Covid Status 03/04/2021
In a number of countries around the world we are seeing large scale roll-outs of vaccines. Israel is well on the way to complete inoculation with countries such as the UK 50% into their current program, the US 25%, and the EU about 15% into their programs. But we still have the various countries in the world thinking they can deal with the problem of Covid-19 locally and in piecemeal. Right from the start, over a year ago, I was of the opinion that the world is not dealing with it, with a lot of countries thinking they can sort the problem out by restricting and letting other countries sort out the problem. I haven’t changed my mind, as the world is still not dealing with it, grabbing local and temporary victories in a political point scoring plan. The EU is seeing their failures as the problem being the UK, when it is their bureaucracies that are at fault. Countries have governments that rule and command, oh, and we might help our people along the way as an afterthought. This is a social disease that seems to be endemic anyway to a lot of countries.
We currently have a lot of political manipulation, with governments failing in their programs, and using unproven links to claim dangers in the vaccines, so effectively you wouldn’t want them anyway, when it is really they themselves have failed, and failed badly to protect their own people, their sole job in power being the promise of protecting them against such things. I still can’t quite get to grips with the sheer lunacy and stupidity of some people in power in world governments, equating minute and still as yet unproven links and risks with vaccines, compared with known and actual massive risks from not using them. But people like Hitler and Napoleon Bonaparte came to power, so it’s easy for madmen to run countries, as they have the domineering characteristics that a lot of people only value, but most people think of it as insanity, the insane supported by the like insane riding on their coat-tails. Hard and callous people making hard and callous decisions, giving a hard and callous society. You get the society you deserve, and we now have a ‘me too’ paranoid public who see spectres in every shadow, and insults in every sentence. Vaccines and putting in measures to limit spread are the only way out of this at the moment, there being no plan B or C, and the lack of emphasis on this will probably mean disaster later on. We have societies that plan for the present, but live in a dangerous universe, one step away from losing everything. Disasters things that happen to other people and not in their lifetime, so don’t exist. But they do exist and will happen, not if, but when. I do go on, talking to other people of systemic interconnected and interrelated errors bringing down civilizations, and I can see cumulative ones developing in our societies, but no-one is listening anyway, so what’s the point. Friends, family and colleagues didn’t really listen in January last year to me about this virus threat I was pretty sure was coming our way, thinking I was getting cranky; they still think it.
We live now in a ‘blame all that’s wrong with our life on somebody else society.’ Pretty much more victorian than the victorians in wanting to apportion blame. There is so little freedom in most ‘civilised’ societies to even say anything these days without somebody chosing to interpret it as offensive to them, or their chosen jihad. Equality is a right, but only if it applies to them, openly destroying it for others, taking no prisoners. But random has always been really a fiction, everything having a cause, confusing models and extreme and sometimes impossible equations with actuality and reality. ‘According to the mathematics and equations theoretically the cause should be, we just don’t know, and can’t work out the exact link, ergo random effect.’ But the modern deity of random effect is very fickle, especially in physics, who claim ‘a paradigm shift,’ when it’s in fact it’s the replacement of a totally erroneous way of thinking that is proven to not work out for them. If you can’t work out the chain of events, it probably isn’t true in the way you say. Nature doesn’t leave gaps or make jumps. So in all history far nobody has demonstrated a photon hitting a target before it was generated, but probability wave form suggests that it could happen. A derivation and extreme solution of an equation suggests that the mathematical system is not up to the job of working it out, and the paint was applied too heavily on the canvas, so the actual landscape looks lumpy bumpy in the image of it. The crow has an enigmatic smile, obviously something needing to be read into it.
So we have a zoonotic virus that is said to have appeared at random, but was expected and predicted. Just mild enough to pass immediate threat identification, the experts only watching out for severe things, but bad enough to kill reasonable amounts of people and get out before it was stamped on. The perfect storm virus. Add in delays and misinformation at the start, with governments considering factual information about it as an embarassment to their order. Also add an organisation that was supposed to watch out for such things that had become politically driven, bloated in the extreme, and effectively virus friendly. Next add experts in governments who denied the risk as it would upset their budgets, and concealed the appalling risks that were shown in test runs so that another later government would eventually need to pay. Hundreds of billions spent on theoretical and what turned out to be non-existent threats, refusing to spend the millions needed to stop this happening. You tend to think this is not so much a freak event but predestined to happen, only being unusual why it hadn’t happened more times, the last being about 100 years previously. It was concealed then by governments and the media as it would have spoiled their image.
