Pole Position and the Sun too
The strangest thing I have come across in coincidence is the development of humankind. Humans in their present for developed around 200,000 years ago. Before that we had races mainly Neanderthals and Denisovans that became absorbed into the human genome. They were around as much as 350,000 years. So, for 340,000 years of that time humans did nothing except survive and grub around. Then about 10,000 years ago, the time when the megafauna died out, humans in as much as six separate and discrete areas of the planet all started to develop simultaneously, quickly all developing types of agriculture.
So, if you take the period in which it happened, it was the last 3% for all six areas. If you took this as a random action for happening within 340,000 years it would be 30:1. Happening twice would be around 900:1, 3 times 27,000:1, 4 times 810,000 to 1, 5 times 24 million to one, all six, 730 billion to 1. You would be 16 times more like to win the lottery than that.
The alternative suggests something happened between 9-10,000BC that was worldwide and reset civilisations, megafauna just being notable victims of this event. The likeliest events are volcanic and meteoric, with a lesser chance of solar outbursts, magnetic pole shifts and supernova irradiation but the evidence undiscovered as yet.
26/02/2023 – Extremely high and unusual solar proton emissions slightly later than expected by model predicted at 24/02/2023. Aurorae seen as far south as Cornwall in UK. Next point of concern around 16/05/2023. It is quite difficult to eliminate general fluctuations and what and what not to count towards a cycle. So the probability is that the most likely period is 78 days with extended periods of about periods 50X, 15X and 3X, so 78 days, 3900 days, 58,500 days and 175,500 days. (78 days, 10.7 years, 160 years and 480 years.)
24/01/2021 – Grackles or large blackbirds swarming in the Texas area. Normally thins sort of thing usually happens in Africa. The common grackle (Quiscalus quiscula) and other of the Quiscalus species have been found to be attuned to earth’s magnetic fields to a significant degree.
19/06/2021 – 9,000 racing pigeons set off from Peterborough of about 250,000 birds released that day in the UK, on a flight that should take 3 hours on average. About 5,000 (55%) of those failed to arrive, and 90% failed to arrive in the expected time for the UK, so the overall loss may be as high as 30,000. There have also been reports of heavy losses in Belgium and Portugal. Pigeons navigate by sight and magnetic lines.
26/06/2021 Hubble Space Telescope main computer still glitching after 10 days, and backup computer is starting to glitch too.
09/07/2021 For over a week now the sun has been unusually and continuously active with a higher than normal solar wind, especially in the x-ray bands. I would think local space may be becoming more hazardous, and the sun becoming more active rather than less, not boding well for the next few years. This seems to be continuing.
09/01/2021 – Grackles or large blackbirds swarming again in the Texas area.
It’s interesting that NASA is predicting the lowest solar activity level for over 200 years, the last being the Dalton minimum about 1800-1825, the previous one being the Maunder minimum in the late 1660-1700, with startling aurora in 1716, although the latest data coming in on sunspot activity is generally twice that which they have predicted. Was the last one connected to the Carrington event of 1859, 34 years after the Dalton minimum, that produced similar aurorae? Previously there was little electrical equipment being used, most of it being quite coarse and highly resilient systems. If the similar cycle of events occurs, then we may find out with possible events, starting from about 2 years before the next maximum, from something like May 2023 onwards, suggesting similar patterns, 11, 22 and 33 years later.
From reconstructed carbon-14-based dendroclimatology, it’s quite possible that the last severe peak was around 9000BC, when human civilization seemed to start from, homo sapiens basically doing nothing at all for about the first 290,000 years (96%) they had been around. All advancement has happened in the last 11,000 years, basically none before.
The deepest hole ever made through the crust was the Kola Superdeep Borehole that was about 7.6 miles. The earth’s crust at the point it was made was about 3 times this distance, so what lies beneath isn’t proven but guesswork from seismic estimations, so the idea of believe two massive blobs on molten iron in Earth’s outer core, is guesswork based on guesswork of an estimation.
We are supposed to have inside the earth a large core of mainly molten iron that is prone to fluid flow. From this molten core we are supposed to get our protective magnetic shield. Many experiments have been made to simulate this core but most of them are really two-dimensional paint studies, and forgetting a third dimension usually renders them just theoretical guesswork at best. So, we have a swirling mass that changes in 3 dimensions with us floating on a crust and intermediate zone around it. Most of its effects are long term unless something happens to interfere with its balance.
