Coronavirus Risks 8 (SARS-CoV-2)

I’ve been following the virus for 74 weeks now now. Originally I thought that it would be very limited, but that changed about 72 weeks ago, when the numbers began to rise and we found out more about it. The infected seem to consist of a lot that are in recovery, official active cases currently 8.8%, being recently adujusted, but more likely 7%, increasing at a rate of 0.7% per day, but does’t seem to push the continuity risk to the average population above around about 2% mortality if you contract the disease. Actual numbers are probably about 1.5X the recorded ones for cases, a figure that comes from about 3 billion tests being taken on about 19% of the worlds population, 30 countries now having tested all of their population. Its likely that we are seeing the effects of various mutations in countries rather than a single one. The rate has been pretty consistent since most countries locked down and the effects of this took place since May 2020. There was a lull in figures, but that was probably due to countries finally getting around to working out the statistics, but the numbers are starting to rise in the world again in proportion, so it suggests more potent variants are starting to appear and replace the previous ones we know and are guarding against. The moving average of active and infective cases suggest that the world as a whole under lockdown has an ‘R’ rate of about 1.03, so there is little chance of it being controlled even with current vaccines for at least 10 months, possibly years if the logistics are wrong. Currently the numbers will probably double every 21 weeks and keep on reoccurring or inititiating in each country. Given mutations by numbers, it is probable that any country will need to stay in lockdown and isolate for the next couple of years to avoid it. Since circumstances have not changed much over the last 12 months the likelihood of catching the disease is therefore now probably around 90% at some time, so all that can probably be done is to manage and delay. There have been at least 14 major variants that have occurred in the first 170 million cases (2.2%) over a period of 20 months, of which 9 are worrying in respect of vaccines and long term immunity. The Variant first identified in India is becoming commonplace in the UK, and seems to be replacing the current variant, and new variants first found in Thailand and Vietnam are concerning, the latter possibly a combination of the Indian and Kent variants imported, but being much more infective. None of the variants are particular to any country, just being where they were first identified, and it’s likely that any attempts to prevent a country receiving cases is just political, unless bans on movement is applied to all countries and all travellers. Probably by the time a ban is instituted it has already arrived.

Current Status:

This is a continuation of Coronavirus Risks 7, Coronavirus Risks 6, a continuation of the original posts, Coronavirus Risks 5, Coronavirus Risks 4, Coronavirus Risks 3, Coronavirus Risks and Coronavirus Risks 2 that were also getting a bit long.

An updated estimate based on recent figures is as below:

5th Model with Adjustments for variants
DateDayCase TrendDeath Trend
23/04/2021Friday195226
24/04/2021Saturday165826
25/04/2021Sunday14158
26/04/2021Monday24673
27/04/2021Tuesday210227
28/04/2021Wednesday199418
29/04/2021Thursday232915
30/04/2021Friday162521
01/05/2021Saturday138122
02/05/2021Sunday11786
03/05/2021Monday18993
04/05/2021Tuesday161821
05/05/2021Wednesday153514
06/05/2021Thursday179312
07/05/2021Friday125116
08/05/2021Saturday106317
09/05/2021Sunday9075
10/05/2021Monday13692
11/05/2021Tuesday116615
12/05/2021Wednesday110710
13/05/2021Thursday12938
14/05/2021Friday90212
15/05/2021Saturday76612
16/05/2021Sunday6543
17/05/2021Monday9191
18/05/2021Tuesday78310
19/05/2021Wednesday7437
20/05/2021Thursday8676
21/05/2021Friday6058
22/05/2021Saturday5148
23/05/2021Sunday4392

As of today, 30/04/2021, in the world there have been 152 million cases with about an estimated 16.1 million active cases, increasing at +1.97% per day, and 3.19 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.42 million cases and 127,517 deaths. It has an estimated 48,600 known active cases. The US is reporting 33.1 million cases and 590,000 deaths with about 1.24 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.78%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.1%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.89%. About 10.6% of known cases are still active in the world, 1.1% in the UK, 3.75% in the US.

