Coronavirus Risks 8 (SARS-CoV-2)

I’ve been following the virus for 80 weeks now now. Originally I thought that it would be very limited, but that changed about 78 weeks ago, when the numbers began to rise and we found out more about it. The infected seem to consist of a lot that are in recovery, official active cases currently 6.4%, being recently adjusted, but more likely 8%, increasing at a rate of 0.2% per day, but does’t seem to push the continuity risk to the average population above around about 2.2% mortality if you contract the disease. Actual numbers are probably about 1.5X the recorded ones for cases, a figure that comes from about 4 billion tests being taken on about 20% of the worlds population, 32 countries now having tested all of their population. Its likely that we are seeing the effects of various mutations in countries rather than a single one. The rate has been pretty consistent since most countries locked down and the effects of this took place since May 2020. There was a lull in figures, but that was probably due to countries finally getting around to working out the statistics, but the numbers are starting to rise in the world again in proportion, so it suggests more potent variants are starting to appear and replace the previous ones we know and are guarding against. The moving average of active and infective cases suggest that the world as a whole under lockdown has an ‘R’ rate of about 1.01, so there is little chance of it being controlled even with current vaccines for at least 10 months, possibly years if the logistics are wrong. Currently the numbers will probably double every 24.6 weeks and keep on reoccurring or inititiating in each country. Given mutations by numbers, it is probable that any country will need to stay in lockdown and isolate for the next couple of years to avoid it. Since circumstances have not changed much over the last 12 months the likelihood of catching the disease is therefore now probably around 93% at some time, so all that can probably be done is to manage and delay. There have been at least 20 major variants that have occurred in the first 184 million cases (2.4%) over a period of 22 months, of which 10 are worrying in respect of vaccines and long term immunity. The Variant first identified in India (Delta) is becoming commonplace in the UK, and seems to be replacing the current variant, and new variants first found in Thailand and Vietnam are concerning, the latter possibly a combination of the Indian and Kent variants imported, but being much more infective. None of the variants are particular to any country, just being where they were first identified, and it’s likely that any attempts to prevent a country receiving cases is just political, unless bans on movement is applied to all countries and all travellers. Probably by the time a ban is instituted it has already arrived.

Current Status:

This is a continuation of Coronavirus Risks 7, Coronavirus Risks 6, a continuation of the original posts, Coronavirus Risks 5, Coronavirus Risks 4, Coronavirus Risks 3, Coronavirus Risks and Coronavirus Risks 2 that were also getting a bit long.

An updated estimate based on recent figures is as below:

5th Model with Adjustments for variants
DateDayCase TrendDeath Trend
23/04/2021Friday195226
24/04/2021Saturday165826
25/04/2021Sunday14158
26/04/2021Monday24673
27/04/2021Tuesday210227
28/04/2021Wednesday199418
29/04/2021Thursday232915
30/04/2021Friday162521
01/05/2021Saturday138122
02/05/2021Sunday11786
03/05/2021Monday18993
04/05/2021Tuesday161821
05/05/2021Wednesday153514
06/05/2021Thursday179312
07/05/2021Friday125116
08/05/2021Saturday106317
09/05/2021Sunday9075
10/05/2021Monday13692
11/05/2021Tuesday116615
12/05/2021Wednesday110710
13/05/2021Thursday12938
14/05/2021Friday90212
15/05/2021Saturday76612
16/05/2021Sunday6543
17/05/2021Monday9191
18/05/2021Tuesday78310
19/05/2021Wednesday7437
20/05/2021Thursday8676
21/05/2021Friday6058
22/05/2021Saturday5148
23/05/2021Sunday4392

As of today, 30/04/2021, in the world there have been 152 million cases with about an estimated 16.1 million active cases, increasing at +1.97% per day, and 3.19 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.42 million cases and 127,517 deaths. It has an estimated 48,600 known active cases. The US is reporting 33.1 million cases and 590,000 deaths with about 1.24 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.78%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.1%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.89%. About 10.6% of known cases are still active in the world, 1.1% in the UK, 3.75% in the US.

It’s likely 2.92% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.75% of the UK, and 15% of the US.

About 1.1 billion people (14.1%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 37.2 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 20 weeks ago, averaging 345,000 doses a day over this period, but about 526,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 63% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 27% having both doses, 55% in the UK, 43.5% in the US, and 23% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 7th August 2021, currently about 89% with 1st dose, and all it’s population by 11th December 2021 It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 19th April 2022, and a fourth taking the date to 26th August 2022.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.75% for the world and 1.53% for the UK, the current figures being 1.5% for the world and 1.27% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.51% and the current figure is 0.87%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.33%, for the UK, 0.47-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 30/04/2020 there have been 157.6 million tests conducted in the UK, about 154 million antigen tests and 3.6 million antibody tests, 4.42 million positive of those 92.1 million processed, 4.8%, or 1 in 21 testing positive, 95.2%, 20 out of 21 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 1,700 and 2,700 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 17.1% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.29% of a population and still increasing. 64 countries have infection rates over 5%.

I think it likely that if countries in the world continue not to vaccinate their populations as a whole, then lockdowns will probably continue for the next decade, the virus for possibly two, and it is just a matter of time before a severe variants gets into those countries. Many countries are still allowing mass superspreader events to take place.

From the recent data for the UK there is a worrying trend that seems to be happening. The figures could just be a blip, but there seems to be evidence of new strains in the UK that are more resistant to the vaccines. It may just be that with the over confidence that everything is getting back to normal, people are relaxing the standards they have previously kept to. Or it may just be due to the increase in testing catching more of the people that were previously overlooked, but if the trend continues it may point to people in the 40-60 age groups becoming more susceptible, rather than mainly the 50+. If it’s an increasing variant trend, this may go onto lower values and affect the 30-50 age groups, and so on in a 1918 scenario. We’ll probably see better from data in the next couple of weeks. If this is happening or likely to happen, then it might be prudent to balance better 1st and 2nd jabs rather than concentrate on completing 1st ones as fast as possible. At the moment the ratio is about 25% 1st jabs against 75% 2nd that seem to come into force about 4 weeks ago. Minimal protection against the virus for as many people as possible, rather than ensuring maximum protection for those deemed at risk, may be the only way to fight this.

