Coronavirus Risks 9 (SARS-CoV-2)

I’ve been following the virus for 87 weeks now now. Originally I thought
that it would be very limited, but that changed about 85 weeks ago, when the numbers began to rise and we found out more about it.

A rough estimate is that the outbreak started out around october 2019 in the vicinity of Wuhan, China. Most cases seem to have a root source at the wet market there. As the virus resembles closely that found in bats in the area it is likely that the zoonotic source was from there, although a similar virus was found in bats in mines a few hundred miles away and on a direct train line that links the two places, but without further investigation it’s just guesswork that live bats may have been transported on this line. Similarly, there has been speculation that it escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, but as this is a level 4 facility it would be highly unlikely from within it, there being over 100 throughout the world, a few in populated areas in the UK. There is a possibility that it could be peripheral transport to the facility, or through an infected member of staff who collected specimens and brought it back, but this is a thing that is more likely to happen to people just capturing specimens for sale, which is the likeliest scenario.

The infected seem to consist of a lot that are in recovery, official active cases currently 8.4%, but more likely 6%, increasing at a rate of 0.2% per day, but does’t seem to push the continuity risk to the average population above around about 2.2% mortality if you contract the disease. Actual numbers are probably about 1.5X the recorded ones for cases, a figure that comes from about 5 billion tests being taken on about 33% of the worlds population, 41 countries now having tested all of their population. Its likely that we are seeing the effects of various mutations in countries rather than a single one. The rate has been pretty consistent since most countries locked down and the effects of this took place since May 2020. There was a lull in figures, but that was probably due to countries finally getting around to working out the statistics, but the numbers are starting to rise in the world again in proportion, so it suggests more potent variants are starting to appear and replace the previous ones we know and are guarding against.

The moving average of active and infective cases suggest that the world as a whole under lockdown has an ‘R’ rate of about 1.04, so there is little chance of it being controlled even with current vaccines for at least 12 months, possibly years if the logistics are wrong. At the current trend the numbers will probably double every 28 weeks and keep on reoccurring or inititiating in each country. Given mutations by numbers, it is probable that any country will need to stay in lockdown and isolate for the next couple of years to avoid it. The effects of the Delta variant was expected. Since circumstances have not changed much over the last 12 months the likelihood of somebody in the world catching the disease is therefore now probably around 99% at some time, so all that can probably be done is to manage and delay, so that we are in the best position to weather the infection against the most active variant in the population. Status at the moment: 22 months and 4.1% of the world and counting.

There have been at least 26 major variants that have occurred in the first 212 million cases (2.8%) over a period of 22 months, of which 15 are worrying in respect of vaccines and long term immunity. The Variant first identified in India (Delta) is becoming commonplace in the UK, and seems to be replacing the current variant, and new variants first found in Thailand and Vietnam are concerning, the latter possibly a combination of the Indian and Kent variants imported, but being much more infective. The beta variant seems to be spreading faster than it had before, being less susceptible to vaccines, as found in South Africa. None of the variants are particular to any country, just being where they were first identified, and it’s likely that any attempts to prevent a country receiving cases is just political, unless bans on movement is applied to all countries and all travellers. Probably by the time a ban is instituted it has already arrived. The way things are going it’s likely that we will run out of single Greek letters before we run out of variants, so it likely that they will double up on them, such as zeta omega variant. This sounds a pretty severe name, and a good title for a book or film.

Current Status:

This is a continuation of Coronavirus Risks 8,  Coronavirus Risks 7, Coronavirus Risks 6, a continuation of the original posts, Coronavirus Risks 5, Coronavirus Risks 4, Coronavirus Risks 3, Coronavirus Risks and Coronavirus Risks 2 that were also getting a bit long.

Calculation for the incidence of Long Covid works out to about on average 3.7 times the mortality rate for a country.

As of today, 10/07/2021, in the world there have been 187.3 million cases
with about an estimated 8.3 million active cases, increasing at +1.71% per day, and 4.04 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 5.1 million cases and 128,400 deaths. It has an estimated 460,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 34.7 million cases and 623,100 deaths with about 310,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.8%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.16%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.52%. About 4.4% of known cases are still active in the world, 9% in the UK, 0.9% in the US.

It’s likely 3.6% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 11.3%
of the UK, and 15.7% of the US.

After recalculations, its estimated that about 2 billion people (26%) have
had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. Due to new information and
sources, past pages calculations probably need to be reduced by 51%. An
estimated 46 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 31 weeks ago, 34 million for the second dose, averaging 375,000 doses a day over this period, but about 256,000 a day at the moment. This is a consistently lower level than previous weeks, as have been for weeks previous to that, so either people in the UK are not coming forward for the vaccines, they are becoming limited in supply, or a mixtue of both. It’s now said that 66% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 51% having both doses, 69% in Canada, 31% both, 68% in the UK, 51% both, 55% in the US, 45% both, and 54% in the EU, 43% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 30th January 2022, currently about 95% with 1st dose, 91% with second dose, and all it’s population by 15th October 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 7th July 2023, and a fourth taking the date to 28th March 2024, and a fifth to 19th December 2024.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.78% for the world and
1.26% for the UK, the current figures being 1.89% for the world and 0.15% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.5% and the
current figure is 1.83%. The range for the world based on this figure is
1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.14-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 10/07/2020 there have been 222.9 million tests conducted in the UK,
about 218.6 million antigen tests and 4.3 million antibody tests, 5.1 million
positive of those 111.5 million processed, 4.57%, or 1 in 22 testing positive,
95.43%, 21 out of 22 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a
figure between 27,000 and 42,000 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 18.2% and still showing
standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.58% of a population and
still increasing. 72 countries have infection rates over 5%.

As of today, 13/07/2021, in the world there have been 188.5 million cases
with about an estimated 8.3 million active cases, increasing at +1.71% per day, and 4.06 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 5.16 million cases and 128,460 deaths. It has an estimated 487,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 34.8 million cases and 623,400 deaths with about 332,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.82%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.15%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.49%. About 4.4% of known cases are still active in the world, 9.4% in the UK, 0.93% in the US.

It’s likely 3.6% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 11.4%
of the UK, and 15.8% of the US.

After recalculations, its estimated that about 2 billion people (26%) have
had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. Due to new information and
sources, past pages calculations probably need to be reduced by 51%. An
estimated 46.2 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 31 weeks ago, 34.5 million for the second dose, averaging 373,000 doses a day over this period, but about 243,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 66% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 52% having both doses, 70% in Canada, 31% both, 68% in the UK, 53% both, 55% in the US, 46% both, and 54% in the EU, 44% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 13th February 2022, currently about 95% with 1st dose, 92% with second dose, and all it’s population by 11th November 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 17th August 2023, and a fourth taking the date to 23rd May 2024, and a fifth to 26th February 2025.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.78% for the world and
1.25% for the UK, the current figures being 1.97% for the world and 0.15% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.5% and the
current figure is 1.64%. The range for the world based on this figure is
1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.14-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 13/07/2020 there have been 226.8 million tests conducted in the UK,
about 222.5 million antigen tests and 4.3 million antibody tests, 5.16 million
positive of those 112.3 million processed, 4.59%, or 1 in 22 testing positive,
95.41%, 21 out of 22 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a
figure between 36,000 and 57,000 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 18.3% and still showing
standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.58% of a population and
still increasing. 72 countries have infection rates over 5%.

