% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 52% having both doses, 70% in Canada, 31% both, 68% in the UK, 53% both, 55% in the US, 46% both, and 54% in the EU, 44% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 13th February 2022, currently about 95% with 1st dose, 92% with second dose, and all it’s population by 11th November 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 17th August 2023, and a fourth taking the date to 23rd May 2024, and a fifth to 26th February 2025. Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.78% for the world and 1.25% for the UK, the current figures being 1.97% for the world and 0.15% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.5% and the current figure is 1.64%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.14-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%. As of 13/07/2020 there have been 226.8 million tests conducted in the UK, about 222.5 million antigen tests and 4.3 million antibody tests, 5.16 million positive of those 112.3 million processed, 4.59%, or 1 in 22 testing positive, 95.41%, 21 out of 22 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 36,000 and 57,000 new cases in the UK a day. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 18.3% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.58% of a population and still increasing. 72 countries have infection rates over 5%. The new case numbers seem to be rising again at about +36% a week in the UK, +23% a week in the US, but mortality is rising by about +19% a week in both the UK and the US, mainly in the unvaccinated, but showing larger than expected rises in the vaccinated, probably due to exposure concentrations and durations. Because of the mixture of unvaccinated, single dose, double dose vaccines, vaccine types and ages, it’s extremely hard to assess the overall effectiveness, but an estimate of 70-80% effectiveness against current variants would probably be in the ballpark, two different types of vaccine administration giving a marginal advantage, a weaker immune system giving a disadvantage for all areas, so a ‘double vaccination’ using different types of vaccine for people in this area would be suggested. Vaccine rollout is slowing in the UK, about 50% of that a month ago, a third of the population having had no vaccine. For the world and EU it’s showing a similar trend, half of the EU and three quarters of the world having had no vaccine. These dangerous combinations of 2/3rds, one third, 50/50 and 25/75 and slowing rollout suggests that the virus may start to develop a resistance to current vaccines over time. There are signs that vaccine resistant variants (VRV’s) are starting to evolve and appear. It’s been a long wait, but on a good note, I may be getting a good improvement in my sight in the next two weeks, so I can start reading again, and updating this site without pain. I hoping that increasing numbers doesn’t get it cancelled. Then all I have to do is get the other eye done.
5th Model with Recalculation for variants
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
14/07/2021 Wednesday 47,876 49
15/07/2021 Thursday 47,881 51
16/07/2021 Friday 52,523 43
17/07/2021 Saturday 47,610 50
18/07/2021 Sunday 46,735 38
19/07/2021 Monday 46,402 8
20/07/2021 Tuesday 49,349 81
21/07/2021 Wednesday 64,447 65
22/07/2021 Thursday 64,453 69
23/07/2021 Friday 70,703 57
24/07/2021 Saturday 64,089 67
25/07/2021 Sunday 62,911 51
26/07/2021 Monday 64,163 11
27/07/2021 Tuesday 68,238 112
28/07/2021 Wednesday 89,115 90
29/07/2021 Thursday 89,123 96
30/07/2021 Friday 97,764 79
31/07/2021 Saturday 88,619 93
01/08/2021 Sunday 86,990 71
02/08/2021 Monday 87,547 15
03/08/2021 Tuesday 93,106 152
04/08/2021 Wednesday 121,592 123
05/08/2021 Thursday 121,603 131
06/08/2021 Friday 133,393 108
07/08/2021 Saturday 120,916 127
08/08/2021 Sunday 118,693 97