As for the effectiveness of vaccines, the hospitalisation rate in the UK for covid was about 15%. From the data from people who have had at least one Covid jab up to 10th April, when the vaccination level was 47.3%, this figure has probably reduced to an estimated 8.42%. We have no real way of knowing the effectiveness due lack of reporting of individual circumstances, as information is becoming very sparse, but we can make an estimate of trends. Covid seems to be a threshold illness, so this probably means that vaccinations are probably raising the bar by 50% in general, with the past 15% serious illness of which 10% die giving a mortality of 1.5%, changing to 8.4% serious illness of which 5% die, giving somewhere around a 0.42% mortality.

As of today, 02/05/2021, in the world there have been 153.5 million cases with about an estimated 16.1 million active cases, increasing at +1.98% per day, and 3.22 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.42 million cases and 127,538 deaths. It has an estimated 46,900 known active cases. The US is reporting 33.2 million cases and 591,000 deaths with about 1.21 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.78%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.1%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.89%. About 10.5% of known cases are still active in the world, 1.06% in the UK, 3.6% in the US.

It’s likely 2.95% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.75% of the UK, and 15% of the US.

About 1.15 billion people (14.7%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 37.9 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 21 weeks ago, averaging 347,000 doses a day over this period, but about 517,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 63% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 28% having both doses, 55% in the UK, 44% in the US, and 24% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 15th August 2021, currently about 90% with 1st dose, and all it’s population by 25th December 2021 It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 11th May 2022, and a fourth taking the date to 24th September 2022, and a fifth to 2nd February 2023.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.75% for the world and 1.53% for the UK, the current figures being 1.38% for the world and 0.74% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.5% and the current figure is 0.84%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.33%, for the UK, 0.47-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 02/05/2020 there have been 157.6 million tests conducted in the UK, about 154 million antigen tests and 3.6 million antibody tests, 4.42 million positive of those 92.4 million processed, 4.78%, or 1 in 21 testing positive, 95.22%, 20 out of 21 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 1,750 and 2,750 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 17.2% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.29% of a population and still increasing. 65 countries have infection rates over 5%.

The UK seems to be showing a ‘grumbling’ number of cases where it shouldn’t be grumbling, the numbers probably due to variants appearing due to still increasing numbers of cases and being distributed by continuing travel. A number of countries now have very suspect figures that other countries are aware of and saying nothing. It’s likely that because of this secrecy and manipulation of figures for image, we might find the people of the world are defeated rather than the virus. To paraphrase Mark Twain, “A virus can travel around the world and back again while the truth is lacing up its boots.”

I’ve gone over the data again from the start and worked on just recorded deaths from all causes for the period since the first case in the UK, and the likely start of mortality after this date to todays date. Most non-medical deaths are accidental, and deaths by accidents have fallen by about 5.7% because of lockdowns, so since there is very little climate variance from the past 5 years, these should be correspondingly 94.3% of previous years. You will need to factor in an effective 12 day outcome within each period so that would correspond to about 15 weeks of time lagged lockdown and 54 weeks of restrictive behavior.

Normal variation by years suggestsfor that each mild year, deaths are reducing by 0.5% a year due to inproved mendical care. This works out to a total of about 155,400 deaths in the UK that would not normally be accounted for. Though this is probably a mixture of direct and indirect deaths rather than just the Covid-19 infections.

As of today, 07/05/2021, in the world there have been 157.5 million cases with about an estimated 15.5 million active cases, increasing at +1.98% per day, and 3.28 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.43 million cases and 127,600 deaths. It has an estimated 42,500 known active cases. The US is reporting 33.4 million cases and 595,000 deaths with about 1.06 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.78%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.08%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.88%. About 9.8% of known cases are still active in the world, 0.96% in the UK, 3.17% in the US.

It’s likely 3% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.77% of the UK, and 15.1% of the US.

About 1.24 billion people (15.9%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 38 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 21 weeks ago, averaging 349,000 doses a day over this period, but about 436,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 64% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 30% having both doses, 57% in the UK, 44% in the US, and 26% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 4th September 2021, currently about 91% with 1st dose, and all it’s population by 2nd February 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 8th July 2022, and a fourth taking the date to 11th December 2022, and a fifth to 16th May 2023.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.74% for the world and 1.51% for the UK, the current figures being 1.56% for the world and 0.53% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.49% and the current figure is 0.92%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.33%, for the UK, 0.47-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 07/05/2020 there have been 163.2 million tests conducted in the UK, about 159.6 million antigen tests and 3.6 million antibody tests, 4.43 million positive of those 93.2 million processed, 4.75%, or 1 in 21 testing positive, 95.25%, 20 out of 21 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 1,500 and 2,400 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 17.3% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.29% of a population and still increasing. 66 countries have infection rates over 5%.

I’ve been asked to use my model for a US projection, but a lot of the factors are for the UK, so I’ve modified it to give an estimation of how the numbers should go if there are not widespread outbreaks of new variants in the country.

5th Model for US with Some Adjustments for variants
DateDayCase TrendDeath Trend
05/07/2021Friday46921664
05/08/2021Saturday32929511
05/09/2021Sunday26886278
05/10/2021Monday39262373
05/11/2021Tuesday32001644
05/12/2021Wednesday35198558
05/13/2021Thursday36227648
05/14/2021Friday35452502
05/15/2021Saturday24879386
05/16/2021Sunday20314210
05/17/2021Monday28002266
05/18/2021Tuesday22823460
05/19/2021Wednesday25103398
05/20/2021Thursday25838462
05/21/2021Friday25284358
05/22/2021Saturday17744275
05/23/2021Sunday14488150
05/24/2021Monday18508176
05/25/2021Tuesday15085304
05/26/2021Wednesday16592263
05/27/2021Thursday17077306
05/28/2021Friday16712237
05/29/2021Saturday11728182
05/30/2021Sunday957699
05/31/2021Monday11444109
06/01/2021Tuesday9328188
06/02/2021Wednesday10260163
06/03/2021Thursday10560189
06/04/2021Friday10334146
06/05/2021Saturday7252112
06/06/2021Sunday592161
06/07/2021Monday658863
06/08/2021Tuesday5370108
06/09/2021Wednesday590694
06/10/2021Thursday6079109
06/11/2021Friday594984
06/12/2021Saturday417565
06/13/2021Sunday340935
06/14/2021Monday354034
06/15/2021Tuesday288558
06/16/2021Wednesday317450
06/17/2021Thursday326758
06/18/2021Friday319745
06/19/2021Saturday224335
06/20/2021Sunday183219
06/21/2021Monday177317
06/22/2021Tuesday144529
06/23/2021Wednesday159025
06/24/2021Thursday163629
06/25/2021Friday160123
06/26/2021Saturday112417
06/27/2021Sunday9179
06/28/2021Monday8288
06/29/2021Tuesday67514
06/30/2021Wednesday74312
07/01/2021Thursday76414
07/02/2021Friday74811
07/03/2021Saturday5258
07/04/2021Sunday4294