For the past 150 years the magnetic north pole has been moving and speeding up, especially within the last 70 years, having moved the same distance in the last 10 years as the first 100 years recorded, and likely the previous 120 before that. From about 1850 the direction has been steadily moving towards the actual North pole and at this moment isn’t that far from it. The direction has been roughly a 105° direction across the pole towards a 285° direction.
But if you compare the movements of the north magnetic pole to the south magnetic pole there is a remarked difference in that the south is not moving anywhere near so much. But there is evidence appearing that things are also happening in the South. One thing that is marked which is supported by a recent NASA satellite survey, is that one side of the Antarctic is losing ice and the other side is gaining it. This seems to be the 105° direction consistently losing ice and the 285° direction gaining it. Now this may just be a coincidence, but the direction that it is happening in the south ought to be kept an eye on as it may be another indication of a axis or pole shift. Things don’t just happen by chance and the direction this is happening seems to be in the same diagonal as the magnetic north shift.
It’s guessed that a pole reversal happens about every 2-300,000 years, but the last one was 780,000 years ago, and it’s said to take 100’s of thousands of years. Again, this is guesswork against actual phenomena that we are seeing and recording. We know the poles change place as they have been recorded in history, but estimates seem to indicate that prior to 1650 the magnetic north pole had been slowly moving south until about 1850, about the distance it has moved in the past 20 years. Now, if you add to the mix the last major flare from the sun that was called the Carrington event that took place in 1859, effectively a large magnetic kick, it’s strange that it changed direction and started to increase in speed at that point in time.
The consensus is that it’s nothing to worry about and if it did happen then there would be little effect, but it’s possible it could be like comparing the waterline receding suddenly a mile and just claiming the tides just going out. Things on a planetary scale are rarely insignificant, whoever claims that they are.
One thing that is noticeable is the current levels of radiation from flares (23/05/2021). Flares are not unusual, Tom Jones wore them when he sang the song, but the intensity at this stage in the sun’s cycle is. That we are getting them in higher power ahead of schedule is worrying, suggesting that in the solar flare season they may be considerably more powerful than normal, possibly up to and exceeding the level of the Carrington Event. The next peak is still supposed to be at least a couple of years away and we are receiving radiation at up to 12 times normal values.
The world works on checks and balances and one of the things that protects us is our magnetic field, minor changes in it causing major effects, especially as far as our complicated electrical equipment goes. If we are due for a pole change the magnetic situation of a planetary size shift may be more than a minor fluctuation and be destabilised for more than a few hours. I can visualise as much as 50% more ionising radiation from the sun reaching the planet so we could be in for a rough ride. But things are not just separate systems totally unconnected, and it may be no coincidence that the thing known as the Carrington event happened about the time that this shift started to be noticed.
With the world going into a bit of disarray with Covid-19, another ‘Carrington event’ when the earth’s protection is at its weakest may be a big problem. Look at the problems we have had with what is really a minor problem in world terms as far as the systems we have in place that have been affected. I refer to another article I wrote on the dangers of a technically, socially and economically interdependent and interconnected society. The more ‘systems’ that are in place, and the more complicated the relationships between them, the bigger impact a deviation in the nexus points will give. Not all nexus points are physical, society creating artificial ones that function in reality. All systems are rarely chaotic, and dependent on nexus points for their operation. People often call them tipping points, but they are really multidimensional entities. I plan to do another article on dynamic nexus analysis and how they apply to models in the future.
Recently there was a study that found semi-tropical conditions at the south pole that may have been there 90 million years ago, so the possibility is that the earth was a lot hotter than than now by not as trivial as a 1 or 2°C difference, but as much as +70°C. What if it was a difference in attitude to the sun that would not show up in any magnetic fields in rocks?
One of the things that has always interested me is why there is a sudden change from purely nomadic random wanderers and hunter gatherer’s in the human race to farmers and massive monument builders with organised societies and religions. This happened between about 10,000-5,000 BCE. For hundreds of thousands of years, it is assumed we carried on with little technology or organisation but something gave a push about 7,000 years ago, and all this appeared within a very short time, pretty simultaneously around the world at places thousands of miles distant. Science is good, but it is very quick to discount evidence that doesn’t fit, always trying to look at it in a way that will make it fit the current consensus, rather than taking it as is.
If you look at all the civilizations, the cut-off point is somewhere near 10,000 years ago. Before that next to nothing, after that large expansion and development worldwide. It’s possible that man developed to an advanced level quickly, but our current species showed various items and ornaments that were ceremonial up to 50,000 years ago and have been found recently in Neanderthal societies, assuming that they were taught this by homo sapiens. We aren’t even sure it was not the other way around, in which case history of such things could go back 250,000-400,000 years.
