Data Manipulation

I think it will only be in a couple of year’s time that we find out what happened in each country as far as Covid-19 goes. Many governments have been making ‘adjustments’ to their figures and reporting with curious events like countries having hundreds of new cases one day and next to no cases following that. Other things like having hundreds of people dying one day and none from a single point, and the even curiouser event of a couple of thousand people suddenly coming back to life. This has happened now a number of times. Suppression of the disease is a priority, but it appears suppression of unacceptable data comes second place. There a quite a few cases now coming out of ‘instructions’ to people reportering, and implications for them if the figures aren’t acceptable.

Every country has their own opinion on what constitutes a death from Covid-19, some only counting it if legal level proof can be determined, not a death unless beyond a shadow of a doubt, others counting likely deaths from it, and other counting any death with a positive result.

But there can be one thing that is sure; the figures are being manipulated by governments all around the world for them to appear in a better light, and the ruling governments status seems to be more important than the destruction and lack of knowledge that will occur from misrepresenting them. Some are because they just don’t know, or haven’t the structure in place to work them out, but other know and find their figures politically objectionable, preferring to depress them to gain advantage with their people and against other countries.

Data is what separates science from superstition.

It’s interesting that the Malmo area has had fewer deaths than Stockholm. It could be that they simply have fewer cases there, and that Malmo has a distributed population of 317,000 and Stockholm has a condensed population of a million. if a unknown to known ratio of 2:1 is correct then its still early days and only 1/3rd of a percent of the world have contracted it. 5:1 and still less than one percent.

New York has a population of 19.5 million, 405,000 positive cases, has done 3 million tests and 31,000 have died.

This means the number of positives is 13% of tests from people who are suspected of having it. 15% of the population has been tested, again from those who are suspected of having it, so it’s probably much higher than the general population.

But going on this highest ratio of 13% being true, of the 19.5 million, that works out to a maximum of 2.5 million cases, or a maximum figure of unknown to known figure of 5:1. It also then means that mortality is a minimum of 1.2% of anybody who gets it, or about 1 in 83 people.

On the other hand if the 2:1 ratio is true it doubles to 2.4% or about 1 in 41 people.

Best results don’t come from wishful thinking. I’ve been following this epidemic continuously for 24 weeks now and the UK’s figures are typical of a country under lockdown compared to something like Brazil or Mexico. I expected the UK’s scenario since the middle of January. Sweden and Norway have a completely different demographic than the UK, and they are showing typical results from that. There is no ‘correct’ approach, as until if a vaccine or effective treatment is found, all that can be done is delay. It may turn out that lockdown was wrong. Some countries are unwilling to damage their economy in any way to do this, and are willing to accept collateral deaths. Following it continuously it’s obvious that various countries are manipulating their figures. It’s a problem of proving who is doing this and by how much, as you would need have free direct access to that country and it’s information, but there are a lot of very suspicious numbers and facts take second place when politicians are under pressure or will look bad. As somebody else also said we will probably only know who was doing this in a couple of years time unless they bury the figures.

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