As of today, 10/05/2021, in the world there have been 159.6 million cases with about an estimated 16.1 million active cases, increasing at +2% per day, and 3.32 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.44 million cases and 127,609 deaths. It has an estimated 43,900 known active cases. The US is reporting 33.5 million cases and 596,100 deaths with about 947,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.78%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.08%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.87%. About 10% of known cases are still active in the world, 0.99% in the UK, 2.82% in the US.

It’s likely 3.1% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.79% of the UK, and 15.2% of the US.

About 1.3 billion people (16.7%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 38 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 22 weeks ago, averaging 349,000 doses a day over this period, but about 458,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 64% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 30% having both doses, 59% in the UK, 46% in the US, and 28% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 1st September 2021, currently about 91% with 1st dose, and all it’s population by 23rd January 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 20th June 2022, and a fourth taking the date to 16th November 2022, and a fifth to 13th April 2023.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.74% for the world and 1.5% for the UK, the current figures being 1.47% for the world and 0.41% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.49% and the current figure is 0.98%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.33%, for the UK, 0.41-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 10/05/2020 there have been 167.2 million tests conducted in the UK, about 163.6 million antigen tests and 3.6 million antibody tests, 4.44 million positive of those 94.3 million processed, 4.71%, or 1 in 21 testing positive, 95.29%, 20 out of 21 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 1,675 and 2,600 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 17.4% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.3% of a population and still increasing. 66 countries have infection rates over 5%.

With the new variants expanding in the UK the reduction in numbers has decreased, so a new estimate of numbers is as below:

5th Model with Adjustments for variants for UK
DateDayCase TrendDeath Trend
11/05/2021Tuesday16213
12/05/2021Wednesday178622
13/05/2021Thursday217712
14/05/2021Friday207412
15/05/2021Saturday17054
16/05/2021Sunday14742
17/05/2021Monday19703
18/05/2021Tuesday13553
19/05/2021Wednesday149319
20/05/2021Thursday181910
21/05/2021Friday173310
22/05/2021Saturday14253
23/05/2021Sunday12321
24/05/2021Monday15393
25/05/2021Tuesday10582
26/05/2021Wednesday116615
27/05/2021Thursday14218
28/05/2021Friday13548
29/05/2021Saturday11133
30/05/2021Sunday9621
31/05/2021Monday11192
01/06/2021Tuesday7702
02/06/2021Wednesday84811
03/06/2021Thursday10346
04/06/2021Friday9856
05/06/2021Saturday8102
06/06/2021Sunday7001
07/06/2021Monday7601
08/06/2021Tuesday5231
09/06/2021Wednesday5767
10/06/2021Thursday7024
11/06/2021Friday6694
12/06/2021Saturday5501
13/06/2021Sunday4751

As of today, 17/05/2021, in the world there have been 164.2 million cases with about an estimated 14.8 million active cases, increasing at +1.88% per day, and 3.4 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.45 million cases and 127,684 deaths. It has an estimated 44,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 33.7 million cases and 600,400 deaths with about 872,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.78%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.07%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.87%. About 9% of known cases are still active in the world, 0.99% in the UK, 2.59% in the US.

It’s likely 3.16% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.82% of the UK, and 15.3% of the US.

About 1.47 billion people (19%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 38 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 23 weeks ago, averaging 357,000 doses a day over this period, but about 498,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 64% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 32% having both doses, 59% in the UK, 47% in the US, and 32% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 30th August 2021, currently about 91% with 1st dose, 49% with second dose, and all it’s population by 10th January 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 26th May 2022, and a fourth taking the date to 10th October 2022, and a fifth to 23rd February 2023.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.73% for the world and 1.48% for the UK, the current figures being 1.42% for the world and 0.48% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.48% and the current figure is 1.06%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.33%, for the UK, 0.36-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 17/05/2020 there have been 171.3 million tests conducted in the UK, about 167.5 million antigen tests and 3.8 million antibody tests, 4.45 million positive of those 94 million processed, 4.94%, or 1 in 20 testing positive, 95.06%, 19 out of 20 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 1,800 and 2,800 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 17.5% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.3% of a population and still increasing. 67 countries have infection rates over 5%.

The UK by Area table is as below:

It shows a continuation of the trend apart from a few blips here and there. The Indian variant, although it seems to be taking over as the dominant strain, doesn’t seem to be having that much of an effect overall in the decrease apart from slowing it down a bit. There is reason to believe that the upturn in cases in some regions may simply be dependent on the percentage of people who are not vaccinated or are refusing to have a vaccine in those areas.

5th Model with Recalculation for variants
DateDayCase TrendDeath Trend
21/05/2021Friday224017
22/05/2021Saturday20697
23/05/2021Sunday19674
24/05/2021Monday20795
25/05/2021Tuesday25347
26/05/2021Wednesday27483
27/05/2021Thursday30198
28/05/2021Friday235318
29/05/2021Saturday21748
30/05/2021Sunday20664
31/05/2021Monday21475
01/06/2021Tuesday26178
02/06/2021Wednesday28383
03/06/2021Thursday31189
04/06/2021Friday243019
05/06/2021Saturday22458
06/06/2021Sunday21344
07/06/2021Monday22366
08/06/2021Tuesday27268
09/06/2021Wednesday29563
10/06/2021Thursday32489
11/06/2021Friday253120
12/06/2021Saturday23388
13/06/2021Sunday22235
14/06/2021Monday23206
15/06/2021Tuesday28278
16/06/2021Wednesday30664
17/06/2021Thursday33699
18/06/2021Friday262520
19/06/2021Saturday24258
20/06/2021Sunday23065
21/06/2021Monday24116
22/06/2021Tuesday29389
23/06/2021Wednesday31874
24/06/2021Thursday350110
25/06/2021Friday272921
26/06/2021Saturday25219
27/06/2021Sunday23975

As of today, 21/05/2021, in the world there have been 166.5 million cases with about an estimated 14.3 million active cases, increasing at +1.87% per day, and 3.46 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.46 million cases and 127,710 deaths. It has an estimated 38,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 33.9 million cases and 603,200 deaths with about 790,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.78%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.08%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.86%. About 8.6% of known cases are still active in the world, 0.85% in the UK, 2.33% in the US.

