Coronavirus Risks 2 (SARS-CoV-2)

I’ve been following the virus for over 37 weeks now. Originally I thought that it would be very limited, but that changed about 36 weeks ago, when the numbers began to rise and we found out more about it. The infected seem to consist of a lot that are in recovery, currently 36% increasing at a rate of 1.1% per day, but does’t seem to push the continuity risk to the average population above around about 3.2% mortality if you contract the disease. Its likely that we are seeing the effects of various mutations in countries rather than a single one. The rate has been pretty consistent since most countries locked down and the effects of this took place since May. The moving average of active and infective cases suggest that the world as a whole under lockdown has an ‘R’ rate of about 1.04, so there is little chance of it being controlled even if a vaccine is found for at least 9 months. Currently the numbers will probably double every 10 weeks and keep on reoccurring or inititiating in each country. Given mutations by numbers, it is probable that any country will need to stay in lockdown and isolate for the next couple of years to avoid it. Since circumstances have not changed much over the last 6 months the likelihood of catching the disease is therefore now probably around 95% as some time, so all that can probably be done is to manage and delay.

Current Status:

This is a continuation of Coronavirus Risks, the original post that was getting a bit long.

As of today, 14/07/2020, in the world there has been 13.4 million cases, increasing at +4% per day, and 580,000 deaths. The UK is reporting 291,000 cases and 45,000 deaths. So about 0.17% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.43% of the UK according to the approximate official estimate. As of 10/07/2020 there have been 12.3 million tests in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, with 291,000, or 2.4% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 4.3% trending to 4.1%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 15.4% trending to 15%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1.4% and a UK one of 5.1% and 40.2 million cases in the world (0.52%) and 873,000 in the UK (1.3%). If you take the difference compared to normal mortality figures from all cases for the UK, the mortality figure is 58.835, or 6.8%, but you need to consider the lesser risk that is inherent with lockdown, so the figure probably is closer to 82,000 directly or indirectly attributable to Covid-19’s existence.

Recently there has been talk of immunity to Covid-19 not lasting, but is this an unexpected or unknown development? The only coronaviruses we are really familiar with are from the common cold. Usually a cold is a combination effect of having one or more viruses at the same time, and of those about 40% are rhinoviruses, 15% coronaviruses, 10% influenza type and maybe 5% adenoviruses. The average number of noticeable colds we catch in our lifetime is about 270 of varying potency. More earlier on and less later, but there’s no real consistency, its pot luck. Some we don’t even really notice, some are pretty bad, but usually not life threatening. Of the coronaviruses we catch virtually all of them are the strains 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1 and we have come to tolerate them over the years, but may have been pretty bad when they first appeared on the scene. Since these are the main types, even if we catch them separately, that numbers a minimum of 10 times for each strain.

It really comes down to how effective is a vaccine? Maybe it is a bit naive to think of it as a permanent solution, when the only viruses that have really spread and had the statistical chance to mutate, are the only ones that have never had anything but a temporary effect? Due to numbers, colds and flu mutate quickly, so how effective is an old vaccine, and how fast do they go out of date?

Small mutations happen all the time and there are probably hundreds now out there, but major mutations are rare, only seemingly likely to happen with larger numbers. Really lethal versions of a known virus are rare, as they are statistically self limiting, but there is a 50% chance of a major one being significantly better or worse especially in low mortality strains. A 30% or 50% mortality kills itself off, but a 2% can go to 0.5% or 5% disguised amongst its lesser siblings. I tried doing a major mutation model for the new virus and it came out like the chart below:

Does anyone claim that as you get older you stop getting bad colds, or they are much better than when we were younger; no. And contrary to popular belief, people do die from complications from colds. We now have a new player on the scene to merge and migrate amongst the others; a fifth elephant. Over time it will change and be tolerated, but it was just wishful thinking based on no evidence that we would be immune after one infection. Our experience with influenza is a good example and things like H1N1 have been around for a lot longer, the 1918 version probably being an early variant where the current social effects caused it to die out quickly.

But we live in a different and very mobile world now compared to then. It’s out and still increasing and spreading, so it may only a matter of time before it returns or you catch it. 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1 have been around since the start of the UK’s Common Cold Unit in 1946, isolating coronaviruses in 1965, and even to this date there is no vaccine for any of them. But on the plus side it could be because they weren’t severe enough for one to be desperately needed.

