Coronavirus Risks 7 (SARS-CoV-2)

I’ve been following the virus for 69 weeks now now. Originally I thought that it would be very limited, but that changed about 68 weeks ago, when the numbers began to rise and we found out more about it. The infected seem to consist of a lot that are in recovery, official active cases currently 12.5%, being recently adujusted, but more likely 9.8%, increasing at a rate of 0.7% per day, but does’t seem to push the continuity risk to the average population above around about 2.1% mortality if you contract the disease. Actual numbers are probably about 1.5X the recorded ones for cases, a figure that comes from about 2.2 billion tests being taken on about 15% of the worlds population, 24 countries now having tested all of their population. Its likely that we are seeing the effects of various mutations in countries rather than a single one. The rate has been pretty consistent since most countries locked down and the effects of this took place since May 2020. There was a lull in figures, but that was probably due to countries finally getting around to working out the statistics, but the numbers are starting to rise in the world again in proportion, so it suggests more potent variants are starting to appear and replace the previous ones we know and are guarding against. The moving average of active and infective cases suggest that the world as a whole under lockdown has an ‘R’ rate of about 1.03, so there is little chance of it being controlled even with current vaccines for at least 10 months, possibly years if the logistics are wrong. Currently the numbers will probably double every 18.5 weeks and keep on reoccurring or inititiating in each country. Given mutations by numbers, it is probable that any country will need to stay in lockdown and isolate for the next couple of years to avoid it. Since circumstances have not changed much over the last 12 months the likelihood of catching the disease is therefore now probably around 90% at some time, so all that can probably be done is to manage and delay. There have been at least 10 major variants that have occurred in the first 150 million cases (1.8%) over a period of 18 months, of which 7 are worrying in respect of vaccines and long term immunity.

Current Status:

This is a continuation of Coronavirus Risks 6, a continuation of the original posts, Coronavirus Risks 5, Coronavirus Risks 4, Coronavirus Risks 3, Coronavirus Risks and Coronavirus Risks 2 that were also getting a bit long.

As of today, 23/02/2021, in the world there have been 112.6 million cases with about an estimated 7.8 million active cases, increasing at +2.2% per day, and 2.49 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.14 million cases and 121,000 deaths. It has an estimated 316,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 28.9 million cases and 514,000 deaths with about 2 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.78%. As of 23/02/2020 there have been 87.2 million tests conducted in the UK, about 84.3 million antigen tests and 3.2 million antibody tests, 4.14 million positive of those 73.3 million processed, 5.65%, or 1 in 18 testing positive, 94.35%, 17 out of 18 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 8,500 and 13,000 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.2%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.92%. About 6.9% of known cases are still active in the world, 7.6% in the UK, 6.9% in the US. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 168,000 deaths and 6.2 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 97,000-210,000, 2.1 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.71%.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.69% for the world and 1.6% for the UK, the current figures being 1.74% for the world and 2.48% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.5% and the current figure is 1.53%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.2%, for the UK, 0.6-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

So about 1.44% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 6.1% of the UK, and 8.73% of the US according to the approximate official estimates, but likely 2.17% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.1% of the UK, and 13.1% of the US.

Highest infection rates for a large area or country is currently 13.85% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.27% of a population and still increasing. 34 countries have infection rates over 5%, and 10 countries have mortality rates over 5% of those infected, the average by country being 2.09%.

An estimated 19.7 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 11 weeks ago, averaging 250,000 doses a day over this period, but about 361,000 a day at the moment. About 89% of the people in Israel have had a vaccine, 56.2% in the United Arab Emirates, 27.6% in the UK, 19.7% in the US, and 6.3% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 18th July 2021, and all it’s population by 17th January 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab will be required by then, taking the date to 25th July 2022.

The rate of vaccinations in all but Israel seem to be tapering off, possibly driven by supply or public resistance to vaccines, and there are signs that cases are showing a resurgence in a number of countries. There is a worry that new more infective variants are driving this resurgence, and that the demand that things ‘get back to business as normal quickly’ may fire this resurgence further. The emerging of new reports that ‘herd immunity is close,’ similer in line with those right at the start that were pretty well discreditied by the statistics, is a worrying aspect. We still know very little about this virus even with the massive amounts of research, but statistics are there to inform and get the best idea of what is happening. Many of the studies are funded and have a purpose other than this, with motives not to inform, but muddy with a financial advantage rather than a social or satety one.

As of today, 25/02/2021, in the world there have been 113.5 million cases with about an estimated 7.6 million active cases, increasing at +2.18% per day, and 2.52 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.15 million cases and 122,000 deaths. It has an estimated 243,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 29 million cases and 520,000 deaths with about 1.6 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.79%. As of 25/02/2020 there have been 89.2 million tests conducted in the UK, about 86 million antigen tests and 3.2 million antibody tests, 4.15 million positive of those 74.3 million processed, 5.59%, or 1 in 18 testing positive, 94.41%, 17 out of 18 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 7,000 and 11,000 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.2%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.94%. About 6.7% of known cases are still active in the world, 5.9% in the UK, 5.5% in the US. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 170,000 deaths and 6.23 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 98,000-215,000, 2.08 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.73%.

About 220 million people (3%) have had a vaccine in the world. An estimated 20 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 11 weeks ago, averaging 254,000 doses a day over this period, but about 373,000 a day at the moment. About 91% of the people in Israel have had a vaccine, 28.9% in the UK, 20.5% in the US, and 6.8% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 16th July 2021, currently about 56% with 1st dose, and all it’s population by 9th January 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab will be required by then, taking the date to 10th July 2022.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.69% for the world and 1.61% for the UK, the current figures being 1.79% for the world and 2.5% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.49% and the current figure is 1.57%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.2%, for the UK, 0.6-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

So about 1.46% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 6.1% of the UK, and 8.76% of the US according to the approximate official estimates, but likely 2.18% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.15% of the UK, and 13.1% of the US.

Highest infection rates for a large area or country is currently 14% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.27% of a population and still increasing. 35 countries have infection rates over 5%, and 10 countries have mortality rates over 5% of those infected, the average by country being 2.09%.