It’s likely 2.92% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.75% of the UK, and 15% of the US.

About 1.1 billion people (14.1%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 37.2 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 20 weeks ago, averaging 345,000 doses a day over this period, but about 526,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 63% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 27% having both doses, 55% in the UK, 43.5% in the US, and 23% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 7th August 2021, currently about 89% with 1st dose, and all it’s population by 11th December 2021 It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 19th April 2022, and a fourth taking the date to 26th August 2022.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.75% for the world and 1.53% for the UK, the current figures being 1.5% for the world and 1.27% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.51% and the current figure is 0.87%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.33%, for the UK, 0.47-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 30/04/2020 there have been 157.6 million tests conducted in the UK, about 154 million antigen tests and 3.6 million antibody tests, 4.42 million positive of those 92.1 million processed, 4.8%, or 1 in 21 testing positive, 95.2%, 20 out of 21 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 1,700 and 2,700 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 17.1% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.29% of a population and still increasing. 64 countries have infection rates over 5%.

I think it likely that if countries in the world continue not to vaccinate their populations as a whole, then lockdowns will probably continue for the next decade, the virus for possibly two, and it is just a matter of time before a severe variants gets into those countries. Many countries are still allowing mass superspreader events to take place.

From the recent data for the UK there is a worrying trend that seems to be happening. The figures could just be a blip, but there seems to be evidence of new strains in the UK that are more resistant to the vaccines. It may just be that with the over confidence that everything is getting back to normal, people are relaxing the standards they have previously kept to. Or it may just be due to the increase in testing catching more of the people that were previously overlooked, but if the trend continues it may point to people in the 40-60 age groups becoming more susceptible, rather than mainly the 50+. If it’s an increasing variant trend, this may go onto lower values and affect the 30-50 age groups, and so on in a 1918 scenario. We’ll probably see better from data in the next couple of weeks. If this is happening or likely to happen, then it might be prudent to balance better 1st and 2nd jabs rather than concentrate on completing 1st ones as fast as possible. At the moment the ratio is about 25% 1st jabs against 75% 2nd that seem to come into force about 4 weeks ago. Minimal protection against the virus for as many people as possible, rather than ensuring maximum protection for those deemed at risk, may be the only way to fight this.

As for the effectiveness of vaccines, the hospitalisation rate in the UK for covid was about 15%. From the data from people who have had at least one Covid jab up to 10th April, when the vaccination level was 47.3%, this figure has probably reduced to an estimated 8.42%. We have no real way of knowing the effectiveness due lack of reporting of individual circumstances, as information is becoming very sparse, but we can make an estimate of trends. Covid seems to be a threshold illness, so this probably means that vaccinations are probably raising the bar by 50% in general, with the past 15% serious illness of which 10% die giving a mortality of 1.5%, changing to 8.4% serious illness of which 5% die, giving somewhere around a 0.42% mortality.

As of today, 02/05/2021, in the world there have been 153.5 million cases with about an estimated 16.1 million active cases, increasing at +1.98% per day, and 3.22 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.42 million cases and 127,538 deaths. It has an estimated 46,900 known active cases. The US is reporting 33.2 million cases and 591,000 deaths with about 1.21 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.78%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.1%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.89%. About 10.5% of known cases are still active in the world, 1.06% in the UK, 3.6% in the US.

It’s likely 2.95% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.75% of the UK, and 15% of the US.

About 1.15 billion people (14.7%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 37.9 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 21 weeks ago, averaging 347,000 doses a day over this period, but about 517,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 63% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 28% having both doses, 55% in the UK, 44% in the US, and 24% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 15th August 2021, currently about 90% with 1st dose, and all it’s population by 25th December 2021 It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 11th May 2022, and a fourth taking the date to 24th September 2022, and a fifth to 2nd February 2023.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.75% for the world and 1.53% for the UK, the current figures being 1.38% for the world and 0.74% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.5% and the current figure is 0.84%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.33%, for the UK, 0.47-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 02/05/2020 there have been 157.6 million tests conducted in the UK, about 154 million antigen tests and 3.6 million antibody tests, 4.42 million positive of those 92.4 million processed, 4.78%, or 1 in 21 testing positive, 95.22%, 20 out of 21 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 1,750 and 2,750 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 17.2% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.29% of a population and still increasing. 65 countries have infection rates over 5%.