As of today, 18/07/2021, in the world there have been 191.3 million cases with about an estimated 9 million active cases, increasing at +1.69% per day, and 4.11 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 5.43 million cases and 128,708 deaths. It has an estimated 600,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 35 million cases and 624,900 deaths with about 460,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.79%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.15%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.37%. About 4.7% of known cases are still active in the world, 11% in the UK, 1.3% in the US. It’s likely 4.2% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 12% of the UK, and 15.9% of the US. It’s estimated that about 2 billion people (26%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 46.4 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 32 weeks ago, 35 million for the second dose, averaging 369,000 doses a day over this period, but about 229,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 66% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 60% having both doses, 70% in Canada, 49% both, 68% in the UK, 53% both, 55.5% in the US, 48% both, and 56% in the EU, 44% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 3rd March 2022, currently about 95% with 1st dose, 93% with second dose, and all it’s population by 16th December 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 9th October 2023, and a fourth taking the date to 31st July 2024, and a fifth to 25th May 2025. Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.78% for the world and 1.23% for the UK, the current figures being 1.9% for the world and 0.13% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.5% and the current figure is 1.69%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.13-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%. As of 18/07/2020 there have been 230.8 million tests conducted in the UK, about 226.5 million antigen tests and 4.3 million antibody tests, 5.43 million positive of those 114.3 million processed, 4.75%, or 1 in 21 testing positive, 95.25%, 20 out of 21 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 34,700 and 54,200 new cases in the UK a day. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 18.4% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.58% of a population and still increasing. 73 countries have infection rates over 5%. If you do an analysis of all the deaths in the UK over the past 80 weeks, the situation that has occurred because of Covid has probably caused about 275,000 deaths in the UK, around 130,000 directly from Covid infections, and around 145,000 as an indirect result of the change in services and social interactions. The lockdowns and restrictions have had quite a reducing effect on the incidence of serious occupational and recreational accidents and misadventures, but have been compensated for by the effect on the health support structures. People rarely get killed just sitting there and doing very little; well, not in the short term. I am still worried by the long term effects of a more sedate lifestyle, but this is probably compensated for by the reduced damage that is done, one balancing the other, but for people who have been severely infected, the effects seen as long term covid suggests that there may be a noticeable degree of genetic damage, or an increased amount of errors occurring in cell repair; higher than normal. This may have a knock on effect on things like cancers, developing 10-20 earlier than normal, which is already taking a hit from reduced early detection because of the situation. World population 7.84 billion, UK population 68.26 million, US population 333 million. As of today, 20/07/2021, in the world there have been 192.1 million cases with about an estimated 9.5 million active cases, increasing at +1.68% per day, and 4.12 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 5.52 million cases and 128,823 deaths. It has an estimated 720,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 35.3 million cases and 625,000 deaths with about 500,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.77%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.14%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.33%. About 4.9% of known cases are still active in the world, 13% in the UK, 1.42% in the US. Recalculated on updated population figures, it’s likely 3.7% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 12.1% of the UK, and 15.9% of the US. It’s estimated that about 2.07 billion people (26.5%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 46.5 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 32 weeks ago, 35.3 million for the second dose, averaging 368,000 doses a day over this period, but about 229,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 66.5% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 61% having both doses, 70.5% in Canada, 51% both, 68.5% in the UK, 53.5% both, 56% in the US, 48.5% both, and 56.5% in the EU, 44% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 6th March 2022, currently about 95% with 1st dose, 93% with second dose, and all it’s population by 19th December 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 12th October 2023, and a fourth taking the date to 4th August 2024, and a fifth to 28th May 2025. Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.78% for the world and 1.23% for the UK, the current figures being 1.5% for the world and 0.12% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.5% and the current figure is 1.72%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%. As of 20/07/2020 there have been 234.8 million tests conducted in the UK, about 230.5 million antigen tests and 4.3 million antibody tests, 5.52 million positive of those 115.3 million processed, 4.79%, or 1 in 21 testing positive, 95.21%, 20 out of 21 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 45,000 and 70,500 new cases in the UK a day. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 18.6% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.58% of a population and still increasing. 73 countries have infection rates over 5%. Mortality in the UK is showing a slight upward trend, but the effects of the current level of new cases won’t show probably for 2 weeks, the current mortality level when there were half the numbers, so the likelihood is probably twice current levels in 2 weeks, maybe hitting 170 in a day at that time. It’s hoped that other social constraints will start to come into play, otherwise force of numbers may cause the level to continually rise, albeit at a slower rate than with previous waves. All areas are showing increased mortality, currently aroundabout may 2021 levels. With vaccines, the estimatd figures for their effectiveness against current variants of Covid, and mortality rates from the vaccines themselves in the UK gives figures as below:
Case Rates New Cases Mortality
Unvaccinated 37.212% 2.1%
1 Dose 43.610% 0.6%
Both Doses 19.178% 0.29%
Blood Clots from Vaccine 0.002% 0.001%
Updated trends for the UK are as below:
5th Model with Recalculation for variants
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
21/07/2021 Wednesday 55,982 65
22/07/2021 Thursday 55,426 65
23/07/2021 Friday 63,991 83
24/07/2021 Saturday 68,644 65
25/07/2021 Sunday 63,736 33
26/07/2021 Monday 53,376 25
27/07/2021 Tuesday 62,205 128
28/07/2021 Wednesday 74,796 87
29/07/2021 Thursday 74,054 87
30/07/2021 Friday 85,497 111
31/07/2021 Saturday 91,714 87
01/08/2021 Sunday 85,156 44
02/08/2021 Monday 70,306 33
03/08/2021 Tuesday 81,935 169
04/08/2021 Wednesday 98,520 114
05/08/2021 Thursday 97,542 114
06/08/2021 Friday 112,615 147
07/08/2021 Saturday 120,804 114
08/08/2021 Sunday 112,165 58
09/08/2021 Monday 93,270 44
10/08/2021 Tuesday 108,698 224
11/08/2021 Wednesday 130,700 151
12/08/2021 Thursday 129,402 151
13/08/2021 Friday 149,398 195
14/08/2021 Saturday 160,262 151
15/08/2021 Sunday 148,802 77
For the US the trends are as below:
5th Model for US with Some Adjustments for variants
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
07/22/2021 Thursday 52,152 560
07/23/2021 Friday 53,134 504
07/24/2021 Saturday 34,593 162
07/25/2021 Sunday 13,666 45
07/26/2021 Monday 51,652 220
07/27/2021 Tuesday 69,440 402
07/28/2021 Wednesday 44,612 671
07/29/2021 Thursday 81,874 880
07/30/2021 Friday 83,416 792
07/31/2021 Saturday 54,308 255
08/01/2021 Sunday 21,454 70
08/02/2021 Monday 79,835 340
08/03/2021 Tuesday 107,329 621
08/04/2021 Wednesday 68,953 1,038
08/05/2021 Thursday 126,547 1,359
08/06/2021 Friday 128,931 1,223
08/07/2021 Saturday 83,940 394
08/08/2021 Sunday 33,160 108
08/09/2021 Monday 124,364 529
08/10/2021 Tuesday 167,195 968
08/11/2021 Wednesday 107,414 1,617
08/12/2021 Thursday 197,131 2,118
08/13/2021 Friday 200,845 1,906
08/14/2021 Saturday 130,760 614
08/15/2021 Sunday 51,656 168
The are a lot of variants around, the list of 25 variants below being ones of particular interest, and have occurred within a period of 22 months and an estimated 290 million cases (3.7% of the population of the world). If it is likely to go through the rest of the world then a first pass may take 20 years and produce 500 major variants during this time.