As of today, 02/03/2021, in the world there have been 115.3 million cases with about an estimated 7.5 million active cases, increasing at +2.16% per day, and 2.56 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.19 million cases and 123,300 deaths. It has an estimated 200,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 29.4 million cases and 528,000 deaths with about 1.5 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.8%. As of 02/03/2020 there have been 91.8 million tests conducted in the UK, about 88.5 million antigen tests and 3.3 million antibody tests, 4.19 million positive of those 75.5 million processed, 5.55%, or 1 in 18 testing positive, 94.45%, 17 out of 18 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 4,800 and 7,500 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.22%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.94%. About 6.5% of known cases are still active in the world, 4.8% in the UK, 5.1% in the US. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 171,000 deaths and 6.29 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 100,000-220,000, 2.1 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.72%.

About 250 million people (3.2%) have had a vaccine in the world. An estimated 22 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 12 weeks ago, averaging 260,000 doses a day over this period, but about 370,000 a day at the moment. About 96.7% of the people in Israel have had a vaccine, 31.7% in the UK, 23.7% in the US, and 7.8% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 21st July 2021, currently about 63% with 1st dose, and all it’s population by 16th January 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab will be required by then, taking the date to 19th July 2022.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.7% for the world and 1.63% for the UK, the current figures being 2.07% for the world and 2.41% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.5% and the current figure is 2.54%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.2%, for the UK, 0.6-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

So about 1.48% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 6.16% of the UK, and 8.88% of the US according to the approximate official estimates, but likely 2.22% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.2% of the UK, and 13.3% of the US.

Highest infection rates for a large area or country is currently 14.1% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.28% of a population and still increasing. 37 countries have infection rates over 5%, and 10 countries have mortality rates over 5% of those infected, the average by country being 2.08%.

This is the latest etimated data.

4th Model with Adjustments
Date	Day	Case Trend	Death Trend
03/03/21	Wednesday	7273	323
04/03/21	Thursday	7308	236
05/03/21	Friday	6238	252
06/03/21	Saturday	5441	212
07/03/21	Sunday	4417	105
08/03/21	Monday	3638	69
09/03/21	Tuesday	4143	267
10/03/21	Wednesday	4851	216
11/03/21	Thursday	4874	158
12/03/21	Friday	4160	168
13/03/21	Saturday	3629	142
14/03/21	Sunday	2946	70
15/03/21	Monday	2227	42
16/03/21	Tuesday	2537	164
17/03/21	Wednesday	2970	132
18/03/21	Thursday	2984	97
19/03/21	Friday	2547	103
20/03/21	Saturday	2222	87
21/03/21	Sunday	1804	43
22/03/21	Monday	1282	24
23/03/21	Tuesday	1460	94
24/03/21	Wednesday	1710	76
25/03/21	Thursday	1718	56
26/03/21	Friday	1466	59
27/03/21	Saturday	1279	50
28/03/21	Sunday	1038	25
29/03/21	Monday	685	13
30/03/21	Tuesday	781	50
31/03/21	Wednesday	914	41
01/04/21	Thursday	918	30
02/04/21	Friday	784	32
03/04/21	Saturday	684	27
04/04/21	Sunday	555	13
05/04/21	Monday	342	7
06/04/21	Tuesday	390	25
07/04/21	Wednesday	457	20
08/04/21	Thursday	459	15
09/04/21	Friday	392	16
10/04/21	Saturday	342	13
11/04/21	Sunday	277	7
12/04/21	Monday	159	3
13/04/21	Tuesday	181	12
14/04/21	Wednesday	212	9
15/04/21	Thursday	213	7
16/04/21	Friday	182	7
17/04/21	Saturday	159	6
18/04/21	Sunday	129	3
19/04/21	Monday	69	1
20/04/21	Tuesday	79	5
21/04/21	Wednesday	92	4
22/04/21	Thursday	93	3
23/04/21	Friday	79	3
24/04/21	Saturday	69	3
25/04/21	Sunday	56	1
26/04/21	Monday	28	1
27/04/21	Tuesday	32	2
28/04/21	Wednesday	37	2
29/04/21	Thursday	38	1
30/04/21	Friday	32	1
01/05/21	Saturday	28	1
02/05/21	Sunday	23	1
03/05/21	Monday	11	0
04/05/21	Tuesday	12	1
05/05/21	Wednesday	14	1
06/05/21	Thursday	14	0
07/05/21	Friday	12	0
08/05/21	Saturday	11	0
09/05/21	Sunday	9	0
10/05/21	Monday	4	0
11/05/21	Tuesday	4	0
12/05/21	Wednesday	5	0
13/05/21	Thursday	5	0
14/05/21	Friday	4	0
15/05/21	Saturday	4	0
16/05/21	Sunday	3	0

This looks like the way things should go in the UK because of restriction, distancing, hygiene, and widespread vaccination, the problems being new variants and why some areas are showing an increase at the moment, Wales and the North being worrying. The numbers should come down below 1,000 cases for the week starting 29th March, and Covid deaths becoming a rare event from about mid May.

As of today, 07/03/2021, in the world there have been 117.4 million cases with about an estimated 7.58 million active cases, increasing at +2.15% per day, and 2.61 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.22 million cases and 124,000 deaths. It has an estimated 170,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 29.7 million cases and 539,000 deaths with about 1.39 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.81%. As of 07/03/2020 there have been 96.3 million tests conducted in the UK, about 93 million antigen tests and 3.3 million antibody tests, 4.22 million positive of those 77.3 million processed, 5.46%, or 1 in 18 testing positive, 94.54%, 17 out of 18 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 4,700 and 7,400 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.22%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.98%. About 6.5% of known cases are still active in the world, 4% in the UK, 4.7% in the US. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 173,000 deaths and 6.33 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 101,000-225,000, 2.11 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.73%.