The UK seems to be showing a ‘grumbling’ number of cases where it shouldn’t be grumbling, the numbers probably due to variants appearing due to still increasing numbers of cases and being distributed by continuing travel. A number of countries now have very suspect figures that other countries are aware of and saying nothing. It’s likely that because of this secrecy and manipulation of figures for image, we might find the people of the world are defeated rather than the virus. To paraphrase Mark Twain, “A virus can travel around the world and back again while the truth is lacing up its boots.”

I’ve gone over the data again from the start and worked on just recorded deaths from all causes for the period since the first case in the UK, and the likely start of mortality after this date to todays date. Most non-medical deaths are accidental, and deaths by accidents have fallen by about 5.7% because of lockdowns, so since there is very little climate variance from the past 5 years, these should be correspondingly 94.3% of previous years. You will need to factor in an effective 12 day outcome within each period so that would correspond to about 15 weeks of time lagged lockdown and 54 weeks of restrictive behavior.

Normal variation by years suggestsfor that each mild year, deaths are reducing by 0.5% a year due to inproved mendical care. This works out to a total of about 155,400 deaths in the UK that would not normally be accounted for. Though this is probably a mixture of direct and indirect deaths rather than just the Covid-19 infections.

As of today, 07/05/2021, in the world there have been 157.5 million cases with about an estimated 15.5 million active cases, increasing at +1.98% per day, and 3.28 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.43 million cases and 127,600 deaths. It has an estimated 42,500 known active cases. The US is reporting 33.4 million cases and 595,000 deaths with about 1.06 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.78%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.08%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.88%. About 9.8% of known cases are still active in the world, 0.96% in the UK, 3.17% in the US.

It’s likely 3% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.77% of the UK, and 15.1% of the US.

About 1.24 billion people (15.9%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 38 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 21 weeks ago, averaging 349,000 doses a day over this period, but about 436,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 64% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 30% having both doses, 57% in the UK, 44% in the US, and 26% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 4th September 2021, currently about 91% with 1st dose, and all it’s population by 2nd February 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 8th July 2022, and a fourth taking the date to 11th December 2022, and a fifth to 16th May 2023.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.74% for the world and 1.51% for the UK, the current figures being 1.56% for the world and 0.53% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.49% and the current figure is 0.92%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.33%, for the UK, 0.47-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 07/05/2020 there have been 163.2 million tests conducted in the UK, about 159.6 million antigen tests and 3.6 million antibody tests, 4.43 million positive of those 93.2 million processed, 4.75%, or 1 in 21 testing positive, 95.25%, 20 out of 21 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 1,500 and 2,400 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 17.3% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.29% of a population and still increasing. 66 countries have infection rates over 5%.

I’ve been asked to use my model for a US projection, but a lot of the factors are for the UK, so I’ve modified it to give an estimation of how the numbers should go if there are not widespread outbreaks of new variants in the country.