In one of my other articles I indicated and was struck by how ancient man was not so different in abilities to the current man, but what was odd was that everywhere there was next to no real progress in 100’s of thousands of years, and suddenly all around the world simultaneous and synchronised advancement started up.
An event that was quicker than say 1,000 years would not show up in geological structures, so as far as science is concerned, so it never happened. But sedimentary rock such as limestone, which is normally a combination of calcite and aragonite, being just different crystalline structures, forms at a rate of about 1mm every 10 years, with a mix forming, so a notable boundary probably isn’t notable for as much as 1,000 years. Add to that weathering which conceals the evidence, it’s plenty of time for sub 1,000-year duration events to take place, possibly even sub-10,000 events, so it could be from as many as 40 major worldwide disasters to 200 such events, unnoticed in sapiens history. Chicxulub, the event that probably wiped out a lot of the dinosaurs about 66 million years ago went unnoticed until 1978 and a chance magnetic survey, totally concealed by earth’s weathering even though it probably had a 2,000km diameter wide severe damage zone. We have been told of the bombardments at the dawn of the solar system that created the earth, but a lot of that is still just theory, and the earth may be prone to more bombardments than we think, especially if our solar system, galaxy, and universe works in a number of cycles. Are we just lucky to live in an era of low incidence? Do we rely on the principle of ‘don’t worry about it; the chances of winning the lottery are so rare, it will probably never happen in our lifetimes.’ But what if it was running for 8,000 lifetimes of continual entry? In 6 years, there have been 107 wins, so extrapolated to the history of sapiens, that works out to about 1/10th of the current population of the UK. So, what would an extinction level that conspires through events to be the equivalent of 66 million years ago?
It still worries me; 390,000 years of nothing; 10,000 years of advance; 300 years of super-fast advance.
If there is a major problem brewing it is estimated at being at least something like 30+ years in the future, probably over 100, but like the events that have been happening recently, our highly specialised, interconnected, interdependent and interrelated technological society has little planning and in-built resilience to weather such storms, the iron-age being just a storm’s throw away, and some see clouds on the horizon. Others see our current lifestyle and level of technology as a permanent fixture, and able to last any minor challenge such as a possible global extinction event.
A few things about the sun seems to be apparent. One is that there is a solar magnetic activity cycle that averages every 11 years. There is also seems to be another cycle that seems to average a multiple of 15 cycles at about 165 years between occurrences. Add to this magnetic pole movement that causes the weakening of the earth’s geomagnetic field that protects to a certain extent the earth from the sun’s direct radiation and the current magnetic wave that is travelling around the equator destabilising the protection even further, it is quite possible for a ‘perfect storm’ of an exceptional coronal mass ejection coinciding with all the cycles, the sun being at its most violent and the earth’s defences being at their weakest.
The magnetic protection has been noticeably weakening for 150 years, so there may be an underlying cycle in the earth causing this. The earth’s population not having the technology that may be affected by such things prior to 150 years ago, so not being something that would normally be noticed by pre-computer civilisations.
Magnetic pole movements are not a freak occurrence, happening commonly over the earth’s history, but the records of this are not there for times past 300 years, only being deduced from major discovered effects, the last one possibly being 30,000 ago. Nobody knows how common they are as there are no records. The rapidly coming solar maximum’s cycle may simply coincide with this ‘earth cycle,’
The next major solar maximum for CME’s is around 2025, the Carrington event of 1859 being almost exactly 15 cycles and 166 years before. This would not be good for all the electrical and computer-controlled systems around the world.
Mankind has been in its current form for maybe 250,000 years, and before about 12,000 years ago there are next to no records anywhere on the planet, all advancement considered to have happened in the last 5% of that time with nothing before. Artefacts have been discovered from 100,000 ago that showed paint or glue being mixed and contained, so there is no evidence that people were not able to devise invention at that time. Other complex objects that seem to be of ‘lizard gods’ with elongated head aspects have been discovered from 6,000 years ago, so the consideration of advancement only in the last few thousand seems suspect.
Such events may be common, but at the moment we may only now be in a technological position where those events may be systematically disastrous, prior to this possibly being a combination of not being aware, or that the effects had such an effect to reset the technology at that time, the time period since destroying any evidence of it.
You need to ask ‘if an iphone was left for 12,000 years, what would it look like after that time?’ Would it have degraded into an enriched pile of carbon and minerals, or just dust that had been blown away by the weather?