Covid-19, a Wolf at the Door

There isn’t a ‘correct’ way of dealing with it as very few countries or areas have and are. All countries and areas underplay the disease in some way and most are now busy extolling the size of their fish that weren’t eaten by sharks. Some doing nothing, others restricting into damage, some having local and temporary success and thinking the problem is over and the sharks are gone.

But cases in the world are increasing, and lately starting to accelerate again. My current worry with how the disease is progressing, is that with all the cases now and happening in the world at an increasing rate, the scenario for a ‘next variant’ developing is becoming more probable. It’s still a statistical problem, and a ‘1918 scenario’ or model is worryingly developing. The world population in 1918 was about 1.8 billion, now 7.8 billion, and the mortality rate appears similar to Covid-19 for the same distribution spread, so the consequences are obvious.

Experts are divided by what happened for so many reasons, mainly because last time this it was in a different world that was 100 years ago, and only known about from what their textbooks and very limited records say. It lasted for just over 2 years with little restriction and little normal mobility, and Covid-19 is roughly 7 months old and restricted in a fairly mobile world.

The numbers have come down a lot due to social distancing, facemasks and hygiene, so this is something that needs to continue for a long time, probably at least until the end of the year. But we also need things to start running again with care. For countries and areas where the numbers have currently dropped to a bearable level they need to use the time to put in place pandemic sustainable infrastructures and organisation, ready for low infection rates, for those that aren’t they need to restrict and reduce to lower infection rates.

Countries vary by demographic, and a failure in a large or dense population may in fact turn out to be more of a success that is in small or low-density population.

Countries that are wealthy need to help countries that are not to get things under control. This idea of ‘I’m alright Jack,’ will world right up until the time it arrives back at your door again, and the lack of help then increases the chances of it doing so later. The wolf was at the door and its currently turned to other doors, so we need to help others to help ourselves before its finished feasting elsewhere, and coming back stronger having done so.

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