About 300 million people (3.8%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 24 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 13 weeks ago, averaging 267,000 doses a day over this period, but about 350,000 a day at the moment. All of the people in Israel have had a vaccine, 35.2% in the UK, 26.4% in the US, and 9.45% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 4th August 2021, currently about 68.4% with 1st dose, and all it’s population by 8th February 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab will be required by then, taking the date to 21st August 2022.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.71% for the world and 1.65% for the UK, the current figures being 2.02% for the world and 2% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.52% and the current figure is 2.36%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.24%, for the UK, 0.6-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

So about 1.51% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 6.21% of the UK, and 8.97% of the US according to the approximate official estimates, but likely 2.26% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.31% of the UK, and 13.46% of the US.

Highest infection rates for a large area or country is currently 14.2% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.28% of a population and still increasing. 41 countries have infection rates over 5%, and 9 countries still have mortality rates over 5% of those infected, the average by country being 2.07%.

One thing that is noticeable is that mortality in Israel has not continue to increase at the rate in comparison to it’s cases. Israel has given all of it’s population at least one dose of a Covid vaccine and the numbers are coming down quickly that suggests the effectiveness of the vaccines is better than expected, even with a number of variants now occurring. If this is the general trend for the vaccines, then the UK and other countries implementing fast mass vaccination may also show this quick reduction and a quick return to some sense of normality, at least by the end of the year if the their public health protection authorities remain vigilant against novel variants.

As of today, 11/03/2021, in the world there have been 119.1 million cases with about an estimated 8 million active cases, increasing at +2.12% per day, and 2.64 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.24 million cases and 125,168 deaths. It has an estimated 146,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 29.9 million cases and 544,000 deaths with about 1.28 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.82%. As of 11/03/2020 there have been 102.9 million tests conducted in the UK, about 99.6 million antigen tests and 3.3 million antibody tests, 4.24 million positive of those 78 million processed, 5.44%, or 1 in 18 testing positive, 94.56%, 17 out of 18 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 4,000 and 6,000 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.22%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.95%. About 6.7% of known cases are still active in the world, 3.4% in the UK, 4.3% in the US. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 174,000 deaths and 6.36 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 102,000-230,000, 2.12 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.74%.

About 330 million people (4.2%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 25 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 13 weeks ago, averaging 269,500 doses a day over this period, but about 351,000 a day at the moment. All of the people in Israel have had a vaccine, 36.5% in the UK, 29.5% in the US, and 10.5% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 7th August 2021, currently about 73% with 1st dose, and all it’s population by 11th February 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab will be required by then, taking the date to 23st August 2022.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.72% for the world and 1.65% for the UK, the current figures being 2.02% for the world and 1.9% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.53% and the current figure is 2.03%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.24%, for the UK, 0.6-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

So about 1.53% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 6.24% of the UK, and 9% of the US according to the approximate official estimates, but likely 2.29% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.35% of the UK, and 13.55% of the US.

Highest infection rates for a large area or country is currently 14.4% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.28% of a population and still increasing. 42 countries have infection rates over 5%, and 9 countries still have mortality rates over 5% of those infected, the average by country being 2.07%.

As of today, 15/03/2021, in the world there have been 120.8 million cases with about an estimated 8.14 million active cases, increasing at +2.1% per day, and 2.67 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.26 million cases and 125,580 deaths. It has an estimated 132,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 30.1 million cases and 548,000 deaths with about 1.26 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.82%. As of 15/03/2020 there have been 107 million tests conducted in the UK, about 103.7 million antigen tests and 3.31 million antibody tests, 4.26 million positive of those 79 million processed, 5.39%, or 1 in 19 testing positive, 94.61%, 18 out of 19 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 3,500 and 5,500 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.21%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.95%. About 6.74% of known cases are still active in the world, 3.39% in the UK, 4.19% in the US. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 175,000 deaths and 6.39 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 103,000-233,000, 2.13 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.74%.

About 360 million people (4.62%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 27 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 14 weeks ago, averaging 274,000 doses a day over this period, but about 363,000 a day at the moment. All of the people in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 40% in the UK, 32.5% in the US, and 11.2% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 6th August 2021, currently about 78% with 1st dose, and all it’s population by 4th February 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab will be required by then, taking the date to 11th August 2022.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.72% for the world and 1.66% for the UK, the current figures being 2.08% for the world and 1.78% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.53% and the current figure is 1.83%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.24%, for the UK, 0.6-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

So about 1.55% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 6.26% of the UK, and 9.1% of the US according to the approximate official estimates, but likely 2.32% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.4% of the UK, and 13.6% of the US.

Highest infection rates for a large area or country is currently 14.6% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.28% of a population and still increasing. 45 countries have infection rates over 5%, and 9 countries still have mortality rates over 5% of those infected, the average by country being 2.03%.

The numbers in the UK are not coming down as quickly as expected, and in some places they are starting to increase. The mortality rate is though. This suggests that new variants are driving the numbers. As vaccinations increase for the general population then the numbers are likely to come down, just not as fast as previously expected.

4th Model with Adjustments for variants
Date	Day	Case Trend	Death Trend
16/03/21	Tuesday	4252	170
17/03/21	Wednesday	4370	140
18/03/21	Thursday	4980	133
19/03/21	Friday	4873	129
20/03/21	Saturday	4081	89
21/03/21	Sunday	3405	38
22/03/21	Monday	3959	50
23/03/21	Tuesday	3308	133
24/03/21	Wednesday	3400	109
25/03/21	Thursday	3874	104
26/03/21	Friday	3792	100
27/03/21	Saturday	3175	69
28/03/21	Sunday	2649	30
29/03/21	Monday	2772	35
30/03/21	Tuesday	2316	93
31/03/21	Wednesday	2380	76
01/04/21	Thursday	2713	73
02/04/21	Friday	2655	70
03/04/21	Saturday	2223	49
04/04/21	Sunday	1855	21
05/04/21	Monday	1844	23
06/04/21	Tuesday	1541	62
07/04/21	Wednesday	1583	51
08/04/21	Thursday	1804	48
09/04/21	Friday	1766	47
10/04/21	Saturday	1479	32
11/04/21	Sunday	1234	14
12/04/21	Monday	1133	14
13/04/21	Tuesday	947	38
14/04/21	Wednesday	973	31
15/04/21	Thursday	1109	30
16/04/21	Friday	1085	29
17/04/21	Saturday	908	20
18/04/21	Sunday	758	9