The new case numbers seem to be rising again at about +36% a week in the UK, +23% a week in the US, but mortality is rising by about +19% a week in both the UK and the US, mainly in the unvaccinated, but showing larger than expected rises in the vaccinated, probably due to exposure concentrations and durations. Because of the mixture of unvaccinated, single dose, double dose vaccines, vaccine types and ages, it’s extremely hard to assess the overall effectiveness, but an estimate of 70-80% effectiveness against current variants would probably be in the ballpark, two different types of vaccine administration giving a marginal advantage, a weaker immune system giving a disadvantage for all areas, so a ‘double vaccination’ using different types of vaccine for people in this area would be suggested.

Vaccine rollout is slowing in the UK, about 50% of that a month ago, a third of the population having had no vaccine. For the world and EU it’s showing a similar trend, half of the EU and three quarters of the world having had no vaccine. These dangerous combinations of 2/3rds, one third, 50/50 and 25/75 and slowing rollout suggests that the virus may start to develop a resistance to current vaccines over time. There are signs that vaccine resistant variants (VRV’s) are starting to evolve and appear.

It’s been a long wait, but on a good note, I may be getting a good improvement in my sight in the next two weeks, so I can start reading again, and updating this site without pain. I hoping that increasing numbers doesn’t get it cancelled. Then all I have to do is get the other eye done.

5th Model with Recalculation for variants
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
14/07/2021 Wednesday 47,876 49
15/07/2021 Thursday 47,881 51
16/07/2021 Friday 52,523 43
17/07/2021 Saturday 47,610 50
18/07/2021 Sunday 46,735 38
19/07/2021 Monday 46,402 8
20/07/2021 Tuesday 49,349 81
21/07/2021 Wednesday 64,447 65
22/07/2021 Thursday 64,453 69
23/07/2021 Friday 70,703 57
24/07/2021 Saturday 64,089 67
25/07/2021 Sunday 62,911 51
26/07/2021 Monday 64,163 11
27/07/2021 Tuesday 68,238 112
28/07/2021 Wednesday 89,115 90
29/07/2021 Thursday 89,123 96
30/07/2021 Friday 97,764 79
31/07/2021 Saturday 88,619 93
01/08/2021 Sunday 86,990 71
02/08/2021 Monday 87,547 15
03/08/2021 Tuesday 93,106 152
04/08/2021 Wednesday 121,592 123
05/08/2021 Thursday 121,603 131
06/08/2021 Friday 133,393 108
07/08/2021 Saturday 120,916 127
08/08/2021 Sunday 118,693 97

As of today, 18/07/2021, in the world there have been 191.3 million cases
with about an estimated 9 million active cases, increasing at +1.69% per day, and 4.11 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 5.43 million cases and 128,708 deaths. It has an estimated 600,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 35 million cases and 624,900 deaths with about 460,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.79%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.15%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.37%. About 4.7% of known cases are still active in the world, 11% in the UK, 1.3% in the US.

It’s likely 4.2% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 12%
of the UK, and 15.9% of the US.

It’s estimated that about 2 billion people (26%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 46.4 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 32 weeks ago, 35 million for the second dose, averaging 369,000 doses a day over this period, but about 229,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 66% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 60% having both doses, 70% in Canada, 49% both, 68% in the UK, 53% both, 55.5% in the US, 48% both, and 56% in the EU, 44% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 3rd March 2022, currently about 95% with 1st dose, 93% with second dose, and all it’s population by 16th December 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 9th October 2023, and a fourth taking the date to 31st July 2024, and a fifth to 25th May 2025.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.78% for the world and
1.23% for the UK, the current figures being 1.9% for the world and 0.13% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.5% and the
current figure is 1.69%. The range for the world based on this figure is
1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.13-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 18/07/2020 there have been 230.8 million tests conducted in the UK,
about 226.5 million antigen tests and 4.3 million antibody tests, 5.43 million
positive of those 114.3 million processed, 4.75%, or 1 in 21 testing positive,
95.25%, 20 out of 21 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a
figure between 34,700 and 54,200 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 18.4% and still showing
standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.58% of a population and
still increasing. 73 countries have infection rates over 5%.

If you do an analysis of all the deaths in the UK over the past 80 weeks, the situation that has occurred because of Covid has probably caused about 275,000 deaths in the UK, around 130,000 directly from Covid infections, and around 145,000 as an indirect result of the change in services and social interactions. The lockdowns and restrictions have had quite a reducing effect on the incidence of serious occupational and recreational accidents and misadventures, but have been compensated for by the effect on the health support structures. People rarely get killed just sitting there and doing very little; well, not in the short term. I am still worried by the long term effects of a more sedate lifestyle, but this is probably compensated for by the reduced damage that is done, one balancing the other, but for people who have been severely infected, the effects seen as long term covid suggests that there may be a noticeable degree of genetic damage, or an increased amount of errors occurring in cell repair; higher than normal. This may have a knock on effect on things like cancers, developing 10-20 earlier than normal, which is already taking a hit from reduced early detection because of the situation.

World population 7.84 billion, UK population 68.26 million, US population 333 million.

As of today, 20/07/2021, in the world there have been 192.1 million cases
with about an estimated 9.5 million active cases, increasing at +1.68% per day, and 4.12 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 5.52 million cases and 128,823 deaths. It has an estimated 720,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 35.3 million cases and 625,000 deaths with about 500,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.77%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.14%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.33%. About 4.9% of known cases are still active in the world, 13% in the UK, 1.42% in the US.

Recalculated on updated population figures, it’s likely 3.7% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 12.1% of the UK, and 15.9% of the US.

It’s estimated that about 2.07 billion people (26.5%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 46.5 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 32 weeks ago, 35.3 million for the second dose, averaging 368,000 doses a day over this period, but about 229,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 66.5% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 61% having both doses, 70.5% in Canada, 51% both, 68.5% in the UK, 53.5% both, 56% in the US, 48.5% both, and 56.5% in the EU, 44% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 6th March 2022, currently about 95% with 1st dose, 93% with second dose, and all it’s population by 19th December 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 12th October 2023, and a fourth taking the date to 4th August 2024, and a fifth to 28th May 2025.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.78% for the world and
1.23% for the UK, the current figures being 1.5% for the world and 0.12% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.5% and the
current figure is 1.72%. The range for the world based on this figure is
1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 20/07/2020 there have been 234.8 million tests conducted in the UK,
about 230.5 million antigen tests and 4.3 million antibody tests, 5.52 million
positive of those 115.3 million processed, 4.79%, or 1 in 21 testing positive,
95.21%, 20 out of 21 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a
figure between 45,000 and 70,500 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 18.6% and still showing
standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.58% of a population and
still increasing. 73 countries have infection rates over 5%.