It’s likely 3.2% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.9% of the UK, and 15.4% of the US.

About 1.5 billion people (19.2%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 38 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 23 weeks ago, averaging 362,000 doses a day over this period, but about 519,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 65% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 34% having both doses, 60% in the UK, 48% in the US, and 34% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 30th August 2021, currently about 91% with 1st dose, 53% with second dose, and all it’s population by 4th January 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 15th May 2022, and a fourth taking the date to 23rd September 2022, and a fifth to 1st February 2023.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.72% for the world and 1.46% for the UK, the current figures being 1.25% for the world and 0.53% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.48% and the current figure is 1.09%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.33%, for the UK, 0.36-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 21/05/2020 there have been 174.6 million tests conducted in the UK, about 170.8 million antigen tests and 3.8 million antibody tests, 4.46 million positive of those 94.9 million processed, 4.7%, or 1 in 21 testing positive, 95.3%, 20 out of 21 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 1,900 and 3,000 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 17.5% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.31% of a population and still increasing. 68 countries have infection rates over 5%.

The drop in cases in the UK has slowed, probably due to the Variant first found in India that seems to be the majority of new cases. So far there has been little evidence of higher infectivity or mortality, or resistance to the current vaccines compared to previous strains 1st found in Kent, Brazil and South Aftrica.

In various countries there seems to be definite interference with the statistics. It seems there are a lot of high up government officials in the world saying, ‘these statistics aren’t acceptable, take them away and come back with better ones.’ Or are altering the basic standard that is being used to give a more favourable impression, with very dubious and suspect motives.

As of today, 25/05/2021, in the world there have been 168.5 million cases with about an estimated 12.7 million active cases, increasing at +1.86% per day, and 3.5 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.47 million cases and 127,739 deaths. It has an estimated 41,500 known active cases. The US is reporting 34 million cases and 605,000 deaths with about 650,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.78%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.08%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.86%. About 7.5% of known cases are still active in the world, 0.93% in the UK, 1.91% in the US.

It’s likely 3.27% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.9% of the UK, and 15.4% of the US.

About 1.7 billion people (21.8%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 38.3 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 24 weeks ago, averaging 367,000 doses a day over this period, but about 577,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 65% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 38% having both doses, 60% in the UK, 49% in the US, and 35% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 24th August 2021, currently about 91% with 1st dose, 64% with second dose, and all it’s population by 16th December 2021. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 13th April 2022, and a fourth taking the date to 9th August 2022, and a fifth to 5th December 2022.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.72% for the world and 1.43% for the UK, the current figures being 1.31% for the world and 0.25% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.47% and the current figure is 1.21%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.33%, for the UK, 0.25-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 25/05/2020 there have been 179.4 million tests conducted in the UK, about 175.5 million antigen tests and 3.9 million antibody tests, 4.47 million positive of those 95.2 million processed, 4.7%, or 1 in 21 testing positive, 95.3%, 20 out of 21 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 2,200 and 3,500 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 17.7% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.31% of a population and still increasing. 68 countries have infection rates over 5%.

The number of cases in the UK don’t seem to be coming down as expected from previous figures. This is probably due to the new variants appearing and becoming dominant earlier than expected. The new variants seem to be more infective than previous versions, and there are signs that mortality is starting to increase again in all areas, following a pattern similar to that of September last year, which is concerning. With the vaccination program continuing, hopefully it should prevent a similar rise to that which happened in the new year, but if uptake of vaccinations is hampered, this could be the result. Another concern is the age groups showing infections, which seems to be showing an impact at a lower age level than before.

As of today, 29/05/2021, in the world there have been 170.6 million cases with about an estimated 11.7 million active cases, increasing at +1.84% per day, and 3.55 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.48 million cases and 127,775 deaths. It has an estimated 43,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 34.2 million cases and 610,000 deaths with about 580,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.78%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.08%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.85%. About 6.9% of known cases are still active in the world, 0.96% in the UK, 1.7% in the US.

It’s likely 3.3% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.9% of the UK, and 15.5% of the US.

About 1.8 billion people (23%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 40 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 25 weeks ago, averaging 375,000 doses a day over this period, but about 662,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 64% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 40% having both doses, 60% in the UK, 50% in the US, and 37% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 21st August 2021, currently about 92% with 1st dose, 67% with second dose, and all it’s population by 5th December 2021. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 24th March 2022, and a fourth taking the date to 11th July 2022, and a fifth to 28th October 2022.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.71% for the world and 1.42% for the UK, the current figures being 1.42% for the world and 0.26% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.47% and the current figure is 1.52%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.33%, for the UK, 0.2-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 29/05/2020 there have been 182.6 million tests conducted in the UK, about 178.6 million antigen tests and 4 million antibody tests, 4.48 million positive of those 97.5 million processed, 4.6%, or 1 in 22 testing positive, 95.4%, 21 out of 22 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 2,400 and 3,800 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 17.7% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.31% of a population and still increasing. 68 countries have infection rates over 5%.