As of today, 22/03/2021, in the world there have been 124.2 million cases with about an estimated 8.5 million active cases, increasing at +2.07% per day, and 2.73 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.3 million cases and 126,200 deaths. It has an estimated 115,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 30.6 million cases and 556,000 deaths with about 1.2 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.82%. As of 22/03/2020 there have been 118.4 million tests conducted in the UK, about 115 million antigen tests and 3.4 million antibody tests, 4.3 million positive of those 81.2 million processed, 5.3%, or 1 in 19 testing positive, 94.7%, 18 out of 19 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 4,400 and 6,800 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.2%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.9%. About 6.8% of known cases are still active in the world, 2.7% in the UK, 3.9% in the US. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 174,000 deaths and 6.5 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 105,000-238,000, 2.2 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.68%.

About 440 million people (5.6%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 30 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 15 weeks ago, averaging 294,000 doses a day over this period, but about 578,000 a day at the moment. All of the people in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 12.2% having both doses, 46% in the UK, 38% in the US, and 12.9% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 20th June 2021, currently about 86% with 1st dose, and all it’s population by 12th October 2021. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 7th February 2022.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.73% for the world and 1.66% for the UK, the current figures being 2.12% for the world and 1.67% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.54% and the current figure is 1.62%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.24%, for the UK, 0.6-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

So about 1.59% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 6.32% of the UK, and 9.24% of the US according to the approximate official estimates, but likely 2.39% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.49% of the UK, and 13.87% of the US.

Highest infection rates for a large area or country is currently 14.9% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.28% of a population and still increasing. 47 countries have infection rates over 5%, and 10 countries still have mortality rates over 5% of those infected, the average by country being 2.02%.

The numbersof cases in the UK appear to be showing a moderate resurgence, but the number of deaths are continuing downwards as expected in line with the effectiveness of the vaccines that we also see in the reducing mortality figures from Israel.

Updated figures for changing variants.

5th Model with Adjustments for variants
Date	Day	Case Trend	Death Trend
24/03/21	Wednesday	4941	121
25/03/21	Thursday	5408	82
26/03/21	Friday	4120	87
27/03/21	Saturday	4794	82
28/03/21	Sunday	4558	28
29/03/21	Monday	4474	14
30/03/21	Tuesday	4505	94
31/03/21	Wednesday	4138	101
01/04/21	Thursday	4529	68
02/04/21	Friday	3451	73
03/04/21	Saturday	4015	69
04/04/21	Sunday	3817	24
05/04/21	Monday	3509	11
06/04/21	Tuesday	3534	74
07/04/21	Wednesday	3246	79
08/04/21	Thursday	3553	54
09/04/21	Friday	2707	57
10/04/21	Saturday	3149	54
11/04/21	Sunday	2994	19
12/04/21	Monday	2561	8
13/04/21	Tuesday	2579	54
14/04/21	Wednesday	2369	58
15/04/21	Thursday	2593	39
16/04/21	Friday	1975	42
17/04/21	Saturday	2298	39
18/04/21	Sunday	2185	14

The How’s and the What’s of Covid

The whole purpose of statistics is to give a true representation of what has happened so you can work out how things are related and the relationships of cause and effect. You alter the basis for them at your peril, usually needing to discard everything, every consensus, which went before as faulty. I’ve never been fond of the idea of random effect dictating an outcome and so far I don’t think anybody in the whole of science’s history has. Every happening has a cause, and you don’t find a light coming on before you throw the switch unless there is a fault somewhere that causes it.

But many scientists still have the ‘belief’ this is how things work. Not based on any examples except where they don’t have the ability, yet if at all, to measure the cause and effect. The idea that ‘I can’t measure it, therefore it can’t be measured,’ is one of a scientists inadequacy, not their ability, and theories based on simple inadequacies are doomed to eventual failure. A law that gives 999 correct results is a failure if there is 1 incorrect one. It means you don’t understand the problem however much you say you do and have documents to prove it. That becomes a rule, not a law.

With Covid-19 we have a completely new set of rules, virtually everything known about viruses in the past being disproved or shown as insufficient. There are no experts as yet on Covid, most being shown as making massive errors in outcomes as they based their new rules of Covid on past theory rather than actual events. In most cases only the vaguest generalities have happened. This will happen except in cases where it doesn’t.

What do we really know?

It uses the ACE2 enzyme.

It spreads in fluid droplets.

It’s similar to SARS, MERS, and parts of what causes the common cold.

It’s contagious.

People die from its complications.

Most people who die from it have lung damage.

Over a 125 million people have been infected with it.

A mask can reduce the risk of being infected.

Social distancing can reduce the risk of being infected.

The older you are the bigger the risk.

The unhealthier you are the bigger the risk.

But apart from that most information is theoretical. The ideas are based on things that are not Covid-19, but we can come up with things that probably increase your risk based on the statistics we have.

Being old.

Being overweight.

Being male.

Being part of a non-white ethnic group.

Having a major illness such as high blood pressure, diabetes or cancer.

Population density.

Population mobility.

Working in a contact type or customer facing employment.

Being in the front line such as medical staff.

Not taking care of yourself or proximity.

Being dismissive of the risk.

Elevation?