5th Model for US with Some Adjustments for variants
DateDayCase TrendDeath Trend
05/07/2021Friday46921664
05/08/2021Saturday32929511
05/09/2021Sunday26886278
05/10/2021Monday39262373
05/11/2021Tuesday32001644
05/12/2021Wednesday35198558
05/13/2021Thursday36227648
05/14/2021Friday35452502
05/15/2021Saturday24879386
05/16/2021Sunday20314210
05/17/2021Monday28002266
05/18/2021Tuesday22823460
05/19/2021Wednesday25103398
05/20/2021Thursday25838462
05/21/2021Friday25284358
05/22/2021Saturday17744275
05/23/2021Sunday14488150
05/24/2021Monday18508176
05/25/2021Tuesday15085304
05/26/2021Wednesday16592263
05/27/2021Thursday17077306
05/28/2021Friday16712237
05/29/2021Saturday11728182
05/30/2021Sunday957699
05/31/2021Monday11444109
06/01/2021Tuesday9328188
06/02/2021Wednesday10260163
06/03/2021Thursday10560189
06/04/2021Friday10334146
06/05/2021Saturday7252112
06/06/2021Sunday592161
06/07/2021Monday658863
06/08/2021Tuesday5370108
06/09/2021Wednesday590694
06/10/2021Thursday6079109
06/11/2021Friday594984
06/12/2021Saturday417565
06/13/2021Sunday340935
06/14/2021Monday354034
06/15/2021Tuesday288558
06/16/2021Wednesday317450
06/17/2021Thursday326758
06/18/2021Friday319745
06/19/2021Saturday224335
06/20/2021Sunday183219
06/21/2021Monday177317
06/22/2021Tuesday144529
06/23/2021Wednesday159025
06/24/2021Thursday163629
06/25/2021Friday160123
06/26/2021Saturday112417
06/27/2021Sunday9179
06/28/2021Monday8288
06/29/2021Tuesday67514
06/30/2021Wednesday74312
07/01/2021Thursday76414
07/02/2021Friday74811
07/03/2021Saturday5258
07/04/2021Sunday4294

As of today, 10/05/2021, in the world there have been 159.6 million cases with about an estimated 16.1 million active cases, increasing at +2% per day, and 3.32 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.44 million cases and 127,609 deaths. It has an estimated 43,900 known active cases. The US is reporting 33.5 million cases and 596,100 deaths with about 947,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.78%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.08%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.87%. About 10% of known cases are still active in the world, 0.99% in the UK, 2.82% in the US.

It’s likely 3.1% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.79% of the UK, and 15.2% of the US.

About 1.3 billion people (16.7%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 38 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 22 weeks ago, averaging 349,000 doses a day over this period, but about 458,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 64% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 30% having both doses, 59% in the UK, 46% in the US, and 28% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 1st September 2021, currently about 91% with 1st dose, and all it’s population by 23rd January 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 20th June 2022, and a fourth taking the date to 16th November 2022, and a fifth to 13th April 2023.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.74% for the world and 1.5% for the UK, the current figures being 1.47% for the world and 0.41% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.49% and the current figure is 0.98%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.33%, for the UK, 0.41-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 10/05/2020 there have been 167.2 million tests conducted in the UK, about 163.6 million antigen tests and 3.6 million antibody tests, 4.44 million positive of those 94.3 million processed, 4.71%, or 1 in 21 testing positive, 95.29%, 20 out of 21 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 1,675 and 2,600 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 17.4% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.3% of a population and still increasing. 66 countries have infection rates over 5%.

With the new variants expanding in the UK the reduction in numbers has decreased, so a new estimate of numbers is as below:

5th Model with Adjustments for variants for UK
DateDayCase TrendDeath Trend
11/05/2021Tuesday16213
12/05/2021Wednesday178622
13/05/2021Thursday217712
14/05/2021Friday207412
15/05/2021Saturday17054
16/05/2021Sunday14742
17/05/2021Monday19703
18/05/2021Tuesday13553
19/05/2021Wednesday149319
20/05/2021Thursday181910
21/05/2021Friday173310
22/05/2021Saturday14253
23/05/2021Sunday12321
24/05/2021Monday15393
25/05/2021Tuesday10582
26/05/2021Wednesday116615
27/05/2021Thursday14218
28/05/2021Friday13548
29/05/2021Saturday11133
30/05/2021Sunday9621
31/05/2021Monday11192
01/06/2021Tuesday7702
02/06/2021Wednesday84811
03/06/2021Thursday10346
04/06/2021Friday9856
05/06/2021Saturday8102
06/06/2021Sunday7001
07/06/2021Monday7601
08/06/2021Tuesday5231
09/06/2021Wednesday5767
10/06/2021Thursday7024
11/06/2021Friday6694
12/06/2021Saturday5501
13/06/2021Sunday4751

As of today, 17/05/2021, in the world there have been 164.2 million cases with about an estimated 14.8 million active cases, increasing at +1.88% per day, and 3.4 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.45 million cases and 127,684 deaths. It has an estimated 44,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 33.7 million cases and 600,400 deaths with about 872,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.78%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.07%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.87%. About 9% of known cases are still active in the world, 0.99% in the UK, 2.59% in the US.