With vaccines, the figures for their effectiveness against current variants of Covid, and mortality rates from the vaccines themselves in the UK gives figures as below:

Case RatesNew CasesMortality
Unvaccinated56.154%2.079%
1 Dose29.832%0.520%
Both Doses14.010%0.208%
Blood Clots from Vaccine0.002%0.001%

If I was to assess the situation in the UK at the moment I would guess that the UK is more successful with its vaccination programme that I expected. New variants are developing and arriving all the time, and so far they have been pretty much similar to the current set of variants, showing less deviation from levels of immunity given from infections and current vaccines. The levels of new cases aren’t coming down as fast as expected, but the mortality is, which shows the current vaccines seem to be working. Lack of uptake may prolong the problem considerably, with people demanding freedoms ensuring by their actions that those freedoms take longer coming. There is less restriction of movement between countries and areas within those countries that there should be, working on whole or nothing limitations, not degrees of risk based on case numbers. If a really bad variant arrives on the scene this free movement of people may prove to be a disaster, but this is only a possibility. On the whole for the UK I think there should be a level of optimism, but this could quickly change if all authorities are not on the ball and quick to adapt to new conditions. Most seem to react to bad events occurring and then acting, rather than doing something to prevent them. A lot of countries only doing what looks good and pleases most people, rather than what is necessary.

The numbers of cases in the UK seem to be rising again at a current rate of about 25-30% per week. But, we must not lose fact of what is important in the form of a disease. We catch on average about 700,000 cases of the cold in the UK a day. The number of deaths from complications from the common cold probably works out to about 4 people a day. Todays number of deaths from Covid was 18. Similarly, with Covid-19, the authorities and scientists shouldn’t lose fact that it is the number of deaths resulting from the infections or the number of hospital cases that is important. The case level is an irritation, but unless it translates into a higher mortality or long term covid effects it’s not so concerning or important compared to the effects happening in the world outside. If the mortality rate also rises in the UK in about 12 days then it is cause for major concern, and another lockdown may be necessary before the end of the year. There are signs though that the variants are changing and affecting younger people more often, so we need to have everybody vaccinated as soon as possible.

The numbers seem to be rising twice as fast for people who have not had a single dose of a vaccine yet, and four times the numbers of those who have had both, but the threshold levels that give severe infections seems to be lowering in age.

As of today, 08/06/2021, in the world there have been 174.7 million cases with about an estimated 9.2 million active cases, increasing at +1.81% per day, and 3.76 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.53 million cases and 127,854 deaths. It has an estimated 76,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 34.3 million cases and 613,000 deaths with about 452,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.79%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.15%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.82%. About 5.3% of known cases are still active in the world, 1.68% in the UK, 1.79% in the US.

It’s likely 3.36% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 10% of the UK, and 15.5% of the US.

About 1.5 billion people (19%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 41 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 26 weeks ago, averaging 378,000 doses a day over this period, but about 589,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 64% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 42% having both doses, 61% in the UK, 51% in the US, and 41% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 23rd September 2021, currently about 94% with 1st dose, 75% with second dose, and all it’s population by 5th February 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 24th June 2022, and a fourth taking the date to 10th November 2022, and a fifth to 30th March 2023.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.73% for the world and 1.38% for the UK, the current figures being 3.63% for the world and 0.41% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.48% and the current figure is 1.69%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-4.48%, for the UK, 0.2-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 08/06/2020 there have been 193.2 million tests conducted in the UK, about 189.2 million antigen tests and 4 million antibody tests, 4.53 million positive of those 100.1 million processed, 4.53%, or 1 in 22 testing positive, 94.7%, 20 out of 21 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 5,600 and 8,700 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 17.8% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.56% of a population and still increasing. 70 countries have infection rates over 5%.

As of today, 19/06/2021, in the world there have been 179 million cases with about an estimated 8.1 million active cases, increasing at +1.78% per day, and 3.88 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.62 million cases and 127,970 deaths. It has an estimated 130,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 34.4 million cases and 617,300 deaths with about 355,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.79%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.17%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.77%. About 4.5% of known cases are still active in the world, 2.8% in the UK, 1% in the US.

It’s likely 3.44% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 10.2% of the UK, and 15.6% of the US.

About 1.6 billion people (21%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 43 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 28 weeks ago, averaging 384,000 doses a day over this period, but about 444,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 64% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 43% having both doses, 62% in the UK, 53% in the US, and 46% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 15th October September 2021, currently about 94% with 1st dose, 80% with second dose, and all it’s population by 13th March 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 13th August 2022, and a fourth taking the date to 13th January 2023, and a fifth to 15th June 2023.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.77% for the world and 1.35% for the UK, the current figures being 1.88% for the world and 0.24% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.48% and the current figure is 1.25%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.19-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 19/06/2020 there have been 201.2 million tests conducted in the UK, about 197.1 million antigen tests and 4.1 million antibody tests, 4.62 million positive of those 104 million processed, 4.44%, or 1 in 23 testing positive, 95.6%, 22 out of 23 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 7,800 and 13,000 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 17.9% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.57% of a population and still increasing. 71 countries have infection rates over 5%.

Covid is an ongoing problem and it’s likely that this is the new norm for the next decade, possibly two. It’s not being sorted in the world, just locally, so it’s like a ball ricocheting around a squash court, each variant being a new hit of the racket. It’s hard to tell from the figures, but reinfection rates for people who have previously had the disease seems to work out around about 20% compared to 14% of those who have had both doses of vaccines, and 30% for those who have had only one dose. So the vaccines seem to be working well against current variants as the infection rate for non-innoculated people is around 56%.

Mortality is a bit more complex if people are exposed or re-exposed to the disease, but on average 2% of the uninnoculated are dying, 0.5% of people with one dose and 0.2% with both doses of vaccines. For the previously infected it seems to work out to about 0.4%. The figures what’s called ‘Long Covid’ work out almost exactly to about 5 times that of mortality, with about 10% of the uninnoculated, 2.4% of people with one dose, and 1% of those with both doses going into the long covid spectrum. For the previously infected who get infected again it seems to work out to about 4%. This doesn’t bode well for an ongoing endemic disease that seems to have the effect of whittling away resistance over possibly the next two decades, each time of reinfection gaining a better hold and affcting the body more.

An estimated effect on longevity if the problem is not sorted worldwide is that it would probably reduce it to 65 years worldwide, and 74 years in developed countries, with every country always trying to do catch-up with vaccinations. At the minimum in the UK I would expect plans for a combined Covid/Flu jab every year. How that would go down with the population is totally unpredictable, herd immunity with all the new variants being allowed to develop through numbers, being uncertain and downwardly variable.