An estimation of the situation in the UK over the past 7 months would probably look like the chart below:

As of today, 22/07/2020, in the world there have been 15.3 million cases, increasing at +3.85% per day, and 623,000 deaths. The UK is reporting 296,000 cases and 45,500 deaths. So about 0.2% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.44% of the UK according to the approximate official estimate. As of 22/07/2020 there have been 13.8 million tests in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, with 10.4 million results returned and 296,000, or 2.9% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 4% trending to 3.9%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 15.4% trending to 15%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1.3% and a UK one of 5.1% and 46 million cases in the world (0.6%) and 888,000 in the UK (1.3%). If you take the difference compared to normal mortality figures from all cases for the UK, the mortality figure is 58,275, or 6.6%, but you need to consider the lesser risk that is inherent with lockdown, so the figure probably is closer to 80,000 directly or indirectly attributable to Covid-19’s existence.

There is a lot of talk about a second or third wave of the virus but it’s likely given the numbers that they are already in place, unless the world wakes up to the problem and decided to deal with it as a whole, then it’s likely that the time for dealing with it on our terms are at an end. The way the countries are currently trying to deal with it piecemeal, claiming what is a political victory, but not a medical or scientific one, they will probably ensure that sooner or later everybody will catch it, so the idea of herd immunity is decades away. It’s not the end or even near it, but even the most optimistic estimates will mean the average lifespan in the world has got shorter by as much as a decade within a few years after half a century of gains. It wouldn’t be out of order in calling Covid-19 one of the first of a line of ‘Pandora Viruses,’ that mankind has unknowingly unleashed by our social habits.

As of today, 30/07/2020, in the world there have been 17.3 million cases, increasing at +3.85% per day, and 672,000 deaths. The UK is reporting 302,000 cases and 46,000 deaths. So about 0.22% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.45% of the UK according to the approximate official estimate. As of 30/07/2020 there have been 16 million tests in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, with 11.5 million results returned and 302,000, or 2.6% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 4% trending to 3.9%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 15.2% trending to 14.8%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1.3% and a UK one of 5.1% and 52 million cases in the world (0.67%) and 906,000 in the UK (1.4%). If you take the difference compared to normal mortality figures from all cases for the UK, the mortality figure is around 62,000, or 6.8%, but you need to consider the lesser risk that is inherent with lockdown, so the figure probably is closer to 76,000 directly or indirectly attributable to Covid-19’s existence.

There has been a worrying sign that the wave is returning to a number of countries, and the UK is experiencing a bottoming out of the infection rate and starting to show signs of it reappearing. During the last week the risk factor for meeting a person in the UK who has the disease has increased marginally, but is nowhere near the risk in mid-May and is at a level seen at the end of March. There is much made of a second wave, but we are still experiencing the first wave that is still reverberating around various countries, having never gone away. The large numbers still suggest that the significant mutations have already started to appear, but not made themselves effectively known in the populations yet. The primary infection has reduced to an estimated effective saturation point at the start of December with a possible 2nd version being noticeable 6 months after this, reaching saturation 10 months later, a 3rd version taking us into mid-2022.

Qatar has an recorded infection rate of 39,340 per million people, or 3.9% of the entire population, and is still even with lockdown continuing to have a multiple hundred new infection rate. The rate in the UK was 0.46% so the view that herd immunity was or is close in the UK isn’t based on any reliable evidence or facts, more just wishful thinking and use of models designed to give positive results.

As of today, 03/08/2020, in the world there have been 18.4 million cases, increasing at +3.7% per day, and 695,000 deaths. The UK is reporting 306,000 cases and 46,200 deaths. So about 0.24% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.46% of the UK according to the approximate official estimate. As of 03/08/2020 there have been 16.7 million tests in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, with 12.2 million results returned and 306,000, or 2.5% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 3.9% trending to 3.7%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 15% trending to 14.8%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1.3% and a UK one of 5% and 55 million cases in the world (0.7%) and 918,000 in the UK (1.4%). If you take the difference compared to normal mortality figures from all cases for the UK, the mortality figure is around 63,000, or 6.9%, but you need to consider the lesser risk that is inherent with lockdown, so the figure probably is closer to 77,000 directly or indirectly attributable to Covid-19’s existence. This is a figure thats constantly being recalculated according to latest changes in reporting and data that is made available, so is not a linear increase.