Mortality in the UK is showing a slight upward trend, but the effects of the current level of new cases won’t show probably for 2 weeks, the current mortality level when there were half the numbers, so the likelihood is probably twice current levels in 2 weeks, maybe hitting 170 in a day at that time. It’s hoped that other social constraints will start to come into play, otherwise force of numbers may cause the level to continually rise, albeit at a slower rate than with previous waves.

All areas are showing increased mortality, currently aroundabout may 2021 levels.

With vaccines, the estimatd figures for their effectiveness against current variants of Covid, and mortality rates from the vaccines themselves in the UK gives figures as below:

Case Rates New Cases Mortality
Unvaccinated 37.212% 2.1%
1 Dose 43.610% 0.6%
Both Doses 19.178% 0.29%
Blood Clots from Vaccine 0.002% 0.001%

Updated trends for the UK are as below:

5th Model with Recalculation for variants
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
21/07/2021 Wednesday 55,982 65
22/07/2021 Thursday 55,426 65
23/07/2021 Friday 63,991 83
24/07/2021 Saturday 68,644 65
25/07/2021 Sunday 63,736 33
26/07/2021 Monday 53,376 25
27/07/2021 Tuesday 62,205 128
28/07/2021 Wednesday 74,796 87
29/07/2021 Thursday 74,054 87
30/07/2021 Friday 85,497 111
31/07/2021 Saturday 91,714 87
01/08/2021 Sunday 85,156 44
02/08/2021 Monday 70,306 33
03/08/2021 Tuesday 81,935 169
04/08/2021 Wednesday 98,520 114
05/08/2021 Thursday 97,542 114
06/08/2021 Friday 112,615 147
07/08/2021 Saturday 120,804 114
08/08/2021 Sunday 112,165 58
09/08/2021 Monday 93,270 44
10/08/2021 Tuesday 108,698 224
11/08/2021 Wednesday 130,700 151
12/08/2021 Thursday 129,402 151
13/08/2021 Friday 149,398 195
14/08/2021 Saturday 160,262 151
15/08/2021 Sunday 148,802 77

For the US the trends are as below:

5th Model for US with Some Adjustments for variants
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
07/22/2021 Thursday 52,152 560
07/23/2021 Friday 53,134 504
07/24/2021 Saturday 34,593 162
07/25/2021 Sunday 13,666 45
07/26/2021 Monday 51,652 220
07/27/2021 Tuesday 69,440 402
07/28/2021 Wednesday 44,612 671
07/29/2021 Thursday 81,874 880
07/30/2021 Friday 83,416 792
07/31/2021 Saturday 54,308 255
08/01/2021 Sunday 21,454 70
08/02/2021 Monday 79,835 340
08/03/2021 Tuesday 107,329 621
08/04/2021 Wednesday 68,953 1,038
08/05/2021 Thursday 126,547 1,359
08/06/2021 Friday 128,931 1,223
08/07/2021 Saturday 83,940 394
08/08/2021 Sunday 33,160 108
08/09/2021 Monday 124,364 529
08/10/2021 Tuesday 167,195 968
08/11/2021 Wednesday 107,414 1,617
08/12/2021 Thursday 197,131 2,118
08/13/2021 Friday 200,845 1,906
08/14/2021 Saturday 130,760 614
08/15/2021 Sunday 51,656 168

The are a lot of variants around, the list of 25 variants below being ones of particular interest, and have occurred within a period of 22 months and an estimated 290 million cases (3.7% of the population of the world). If it is likely to go through the rest of the world then a first pass may take 20 years and produce 500 major variants during this time.

Main Variants of Interest and Concern      
           
First identified Scientific Name VUI/VOC UK identified cases Mortality Spread Capability
China   SARS-CoV-2     1
  B1        
UK B.1.1.7 Alpha 250,000 1.9% 1
South Africa B.1.351 Beta 900 1.5% 1
Brazil P.1 / B.1.1.28 Gamma 145 2.0% 1
Brazil P.2 / B.1.1.28 Zeta 60 1.9% 1.1
UK B.1.525 Eta 460 2.8%  
  B.1.526        
Philippines P.3 Theta 10 2.1% 1
UK B.1.617 Kappa 420 2.3%  
India B.1.617.2 Delta 600,000 2.1% 1.2
UK B.1.617.3   15    
  B.1.620        
  B.1.621        
UK C.37 Lambda 6 2.1% 1.1
UK A.23.1   80    
  A.27        
UK B.1.1.318   225    
UK B.1.324.1        
  B.1.214.2        
  R1        
  AV.1   50    
  AT1        
  C.36.3        
  B.1.427 / B.1.429 Epsilon      
Colombia B.1.621 Mu      
The first column is where all VUI or VOC’s were first    
identified but not necessarily starting from, except for China    
The case rates are for specifically identified, not actual numbers    

I’ve decided to try and refine the model further to take into account the Delta Variant. If it shows a larger error level I will revert to the previous model. The new figuresfor the UK using this method are below

6th UK Model with Recalculation for Delta
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
26/07/2021 Monday 45,264 22
27/07/2021 Tuesday 52,751 131
28/07/2021 Wednesday 49,748 93
29/07/2021 Thursday 45,214 97
30/07/2021 Friday 44,937 100
31/07/2021 Saturday 36,025 90
01/08/2021 Sunday 33,054 36
02/08/2021 Monday 45,834 26
03/08/2021 Tuesday 53,416 158
04/08/2021 Wednesday 50,374 103
05/08/2021 Thursday 45,784 105
06/08/2021 Friday 45,503 101
07/08/2021 Saturday 36,478 86
08/08/2021 Sunday 33,470 33
09/08/2021 Monday 49,172 30
10/08/2021 Tuesday 57,305 185
11/08/2021 Wednesday 54,042 116
12/08/2021 Thursday 49,117 117
13/08/2021 Friday 48,816 111
14/08/2021 Saturday 39,134 90
15/08/2021 Sunday 35,907 35
16/08/2021 Monday 51,271 32
17/08/2021 Tuesday 59,752 199
18/08/2021 Wednesday 56,350 127
19/08/2021 Thursday 51,215 128
20/08/2021 Friday 50,900 121
21/08/2021 Saturday 40,805 100
22/08/2021 Sunday 37,440 38

At the moment the trends are unsure as to if they are reducing or not. There have been 3 days of increase and 4 days of decrease compared to the previous week. This could be an anomaly of recording either way. The next 2 weeks should give some indication one way or the other. Deaths are likely to be between 26-131 per day for the next week as the mortality lags 12-14 days behind the cases, depending on recording consistency. See my other documents for an indication of the daily progression of a Covid case to explain this.

Records around the world seem to lack the necessity of consistency in recording, adjusting figures to reflect theoretical viewpoints. This has led to statistical problems where cases decrease or increase suddenly, and people coming back to life in some countries. It’s bit like trying to assess a cars performace when somebody is constantly changing the formula of the fuel, and adding and removing components. If there is a consistent error at least you can try to compensate for it. If the type of error is changing things get exteremly complicated, if calculatable at all with a constantly changing baseline.

As of today, 25/07/2021, in the world there have been 194.9 million cases
with about an estimated 9.9 million active cases, increasing at +1.67% per day, and 4.18 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 5.7 million cases and 129,158 deaths. It has an estimated 740,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 35.2 million cases and 626,730 deaths with about 750,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.78%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.14%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.27%. About 5.1% of known cases are still active in the world, 13% in the UK, 2.13% in the US.