Updated UK Projections:

5th Model with Recalculation for variants
DateDayCase TrendDeath Trend
20/06/2021Sunday1117412
21/06/2021Monday110004
22/06/2021Tuesday1090214
23/06/2021Wednesday1286613
24/06/2021Thursday1563927
25/06/2021Friday1488516
26/06/2021Saturday1466520
27/06/2021Sunday1587717
28/06/2021Monday152326
29/06/2021Tuesday1509620
30/06/2021Wednesday1781518
01/07/2021Thursday2165537
02/07/2021Friday2061122
03/07/2021Saturday2030628
04/07/2021Sunday2198423
05/07/2021Monday213678
06/07/2021Tuesday2117628
07/07/2021Wednesday2499025
08/07/2021Thursday3037752
09/07/2021Friday2891230
10/07/2021Saturday2848439
11/07/2021Sunday3083833

Updated US Projections:

5th Model for US with Some Adjustments for variants
DateDayCase TrendDeath Trend
06/20/2021Sunday7313116
06/21/2021Monday10253218
06/22/2021Tuesday14063434
06/23/2021Wednesday13074397
06/24/2021Thursday10348268
06/25/2021Friday12338362
06/26/2021Saturday7202235
06/27/2021Sunday6738107
06/28/2021Monday9345199
06/29/2021Tuesday12817396
06/30/2021Wednesday11916362
07/01/2021Thursday9431244
07/02/2021Friday11245330
07/03/2021Saturday6564214
07/04/2021Sunday614197
07/05/2021Monday8713186
07/06/2021Tuesday11950369
07/07/2021Wednesday11110337
07/08/2021Thursday8794228
07/09/2021Friday10484308
07/10/2021Saturday6120200
07/11/2021Sunday572691

I did a comment in the Telegraph today, Telegraph Article, Fear over freedom: Here’s what the doom-laden government graphs didn’t show us

This is what I said:

The government is playing it cautious. If you look at the figures for people being infected with the latest variant it works out to 56% of cases are from people who haven’t had a vaccine, 30% from people who have had one dose and 14% from people who have had both doses. Since about 40% of people still haven’t had one dose, the UK is still at a risk from a concentration of numbers. The illness is based on thresholds and concentrations of infected people around you, vaccines raising the bar at which each is passed, death being on the top threshold, Long Covid being the level below, and hospitalisation below that, mostly being controlled by age and infirmity. The government is being called all sorts of things by the people who demand getting back to the world they knew before, but would be the first and same people lambasting them for releasing too early if things went wrong. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t, but we probably have it for the next decade.

Covid isn’t over by a long way. It won’t be until it’s sorted out worldwide and by the world, with the good chance that at some time a ‘1918’ version will appear. This was evident from about mid-January 2020. With numbers still continuing around the world, probably about 8 million people still having the disease and infecting a similar number each month. There is ample opportunity for this to happen at some time, it just being luck that each country doesn’t receive early cases and close for business. Because of this a lot of the inter country restrictions are political point scoring, the disease already having arrived, so bolting the stable door after the horse has bolted, run down to the next village, started a family, and has foals at the local school. The various lists are pretty much useless unless all movement is banned; sooner or later it will arrive, hopefully later.

Numbers are rising; deaths are not in proportion, showing that a cautious advantage and victory is to be had at the moment from the vaccinations, but from the latest delta variant the numbers and proportions have changed, so the new mortality rate of 2% for the unvaccinated, 0.5% for the 1st dose and 0.2% for both is not fixed. Most of the new cases are in the young, and they have a very low level of risk, but they will age and get ill, so if it’s not sorted globally, they will come into the provinces of risk at some time. Not today, but a decades time.

I’m not a Tory, and I’m not a conspiracist, always having considering Boris a bit of a buffoon, but I must admit he gained my respect in dealing with this ‘poisoned chalice’ and his experts in trying to keep us safe. Probably if any other leader was in charge they would have done worse, and the numbers would be at least double. But you can be too cautious, too long. And I’m expecting cancer and other deaths to expand in the next few years. We won’t know the effects on life expectancy for decades, but I expect that most of the last 50 years medical advances that contribute to this may be wiped out.

I forgot to add, the risks to those who have had the disease already seems to be about twice the risk of those who have had both doses of a vaccine with catching it again, and three times the risk of long covid or dying from it if caught again.

As of today, 26/06/2021, in the world there have been 181.7 million cases with about an estimated 7.6 million active cases, increasing at +1.75% per day, and 3.93 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.71 million cases and 128,086 deaths. It has an estimated 189,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 34.5 million cases and 619,306 deaths with about 373,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.8%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.16%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.72%. About 4.2% of known cases are still active in the world, 4% in the UK, 1.1% in the US.

It’s likely 3.49% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 10.4% of the UK, and 15.6% of the US.

About 1.7 billion people (21%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 44 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 29 weeks ago, averaging 382,000 doses a day over this period, but about 369,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 64% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 45% having both doses, 65% in the UK, 54% in the US, and 49% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 15th November September 2021, currently about 94% with 1st dose, 85% with second dose, and all it’s population by 13th May 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 13th November 2022, and a fourth taking the date to 16th May 2023, and a fifth to 16th November 2023.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.78% for the world and 1.32% for the UK, the current figures being 1.82% for the world and 0.16% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.49% and the current figure is 2.16%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.16-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 26/06/2020 there have been 207.9 million tests conducted in the UK, about 203.7 million antigen tests and 4.2 million antibody tests, 4.71 million positive of those 106.2 million processed, 4.44%, or 1 in 23 testing positive, 95.6%, 22 out of 23 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 11,000 and 17,500 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 17.9% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.57% of a population and still increasing. 71 countries have infection rates over 5%.

The reducing backtracked mortality in the UK suggests that the vaccination program for the current set of variants seems to be working well.