In the world the infection has gone from a handful of cases to 18.4 million in the space of 10-11 months with little signs of slowing down at present. Some countries have had temporary and localised victories, but to trade on the world market they need to allow the world in, and go out into the world.

As of today, 05/08/2020, in the world there have been 18.8 million cases, increasing at +3.65% per day, and 707,000 deaths. The UK is reporting 307,000 cases and 46,364 deaths. So about 0.24% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.46% of the UK according to the approximate official estimates. As of 05/08/2020 there have been 17.2 million tests in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, with 12.6 million results returned and 307,000, or 2.4% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 3.8% trending to 3.6%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 15% trending to 14.8%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1.3% and a UK one of 5% and 57 million cases in the world (0.7%) and 921,000 in the UK (1.4%). If you take the difference compared to normal mortality figures from all cases for the UK, the mortality figure is around 63,000, or 6.9%, but you need to consider the lesser risk that is inherent with lockdown, so the figure probably is closer to 77,220 directly or indirectly attributable to Covid-19’s existence.

At best a vaccine is about 6 months away, so at current rates of increase this would suggest that after this time there would be about 2 billion cases, one year maybe worldwide. There are signs of more major mutations appearing, but it is down to chance and numbers. The bigger the numbers infected the more likely a second, third or subsequent serious mutation may occur. This may or may not be cured or prevented by a vaccine for the first, but if one is perfected, then another effective vaccine would be quicker, but how quick? If it only took 6 months then we could be in a position of one being available for production at the moment, so production and distribution of the new version could take 3-6 months. With an effective vaccine a guess would be a reduction in world longevity of 5 years, without one, probably 10 years for the next few decades, maybe as long as a century.

The current state of the UK is probably about a million people have had the disease, and currently 50,000 probably have it and are infectious with the current mutation, so about 1 in 1,400 people will infect at least 1 other person on average every day. The current level of distancing, mask wear and precautions if observed should keep it to around this level, so a likely level of new cases would probably be around 500,000 within the next year, or 5,000 serious cases at any one time.

As of today, 15/08/2020, in the world there have been 21.5 million cases, increasing at +3.54% per day, and 766,000 deaths. The UK is now reporting 317,000 cases and 41,361 deaths. It has an estimated 20,000 known active cases. So about 0.28% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.47% of the UK according to the approximate official estimates. As of 15/08/2020 there have been 14.3 million tests returned in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, and 317,000, or 2.2% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 3.5% trending to 3.5%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 13%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1.1% and a UK one of 4.3% and 65 million cases in the world (0.8%) and 951,000 in the UK (1.4%). Using a similar unknown to known cases there are probably 60,000 people currently infectious in the UK. If you take the difference compared to normal mortality figures from all cases for the UK, the mortality figure is around 63,000, or 6.9%, but you need to consider the lesser risk that is inherent with lockdown and restrictions, so the figure probably is closer to 77,500 directly or indirectly attributable to Covid-19’s existence. Comparing records from the most affected countries and the lack of reliable information from others due to intent, or simply not having the system in place to assess the figures, together with the base level of mortality that is levelling off a to a figure of 3.5%, mortality levels overall would be a reasonable one to take for overstretched medical assistence of 3.5% overall for cases of infection.

What is evident is that every country is playing around with the interpretation of the statistics; what constitutes estimated cases, and who dies from what, so in every country we are seeing people coming back to life when the figures are adjusted for acceptability. Similarly it seems that models are now taking over from actual events as a source of information about cases, the facts being adjusted to fit the models.