It’s likely 3.7% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 12.1% of the UK, and 15.9% of the US.

It’s estimated that about 2.12 billion people (27.1%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 46.5 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 33 weeks ago, 35.3 million for the second dose, averaging 365,000 doses a day over this period, but about 208,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 66.5% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 61.2% having both doses, 71% in Canada, 55% both, 69% in the UK, 54.5% both, 56.5% in the US, 49% both, and 57.5% in the EU, 46% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 3rd April 2022, currently about 95% with 1st dose, 94% with second dose, and all it’s population by 14th February 2023. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 6th January 2024, and a fourth taking the date to 28th November 2024, and a fifth to 20th October 2025.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.78% for the world and
1.21% for the UK, the current figures being 1.5% for the world and 0.16% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.5% and the
current figure is 1.13%. The range for the world based on this figure is
1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 25/07/2020 there have been 241.1 million tests conducted in the UK,
about 236.7 million antigen tests and 4.4 million antibody tests, 5.7 million
positive of those 118.2 million processed, 4.82%, or 1 in 21 testing positive,
95.18%, 20 out of 21 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a
figure between 31,000 and 48,000 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 18.7% and still showing
standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.59% of a population and
still increasing. 73 countries have infection rates over 5%.

For the US:

5th Model for US with Some Adjustments for variants
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
07/28/2021 Tuesday 81,807 461
07/29/2021 Wednesday 101,421 733
07/30/2021 Thursday 106,087 628
07/31/2021 Friday 116,126 736
08/01/2021 Saturday 63,288 208
08/02/2021 Sunday 23,778 84
08/03/2021 Monday 63,121 233
08/04/2021 Tuesday 144,173 813
08/05/2021 Wednesday 178,739 1,292
08/06/2021 Thursday 186,964 1,107
08/07/2021 Friday 204,656 1,298
08/08/2021 Saturday 111,536 367
08/09/2021 Sunday 41,905 149
08/10/2021 Monday 109,325 403
08/11/2021 Tuesday 249,708 1,408
08/12/2021 Wednesday 309,576 2,238
08/13/2021 Thursday 323,820 1,917
08/14/2021 Friday 354,463 2,248
08/15/2021 Saturday 193,181 636
08/16/2021 Sunday 72,579 257
08/17/2021 Monday 191,009 704
08/18/2021 Tuesday 436,284 2,459
08/19/2021 Wednesday 540,884 3,909
08/20/2021 Thursday 565,772 3,350
08/21/2021 Friday 619,310 3,928
08/22/2021 Saturday 337,521 1,110
08/23/2021 Sunday 126,808 450

As of today, 28/07/2021, in the world there have been 196.5 million cases
with about an estimated 10 million active cases, increasing at +1.66% per day, and 4.2 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 5.8 million cases and 129,400 deaths. It has an estimated 730,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 35.4 million cases and 627,700 deaths with about 705,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.77%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.14%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.23%. About 5.1% of known cases are still active in the world, 12.6% in the UK, 2% in the US.

It’s likely 3.8% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 12.7% of the UK, and 15.9% of the US.

It’s estimated that about 2.15 billion people (27.5%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 46.5 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 33 weeks ago, 35.5 million for the second dose, averaging 363,000 doses a day over this period, but about 215,700 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 66.5% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 62% having both doses, 71.5% in Canada, 57% both, 69% in the UK, 55% both, 57% in the US, 49.5% both, and 58% in the EU, 46.5% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 28th March 2022, currently about 95% with 1st dose, 94% with second dose, and all it’s population by 28th January 2023. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 9th December 2023, and a fourth taking the date to 19th October 2024, and a fifth to 31st August 2025.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.78% for the world and
1.2% for the UK, the current figures being 1.92% for the world and 0.18% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.5% and the
current figure is 1.3%. The range for the world based on this figure is
1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 28/07/2020 there have been 243.1 million tests conducted in the UK,
about 238.7 million antigen tests and 4.4 million antibody tests, 5.8 million
positive of those 119.5 million processed, 4.85%, or 1 in 21 testing positive,
95.15%, 20 out of 21 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a
figure between 30,000 and 46,000 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 18.9% and still showing
standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.59% of a population and
still increasing. 74 countries have infection rates over 5%, 19 countries have infection rates over 10%.

The figures for the UK have fallen on the previous weeks on 6 occasions so far, the trend now showing a mild decrease, so there is hope that the numbers will continue to fall at least for the moment. Lockdown and a lot of restrictions ended on the 19th July, 9 days ago, so it is likely that they will stay at current figures or start to increase for a while. It takes time for the infection system to get started again, especially in areas of initially small figures.

There are claims that the epidemic will probably be over, at least for the UK by about october, but this is probably being extremely optimistic at best, viewing that the fat lady has started warming up her voice, when it’s likely she is still in bed at home and waiting for a booking.

After 22 months and 25 variants, 10 of concern, 2 widespread and hit the UK, about 4% of the worlds population have been infected. The view that the world or the UK is nearing herd immunity and there are a large proportion of unknown cases doesn’t seem to gel with the testing in the world, and some restricting countries showing 19% infection levels, and still increasing by day. So the likelihood is ‘nowhere near.’ The fact that more people are being infected after double doses of the vaccine in the UK means that those who have not had a vaccine at all are fully at risk, and there is a risk, albeit reduced to 10% of previously, to even those who have had both doses. In the UK for the moment we have probably reduced it to a serious seasonal flu epidemic level. We will probably see the results of the disproportionate response over the next few years and the long term effects in 20.

At a restricted rate, and outbreaks continually occurring in each country around the world I would expect Covid to last for at least about another 10 years. During that time we would probably have another 200 variants with about 100 of concern, possibly 10 running around the UK, requiring fast updating of vaccines, 1 or 2 hitting the young and healthy aswell. The view that we are at the beginning of the end is probably not realistic, more that we are at the end of the beginning, so forward planning should reflect this rather than catering and planning for an unlikely situation and just hoping for the best.

As of today, 30/07/2021, in the world there have been 198 million cases
with about an estimated 11 million active cases, increasing at +1.66% per day, and 4.22 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 5.83 million cases and 129,600 deaths. It has an estimated 715,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 35.7 million cases and 628,900 deaths with about 950,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.76%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.13%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.22%. About 5.6% of known cases are still active in the world, 12.3% in the UK, 2.7% in the US.

It’s likely 3.8% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 12.8% of the UK, and 16% of the US.

It’s estimated that about 2.18 billion people (28%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 46.5 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 33 weeks ago, 35.5 million for the second dose, averaging 361,000 doses a day over this period, but about 212,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 71.5% in Canada have had one dose of a vaccine, 57.5% both, 69% in the UK, 55.5% both, 57% in the US, 50% both, and 58.5% in the EU, 48% both. Most of the vulnerable people in the UK have had both doses of a vaccine. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s population by 9th February 2023. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 26th December 2023, and a fourth taking the date to 11th November 2024, and a fifth to 28th September 2025.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.78% for the world and
1.2% for the UK, the current figures being 1.85% for the world and 0.17% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.5% and the
current figure is 0.95%. The range for the world based on this figure is
1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 30/07/2020 there have been 245.1 million tests conducted in the UK,
about 240.7 million antigen tests and 4.4 million antibody tests, 5.83 million
positive of those 120 million processed, 4.86%, or 1 in 21 testing positive,
95.14%, 20 out of 21 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a
figure between 25,500 and 40,000 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 18.9% and still showing
standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.59% of a population and
still increasing. 76 countries have infection rates over 5%, 20 countries have infection rates over 10%.

