The Climate is Changing

The climate is changing and this change is increasing whatever you have decided is the cause. The figures can’t lie, and there are scientists who have interpreted the data and chosen it being both for and against it being man made. The increase suggests yes, the unvarying yearly cycles say no. The consensus is that it is man made, but there is a difference between consensus and fact. Nobody knows for sure, except those who believe it is true, and those that believe it isn’t, and belief and fact are quite often the same right up until the point they’re proven wrong.

If it is true we need to do something about it, not just pay lip service to a lot of self-interested industrialists and business people who are making as much ‘green’ pollution as they were making ‘non-green’ pollution before.

But I do feel that there are a lot of modern scientists who are straying into the lands of science and the ‘rigidly defined areas of doubt and uncertainty’ with their banners, shouting ‘flock to me my followers, for I have the one true belief,’ and the likeminded are rushing in.

It’s an interesting fact that currently with my binoculars I can see farther than I have seen for the past 30 years. That the brown tinge over a number of cities is not there, and not only can I see distant hills clearly now, but faintly at a lighter tinge, hills that I saw never there before.

The evidence:

If you follow the levels of various gasses in the world you see a consistent pattern.

At the moment CO2 is about 416.85PPM having risen from an estimated low of 275.3PPM in 1620. In history the level has been as high as 15,000PPM, but was about 7,000PPM at the time of the dinosaurs.

The pattern is a constant change from September to May, May being consistently without change about 10PPM higher than September, about an extra 50 billion tonnes worth, and this same pattern has been shown consistently every year since 1958 when these records began. Before then all the figures are estimates. There have been spikes, the biggest in 2018 when CO2 on 5th May spiked +9.4PPM within 4 days, about 47 billion tonnes worth, and disappeared after 1 day.

This is a consistent pattern that has not altered, and you can nearly match the progress any year with the same consistent shape of graph for any previously recorded year, except at a slightly higher level . Inside there is also another 2PPM variation 2-week cycle.

This same cycle has repeated this year even though production of CO2, methane and Oxides of Nitrogen have been drastically reduced by world industries in the last 6 months.

Methane levels go consistently from a low in July to a peak in November, a difference of about 16PPB that start about 1730 with 770PPB, to a 1874PPB level today. This has shown no spikes.

Oxides of Nitrogen levels have a similar curve from 264PPB in 1630 to 333PPB today, with a low in July and a high in January ranging by 0.7PPB. Again this has shown no spikes.

Oxygen, the chemical we breathe also follows a similar path from a low in April to a high in August, varying by a 1/20th of a percent, about the same proportion as our total CO2 content, and recently has been decreasing, about a 1/20th of a percent in the past 30 years. Since records began in 1991 It is currently about 20%, but 1 billion years ago it was about 4% increasing in steps to 400 million years ago at 30%, reducing to our current level about 200 million years ago, increasing again to 23% 100 million years ago. This is from estimated data but there is no reason we know to doubt the figures. True, this is estimated data, but from reasonably consistent estimates from various sources.

The more oxygen there is the more combustion, the less the less combustion, but things haven’t changed enought to have that much effect.

But as they were not from laboratory conditions, they can vary as much as the assumptions used to produce the equivalences, so you can rely on anything above an increasing error the farther you go back. 5%, 50 years ago to 500% a billion years ago. We weren’t there, so claiming exactness is personal interpretation and belief.

But all these cycles vary by the time of year, especially CO2, and they’re getting worse.

This data was taken from various sources, the main one being NOAA.

If you want to study graphs,

Is good, although most data before 1990 is estimated, as it was not directly recorded not fact, except CO2 from 1959 at Moana Loa.

Measurements at the South Pole were mainly abandoned until about the 1970’s that showed an increase from 310ppm in about 1955 to 380ppm in 2007, a rise of 22.6% in 52 years.

The comparable Moana Loa records for this period are 313PPM to 382PPM, a rise of 22.2% and consistent with this.

As I see it there are 4 possibilities. 1. That it is man made, 2. That it is not man made. 3 That we can do something about it. 4. That we can’t do anything about it.

If 1 and 3 are true then we need to go in the right direction to avert disaster, not just pay lip service to a lot of self-interested industrialists and business people who are making as much ‘green’ pollution or more as they were making ‘non-green’ pollution before.

If anything else is true 1 & 4, 2 & 3 or 2 & 4 then we are in trouble and nobody is doing anything about it or preparing for it.

We still have the problem of if we can do anything about it. If we can’t then nobody is planning or preparing for that scenario, so all the things we are doing can at best only slow down the inevitable.
If we can, we need to make sure what we are doing will change it.
We need to have some backup plan just in case, and no government has any plans for this eventuality. Everything is 100% based on one possibility.
We are relying on man-made CO2 being the sole problem and only mover. If it’s not we’re stuffed.
Survival is not about being a leftist or tory, it’s about staying alive, as a dead leftist is the same as a dead tory, a dead republican is the same as a dead democrat.
I agree that whatever is happening won’t kill everybody off, and it’s not the end as we have had 20 times the CO2 levels while animal life was around, but the US or UK will suffer dire consequences, and both may fail completely because of it. Covid-19 hasn’t really taken off yet, being still in its first stages, and the world is having major effects from what is really such a minor problem. How would UK or US business people go on with their daily business if everybody had to move 500 miles north over summer, or there were no UK or US effectively in place.
Something happened between the 5th and 10th May 2018 that caused a rise of CO2 from 409.32 PPM to 418.74PPM within a period of 4 days when the CO2 level was at its peak. It then dropped to 410.1PPM within a day and resumed the cycle with a bit of an unusual trough of 403.97 on September 8th. This was a variation of 14.77PPM or 3.7% in one year. There was a similar spike on 27th April 2017, with a trough variation of 10.37PPM.
As there doesn’t seem to be any data other than Moana Loa measuring CO2 constantly I’ve been trying to find out if it was just local and therefore probably volcanic.
If something can change CO2 levels so fast, and they can recover so fast, CO2 is unlikely to be in the driving seat, more of an effect of something else. If it’s volcanic, then how localised was it, and volcanic CO2 may be massively underestimated. No successful business operates without some form of backup or insurance. The only ones that do usually fail, as they quite often don’t check up on other things too, claiming ‘how was I to know this would happen?’ No backup plan, no future.

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