Rankings How Well is Each Country DoingThe higher the number the betterThe earlier in the table the worse
Order in Deaths using UK Equivalent
Order in Mortality if you catch CovidOrder in Cases using UK Equivalent
CountryOrder No.CountryOrder No CasesCountryOrder No. Deaths
Bosnia and Herzegovina13Andorra1Peru1
Bulgaria15Czechia3Hungary2
Hungary21San Marino6Bosnia and Herzegovina3
Slovakia31Gibraltar8Czechia4
Romania34Slovenia9Gibraltar5
Greece36Luxembourg10San Marino6
Italy37Sweden11Bulgaria8
Australia38Lithuania14Slovakia11
UK44USA15Belgium12
Poland49Estonia17Slovenia13
Germany53Netherlands18Italy14
Ukraine59Belgium20Croatia17
Belgium62Israel23Poland18
Croatia64France25UK19
Gibraltar67Croatia26USA20
Spain70Portugal27Romania22
Channel Islands74Hungary29Spain23
Portugal78Serbia30France25
Liechtenstein79Spain31Portugal26
France80Switzerland33Andorra28
Canada81Liechtenstein37Lithuania29
Japan83Poland39Liechtenstein31
Ireland84Latvia43Sweden35
Latvia85Austria45Latvia37
Czechia86Slovakia46Luxembourg39
Isle of Man87Italy47Switzerland40
USA88UK50Greece42
San Marino91Malta51Ukraine43
Slovenia95Monaco53Austria45
Austria98Turkey55Germany47
Lithuania108Bosnia and Herzegovina56Netherlands48
Switzerland111Cyprus60Ireland49
Malta119Bulgaria62Estonia53
Sweden122Romania68Malta54
S. Korea127Ireland69Russia56
Monaco130Ukraine70Monaco60
Luxembourg138Denmark71Serbia62
Netherlands149Germany74Israel66
Finland153Greece77Canada67
Serbia156Russia80Turkey76
Estonia157Canada82Channel Islands86
New Zealand159Channel Islands102Denmark94
Turkey161Norway103Isle of Man101
Andorra162Iceland110Belarus102
Denmark165Isle of Man112Cyprus103
Israel170Finland114Finland118
Belarus171Singapore129Norway127
Norway183Japan138Japan130
Cyprus189S. Korea152Iceland140
Iceland192Australia182S. Korea155
Singapore206New Zealand196Australia158
Mauritius183
Singapore197
New Zealand199

As of today, 03/07/2021, in the world there have been 184.2 million cases with about an estimated 7.7 million active cases, increasing at +1.74% per day, and 4 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.88 million cases and 128,200 deaths. It has an estimated 304,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 34.6 million cases and 621,500 deaths with about 264,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.8%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.19%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.63%. About 4.2% of known cases are still active in the world, 6.2% in the UK, 0.7% in the US.

It’s likely 3.5% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 10.8% of the UK, and 15.7% of the US.

About 1.8 billion people (28%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 46 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 30 weeks ago, 32.8 million for the second dose, averaging 382,000 doses a day over this period, but about 324,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 65% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 48% having both doses, 65% in Canada, 30% both, 68% in the UK, 48% both, 54% in the US, 43% both, and 51% in the EU, 33% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 11th December 2021, currently about 95% with 1st dose, 86% with second dose, and all it’s population by 3rd July 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 28th January 2023, and a fourth taking the date to 25th August 2023, and a fifth to 22nd March 2024.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.78% for the world and 1.29% for the UK, the current figures being 2.09% for the world and 0.2% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.49% and the current figure is 1.62%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.16-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 03/07/2020 there have been 214.8 million tests conducted in the UK, about 210.6 million antigen tests and 4.2 million antibody tests, 4.88 million positive of those 107 million processed, 4.56%, or 1 in 22 testing positive, 95.44%, 21 out of 22 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 19,700 and 31,000 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 18% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.58% of a population and still increasing. 72 countries have infection rates over 5%.

The Delta variant is expanding quite quickly in the UK, being now present in most countries of the world.

If circumstances don’t change then the trends for the UK are as below:

5th Model with Recalculation for variants
DateDayCase TrendDeath Trend
03/07/2021Saturday2647233
04/07/2021Sunday2155416
05/07/2021Monday371095
06/07/2021Tuesday3323337
07/07/2021Wednesday4230223
08/07/2021Thursday4542036
09/07/2021Friday4401844
10/07/2021Saturday4295854
11/07/2021Sunday3497826
12/07/2021Monday608808
13/07/2021Tuesday5452061
14/07/2021Wednesday6939937
15/07/2021Thursday7451459
16/07/2021Friday7221372
17/07/2021Saturday7047589
18/07/2021Sunday5738342
19/07/2021Monday9933613
20/07/2021Tuesday88958100
21/07/2021Wednesday11323661
22/07/2021Thursday12158196
23/07/2021Friday117828117
24/07/2021Saturday114991145
25/07/2021Sunday9362969

Projections for the US are as below: Got the US dates wrong so here are the updated projections:

5th Model for US with Some Adjustments for variants
DateDayCase TrendDeath Trend
07/06/2021Tuesday12125312
07/07/2021Wednesday15064264
07/08/2021Thursday17984334
07/09/2021Friday19523342
07/10/2021Saturday8465102
07/11/2021Sunday442440
07/12/2021Monday465724
07/13/2021Tuesday12817330
07/14/2021Wednesday15924279
07/15/2021Thursday19011353
07/16/2021Friday20638361
07/17/2021Saturday8949108
07/18/2021Sunday467643
07/19/2021Monday473725
07/20/2021Tuesday13040335
07/21/2021Wednesday16200284
07/22/2021Thursday19341359
07/23/2021Friday20995367
07/24/2021Saturday9104110
07/25/2021Sunday475743

As of today, 07/07/2021, in the world there have been 185.8 million cases with about an estimated 7.4 million active cases, increasing at +1.73% per day, and 4.02 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 5 million cases and 128,301 deaths. It has an estimated 390,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 34.6 million cases and 621,800 deaths with about 257,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.8%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.16%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.57%. About 4% of known cases are still active in the world, 7.8% in the UK, 0.7% in the US.

It’s likely 3.6% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 11% of the UK, and 15.7% of the US.