It’s likely 3.16% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.82% of the UK, and 15.3% of the US.

About 1.47 billion people (19%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 38 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 23 weeks ago, averaging 357,000 doses a day over this period, but about 498,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 64% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 32% having both doses, 59% in the UK, 47% in the US, and 32% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 30th August 2021, currently about 91% with 1st dose, 49% with second dose, and all it’s population by 10th January 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 26th May 2022, and a fourth taking the date to 10th October 2022, and a fifth to 23rd February 2023.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.73% for the world and 1.48% for the UK, the current figures being 1.42% for the world and 0.48% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.48% and the current figure is 1.06%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.33%, for the UK, 0.36-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 17/05/2020 there have been 171.3 million tests conducted in the UK, about 167.5 million antigen tests and 3.8 million antibody tests, 4.45 million positive of those 94 million processed, 4.94%, or 1 in 20 testing positive, 95.06%, 19 out of 20 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 1,800 and 2,800 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 17.5% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.3% of a population and still increasing. 67 countries have infection rates over 5%.

The UK by Area table is as below:

It shows a continuation of the trend apart from a few blips here and there. The Indian variant, although it seems to be taking over as the dominant strain, doesn’t seem to be having that much of an effect overall in the decrease apart from slowing it down a bit. There is reason to believe that the upturn in cases in some regions may simply be dependent on the percentage of people who are not vaccinated or are refusing to have a vaccine in those areas.

5th Model with Recalculation for variants
DateDayCase TrendDeath Trend
21/05/2021Friday224017
22/05/2021Saturday20697
23/05/2021Sunday19674
24/05/2021Monday20795
25/05/2021Tuesday25347
26/05/2021Wednesday27483
27/05/2021Thursday30198
28/05/2021Friday235318
29/05/2021Saturday21748
30/05/2021Sunday20664
31/05/2021Monday21475
01/06/2021Tuesday26178
02/06/2021Wednesday28383
03/06/2021Thursday31189
04/06/2021Friday243019
05/06/2021Saturday22458
06/06/2021Sunday21344
07/06/2021Monday22366
08/06/2021Tuesday27268
09/06/2021Wednesday29563
10/06/2021Thursday32489
11/06/2021Friday253120
12/06/2021Saturday23388
13/06/2021Sunday22235
14/06/2021Monday23206
15/06/2021Tuesday28278
16/06/2021Wednesday30664
17/06/2021Thursday33699
18/06/2021Friday262520
19/06/2021Saturday24258
20/06/2021Sunday23065
21/06/2021Monday24116
22/06/2021Tuesday29389
23/06/2021Wednesday31874
24/06/2021Thursday350110
25/06/2021Friday272921
26/06/2021Saturday25219
27/06/2021Sunday23975

As of today, 21/05/2021, in the world there have been 166.5 million cases with about an estimated 14.3 million active cases, increasing at +1.87% per day, and 3.46 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.46 million cases and 127,710 deaths. It has an estimated 38,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 33.9 million cases and 603,200 deaths with about 790,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.78%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.08%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.86%. About 8.6% of known cases are still active in the world, 0.85% in the UK, 2.33% in the US.

It’s likely 3.2% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.9% of the UK, and 15.4% of the US.

About 1.5 billion people (19.2%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 38 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 23 weeks ago, averaging 362,000 doses a day over this period, but about 519,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 65% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 34% having both doses, 60% in the UK, 48% in the US, and 34% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 30th August 2021, currently about 91% with 1st dose, 53% with second dose, and all it’s population by 4th January 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 15th May 2022, and a fourth taking the date to 23rd September 2022, and a fifth to 1st February 2023.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.72% for the world and 1.46% for the UK, the current figures being 1.25% for the world and 0.53% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.48% and the current figure is 1.09%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.33%, for the UK, 0.36-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 21/05/2020 there have been 174.6 million tests conducted in the UK, about 170.8 million antigen tests and 3.8 million antibody tests, 4.46 million positive of those 94.9 million processed, 4.7%, or 1 in 21 testing positive, 95.3%, 20 out of 21 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 1,900 and 3,000 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 17.5% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.31% of a population and still increasing. 68 countries have infection rates over 5%.