If you look at cases generally the increase is still pretty constant throughout the world, many countries having a ‘second wave.’ when the first has not finished or even got substantially into its stride. The UK is showing signs of resurgence and is now in a position that it was about 5 weeks ago. The advantage is that distancing and the wearing of masks have slowed down the increase, whereas in countries that do not do this the increase is similar to the UK in March, constantly increasing. I’m still worried that due to the numbers throughout the world that leads to large numbers of mutations, any vaccine that may be developed only being partially effective before it becomes obsolete, and that large scale manufacture may be out of date as soon as they are delivered, the virus having moved on, similar to a flu vaccine of 5-10 years ago being used to treat the current mutation. then there is the possibility of synchronous mutations where given a set of circumstances similar exposure and events cause similar situations to occur. In evolution convergent development is well known.

As of today, 01/09/2020, in the world there have been 25.6 million cases, increasing at +3.35% per day, and 855,000 deaths. The UK is now reporting 336,000 cases and 41,500 deaths. It has an estimated 20,000 known active cases. So about 0.33% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.5% of the UK according to the approximate official estimates. As of 26/08/2020 there have been 16.3 million tests returned in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, and 336,000, or 2.1% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 3.3% trending to 3.2%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 12.4%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1.1% and a UK one of 4.1% and 77 million cases in the world (1%) and 1 million in the UK (1.5%). Using a similar unknown to known cases there are probably 60,000 people currently infectious in the UK. If you take the difference compared to normal mortality figures from all cases for the UK, the mortality figure is probably around 65,300, or 6.9%, but you need to consider the lesser risk that is inherent with lockdown and restrictions, so the figure probably is closer to 78,100 directly or indirectly attributable to Covid-19’s existence, not necessarily dying from the disease directly. Comparing records from the most affected countries and the lack of reliable information from others due to intent, or simply not having the system in place to assess the figures, together with the base level of mortality that is levelling off a to a figure of 3.4%, mortality levels overall would be a reasonable one to take for overstretched medical assistance of 3.4% overall for cases of infection.

A number of countries seem to have ‘adjusted’ their figures to present a more optimistic position than the likeliest one. Some started off doing this and ‘skim’ the figures. The true or likelist position of what happened only being available when the figures are revisited in 10 years time when the current government is not in power. The position could be a lot worse in most cases, for example, the UK could have had as many as 106,500 deaths that should be reportably from the disease, the lowest being 47,200, the likeliest being 58,000, reporting a figure of 41,501, having reduced the number recently via ‘recalculations.’ It’s likely that this is due to reporting ‘best assumption’ rather than likeliest assumption comparisons. I feel there seems to be a lot of political interfering with the recording and analysis of figures in most countries, basically a minister saying ‘I’m not happy with the figures you’ve given, take them away and make or recalculate them to look better.’ Statistics is the science of calculating and presenting data in a form that gives you the best indication of the situation from the data available, good, bad, or indifferent. To do otherwise is propaganda, not statistics, and anybody who does otherwise is a propagandist, not a statistician or scientist. It also means that accurate data is suppressed, giving incorrect or misleading information in which its used to try to make good decisions, so the perpetrators could quite possibly have blood on their hands.

We have a few countries that seem to have concentrations of cases that give some indication of the potential infection rates that may happen. Qatar has a recorded level of 4.26% of the population having been infected, Bahrain 3.16%. Other large countries have recorded about 2% and the UK is currently 0.5%. Unless the figures are based on different strains it suggests that the maximum known to unknown cases rate is 1:23 I am still of the opinion that we probably have about 3 times the number of unknown cases as known, and that 3 times that number have been exposed but not above a threshold to infect. The calculated proportions from world statistics seem to indicate 2.83 and 3.4, so 3 for both would probably be a general indicator and one to use for general estimations.

As of today, 05/09/2020, in the world there have been 26.8 million cases, increasing at +3.3% per day, and 880,000 deaths. The UK is now reporting 342,000 cases and 41,500 deaths. It has an estimated 20,000 known active cases. So about 0.33% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.5% of the UK according to the approximate official estimates. As of 04/09/2020 there have been 17.7 million tests returned in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, and 342,000, or 1.9% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 3.3% trending to 3.2%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 12.1%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1.1% and a UK one of 4% and 80 million cases in the world (1%) and 1 million in the UK (1.5%). Using a similar unknown to known cases there are probably 60,000 people currently infectious in the UK. If you take the difference compared to normal mortality figures from all cases for the UK, the mortality figure is probably around 65,300, or 6.8%, but you need to consider the lesser risk that is inherent with lockdown and restrictions, so the figure probably is closer to 78,700 directly or indirectly attributable to Covid-19’s existence, not necessarily dying from the disease directly. In the UK the risk has risen so that it is probably somewhere around that of the last week in June, and rising around 2/3rds of the rate it was decreasing prior to that.