Vaccination and overall testing rates continue to fall in the UK, averaging a fall of about 95% week on week, with vaccinations at a level when they first really started in January. Is it unwillingness to have them, a reduction in provision, or a lack of supply? Even with the vaccine complications of compromised immune systems, the risks of not having vaccines is two orders above that of the risks of having them. Testing in the UK seems to be going a bit strange, with what seems to be reticence in reporting cases. Maybe it’s due to not willing to endure further lockdowns, but it has a knock on effect of altering the view of what is actually happening. Actual cases not being reported unless serious, skewing the figures. If the mortality figure doesn’t fall next week then it’s likely the case rate is in fact higher than reported, so a 10% additional factor will need to be included, with actual cases being about 60% higher than officially reported, rather than about 50%.

The latest trends for the UK if the end of lockdown on the 19th and the increase in Delta infections doesn’t start the figures increasing again are:

6th UK Model with Recalculation for Delta
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
02/08/2021 Monday 19,827 11
03/08/2021 Tuesday 19,751 86
04/08/2021 Wednesday 22,039 60
05/08/2021 Thursday 24,727 62
06/08/2021 Friday 23,539 49
07/08/2021 Saturday 20,775 49
08/08/2021 Sunday 19,445 37
09/08/2021 Monday 14,789 7
10/08/2021 Tuesday 14,732 52
11/08/2021 Wednesday 16,439 37
12/08/2021 Thursday 18,444 40
13/08/2021 Friday 17,558 30
14/08/2021 Saturday 15,496 30
15/08/2021 Sunday 14,504 23
16/08/2021 Monday 11,391 4
17/08/2021 Tuesday 11,348 31
18/08/2021 Wednesday 12,663 23
19/08/2021 Thursday 14,207 25
20/08/2021 Friday 13,525 19
21/08/2021 Saturday 11,937 19
22/08/2021 Sunday 11,172 15
23/08/2021 Monday 8,636 3
24/08/2021 Tuesday 8,603 20
25/08/2021 Wednesday 9,599 14
26/08/2021 Thursday 10,770 16
27/08/2021 Friday 10,253 12
28/08/2021 Saturday 9,049 12
29/08/2021 Sunday 8,470 9

If I were to make a guess, I would say that the occurrence of the Delta variant was not unexpected, and has changed the rules. The risk of catching Covid is probably now somewhere near the same as from an unvaccinated person as a vaccinated person. And the risk of a serious evolutionary counter variant is much higher because of this. Widespread use of malaria drugs and antibiotics have shown this response of a biological to something that tries to eliminate it, only really allowing the strongest components to survive. Also, if the risk from vaccinated people is similar to unvaccinated, then a lot of the passports and vaccination restrictions are pretty meaningless, as are the non-native people travelling to a country. The risk not being larger than native people. If in Germany, the risk from another German is the same as a Frenchman overall, or from the UK, and vice versa. Also, because of Delta, herd immunity is no longer a good concept. as an unvaccinated person can catch the disease off another unvaccinated person equally at much as a vaccinated person, so the herd protection principle is suspect. At some time everybody is likely to catch it rather than 70, 80 or 90%.

We will need over the next week if the trend is in fact reducing, the recent mortality figures suggesting as much as 50% larger numbers infected in the UK than reported or officially recorded. If this is so, then this is a worrying prospect for assessing options, and the population may be prepared to sleep-walk into future problems. The response must be in proportion to the risk, a thing that people are not very good at evaluating here, trading small gains for big practices, and big gains being given small interest. A lot is based on the heavy handed and over the top rules of administrators.

As of today, 06/08/2021, in the world there have been 202 million cases
with about an estimated 10.8 million active cases, increasing at +1.64% per day, and 4.29 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 5.98 million cases and 130,086 deaths. It has an estimated 740,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 36.4 million cases and 632,400 deaths with about 873,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.74%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.22%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.17%. About 5.3% of known cases are still active in the world, 12.4% in the UK, 2.4% in the US.

It’s likely 3.9% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 13.1% of the UK, and 16.4% of the US.

It’s estimated that about 2.35 billion people (30%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 46.5 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 34 weeks ago, 35.5 million for the second dose, averaging 356,000 doses a day over this period, but about 189,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 72% in Canada have had one dose of a vaccine, 61% both, 69.5% in the UK, 57.5% both, 58% in the US, 50% both, and 60.5% in the EU, 51% both. Most of the vulnerable people in the UK have had both doses of a vaccine. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s population by 25th April 2023. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 19th April 2024, and a fourth taking the date to 14th April 2025, and a fifth to 10th April 2026.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.78% for the world and
1.17% for the UK, the current figures being 1.55% for the world and 0.15% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.49% and the current figure is 0.88%. The range for the world based on this figure is
1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 06/06/2020 there have been 250.5 million tests conducted in the UK,
about 246 million antigen tests and 4.5 million antibody tests, 5.98 million
positive of those 122 million processed, 4.9%, or 1 in 20 testing positive,
95.1%, 19 out of 20 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a
figure between 21,500 and 33.500 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 19.2% and still showing
standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.59% of a population and
still increasing. 80 countries have infection rates over 5%, 22 countries have infection rates over 10%.

The beta varant is showing increases again and is showing signs of vaccine resistence. It’s almost certain that a booster for both delta and beta variants will become necessary in the next 6 months, the uptake of vaccines by the young reducing by about 10% each extra week. The next round of flu jabs will probably coincide with this, so it will likely be either a double, triple, or covid/influenza combined jab at that time. With such a differential between vaccinated and unvaccinated, the chance for a left field variant is becoming more likely.

Further to top advisors saying the pandemic for the UK is fairly over, I read an article that stated the ONS is seeing the numbers falling, and there is cause for some optimism. Are we looking at the same data? The only optimism is that the vaccines are working OK in the UK for the moment. Also, elsewhere in the world things are starting to get worse again, with a knock on effect for the UK, probably in the form of more extreme variants.

Last week the UK figures showed a consistent decrease for each day of the week and an overall decrease. This week, 4 days showed an increase, and 3 days a decrease, but the overall picture showed a rise. We will probably now need to wait a week to show the trend pattern. The world has shown an increase in new case rates of 1.2% per day in the last 6 weeks, which before was a doubling every 27 weeks, and is now looking at doubling every 9 weeks.

As of today, 10/08/2021, in the world there have been 204.6 million cases
with about an estimated 10.8 million active cases, increasing at +1.63% per day, and 4.32 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 6.09 million cases and 130,357 deaths. It has an estimated 741,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 36.9 million cases and 634,100 deaths with about 873,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.72%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.11%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.14%. About 5.3% of known cases are still active in the world, 12.2% in the UK, 2.4% in the US.