The key is the usage of the ACE2 enzyme. ACE2 is mainly in things like surface and external environment contact cells such as the lungs (squamous epithelial cells). They surround many major organs of he body, so everywhere is up for grabs and damage may not be noticeable at first, but over many years or years later. Cells are being damaged, especially the surfaces of organs, at a greater rate than normal, so the effects in things like cancers may have the equivalent of ageing the body by years. You can’t just replace the ACE2 that is utilised by Covid as it will use it as additional fuel to allow greater inflows of the virus into the body, possibly resulting in all over body inflammation and a sort of Kawasaki Disease. ACE2 is part of the RAAS system, so all you can do while the disease is present is to reduce the amount of ACE to suitable levels so as not to allow for organ damage, so possibly with a large scale steroids and antibiotics to prevent influx of bacteria that may talk advantages of weaknesses in the body. The body is a set of checks and balances and Covid destabilises this. The young have an advantage in that their bodies are less prone to RAAS imbalances whereas those people with things like extra weight or diabetes are already imbalanced and out of kilter, so more prone to ACE2 induced tipping. It’s surprising how many people who appear healthy have an endemic health problem that they are not addressing or aware of; alcohol, food, drug, and environmental damage? But it’s a thing that needs to be done in small and careful steps to avoid catastrophic overcompensation, ignoring what is considered medically exactly right or wrong in the balances.  It’s a bit like saying a certain gap in spark plugs is correct in all cars, some may work well, and others may misfire terribly and damage the engine over time. 100mg is never a dose for all, some may be 110.6, others may be 73.25 to work properly, and to think only in these exact quantities is pigeonholing infinitely variable functions. RAAS function streamlining rather than addressing just one cog.

The use of virtual reality and hypnotism in repurposing and retraining areas of the brain.

Our brain is very flexible, and although scientists have demonstrated with experiments how a number of people use a certain area of the brain for a certain purposes this is not true for all people, and is a generalisation. Our brain seems to be much more of a Swiss army knife type of computer that can repurpose and in fact grow additions in other areas to take over tasks.

One of the curious effects that can be demonstrated is that our mind can be fooled into believing parts of our body is there or not there, a phenomena of Phantom limb effects due to the internal mental virtualisation of our body.

As of today, 26/03/2021, in the world there have been 126.7 million cases with about an estimated 9.8 million active cases, increasing at +2.1% per day, and 2.78 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.33 million cases and 126,500 deaths. It has an estimated 112,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 30.8 million cases and 561,000 deaths with about 1.18 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.82%. As of 26/03/2020 there have been 123.4 million tests conducted in the UK, about 120 million antigen tests and 3.4 million antibody tests, 4.33 million positive of those 83.5 million processed, 5.19%, or 1 in 19 testing positive, 94.81%, 18 out of 19 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 4,300 and 6,800 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.19%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.92%. About 7.7% of known cases are still active in the world, 2.59% in the UK, 3.83% in the US. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 176,000 deaths and 6.5 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 106,000-244,000, 2.17 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.71%.

About 510 million people (6.5%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 31 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 15 weeks ago, averaging 308,000 doses a day over this period, but about 589,000 a day at the moment. All of the people in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 15% having both doses, 80% in the UAE, 50% in Chile, 48.5% in the UK, 40.5% in the US, and 14.6% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 23rd June 2021, currently about 88% with 1st dose, and all it’s population by 13th October 2021. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 5th February 2022.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.74% for the world and 1.64% for the UK, the current figures being 1.93% for the world and 1.29% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.54% and the current figure is 1.63%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.23%, for the UK, 0.6-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

So about 1.62% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 6.37% of the UK, and 9.31% of the US according to the approximate official estimates, but likely 2.44% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.55% of the UK, and 13.96% of the US.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 15.2% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.28% of a population and still increasing. 49 countries have infection rates over 5%, and 9 countries still have mortality rates over 5% of those infected, the average by country being 2%.

The number of cases in the UK seem to still be reducing, but not as fast as expected. The number of deaths in the UK is reducing as expected, and can be seen in the reducing percentage mortality and backtracked mortality levels. The number of cases in the world though seems to be picking up again, the prior reducing figures probably being affected by large numbers of recoveries being suddenly put into the figures, giving a misleading trend. In a previous post I found it to be unusual that some very large countries with many infections haven’t produced variants, but there is news that more distant variants are starting to appear in them that current stage vaccines will have a problem with.

The world current infection rate is probably no more than about 3%, no country having had figures of higher than 15% given almost 2 billion tests conducted worldwide. The claims for good science suggesting more widespread infection usually are on the basis of the tests being poor science. Claims of professionalism in one area and lack of it in another. But models are not real life conditions, only being a rough tool to estimate what conditions could be based on pre-decided opinions and best guesswork. All models that work on the basis of an expected result in mind are invalid and give results worse than random effect. The figures still suggest that the next major replacement variant will come on the scene around may, what are labelled as major variants probably being minor ones.

As of today, 01/04/2021, in the world there have been 130 million cases with about an estimated 10.5 million active cases, increasing at +2% per day, and 2.83 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.35 million cases and 126,764 deaths. It has an estimated 102,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 31.2 million cases and 566,000 deaths with about 1.24 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.81%. As of 01/04/2020 there have been 129.4 million tests conducted in the UK, about 126 million antigen tests and 3.4 million antibody tests, 4.35 million positive of those 84.4 million processed, 5.15%, or 1 in 19 testing positive, 94.85%, 18 out of 19 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 3,400 and 5,400 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.18%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.91%. About 8.1% of known cases are still active in the world, 2.34% in the UK, 4% in the US. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 176,000 deaths and 6.53 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 106,000-245,000, 2.18 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.7%.

About 600 million people (7.7%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 32 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 16 weeks ago, averaging 319,000 doses a day over this period, but about 557,000 a day at the moment. All of the people in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 20% having both doses, 80% in the UAE, 50% in Chile, 50% in the UK, 42% in the US, and 15% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 4th July 2021, currently about 90% with 1st dose, and all it’s population by 30th October 2021. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 2nd March 2022.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.74% for the world and 1.64% for the UK, the current figures being 1.81% for the world and 0.96% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.54% and the current figure is 1.34%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.33%, for the UK, 0.6-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

So about 1.7% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 6.4% of the UK, and 9.4% of the US according to the approximate official estimates, but likely 2.5% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.6% of the UK, and 14.1% of the US.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 15.6% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.28% of a population and still increasing. 53 countries have infection rates over 5%.