With the current restrictions, mask wear and distancing we are probably unlikely to see the dramatic increases that were experienced in April, but more of a continuous slow increase, possibly reaching similar numbers in 6 months rather than over 1. With the looming economic depression and reallocation of less profitable or immediate medical and drug resources, it’s unlikely that a vaccine will be available for general and widespread use for something like 12 months, and then it may be down to effectiveness against cost and local rather than the current structures of production. It’s likely that governments will weigh up the cost to their own economies and sequester or militarise production, so it would probably be best for countries to arrange resources for local output rather than depending on honoured contracts. There is a risk, and a substantial one, especially to the old and infirm, but a lot is based on anxiety in society rather than assessing, and proportionate response.

For the world, it’s likely that the numbers will first reach their peak in January, subsequent strains possibly taking it to September 2021 and September 2022.

As of today, 07/09/2020, in the world there have been 27.3 million cases, increasing at +3.3% per day, and 888,000 deaths. The UK is now reporting 347,000 cases and 41,500 deaths. It has an estimated 20,000 known active cases. So about 0.33% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.5% of the UK according to the approximate official estimates. As of 06/09/2020 there have been 17.6 million tests returned in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, and 347,000, or 1.9% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 3.3% trending to 3.2%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 12.1%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1.1% and a UK one of 4% and 82 million cases in the world (1%) and 1 million in the UK (1.5%). Using a similar unknown to known cases there are probably 60,000 people currently infectious in the UK. If you take the difference compared to normal mortality figures from all cases for the UK, the mortality figure is probably around 65,300, or 6.8%, but you need to consider the lesser risk that is inherent with lockdown and restrictions, so the figure probably is closer to 78,700 directly or indirectly attributable to Covid-19’s existence, not necessarily dying from the disease directly. In the UK the risk has risen so that it is probably somewhere around that of the last week in June, and rising around 2/3rds of the rate it was decreasing prior to that. UK Risk level is about the end of the 3rd week in June

In the world I have tried to produce a status as to the current condition, so I have produce the chart below:

The chart shows the mortality rate from when figures became more ‘reliable.’ There was a decrease early on that was probably down to the Chinese suppression of it at the source, and started to rise probably comparible to its expansion into countries with a more elderly demographic. As those countries ‘locked down’ the mortality became less, it is now expanding mainly into countries with a lower age demographic and poorer health care, but still increasing consistently in number of active cases (2.8% per day), and deaths in proportion to that part of the populations that are at risk, mainly the over 50’s. I hope to work out an expansion rate/mortality rate against demographic infiltration graphic if work permits. I am still not happy with my model of expansion, age and medical demographics against blood grouping and estimated population prior exposures, mobility and social structure to release it just yet and hold it up to ridicule, but it does follow the situtation in the world reasonably closely.

As of today, 10/09/2020, in the world there have been 28.2 million cases, increasing at +3.2% per day, and 911,000 deaths. The UK is now reporting 358,000 cases and 41,600 deaths. It has an estimated 20,000 known active cases. So about 0.36% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.53% of the UK according to the approximate official estimates. As of 10/09/2020 there have been 17.6 million tests returned in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, and 358,000, or 2% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 3.3% trending to 3.2%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 11.6%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1.1% and a UK one of 3.9% and 85 million cases in the world (1.1%) and 1.1 million in the UK (1.6%). Using a similar unknown to known cases there are probably 60,000 people currently infectious in the UK. If you take figures for what mortality was expected in the UK this year, together with the lower personal risk that lockdown produced, the number expect should be around 333,162 deaths during the period 01/01/2020-28/08/2020. The actual figure was 417,096, a difference of 83,934, the last week recorded, 28/08/2020, showing about 113 people a day dying more than average.