It’s likely 3.9% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 13.4% of the UK, and 16.6% of the US.

It’s estimated that about 2.39 billion people (30.5%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. On recalculation of area totals, an estimated 47.1 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 35 weeks ago, 39 million for the second dose, averaging 353,000 doses a day over this period, but about 192,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 72.5% in Canada have had one dose of a vaccine, 62.5% both, 69.5% in the UK, 58.5% both, 58.5% in the US, 50% both, and 61% in the EU, 52% both. Most of the vulnerable people in the UK have had both doses of a vaccine. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s population by 19th April 2023. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 7th April 2024, and a fourth taking the date to 27th March 2025, and a fifth to 16th March 2026.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.78% for the world and
1.16% for the UK, the current figures being 1.49% for the world and 0.23% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.48% and the current figure is 0.86%. The range for the world based on this figure is
1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 10/08/2020 there have been 253.4 million tests conducted in the UK,
about 248.8 million antigen tests and 4.6 million antibody tests, 6.09 million
positive of those 123.1 million processed, 4.95%, or 1 in 20 testing positive,
95.05%, 19 out of 20 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a
figure between 24,000 and 37,200 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 19.2% and still showing
standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.59% of a population and
still increasing. 80 countries have infection rates over 5%, 22 countries have infection rates over 10%.

The UK has shown a consistent rise in cases over the previous week for 6 consecutive days, averaging a 10% increase over that period, which was roughly the increase rate from the original virus variant, but in a 2/3rds vaccinated country and new variants.

The figures in the UK are changing and the variantions are not consistent, but a trend prediction based on the last 6 days is as below:

6th UK Model with Recalculation for Delta
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
13/08/2021 Friday 34,671 72
14/08/2021 Saturday 31,187 80
15/08/2021 Sunday 29,898 37
16/08/2021 Monday 26,359 33
17/08/2021 Tuesday 24,630 131
18/08/2021 Wednesday 31,022 105
19/08/2021 Thursday 34,503 76
20/08/2021 Friday 36,322 81
21/08/2021 Saturday 32,672 93
22/08/2021 Sunday 31,322 42
23/08/2021 Monday 28,088 39
24/08/2021 Tuesday 26,245 148
25/08/2021 Wednesday 33,057 116
26/08/2021 Thursday 36,765 84
27/08/2021 Friday 38,704 91
28/08/2021 Saturday 34,815 105
29/08/2021 Sunday 33,375 47
30/08/2021 Monday 29,678 43
31/08/2021 Tuesday 27,730 164
01/09/2021 Wednesday 34,928 127
02/09/2021 Thursday 38,846 94
03/09/2021 Friday 40,894 101
04/09/2021 Saturday 36,785 116
05/09/2021 Sunday 35,265 52
06/09/2021 Monday 31,491 48
07/09/2021 Tuesday 29,424 182
08/09/2021 Wednesday 37,061 142
09/09/2021 Thursday 41,219 104

I think it unlikely that another lockdown will happen before late september, but short term predictions based on the change in environment at the moment can go either way, the likeliest being an increase. How far can it go with our current level of vaccination? Yesterday, Israel, a country that has a higher vaccination rate among it’s population recorded 5946 new cases, the equivalent death rate appearing in about 12 days time, which would give and equivalent rate of about 46,000 for the UK if it gets to the same position, and about 7 times the Israeli figures on the 24th August.

As of today, 14/08/2021, in the world there have been 207.6 million cases
with about an estimated 12.5 million active cases, increasing at +1.62% per day, and 4.37 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 6.24 million cases and 130,894 deaths. It has an estimated 580,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 37.5 million cases and 638,000 deaths with about 2 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.7%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.11%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.03%. About 6% of known cases are still active in the world, 9% in the UK, 5.3% in the US.

It’s likely 4% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 14.2% of the UK, and 16.9% of the US.

It’s estimated that about 2.47 billion people (31.5%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 47.3 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 36 weeks ago, 40 million for the second dose, averaging 351,000 doses a day over this period, but about 201,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 74% in Spain and 73% in Canada have had one dose of a vaccine, 64% both, 70% in the UK, 60% both, 59% in the US, 50.5% both, and 62% in the EU, 54% both. Most of the vulnerable people in the UK have had both doses of a vaccine. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s population by 27th March 2023. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 28th February 2024, and a fourth taking the date to 1st February 2025, and a fifth to 6th January 2026.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.78% for the world and
1.15% for the UK, the current figures being 1.61% for the world and 0.26% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.48% and the current figure is 0.93%. The range for the world based on this figure is
1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 14/08/2020 there have been 256.4 million tests conducted in the UK,
about 251.8 million antigen tests and 4.6 million antibody tests, 6.44 million
positive of those 124.3 million processed, 5.18%, or 1 in 19 testing positive,
94.82%, 18 out of 19 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a
figure between 23,500 and 36,500 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 19.3% and still showing
standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.59% of a population and
still increasing. Highest mortality rate in an area is around 6.2% of those infected. 82 countries have infection rates over 5%, 24 countries have infection rates over 10%.

Covid-19 and Herd Tolerance

Up until today figures have been variable and I didn’t really want to change my model to be based on projections of estimated trends, rather than projections based on actual figures. Here is the updated projections for the UK for the next 4 weeks:

6th UK Model with Recalculation for Delta
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
16/08/2021 Monday 25,922 33
17/08/2021 Tuesday 24,221 129
18/08/2021 Wednesday 30,507 103
19/08/2021 Thursday 34,074 93
20/08/2021 Friday 33,689 99
21/08/2021 Saturday 30,412 100
22/08/2021 Sunday 27,559 58
23/08/2021 Monday 26,945 37
24/08/2021 Tuesday 25,177 141
25/08/2021 Wednesday 31,712 111
26/08/2021 Thursday 35,419 102
27/08/2021 Friday 35,019 109
28/08/2021 Saturday 31,613 107
29/08/2021 Sunday 28,647 63
30/08/2021 Monday 27,884 40
31/08/2021 Tuesday 26,055 151
01/09/2021 Wednesday 32,817 117
02/09/2021 Thursday 36,654 109
03/09/2021 Friday 36,239 115
04/09/2021 Saturday 32,715 114
05/09/2021 Sunday 29,645 66
06/09/2021 Monday 28,921 42
07/09/2021 Tuesday 27,023 161
08/09/2021 Wednesday 34,037 125
09/09/2021 Thursday 38,016 116
10/09/2021 Friday 37,586 123
11/09/2021 Saturday 33,931 122
12/09/2021 Sunday 30,747 71

Hopefully when the numbers from the US come in overnight I can do the same for the US.