As of today, 05/04/2021, in the world there have been 132.4 million cases with about an estimated 11 million active cases, increasing at +2% per day, and 2.87 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.36 million cases and 126,862 deaths. It has an estimated 93,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 31.4 million cases and 569,000 deaths with about 1.23 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.8%. As of 05/04/2020 there have been 130.1 million tests conducted in the UK, about 126.7 million antigen tests and 3.4 million antibody tests, 4.36 million positive of those 85.2 million processed, 5.12%, or 1 in 20 testing positive, 94.85%, 19 out of 20 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 3,000 and 4,700 new cases in the UK a day. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.17%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.91%. About 8.3% of known cases are still active in the world, 2.13% in the UK, 3.92% in the US. My estimate of the likelihood of data for the UK would be about 176,000 deaths and 6.54 million cases, but the mortality range could be anything from 106,000-246,000, 2.18 million cases unnoticed or undetected, so a mortality rate of about 2.69%.

About 650 million people (8.3%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 33 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 17 weeks ago, averaging 318,000 doses a day over this period, but about 180,000 a day at the moment. All of the people in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 20% having both doses, 50% in the UK, 42% in the US, and 15% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 11th August 2021, currently about 90% with 1st dose, and all it’s population by 20th January 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 6th July 2022.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.75% for the world and 1.62% for the UK, the current figures being 1.8% for the world and 0.75% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.54% and the current figure is 1.35%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.33%, for the UK, 0.6-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

So about 1.7% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 6.41% of the UK, and 9.5% of the US according to the approximate official estimates, but likely 2.55% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.62% of the UK, and 14.2% of the US.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 15.9% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.28% of a population and still increasing. 54 countries have infection rates over 5%.

If I was to hazard a guess for the future I would think that the immediate worry would be from the variants endemic to Brazil and India that appears to be at least 50% more infectious, and give 50% higher mortality than the current ones in the UK. Even with the vaccines countries may show an appreciable number of deaths from just these variants. I would think that it likely that a similar sort of variant may come soon out of India. At the moment we still probably have less than 3% of the world exposed to the virus, so we are effectively still in the early stages of it’s development, a combination of natural selection, and probably now vaccinations selecting for overall effectiveness and transmission of the virus. If it transferred around the world, places like New Zealand and Australia might be very badly affected.

As of today, 12/04/2021, in the world there have been 137.3 million cases with about an estimated 12.4 million active cases, increasing at +1.99% per day, and 2.96 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.37 million cases and 127,100 deaths. It has an estimated 68,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 32 million cases and 576,000 deaths with about 1.26 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.8%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.16%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.9%. About 9% of known cases are still active in the world, 1.56% in the UK, 3.94% in the US.

It’s likely 2.6% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.64% of the UK, and 14.5% of the US.

About 700 million people (9%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 36.5 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 18 weeks ago, averaging 320,000 doses a day over this period, but about 405,000 a day at the moment. All of the people in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 25% having both doses, 52% in the UK, 45% in the US, and 17% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 20th August 2021, currently about 91% with 1st dose, and all it’s population by 30th January 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 17th July 2022, and a fourth taking the date to 9th November 2022.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.74% for the world and 1.58% for the UK, the current figures being 1.62% for the world and 0.54% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.53% and the current figure is 1.5%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.33%, for the UK, 0.47-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 16.3% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.28% of a population and still increasing. 56 countries have infection rates over 5%.

New variants are starting to show themselves in various parts of the world with raised mortality and infection rates, some of which seem to be make the current vaccines less effective.

The current trends for the UK are as below:

5th Model with Adjustments for variants
Date	Day	Case Trend	Death Trend
14/04/2021	Wednesday	1746	28
15/04/2021	Thursday	1910	33
16/04/2021	Friday	1991	38
17/04/2021	Saturday	1636	25
18/04/2021	Sunday	1093	4
19/04/2021	Monday	2295	8
20/04/2021	Tuesday	967	8
21/04/2021	Wednesday	1123	18
22/04/2021	Thursday	1229	22
23/04/2021	Friday	1280	24
24/04/2021	Saturday	1052	16
25/04/2021	Sunday	703	3
26/04/2021	Monday	1419	5
27/04/2021	Tuesday	598	5
28/04/2021	Wednesday	695	11
29/04/2021	Thursday	760	13
30/04/2021	Friday	792	15
01/05/2021	Saturday	651	10
02/05/2021	Sunday	435	2
03/05/2021	Monday	806	3
04/05/2021	Tuesday	339	3
05/05/2021	Wednesday	394	6
06/05/2021	Thursday	431	8
07/05/2021	Friday	450	9
08/05/2021	Saturday	369	6
09/05/2021	Sunday	247	1
10/05/2021	Monday	430	2
11/05/2021	Tuesday	181	2
12/05/2021	Wednesday	210	3
13/05/2021	Thursday	230	4
14/05/2021	Friday	240	5
15/05/2021	Saturday	197	3

I must point out that I think it is a bit excessive to claim that lockdowns and restrictions are responsible for the reductions in cases and mortality in countries that have had a large vaccine rollout. For countries that have severely restricted, they have simply kept the numbers down, so unless they have a comprehensive vaccination plan all they can do is continue to restrict for years, but for those who have had a more active and less restrictive society where the infection numbers have been high, a reduction of as much as 75% in mortality has occurred. So the vaccines appear to be highly effective against the current crop of variants. For the UK I would guess it’s probably about 1/3rd lockdown, 2/3rds vaccines. But I wouldn’t be surprised if they were as effective as much as 40% effective against the new next stage variants that are appearing in places like Brazil and India. From the numbers in the US and the Europe as a whole, I wouldn’t be surprised if new major next and subsequent stage variants developed there too. It’s a numbers game, and the world is losing it. It’s becoming more likely that at least a yearly booster vaccine need to be rolled out, possibly a twice yearly one to keep up with the variants.

As of today, 18/04/2021, in the world there have been 142 million cases with about an estimated 13.8 million active cases, increasing at +1.98% per day, and 3.03 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.39 million cases and 127,300 deaths. It has an estimated 53,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 32.4 million cases and 581,000 deaths with about 1.39 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.8%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.12%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.9%. About 9.7% of known cases are still active in the world, 1.21% in the UK, 4.3% in the US.