The drop in cases in the UK has slowed, probably due to the Variant first found in India that seems to be the majority of new cases. So far there has been little evidence of higher infectivity or mortality, or resistance to the current vaccines compared to previous strains 1st found in Kent, Brazil and South Aftrica.

In various countries there seems to be definite interference with the statistics. It seems there are a lot of high up government officials in the world saying, ‘these statistics aren’t acceptable, take them away and come back with better ones.’ Or are altering the basic standard that is being used to give a more favourable impression, with very dubious and suspect motives.

As of today, 25/05/2021, in the world there have been 168.5 million cases with about an estimated 12.7 million active cases, increasing at +1.86% per day, and 3.5 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.47 million cases and 127,739 deaths. It has an estimated 41,500 known active cases. The US is reporting 34 million cases and 605,000 deaths with about 650,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.78%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.08%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.86%. About 7.5% of known cases are still active in the world, 0.93% in the UK, 1.91% in the US.

It’s likely 3.27% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.9% of the UK, and 15.4% of the US.

About 1.7 billion people (21.8%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 38.3 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 24 weeks ago, averaging 367,000 doses a day over this period, but about 577,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 65% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 38% having both doses, 60% in the UK, 49% in the US, and 35% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 24th August 2021, currently about 91% with 1st dose, 64% with second dose, and all it’s population by 16th December 2021. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 13th April 2022, and a fourth taking the date to 9th August 2022, and a fifth to 5th December 2022.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.72% for the world and 1.43% for the UK, the current figures being 1.31% for the world and 0.25% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.47% and the current figure is 1.21%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.33%, for the UK, 0.25-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 25/05/2020 there have been 179.4 million tests conducted in the UK, about 175.5 million antigen tests and 3.9 million antibody tests, 4.47 million positive of those 95.2 million processed, 4.7%, or 1 in 21 testing positive, 95.3%, 20 out of 21 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 2,200 and 3,500 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 17.7% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.31% of a population and still increasing. 68 countries have infection rates over 5%.

The number of cases in the UK don’t seem to be coming down as expected from previous figures. This is probably due to the new variants appearing and becoming dominant earlier than expected. The new variants seem to be more infective than previous versions, and there are signs that mortality is starting to increase again in all areas, following a pattern similar to that of September last year, which is concerning. With the vaccination program continuing, hopefully it should prevent a similar rise to that which happened in the new year, but if uptake of vaccinations is hampered, this could be the result. Another concern is the age groups showing infections, which seems to be showing an impact at a lower age level than before.

As of today, 29/05/2021, in the world there have been 170.6 million cases with about an estimated 11.7 million active cases, increasing at +1.84% per day, and 3.55 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.48 million cases and 127,775 deaths. It has an estimated 43,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 34.2 million cases and 610,000 deaths with about 580,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.78%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.08%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.85%. About 6.9% of known cases are still active in the world, 0.96% in the UK, 1.7% in the US.

It’s likely 3.3% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.9% of the UK, and 15.5% of the US.

About 1.8 billion people (23%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 40 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 25 weeks ago, averaging 375,000 doses a day over this period, but about 662,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 64% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 40% having both doses, 60% in the UK, 50% in the US, and 37% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 21st August 2021, currently about 92% with 1st dose, 67% with second dose, and all it’s population by 5th December 2021. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 24th March 2022, and a fourth taking the date to 11th July 2022, and a fifth to 28th October 2022.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.71% for the world and 1.42% for the UK, the current figures being 1.42% for the world and 0.26% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.47% and the current figure is 1.52%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.33%, for the UK, 0.2-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 29/05/2020 there have been 182.6 million tests conducted in the UK, about 178.6 million antigen tests and 4 million antibody tests, 4.48 million positive of those 97.5 million processed, 4.6%, or 1 in 22 testing positive, 95.4%, 21 out of 22 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 2,400 and 3,800 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 17.7% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.31% of a population and still increasing. 68 countries have infection rates over 5%.