As of today, 15/09/2020, in the world there have been 29.6 million cases, increasing at +3.2% per day, and 936,000 deaths. The UK is now reporting 374,000 cases and 41,700 deaths. It has an estimated 20,000 known active cases. So about 0.36% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.53% of the UK according to the approximate official estimates. As of 15/09/2020 there have been 20.3 million tests returned in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, and 374,000, or 1.8% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 3.3% trending to 3.2%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 11.6%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1.1% and a UK one of 3.9% and 89 million cases in the world (1.1%) and 1.12 million in the UK (1.6%).

The latest figures from the ONS are very unusual, showing reduced mortality across both sexes and all ages against what is expected for this time of year. The curent risk in the UK is about that for the first week in June. The figures seem to conform consistently to 16% of the normal returns not being recorded, except in London and the North. For the world I still think it likely that about 25th September it will reach 1 million reported deaths.

As of today, 18/09/2020, in the world there have been 30.6 million cases, increasing at +3.2% per day, and 954,000 deaths. The UK is now reporting 386,000 cases and 41,700 deaths. It has an estimated 20,000 known active cases. So about 0.39% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.57% of the UK according to the approximate official estimates. As of 18/09/2020 there have been 18 million tests returned in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, and 386,000, or 2.1% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 3.3% trending to 3.2%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 10.8%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1.1% and a UK one of 3.6% and 92 million cases in the world (1.2%) and 1.16 million in the UK (1.7%).

Looking at data and what has happened in the UK it seems the offices are playing a game of semantics, redefining what constitutes a Covid-19 related death. The reduction by 5,000 cases when mortality rates above normal for this time of year are suggesting additional deaths should be counted, in a lot of ways give the impression that ministers weren’t happy with the staistics and said ‘I won’t accept these figures, go away and interpret them so they look better.’ When a government starts messing around with facts you know they aren’t to be trusted or believed in anything else.

We all will die at some time. It will almost certainly be from pnuemonia and heart failure. In rare cases it’s not. Everything; cancer, leukemia, influenza, heart attacks, non-instant accidents. Definition: If something happens that advances that death ahead of the time that would normally happen, then that is the new cause. All the rest is contributory. At this time in the year around 372,000 in the UK would have normally died. The figure that actually did is 425,000, a difference of 53,000 ignoring the reduced deaths that would have happened because of lockdown, and this week ending 15/09/2020 looks a bit suspect. It’s interesting that the groups that are not at real risk from Covid-19, 15-30 years old, showed a markedly reduced level of mortality during lockdown by as much as half. So this would also be a ‘missing addition’ under normal circumstances. Again, messing with the figures to make them look better, not to represent the true situation. Lie, damn lies, and politically altered statistics.

As of today, 23/09/2020, in the world there have been 32 million cases, increasing at +3.1% per day, and 980,000 deaths. The UK is now reporting 410,000 cases and 42,000 deaths. It has an estimated 20,000 known active cases. So about 0.41% of the world is known to be infected so far, 0.6% of the UK according to the approximate official estimates. As of 23/09/2020 there have been 19 million tests returned in the UK in hospitals or of key workers, and 409,700, or 2.2% testing positive. World Mortality based on the approximate official estimate of known cases is 3.1% trending to 3%. but UK mortality based on estimates of approved recorded figures is 10.2%. On an estimated 2:1 unknown to known that works out to a world mortality figure of 1% and a UK one of 3.4% and 96 million cases in the world (1.2%) and 1.16 million in the UK (1.8%).

The UK mortality statistics have returned to a more normal figure and it’s probably some cases were included in the previous and after figures, so likely just down to the postponed holiday season, some getting in figures early and others not processing until they were back. It would be bad if there was no procedure for retrospective adjustments other than directed readjustments, and they just drop out the system. All these changes have confused matters, so we wait again until next week to get even an adequate estimate.

One thing I have noticed is that everywhere systems and procedures are slowly breaking down, with cases of concern being relegated to the same level as routine. Maybe it’s just in my area, but we seem to be slowly going into a level of ‘medicine light,’ with actual risk taking second place to potential risk. Preventitive treatments slowly giving way to corrective treatments. Other areas such as maintenance seems to be also on these ‘light schedules,’ with things not being looked at until they actually go wrong. In a complicated interdependent and interconnected society it may be likely to produce ‘cascade failures’ through the systems. At what stage will a domino tip beyond practical recovery?