With recalculation about 1.9 billion people (24%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 46 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 30 weeks ago, 33.4 million for the second dose, averaging 377,000 doses a day over this period, but about 275,000 a day at the moment. This is a consistently lower level than previous weeks, as have been for weeks previous to that, so either people in the UK are not coming forward for the vaccines, they are becoming limited in supply, or a mixtue of both. It’s now said that 66% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 50% having both doses, 69% in Canada, 30% both, 68% in the UK, 50% both, 55% in the US, 44% both, and 53% in the EU, 42% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 13th January 2022, currently about 95% with 1st dose, 90% with second dose, and all it’s population by 10th September 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 15th May 2023, and a fourth taking the date to 17th January 2024, and a fifth to 20th September 2024.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.78% for the world and 1.27% for the UK, the current figures being 1.97% for the world and 0.15% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.49% and the current figure is 2.04%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.14-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 07/07/2020 there have been 221.2 million tests conducted in the UK, about 216.9 million antigen tests and 4.3 million antibody tests, 5 million positive of those 109.5 million processed, 4.57%, or 1 in 22 testing positive, 95.43%, 21 out of 22 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 29.500 and 46,000 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 18.1% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.58% of a population and still increasing. 72 countries have infection rates over 5%.

The UK seems to be showing a consistent 50% rise in cases per week for over the past 6 weeks, the equivalent mortality from those cases recorded about 12 days later, mainly of the Delta variant, rising at a rate of 40% per week. The mortality though, compared to previous periods works out to about 0.2% compared to 2% for the unvaccinated population. This is offset by the infectivity of the Delta Variant that from previous waves was around 30% increase per week. The level of infections is probably due to the concentration of the total numbers involved in the proximity, so I would hazard a guess that things may become severe in August/September as over a 2 month unrestricted period cases may rise to 8-10 times previous levels, giving an overall effect of an equal number of deaths in the UK population overall as previous peaks. The effects on an unvaccinated elderly skewed population doesn’t bear thinking about.

Unless inter-country transfers are banned for all sections of all countries and internally, it’s probably academic whether attempts at restricting populations from any country has an effect. Sooner or later the variants will arrive, the virus not really understanding the difference between a German, a British, or an American person infecting somebody from another country, or being infected by a person from one of those countries, rich or poor. The UK is being watched as a test bed, but figures from Israel are less than encouraging for the long term efficacy of prior infections, single dose, and double vaccines.

I haven’t really changed my opinion that the world probably has the virus for at least a decade maybe two, and that without planning to sort out the problem worldwide as a whole, all that can be achieved is a temporary holding pattern, with the virus cycling around each country as each new replacement variant takes over. We can only hope that during this time an equivalent 1918 variant doesn’t develop that targets the young, as each variant is fast tracked for evolution with a partially vaccinated population, the same way that antibiotic resistant bacteria, and anti-malarial drug resistent varieties have developed as an evolutionary step to the change in their environment, only the stronger versions surviving.

According to the latest government information it seems that the UK is very close to herd immunity, the same as the previous claim in July 2020. The problem is nobody seems to be telling Covid this, the numbers now increasing at an alarming rate, everybody waiting to see if the deaths start climbing too. We are currently at about 7.4%, with probably 50% of people not aware they have been infected due to a young healthy age, so the likely level is around 11% of people in the UK have been fully exposed to the virus. Add about 50% of people have been vaccinated with some overlap suggests around 56%. This is similar to other countries that have similar pattern vaccination rates, but over twice the number of similar pattern case rates. The claim is based on 90% of people testing positive for antibodies, but what is not being considered is the mechanics of the outbreak, which seem to be on threshold levels, but it is highly likely that during the past 17 months at some time you will have been exposed to the virus, not enough to produce the disease or infect you, but enough for your body to produce antibodies in a limited fashion.

The effectiveness against future infections is about 50% for the unvaccinated, 70% for one dose of a vaccine or prior infection, and 85% for bose doses of a vaccine against past variants. From Israel we are finding that the Pfizer vaccine seems to be about 50% effective against the Delta variant that has taken over as the lead variant, itself being about 30% more transmissable, so probably the figure is similar for the other vaccines changing the effectiveness’ to 38% for the unvaccinated, 54% for one dose of a vaccine or prior infection and 65% for bose doses of a vaccine against past variants.

We can hope the UK is nearing herd immunity as the models claim, but I don’t think I will relax my precautions just yet on the experts say so. My guess is we need a minimum of twice what it is at the moment when comparing us to other countries, and may be as high as four times this required, if it is ever reached, given the chance of a forced evolution through incomplete world vaccination levels. My guess would be that we are still at the start of the beginning and that the models are full of confirmation bias. Deciding on a theory and outcome, then looking at results in a way that confirms this. For the past 6 weeks we have been seeing a rise of about 50% in cases per week, and deaths at about 30% a week. This is real world data.

Calculation for the incidence of Long Covid works out to about 3.7 times the mortality rate for a country.

As of today, 10/07/2021, in the world there have been 187.3 million cases with about an estimated 8.3 million active cases, increasing at +1.71% per day, and 4.04 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 5.1 million cases and 128,400 deaths. It has an estimated 460,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 34.7 million cases and 623,100 deaths with about 310,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.8%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.16%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.52%. About 4.4% of known cases are still active in the world, 9% in the UK, 0.9% in the US.

It’s likely 3.6% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 11.3% of the UK, and 15.7% of the US.

After recalculations, its estimated that about 2 billion people (26%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. Due to new information and sources, past pages calculations probably need to be reduced by 51%. An estimated 46 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 31 weeks ago, 34 million for the second dose, averaging 375,000 doses a day over this period, but about 256,000 a day at the moment. This is a consistently lower level than previous weeks, as have been for weeks previous to that, so either people in the UK are not coming forward for the vaccines, they are becoming limited in supply, or a mixtue of both. It’s now said that 66% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 51% having both doses, 69% in Canada, 31% both, 68% in the UK, 51% both, 55% in the US, 45% both, and 54% in the EU, 43% both. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 30th January 2022, currently about 95% with 1st dose, 91% with second dose, and all it’s population by 15th October 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 7th July 2023, and a fourth taking the date to 28th March 2024, and a fifth to 19th December 2024.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.78% for the world and 1.26% for the UK, the current figures being 1.89% for the world and 0.15% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.5% and the current figure is 1.83%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-4.65%, for the UK, 0.14-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 10/07/2020 there have been 222.9 million tests conducted in the UK, about 218.6 million antigen tests and 4.3 million antibody tests, 5.1 million positive of those 111.5 million processed, 4.57%, or 1 in 22 testing positive, 95.43%, 21 out of 22 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 27,000 and 42,000 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 18.2% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.58% of a population and still increasing. 72 countries have infection rates over 5%.

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