Vaccines; is the problem solved…….No. The current effectiveness of vaccines against dying from Covid is high though at the moment. No vaccines is 100% effective whatever the rhetoric delivered by the people advising it claim. Probably still for most of them it’s about 90%, reducing as time and new appearing variants go by. You have various unproven figures bandied about, based on no real-life evidence, just vague modelling, and modelling is one of those things that can be manipulated to give the figures you want based on choosing the appropriate parameters and unproven and unvalidated relationships. I’ve worked my whole life in statistics producing models, but you must never assume that models are real life, just tools to try to give you a handle on it. Statistical methods are tools to try to give you a best guess to figure out what is happening; reality quite often having other plans. You shouldn’t confuse the painting with the scene, claiming the painting shows this will happen. It’s a real world, not it’s surreal world.
Covid is still not endemic in the world, with probably only at most about 3% of it affected so far. It’s slowly getting there with countries showing up to 14% infection rates and still increasing, so the early random guesses that there were 20 times the actual numbers out there have subsequently proved that they were just random guesses from prior opinion and assumption led models. It’s a thing that is happening more and more in science; choosing the result you want, then manipulating data to give this result. ‘I know the result it will be so I only need data to confirm this,’ is the mantra.
So, what are we left with: Probably about 3%, and say 7 major variants with 2 major lockdowns in 17 months and little international travelling. Best guess; 60% and say 140 major variants, 10 super variants, and a few vaccine fully resistant variants within 14 years, 8 lockdowns and even more limited travelling for decades. Likely Covid will probably be with us now for 2 decades; see if it’s similar to the conditions now in 2041, I wouldn’t rule it out. But if there appear other minor threats that could have been solved, the likelihood is that they will become major ones, and major ones developing will become world threatening ones. A world wide systemic cascade failure may be on the cards. It’s likely that this has happened in the past, over 12,000+ ago, possibly a number of times in unknown human history.
As for the UK, we will go on with the vaccination plan, needing topup’s in the vaccines each year, so a lot of the immediate risk will reduce, as in the US. But with free travel, borders will probably be closed too late when really dangerous variants appear, existing vaccinations giving limited protection as long as we stay within the UK. Go outside for any length of time and the risk will increase dramatically. What is needed is a ramping up of the production of vaccines in all countries and inoculate all the world, keeping an eye out for vaccines resistant strains. But resources must not be diverted from other disease wars otherwise they will come out of suppression and become major risks again. Rome, Greece, Egypt, Maya’s, Inca’s, N. American mound builders, probably all fell because they were in effect unsustainable societies. Our current societies are similar with government and business seeing constant growth as the ultimate goal. 1% growth a year over 20,000 years is more resources than are in the universe.
Getting back to things like variants, so far we have probably only seen minor ones. There is not a massive difference between Covid-19 (about 1.5% fatal), SARS (about 10% fatal), and MERS (about 30% fatal.) I could see a MERS like variant arising that vaccines could reduce to twice Covid levels, young and old being equally affected, so killing about 3% (say 1 in 33) of those who get infected, or producing twice the level currently found in developed countries, but decimating developing ones. So all in all the young and upcoming will be probably be known by later ones as the generation that didn’t exist.
If there are no major replacement variants that the current vaccines don’t work on then the situation for the UK should probably look like the one below, the flu jab interfering with the subsequent second covid jab:
But if there is a new major variant say in April and one every year from then on, the situation may go to the one below, basically starting nearly from scratch each year:
The resources required are twice for the second situation as the first, but key is the amount of space between the purple and turquoise curves. By combining the two vaccinations you would get closer to the original chart and overall protection, so if it’s possible it should be something that is worked out earlier than later.
I think it very likely givent the current situation in the world that an update covid injection is going to be required each year. At the end of the year the flu jabs are normally scheduled to start, but if a new set of injections are required the current 350,000 a day will either need to be reduced or the protection against seasonal influenza to be reduced or lengthened in scale, reducing the effectiveness, trading off one risk for another equivalent risk.
We may find with new variants that the current lockdowns and wait for vaccines may become a regular occurrence until a highly infective and higher mortality version occurs at some stage. With numbers still going on unabated in the world we can’t just assume this will not happen, and the likelihood is that at some time it will.
Our only open is a worldwide vaccination plan. Produce as much and distribute as much with the wealthy nations footing the bill.
The wolf has been scared off and gone away to feast at other houses, but will be back again and again when he is hungry. If this is not sorted prepare for lockdowns 4, 5, 6, 7………