It’s likely 2.7% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.7% of the UK, and 14.7% of the US.

Some of the vaccination data is getting confusing as countries are re-adjusting their figures. About 880 million people (11%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 35 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 19 weeks ago, averaging 329,000 doses a day over this period, but about 444,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 62% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 20% having both doses, 49% in the UK, 39% in the US, and 18% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 14th August 2021, currently about 85% with 1st dose, and all it’s population by 9th January 2022. It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 12th June 2022, and a fourth taking the date to 12th November 2022.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.75% for the world and 1.57% for the UK, the current figures being 1.99% for the world and 0.68% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.53% and the current figure is 1.33%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.33%, for the UK, 0.47-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 16.5% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.28% of a population and still increasing. 56 countries have infection rates over 5%.

We have a problem in that nearly every country is re-adjusting their figures for new values of truth and what they believe should be true, so comparisons with previous years, or even sometimes months figures is becoming less meaningful. We may not be able to work out what actually happened in 10-100 years time, and there seems to be a lot of leaders and politicians who are counting on this time difference to fog the actions of their governments. We can count on historians beliefs and ideology to interpret these time distant happenings in the future in massively different ways to what actually happened.

We are seeing systems throughout the world being replaced by less robust and resilient ones, and vague and non-stainable policies being implemented, not on need or requirement, but on ruling and wasteful ideologies, many of them called green, but when measured polluting more than what they replace. Hiding ‘green pollution’ has become an art, and is seen as perfectly acceptable as it’s ‘in a good cause.’ Don’t pre-decide and never assume anything is true. Measure and think for yourself are the key concepts here, with a lot of people believing things true if enough people shout it long and loudly.

Too many projects that claim a scientific basis are in fact theories supported by hundreds of theories, so the consensus is positive. If you think that way no alternative is seen as possible or put forward. For something to be regarded as true you need evidence supporting evidence, and a clear pathway or route of cause and effect with no jumps or estimations.

There is a lot in the newspapers and on the TV about ‘Vaccine Nationalism.’ The role of a government, and very few governments are populated by people who are the among the poorest of their populations, to protect the people of their own country first. The globalist movement centres on working hard and becoming affluent, then giving that money to other people, while they do little, plan little, fight and and sequester funds to private bank accounts, and waste it on building up their armaments, prestige projects, and unnecessary and duplicate space programs. A typical dose of say a single shot Johnson & Johnson Covid vaccine is about £7, about 1/50th – 1/10th the cost of an AK47 in Afghanistan (probably about a million still there), so a population of 50 million would cost about £350 million. Things are still just getting started with these vaccines though, and is it correct to use public money to save 100 people abroad at the expense of 5 people dying at home? Not for the people who families contributed for it here and their family members dies. Very few countries, even the poorest spend less than twice this on their military budgets alone.

The other comment often quoted is that giving it to the young and healthy is unnecessary and wasteful. If I was to hazard a guess for the future I would say that each Covid infection adds as much as 10% to the regular cell damage that you would get from ageing. Long Covid is likely to just be simply a more noticeable effect from the disease in some people. Any cell damage is bad as statistically it gives an increased risk of effective errors occurring, and enzyme ACE2 that Covid uses is in a lot of the cells surrounding major organs, including the brain, so catching a full and vaccine unsuppressed infection of it may seem inconsequential at the time, but 10-40 years down the line it will probably be quite significant. I think it likely that we will have Covid for the next couple of decades, and only fully realise the effects and implications in the next one. People may only realise the cost of not fully implementing programs fast when people and their children start dying or developing more serious diseases earlier than expected. I would think that a rough guide would be in the form of an age advancement of 10% of the age at which the virus is caught. So a 18 year old may only get 1.8 years damage whereas an 80 year old would get 8 years damage.

Re-infection would be an unknown quantity as new variants may turn out to be as effective in this respect as catching it for the first time. An 18 year old who catches it, then again at 25 and 45 may incur something like an ageing of 9 years so they may start to develop diseases they would normally get at 54 and on average die at 70, wiping out 100 years of medical advancement.

Another expected development as the Virus continues to bite is the evidence of international contracts being worthless, and order priority and seniority being just ignored when a national organisation or government decides to keep the vaccines for themselves, openly using internal laws to breach EU, international, and world trade ones. The fact that the UK is so poorly insulated from this, having so little domestic production these days, and therefore no or little resiliance due to the considered ‘expense of a backup plan,’ doesn’t bode well, effectively trading ‘cost-cutting’ for lives, probably ending up taking those of the people who made these decisions or their own families. It’s funny how ‘doing stuff on the cheap,’ or ‘at lowest cost’ usually rebounds all the way through society.

As of today, 21/04/2021, in the world there have been 144.4 million cases with about an estimated 14 million active cases, increasing at +1.96% per day, and 3.07 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.4 million cases and 127,327 deaths. It has an estimated 50,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 32.6 million cases and 583,000 deaths with about 1.4 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.79%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.13%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.89%. About 9.7% of known cases are still active in the world, 1.14% in the UK, 4.29% in the US.

It’s likely 2.8% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.7% of the UK, and 14.8% of the US.

About 930 million people (12%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 35 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 19 weeks ago, averaging 331,000 doses a day over this period, but about 488,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 62.5% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 21% having both doses, 51% in the UK, 40% in the US, and 20% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 6th August 2021, currently about 87% with 1st dose, and all it’s population by 19th December 2021 It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 8th May 2022, and a fourth taking the date to 24th September 2022.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.75% for the world and 1.55% for the UK, the current figures being 1.89% for the world and 0.64% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.52% and the current figure is 0.97%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.33%, for the UK, 0.47-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 21/04/2020 there have been 146.8 million tests conducted in the UK, about 143.3 million antigen tests and 3.5 million antibody tests, 4.4 million positive of those 89 million processed, 4.9%, or 1 in 22 testing positive, 95.1%, 21 out of 22 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 1,700 and 2,700 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 16.7% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.28% of a population and still increasing. 61 countries have infection rates over 5%.