Here’s the projections for the US:

5th Model for US with Some Adjustments for variants
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
08/16/2021 Monday 132,735 423
08/17/2021 Tuesday 131,282 852
08/18/2021 Wednesday 187,528 796
08/19/2021 Thursday 186,104 856
08/20/2021 Friday 201,352 997
08/21/2021 Saturday 92,231 335
08/22/2021 Sunday 40,042 158
08/23/2021 Monday 166,446 530
08/24/2021 Tuesday 164,623 1,068
08/25/2021 Wednesday 235,154 998
08/26/2021 Thursday 233,369 1,073
08/27/2021 Friday 252,489 1,250
08/28/2021 Saturday 115,655 419
08/29/2021 Sunday 50,211 198
08/30/2021 Monday 212,263 676
08/31/2021 Tuesday 209,938 1,362
09/01/2021 Wednesday 299,884 1,273
09/02/2021 Thursday 297,607 1,368
09/03/2021 Friday 321,990 1,594
09/04/2021 Saturday 147,490 535
09/05/2021 Sunday 64,032 253
09/06/2021 Monday 268,431 855
09/07/2021 Tuesday 265,492 1,723
09/08/2021 Wednesday 379,238 1,610
09/09/2021 Thursday 376,359 1,731
09/10/2021 Friday 407,194 2,016
09/11/2021 Saturday 186,519 676
09/12/2021 Sunday 80,976 320

As of today, 22/08/2021, in the world there have been 212.2 million cases
with about an estimated 12.7 million active cases, increasing at +1.61% per day, and 4.43 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 6.46 million cases and 131,487 deaths. It has an estimated 550,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 38.6 million cases and 645,000 deaths with about 2.4 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.67%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.09%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.04%. About 6% of known cases are still active in the world, 8.6% in the UK, 6.2% in the US.

It’s likely 4.1% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 14.2% of the UK, and 17.4% of the US.

It’s estimated that about 2.58 billion people (33%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 47.7 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 37 weeks ago, 41 million for the second dose, averaging 347,000 doses a day over this period, but about 207,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 80% in Portugal and 79% in Qatar have had one dose of a vaccine, 70.5% in the UK, 61.5% both, 60.5% in the US, 51% both, and 63.5% in the EU, 56% both. Most of the vulnerable people in the UK have had both doses of a vaccine. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s population by 16th March 2023. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 7th February 2024, and a fourth taking the date to 30th December 2024, and a fifth to 23rd November 2025.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.77% for the world and
1.13% for the UK, the current figures being 1.38% for the world and 0.31% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.47% and the current figure is 0.96%. The range for the world based on this figure is
1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 22/08/2020 there have been 261.8 million tests conducted in the UK,
about 257.2 million antigen tests and 4.6 million antibody tests, 6.46 million
positive of those 126.6 million processed, 5.1%, or 1 in 20 testing positive,
94.9%, 19 out of 20 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a
figure between 26,000 and 40,500 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 19.6% and still showing
standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.59% of a population and
still increasing. Highest mortality rate in an area is around 9.2% of those infected. 84 countries have infection rates over 5%, 27 countries have infection rates over 10%.

Now I’ve had a reasonable set of data with the trends stabilising the trends for the UK look like the ones below. Hopefull tomorrow I can do the same for the US.

6th UK Model with Recalculation for Delta
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
23/08/2021 Monday 31,052 35
24/08/2021 Tuesday 29,320 193
25/08/2021 Wednesday 37,020 130
26/08/2021 Thursday 39,933 129
27/08/2021 Friday 40,744 133
28/08/2021 Saturday 35,005 120
29/08/2021 Sunday 35,217 65
30/08/2021 Monday 34,576 42
31/08/2021 Tuesday 32,648 239
01/09/2021 Wednesday 41,222 157
02/09/2021 Thursday 44,466 157
03/09/2021 Friday 45,368 161
04/09/2021 Saturday 38,978 142
05/09/2021 Sunday 39,215 77
06/09/2021 Monday 38,128 50
07/09/2021 Tuesday 36,001 286
08/09/2021 Wednesday 45,456 189
09/09/2021 Thursday 49,033 187
10/09/2021 Friday 50,028 194
11/09/2021 Saturday 42,981 169
12/09/2021 Sunday 43,243 94
13/09/2021 Monday 42,250 60
14/09/2021 Tuesday 39,893 344
15/09/2021 Wednesday 50,370 227
16/09/2021 Thursday 54,334 225
17/09/2021 Friday 55,437 233
18/09/2021 Saturday 47,628 204
19/09/2021 Sunday 47,918 113

US Projections are:

5th Model for US with Some Adjustments for variants
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
08/23/2021 Monday 120,030 357
08/24/2021 Tuesday 158,934 1,011
08/25/2021 Wednesday 183,033 1,221
08/26/2021 Thursday 179,318 1,119
08/27/2021 Friday 174,909 1,226
08/28/2021 Saturday 105,081 598
08/29/2021 Sunday 35,663 229
08/30/2021 Monday 135,702 403
08/31/2021 Tuesday 179,686 1,142
09/01/2021 Wednesday 206,932 1,381
09/02/2021 Thursday 202,731 1,265
09/03/2021 Friday 197,746 1,386
09/04/2021 Saturday 118,801 677
09/05/2021 Sunday 40,319 259
09/06/2021 Monday 155,249 461
09/07/2021 Tuesday 205,567 1,307
09/08/2021 Wednesday 236,738 1,579
09/09/2021 Thursday 231,932 1,448
09/10/2021 Friday 226,229 1,585
09/11/2021 Saturday 135,913 774
09/12/2021 Sunday 46,127 296
09/13/2021 Monday 176,565 524
09/14/2021 Tuesday 233,793 1,486
09/15/2021 Wednesday 269,243 1,796
09/16/2021 Thursday 263,777 1,647
09/17/2021 Friday 257,292 1,803
09/18/2021 Saturday 154,575 880
09/19/2021 Sunday 52,460 337

As of today, 26/08/2021, in the world there have been 215.5 million cases
with about an estimated 13.4 million active cases, increasing at +1.59% per day, and 4.49 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 6.63 million cases and 132,143 deaths. It has an estimated 615,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 39.3 million cases and 650,000 deaths with about 2.9 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.65%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.09%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 1.99%. About 6.2% of known cases are still active in the world, 9.3% in the UK, 7.4% in the US.

It’s likely 4.1% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 14.6% of the UK, and 17.7% of the US.

It’s estimated that about 2.6 billion people (33.2%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 48 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 37 weeks ago, 42 million for the second dose, averaging 345,000 doses a day over this period, but about 212,400 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 82% in Portugal and 81% in Qatar have had one dose of a vaccine, 71% in the UK, 62% both, 61% in the US, 51.5% both, and 64% in the EU, 56.5% both. Most of the vulnerable people in the UK have had both doses of a vaccine. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s population by 6th March 2023. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 20th January 2024, and a fourth taking the date to 6th December 2024, and a fifth to 22nd October 2025.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.76% for the world and
1.12% for the UK, the current figures being 1.36% for the world and 0.31% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.46% and the current figure is 0.96%. The range for the world based on this figure is
1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 26/08/2020 there have been 264.7 million tests conducted in the UK,
about 260 million antigen tests and 4.7 million antibody tests, 6.63 million
positive of those 128.7 million processed, 5.15%, or 1 in 19 testing positive,
94.85%, 18 out of 19 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a
figure between 28,000 and 44,000 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 19.8% and still showing
standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.59% of a population and
still increasing. Highest mortality rate in an area is around 9.2% of those infected. 85 countries have infection rates over 5%, 29 countries have infection rates over 10%.