Main Variants of Interest and Concern
First identified Scientific Name VUI/VOC UK identified cases Mortality Spread Capability
China SARS-CoV-2 1
B1
UK B.1.1.7 Alpha 250,000 1.9% 1
South Africa B.1.351 Beta 900 1.5% 1
Brazil P.1 / B.1.1.28 Gamma 145 2.0% 1
Brazil P.2 / B.1.1.28 Zeta 60 1.9% 1.1
UK B.1.525 Eta 460 2.8%
B.1.526
Philippines P.3 Theta 10 2.1% 1
UK B.1.617 Kappa 420 2.3%
India B.1.617.2 Delta 600,000 2.1% 1.2
UK B.1.617.3 15
B.1.620
B.1.621
UK C.37 Lambda 6 2.1% 1.1
UK A.23.1 80
A.27
UK B.1.1.318 225
UK B.1.324.1
B.1.214.2
R1
AV.1 50
AT1
C.36.3
B.1.427 / B.1.429 Epsilon
The first column is where all VUI or VOC’s were first
identified but not necessarily starting from, except for China
The case rates are for specifically identified, not actual numbers
I’ve decided to try and refine the model further to take into account the Delta Variant. If it shows a larger error level I will revert to the previous model. The new figuresfor the UK using this method are below
6th UK Model with Recalculation for Delta
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
26/07/2021 Monday 45,264 22
27/07/2021 Tuesday 52,751 131
28/07/2021 Wednesday 49,748 93
29/07/2021 Thursday 45,214 97
30/07/2021 Friday 44,937 100
31/07/2021 Saturday 36,025 90
01/08/2021 Sunday 33,054 36
02/08/2021 Monday 45,834 26
03/08/2021 Tuesday 53,416 158
04/08/2021 Wednesday 50,374 103
05/08/2021 Thursday 45,784 105
06/08/2021 Friday 45,503 101
07/08/2021 Saturday 36,478 86
08/08/2021 Sunday 33,470 33
09/08/2021 Monday 49,172 30
10/08/2021 Tuesday 57,305 185
11/08/2021 Wednesday 54,042 116
12/08/2021 Thursday 49,117 117
13/08/2021 Friday 48,816 111
14/08/2021 Saturday 39,134 90
15/08/2021 Sunday 35,907 35
16/08/2021 Monday 51,271 32
17/08/2021 Tuesday 59,752 199
18/08/2021 Wednesday 56,350 127
19/08/2021 Thursday 51,215 128
20/08/2021 Friday 50,900 121
21/08/2021 Saturday 40,805 100
22/08/2021 Sunday 37,440 38
At the moment the trends are unsure as to if they are reducing or not. There have been 3 days of increase and 4 days of decrease compared to the previous week. This could be an anomaly of recording either way. The next 2 weeks should give some indication one way or the other. Deaths are likely to be between 26-131 per day for the next week as the mortality lags 12-14 days behind the cases, depending on recording consistency. See my other documents for an indication of the daily progression of a Covid case to explain this. Records around the world seem to lack the necessity of consistency in recording, adjusting figures to reflect theoretical viewpoints. This has led to statistical problems where cases decrease or increase suddenly, and people coming back to life in some countries. It’s bit like trying to assess a cars performace when somebody is constantly changing the formula of the fuel, and adding and removing components. If there is a consistent error at least you can try to compensate for it. If the type of error is changing things get exteremly complicated, if calculatable at all with a constantly changing baseline. As of today, 25/07/2021, in the world there have been 194.9 million cases with about an estimated 9.9 million active cases, increasing at +1.67% per day, and 4.18 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 5.7 million cases and 129,158 deaths. It has an estimated 740,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 35.2 million cases and 626,730 deaths with about 750,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.78%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.14%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.27%. About 5.1% of known cases are still active in the world, 13% in the UK, 2.13% in the US. It’s likely 3.7% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 12.1% of the UK, and 15.9% of the US. It’s estimated that about 2.12 billion people (27.1%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 46.5 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 33 weeks ago, 35.3 million for the second dose, averaging 365,000 doses a day over this period, but about 208,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 66.5% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 61.2% having both doses, 71% in Canada, 55% both, 69% in the UK, 54.5% both, 56.5% in the US, 49% both, and 57.5% in the EU, 46% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 3rd April 2022, currently about 95% with 1st dose, 94% with second dose, and all it’s population by 14th February 2023. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 6th January 2024, and a fourth taking the date to 28th November 2024, and a fifth to 20th October 2025. Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.78% for the world and 1.21% for the UK, the current figures being 1.5% for the world and 0.16% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.5% and the current figure is 1.13%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%. As of 25/07/2020 there have been 241.1 million tests conducted in the UK, about 236.7 million antigen tests and 4.4 million antibody tests, 5.7 million positive of those 118.2 million processed, 4.82%, or 1 in 21 testing positive, 95.18%, 20 out of 21 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 31,000 and 48,000 new cases in the UK a day. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 18.7% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.59% of a population and still increasing. 73 countries have infection rates over 5%. For the US:
5th Model for US with Some Adjustments for variants
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
07/28/2021 Tuesday 81,807 461
07/29/2021 Wednesday 101,421 733
07/30/2021 Thursday 106,087 628
07/31/2021 Friday 116,126 736
08/01/2021 Saturday 63,288 208
08/02/2021 Sunday 23,778 84
08/03/2021 Monday 63,121 233
08/04/2021 Tuesday 144,173 813
08/05/2021 Wednesday 178,739 1,292
08/06/2021 Thursday 186,964 1,107
08/07/2021 Friday 204,656 1,298
08/08/2021 Saturday 111,536 367
08/09/2021 Sunday 41,905 149
08/10/2021 Monday 109,325 403
08/11/2021 Tuesday 249,708 1,408
08/12/2021 Wednesday 309,576 2,238
08/13/2021 Thursday 323,820 1,917
08/14/2021 Friday 354,463 2,248
08/15/2021 Saturday 193,181 636
08/16/2021 Sunday 72,579 257
08/17/2021 Monday 191,009 704
08/18/2021 Tuesday 436,284 2,459
08/19/2021 Wednesday 540,884 3,909
08/20/2021 Thursday 565,772 3,350
08/21/2021 Friday 619,310 3,928
08/22/2021 Saturday 337,521 1,110
08/23/2021 Sunday 126,808 450
As of today, 28/07/2021, in the world there have been 196.5 million cases with about an estimated 10 million active cases, increasing at +1.66% per day, and 4.2 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 5.8 million cases and 129,400 deaths. It has an estimated 730,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 35.4 million cases and 627,700 deaths with about 705,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.77%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.14%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.23%. About 5.1% of known cases are still active in the world, 12.6% in the UK, 2% in the US. It’s likely 3.8% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 12.7% of the UK, and 15.9% of the US. It’s estimated that about 2.15 billion people (27.5%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 46.5 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 33 weeks ago, 35.5 million for the second dose, averaging 363,000 doses a day over this period, but about 215,700 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 66.5% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 62% having both doses, 71.5% in Canada, 57% both, 69% in the UK, 55% both, 57% in the US, 49.5% both, and 58% in the EU, 46.5% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 28th March 2022, currently about 95% with 1st dose, 94% with second dose, and all it’s population by 28th January 2023. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 9th December 2023, and a fourth taking the date to 19th October 2024, and a fifth to 31st August 2025. Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.78% for the world and 1.2% for the UK, the current figures being 1.92% for the world and 0.18% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.5% and the current figure is 1.3%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%. As of 28/07/2020 there have been 243.1 million tests conducted in the UK, about 238.7 million antigen tests and 4.4 million antibody tests, 5.8 million positive of those 119.5 million processed, 4.85%, or 1 in 21 testing positive, 95.15%, 20 out of 21 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 30,000 and 46,000 new cases in the UK a day. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 18.9% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.59% of a population and still increasing. 74 countries have infection rates over 5%, 19 countries have infection rates over 10%. The figures for the UK have fallen on the previous weeks on 6 occasions so far, the trend now showing a mild decrease, so there is hope that the numbers will continue to fall at least for the moment. Lockdown and a lot of restrictions ended on the 19th July, 9 days ago, so it is likely that they will stay at current figures or start to increase for a while. It takes time for the infection system to get started again, especially in areas of initially small figures. There are claims that the epidemic will probably be over, at least for the UK by about october, but this is probably being extremely optimistic at best, viewing that the fat lady has started warming up her voice, when it’s likely she is still in bed at home and waiting for a booking. After 22 months and 25 variants, 10 of concern, 2 widespread and hit the UK, about 4% of the worlds population have been infected. The view that the world or the UK is nearing herd immunity and there are a large proportion of unknown cases doesn’t seem to gel with the testing in the world, and some restricting countries showing 19% infection levels, and still increasing by day. So the likelihood is ‘nowhere near.’ The fact that more people are being infected after double doses of the vaccine in the UK means that those who have not had a vaccine at all are fully at risk, and there is a risk, albeit reduced to 10% of previously, to even those who have had both doses. In the UK for the moment we have probably reduced it to a serious seasonal flu epidemic level. We will probably see the results of the disproportionate response over the next few years and the long term effects in 20. At a restricted rate, and outbreaks continually occurring in each country around the world I would expect Covid to last for at least about another 10 years. During that time we would probably have another 200 variants with about 100 of concern, possibly 10 running around the UK, requiring fast updating of vaccines, 1 or 2 hitting the young and healthy aswell. The view that we are at the beginning of the end is probably not realistic, more that we are at the end of the beginning, so forward planning should reflect this rather than catering and planning for an unlikely situation and just hoping for the best. As of today, 30/07/2021, in the world there have been 198 million cases with about an estimated 11 million active cases, increasing at +1.66% per day, and 4.22 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 5.83 million cases and 129,600 deaths. It has an estimated 715,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 35.7 million cases and 628,900 deaths with about 950,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.76%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.13%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.22%. About 5.6% of known cases are still active in the world, 12.3% in the UK, 2.7% in the US. It’s likely 3.8% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 12.8% of the UK, and 16% of the US. It’s estimated that about 2.18 billion people (28%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 46.5 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 33 weeks ago, 35.5 million for the second dose, averaging 361,000 doses a day over this period, but about 212,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 71.5% in Canada have had one dose of a vaccine, 57.5% both, 69% in the UK, 55.5% both, 57% in the US, 50% both, and 58.5% in the EU, 48% both. Most of the vulnerable people in the UK have had both doses of a vaccine. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s population by 9th February 2023. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 26th December 2023, and a fourth taking the date to 11th November 2024, and a fifth to 28th September 2025. Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.78% for the world and 1.2% for the UK, the current figures being 1.85% for the world and 0.17% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.5% and the current figure is 0.95%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%. As of 30/07/2020 there have been 245.1 million tests conducted in the UK, about 240.7 million antigen tests and 4.4 million antibody tests, 5.83 million positive of those 120 million processed, 4.86%, or 1 in 21 testing positive, 95.14%, 20 out of 21 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 25,500 and 40,000 new cases in the UK a day. Highest infection rates for a country is currently 18.9% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.59% of a population and still increasing. 76 countries have infection rates over 5%, 20 countries have infection rates over 10%. Vaccination and overall testing rates continue to fall in the UK, averaging a fall of about 95% week on week, with vaccinations at a level when they first really started in January. Is it unwillingness to have them, a reduction in provision, or a lack of supply? Even with the vaccine complications of compromised immune systems, the risks of not having vaccines is two orders above that of the risks of having them. Testing in the UK seems to be going a bit strange, with what seems to be reticence in reporting cases. Maybe it’s due to not willing to endure further lockdowns, but it has a knock on effect of altering the view of what is actually happening. Actual cases not being reported unless serious, skewing the figures. If the mortality figure doesn’t fall next week then it’s likely the case rate is in fact higher than reported, so a 10% additional factor will need to be included, with actual cases being about 60% higher than officially reported, rather than about 50%.

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