From mortality data from Israel and the UK, and post- effective vaccine infections the news is very good, showing that vaccinations by all vaccines point to lower viral loads, so outcomes are better in nearly all cases, and also likely that they are therefore less likely to pass on the infections. The news is not good though for variants, which due to the uncontrolled numbers they are increasing in numbers of major variants that current vaccines may be partially effective against. It’s likely that this is from less than 3% infection of the world so we can probably expect things to get between 10-20 times as worrying as far as variants go, so as the world is still dealing with it locally and piecemeal, I think it likely that 1 or 2 super-variants will occur that may render all current vaccines totally ineffective, and return most countries to square one.

I think it unlikely we we have a major wave this summer in the UK, and would be likely to be OK, possibly until the new year if vaccinations continue at the current rate, but depending on what variants emerge from the ever inceasing numbers in the world, it’s likely that next year will be worse than this one, with current vaccines needing major modifications and updating, probably needing twice yearly boosters for everyone for new variants.

As for other zoonotic viruses coming out of the woodswork, we will have to deal with this when this happens, as this is almost certain, but one virus is enough at the moment as long at it doesn’t sneak under the covid banner unnoticed and unaware.

An updated estimate based on recent figures is as below:

5th Model with Adjustments for variants
Date	Day	Case Trend	Death Trend
23/04/2021	Friday	1952	26
24/04/2021	Saturday	1658	26
25/04/2021	Sunday	1415	8
26/04/2021	Monday	2467	3
27/04/2021	Tuesday	2102	27
28/04/2021	Wednesday	1994	18
29/04/2021	Thursday	2329	15
30/04/2021	Friday	1625	21
01/05/2021	Saturday	1381	22
02/05/2021	Sunday	1178	6
03/05/2021	Monday	1899	3
04/05/2021	Tuesday	1618	21
05/05/2021	Wednesday	1535	14
06/05/2021	Thursday	1793	12
07/05/2021	Friday	1251	16
08/05/2021	Saturday	1063	17
09/05/2021	Sunday	907	5
10/05/2021	Monday	1369	2
11/05/2021	Tuesday	1166	15
12/05/2021	Wednesday	1107	10
13/05/2021	Thursday	1293	8
14/05/2021	Friday	902	12
15/05/2021	Saturday	766	12
16/05/2021	Sunday	654	3
17/05/2021	Monday	919	1
18/05/2021	Tuesday	783	10
19/05/2021	Wednesday	743	7
20/05/2021	Thursday	867	6
21/05/2021	Friday	605	8
22/05/2021	Saturday	514	8
23/05/2021	Sunday	439	2

As of today, 28/04/2021, in the world there have been 150 million cases with about an estimated 14.7 million active cases, increasing at +1.95% per day, and 3.16 million deaths. The UK is now reporting 4.41 million cases and 127,480 deaths. It has an estimated 41,000 known active cases. The US is reporting 33 million cases and 590,000 deaths with about 1.28 million active cases. US mortality from known cases is 1.79%. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 2.11%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 2.89%. About 9.8% of known cases are still active in the world, 0.93% in the UK, 3.88% in the US.

It’s likely 2.9% of the world is known to have been infected so far, 9.73% of the UK, and 15% of the US.

About 1.06 million people (13.6%) have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the world. An estimated 36.5 million people have had at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK since the first one 20 weeks ago, averaging 340,000 doses a day over this period, but about 490,000 a day at the moment. It’s now said that 62.5% in Israel have had one dose of a vaccine, 25% having both doses, 54% in the UK, 43% in the US, and 21% in the EU. If the figures continue at the current rate the UK should have fully vaccinated all of it’s vulnerable population about the 13th August 2021, currently about 88% with 1st dose, and all it’s population by 25th December 2021 It’s likely that a third ‘booster’ jab for new variants will be required by then, taking the date to 13th May 2022, and a fourth taking the date to 29th September 2022.

Backtracked mortality gives a recent average of 1.75% for the world and 1.54% for the UK, the current figures being 1.56% for the world and 1.23% for the UK. If you do the same for the US figures, the average is 1.51% and the current figure is 0.89%. The range for the world based on this figure is 1.12-2.33%, for the UK, 0.47-3.09% and for the US 0.66-3.4%.

As of 28/04/2020 there have been 154.9 million tests conducted in the UK, about 151.3 million antigen tests and 3.6 million antibody tests, 4.41 million positive of those 91.4 million processed, 4.82%, or 1 in 21 testing positive, 95.18%, 20 out of 21 people testing negative. At 80% accuracy that gives a figure between 1,700 and 2,700 new cases in the UK a day.

Highest infection rates for a country is currently 17% and still showing standard increases, highest mortality currently is 0.28% of a population and still increasing. 64 countries have infection rates over 5%.

I think it likely that if countries in the world continue not to vaccinate their populations as a whole, then lockdowns will probably continue for the next decade, the virus for possibly two, and it is just a matter of time before a severe variants gets into those countries. Many countries are still allowing mass superspreader events to take place.

From the recent data for the UK there is a worrying trend that seems to be happening. The figures could just be a blip, but there seems to be evidence of new strains in the UK that are more resistant to the vaccines. It may just be that with the over confidence that everything is getting back to normal, people are relaxing the standards they have previously kept to. Or it may just be due to the increase in testing catching more of the people that were previously overlooked, but if the trend continues it may point to people in the 40-60 age groups becoming more susceptible, rather than mainly the 50+. If it’s an increasing variant trend, this may go onto lower values and affect the 30-50 age groups, and so on in a 1918 scenario. We’ll probably see better from data in the next couple of weeks. If this is happening or likely to happen, then it might be prudent to balance better 1st and 2nd jabs rather than concentrate on completing 1st ones as fast as possible. At the moment the ratio is about 25% 1st jabs against 75% 2nd that seem to come into force about 4 weeks ago. Minimal protection against the virus for as many people as possible, rather than ensuring maximum protection for those deemed at risk, may be the only way to fight this.