The UK is averaging a 9.1% increase per week in cases, and a 11% mortality increase per week at the moment. The US is averaging a 15% increase per week in cases, and a 29% mortality increase per week at the moment. Israel is averaging a 42% increase per week in cases, and a 70% mortality increase per week at the moment, but the overall mortality from cases seems to be about 0.6% compared to the worlds 2.1%.

As of today, 30/08/2021, in the world there have been 217.7 million cases
with about an estimated 13.1 million active cases, increasing at +1.59% per day, and 4.52 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 6.76 million cases and 132,485 deaths. It has an estimated 640,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 39.7 million cases and 655,000 deaths with about 2.9 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.65%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.07%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 1.96%. About 6% of known cases are still active in the world, 9.5% in the UK, 7.3% in the US.

It’s likely 4.2% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 14.9% of the UK, and 17.9% of the US.

It’s estimated that about 2.7 billion people (34.5%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 48.5 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 38 weeks ago, 42.3 million for the second dose, averaging 342,000 doses a day over this period, but about 177,400 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 71.5% in the UK have had a dose of vaccine, 62.5% both, 61.5% in the US, 52% both, and 65% in the EU, 57% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s population by 28th June 2023. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 16th July 2024, and a fourth taking the date to 3rd August 2025, and a fifth to 21st August 2026.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.76% for the world and
1.11% for the UK, the current figures being 1.37% for the world and 0.34% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.46% and the current figure is 0.96%. The range for the world based on this figure is
1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 30/08/2020 there have been 267.2 million tests conducted in the UK,
about 262.5 million antigen tests and 4.7 million antibody tests, 6.76 million
positive of those 129.7 million processed, 5.21%, or 1 in 19 testing positive,
94.89%, 18 out of 19 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a
figure between 29,000 and 45,500 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 20% and still showing
standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.59% of a population and
still increasing. Highest mortality rate in an area is around 9.2% of those infected. 88 countries have infection rates over 5%, 29 countries have infection rates over 10%.

The UK is averaging a 7.5% increase per week in cases, and a 12% mortality increase per week at the moment. The US is averaging a 13% increase per week in cases, and a 24% mortality increase per week at the moment. Israel is averaging a 33% increase per week in cases, and a 47% mortality increase per week at the moment, but the overall mortality from recent cases seems to be about 0.61% compared to the worlds 2.1%.

UK Forecast is as below:

6th UK Model with Recalculation for Delta
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
31/08/2021 Tuesday 33,695 224
01/09/2021 Wednesday 39,296 168
02/09/2021 Thursday 41,964 160
03/09/2021 Friday 41,707 124
04/09/2021 Saturday 35,524 145
05/09/2021 Sunday 36,390 70
06/09/2021 Monday 28,040 48
07/09/2021 Tuesday 35,686 259
08/09/2021 Wednesday 41,618 193
09/09/2021 Thursday 44,443 181
10/09/2021 Friday 44,171 136
11/09/2021 Saturday 37,623 162
12/09/2021 Sunday 38,540 80
13/09/2021 Monday 29,721 49
14/09/2021 Tuesday 37,826 296
15/09/2021 Wednesday 44,113 217
16/09/2021 Thursday 47,108 203
17/09/2021 Friday 46,819 153
18/09/2021 Saturday 39,878 181
19/09/2021 Sunday 40,850 90
20/09/2021 Monday 31,490 53
21/09/2021 Tuesday 40,077 329
22/09/2021 Wednesday 46,738 242
23/09/2021 Thursday 49,912 227
24/09/2021 Friday 49,605 171
25/09/2021 Saturday 42,252 202
26/09/2021 Sunday 43,282 100

US Forecast is below:

5th Model for US with Some Adjustments for variants
Date Day Case Trend Death Trend
08/30/2021 Monday 130,488 501
08/31/2021 Tuesday 169,186 1,318
09/01/2021 Wednesday 189,610 1,421
09/02/2021 Thursday 187,242 1,341
09/03/2021 Friday 210,182 1,440
09/04/2021 Saturday 80,360 715
09/05/2021 Sunday 41,112 314
09/06/2021 Monday 144,096 554
09/07/2021 Tuesday 186,831 1,456
09/08/2021 Wednesday 209,384 1,569
09/09/2021 Thursday 206,770 1,481
09/10/2021 Friday 232,101 1,590
09/11/2021 Saturday 88,740 790
09/12/2021 Sunday 45,400 346
09/13/2021 Monday 159,108 611
09/14/2021 Tuesday 206,294 1,607
09/15/2021 Wednesday 231,197 1,733
09/16/2021 Thursday 228,311 1,636
09/17/2021 Friday 256,281 1,755
09/18/2021 Saturday 97,985 872
09/19/2021 Sunday 50,129 382
09/20/2021 Monday 175,692 675
09/21/2021 Tuesday 227,797 1,775
09/22/2021 Wednesday 255,295 1,913
09/23/2021 Thursday 252,108 1,806
09/24/2021 Friday 282,994 1,938
09/25/2021 Saturday 108,198 963
09/26/2021 Sunday 55,355 422

As of today, 06/09/2021, in the world there have been 222 million cases
with about an estimated 13 million active cases, increasing at +1.59% per day, and 4.59 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 7.02 million cases and 133,274 deaths. It has an estimated 697,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 40.9 million cases and 666,500 deaths with about 3.07 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.63%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.07%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 1.9%. About 4.3% of known cases are still active in the world, 9.9% in the UK, 7.5% in the US.

It’s likely 4.2% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 15.4% of the UK, and 18.4% of the US.

It’s estimated that about 2.8 billion people (35.8%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 48.5 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 39 weeks ago, 43 million for the second dose, averaging 336,000 doses a day over this period, but about 138,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 72% in the UK have had a dose of vaccine, 63% both, 62% in the US, 52% both, and 65.5% in the EU, 57% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s population by 12th Jnuary 2024. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 19th May 2025, and a fourth taking the date to 23rd September 2026, and a fifth to 29th January 2028.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.75% for the world and
1.1% for the UK, the current figures being 1.3% for the world and 0.31% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.45% and the current figure is 0.96%. The range for the world based on this figure is
1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.12-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 06/09/2020 there have been 277.5 million tests conducted in the UK,
about 272.8 million antigen tests and 4.7 million antibody tests, 7.02 million
positive of those 132.7 million processed, 5.29%, or 1 in 19 testing positive,
94.71%, 18 out of 19 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a
figure between 28,500 and 44,500 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 20.5% and still showing
standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.59% of a population and
still increasing. Highest mortality rate in an area is around 9.2% of those infected. 89 countries have infection rates over 5%, 30 countries have infection rates over 10%.

The UK is averaging a 7.6% increase per week in cases, and a 8.6% mortality increase per week at the moment. The US is averaging a 9.5% increase per week in cases, and a 20.5% mortality increase per week at the moment. Israel is averaging a 16.4% increase per week in cases, and a 30.5% mortality increase per week at the moment, but the overall mortality from recent cases seems to be about 0.61% compared to the worlds 2.1%.

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