With vaccines, the figures for their effectiveness against current variants of Covid, and mortality rates from the vaccines themselves in the UK gives figures as below:

Case RatesNew CasesMortality
Unvaccinated56.154%2.079%
1 Dose29.832%0.520%
Both Doses14.010%0.208%
Blood Clots from Vaccine0.002%0.001%

If I was to assess the situation in the UK at the moment I would guess that the UK is more successful with its vaccination programme that I expected. New variants are developing and arriving all the time, and so far they have been pretty much similar to the current set of variants, showing less deviation from levels of immunity given from infections and current vaccines. The levels of new cases aren’t coming down as fast as expected, but the mortality is, which shows the current vaccines seem to be working. Lack of uptake may prolong the problem considerably, with people demanding freedoms ensuring by their actions that those freedoms take longer coming. There is less restriction of movement between countries and areas within those countries that there should be, working on whole or nothing limitations, not degrees of risk based on case numbers. If a really bad variant arrives on the scene this free movement of people may prove to be a disaster, but this is only a possibility. On the whole for the UK I think there should be a level of optimism, but this could quickly change if all authorities are not on the ball and quick to adapt to new conditions. Most seem to react to bad events occurring and then acting, rather than doing something to prevent them. A lot of countries only doing what looks good and pleases most people, rather than what is necessary.

The numbers of cases in the UK seem to be rising again at a current rate of about 25-30% per week. But, we must not lose fact of what is important in the form of a disease. We catch on average about 700,000 cases of the cold in the UK a day. The number of deaths from complications from the common cold probably works out to about 4 people a day. Todays number of deaths from Covid was 18. Similarly, with Covid-19, the authorities and scientists shouldn’t lose fact that it is the number of deaths resulting from the infections or the number of hospital cases that is important. The case level is an irritation, but unless it translates into a higher mortality or long term covid effects it’s not so concerning or important compared to the effects happening in the world outside. If the mortality rate also rises in the UK in about 12 days then it is cause for major concern, and another lockdown may be necessary before the end of the year. There are signs though that the variants are changing and affecting younger people more often, so we need to have everybody vaccinated as soon as possible.

The numbers seem to be rising twice as fast for people who have not had a single dose of a vaccine yet, and four times the numbers of those who have had both, but the threshold levels that give severe infections seems to be lowering in age.

As of today, 08/06/2021, in the world there have been 174.7 million cases with about an estimated 9.2 million active cases, increasing at +1.81% per day, and 3.76 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.53 million cases and 127,854 deaths. It has an estimated 76,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 34.3 million cases and 613,000 deaths with about 452,000 active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.79%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.15%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.82%. About 5.3% of known cases are still active in the world, 1.68% in the UK, 1.79% in the US.

It’s likely 3.36% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 10% of the UK, and 15.5% of the US.

About 2.19 billion people (28%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 41 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 26 weeks ago, averaging 378,000 doses a day over this period, but about 589,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 64% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 42% having both doses, 61% in the UK, 51% in the US, and 41% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 23rd September 2021, currently about 94% with 1st dose, 75% with second dose, and all it’s population by 5th February 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 24th June 2022, and a fourth taking the date to 10th November 2022, and a fifth to 30th March 2023.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.73% for the world and 1.38% for the UK, the current figures being 3.63% for the world and 0.41% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.48% and the current figure is 1.69%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-4.48%, for the UK, 0.2-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 08/06/2020 there have been 193.2 million tests conducted in the UK, about 189.2 million antigen tests and 4 million antibody tests, 4.53 million positive of those 100.1 million processed, 4.53%, or 1 in 22 testing positive, 94.7%, 22 out of 23 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 5,600 and 8,700 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 17.8% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.56% of a population and still increasing. 70 countries have infection rates over 5%.

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